political parties, ideology and the u.s....
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POLITICAL PARTIES,IDEOLOGY AND
THE U.S. ECONOMY
May 4, 2012Hans Noel
Georgetown University
POLITICAL PARTIES,IDEOLOGY AND
THE U.S. ECONOMY
I. U.S. Party SystemIdeological Alignment: “Polarization”
II. The Economy and the Party System
PARTY SYSTEMS
House of Representatives
United States Congress Japanese Diet
House of Representatives
R
RD
D
LDP
DPJ
LDP
DPJ
Senate House of Councillors
Duverger’s Law: “The simple-majority single-ballot system favors the two-party system”
Lijphart 1999
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE2008
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Top Two Candidate’s Performance in U.S. Presidential Elections
Ele
cto
ral
Vo
te
Popular Vote
WINNERS
LOSERS
BIG-TENT PARTIESParties are like a bundle of sticks. A bundle is stronger than an individual stick
What holds that bundle together?
Who is in the bundle, and who is excluded (or in the other bundle)?
PARTY POLARIZATION
PARTY POLARIZATION
-1
0
1
1865 1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
Republicans
Democrats
House Party Medians by Congress
GREATER PARTY COHESION
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Par
ty C
ohes
ion
on P
arty
Vot
es
DemocratsRepublicans
IDEOLOGICAL SORTING
0
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.7
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004
Correlation of Ideology and Party ID among Voters
American National Election Study
PARTISAN ECONOMICS
Partisan Biases in Economic Accountability
Larry M. Bartels, Princeton University My talk will be based on the following chapter from a forthcoming book. The chapter refers to a previous finding, Figure 2.1, which is reproduced here.
Figure 2.1Income Growth by Income Level under Democratic
and Republican Presidents, 1948-2005
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Income percentile
Ave
rage
ann
ual g
row
th in
real
inco
me
(%)
Democrats Republicans
Bartels 2008
AGENDA CONTROL
MAJORITY PARTY MINORITY PARTY
FLO
OR
MED
IAN
MA
JOR
ITY
MED
IAN
MIN
OR
ITY
MED
IAN
PARTY REPRESENTSTHESE PEOPLE }
Negative Agenda Power: A good party leader who controls the agenda will never let a bill come to a vote if their party disagrees on it.
AGENDA CONTROL
MAJORITY PARTY MINORITY PARTY
FLO
OR
MED
IAN
MA
JOR
ITY
MED
IAN
Negative Agenda Power: A good party leader who controls the agenda will never let a bill come to a vote if their party disagrees on it.
AGENDA CONTROL
MAJORITY PARTY MINORITY PARTY
PARTY REPRESENTSTHESE PEOPLE }
Negative Agenda Power: A good party leader who controls the agenda will never let a bill come to a vote if their party disagrees on it.
NOT HAPPY
EASIER WITH POLARIZATION
MAJORITY PARTY MINORITY PARTY
DIVIDED GOVERNMENTUnited States Congress
House of Representatives
R
RD
D
Senate
PresidentD
ECONOMY AS CAUSE
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
Presidential Vote vs. Economy, 1948-2008
% Change in RDI
Incu
mbe
nt's
Sha
re o
f Tw
o-P
arty
Vot
e
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
20002004
2008
IDEOLOGY AS CAUSE
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
Presidential Vote vs. Ideology, 1948-2008
Incumbent's Relative Moderation
Incu
mbe
nt P
arty
's S
hare
of T
wo-
Par
ty V
ote
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
20002004