polish – spanish workshop w produkcji i...polish – spanish workshop the challengesand futureof...

Polish – Spanish workshop

The challenges and future of coal industry in the EUCentral Mining Institute, Katowice, Poland, 9 – 10 May 2018

Trends in coal production and consumption in the World, the European Union and Poland

Janusz OlszowskiPresident, Polish Mining Chamber of Industry and Commerce

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2Janusz Olszowski – Polish Mining Chamber of Industry and Commerce


Hard coal production in the World- mln t -

3

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

1913 1937 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017

1 21

6

1 31

0

1 43

5

1 99

1

2 20

8

2 81

0 3 55

6

3 63

9

4 07

3 5

124

7 21

2

7 00

0

6 70

0

690

0

mln

ton

Source: Industrial Development Agency S.A. Katowice Branch

Janusz Olszowski – Polish Mining Chamber of Industry and Commerce


4

Lignite production in the World- mln t -

Source: Central Statistical Office; Statista – The portal for statistics - https://www.statista.com

1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Lignite production 937,5 933,9 976,7 934,4 1 027,3 1 040,6 1 032,9 841,2 890,6 905,7 854,3 837,6 828,7 807,3

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1 000,0

1 200,0

mln

ton



Change in hard coal production in 2017compared to 2016

- mln t -

5Source:VDKI, 2017

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-16 1 -6 -3

21

12

22

1

47

08

Hard coal production in the World in 2017.: 6,9 bln ton



Structure of primary energy consumption in the World in 2016

6

Oil33%

Coal28%

Natural gas24%

Hydro7%

Nuclear5%

RES3%

Source: International steam coal market; Z.Grudziński; Scientific bulletins IGSMiE PAN, 2017



7Source: EURACOAL

- share 2015- share 2000

Australia

World consumption of hard coalThe share of the continents: 2000 and 2015



8Source: Presentation of IEA World Energy Outlook 2016, London, 16 November 2016

Coal demand in key regions of the world by 2040 / Mtce/

Change 2014 – 2040:- Decreasing demand- Increasing demand

China

USA

India

EU

South-East Asia

On balance, demand for coal will increase by approx. 200 Mtce



Projections of changes in demand for steam coal until 2022 /Mln tons/

9Źródło: World Energy Outlook 2017-IEA



Major trends in the seaborne coal trade. Flows in 2017: 1.1 billion tons

10Source: VDKI

USA88

Canada

28

1Venezuela

Colombia83.2

Poland

Russia189

China8

South Africa83.1

Australia

379

to Far Eastfrom Canada

Indonesia364

3



Structure of primary energy consumption in the EU28 in 2016

12

Oil37%

Coal15%

Natural gas23%

Hydro5%

Nuclear12%

RES8%

Source: International steam coal market; Z.Grudziński; Scientific bulletins- IGSMiE PAN, 2017



13

Energy mix for EU electricity generation, 2016

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

EU28Estonia

Poland

Czech RepublicBulgaria

Germany

Netherlands

Greece

Slovenia

Denmark

Romania

Ireland

Portugal

Croatia

Hungary

Finland

Spain

Italy

Slovakia

United KingdomAustria

Belgium

France

coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

new RE

other

Source: Eurostat database Janusz Olszowski – Polish Mining Chamber of Industry and Commerce


14Source; Market reports Euracoal 2018

Production of hard coal in some countries of the present EU in the years 1960 – 2017

- mln ton -

UK Germany France Czech Rep. Spain Belgium Poland1960 198,0 143,0 56,0 26,4 13,8 22,5 104,01970 147,0 111,0 37,8 28,2 10,8 11,4 140,01980 130,0 94,5 20,2 28,2 13,1 6,3 193,01990 94,4 76,6 11,2 22,2 14,9 2,4 148,02000 31,2 37,3 3,8 20,2 11,3 0,4 103,02010 18,4 12,9 0,0 11,4 8,4 0,0 76,72015 8,5 6,6 0,0 8,2 3,5 0,0 72,22016 4,2 4,1 0,0 6,8 1,7 0,0 70,42017 3,0 3,9 0,0 5,5 2,8 0,0 65,5

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

140,0

160,0

180,0

200,0



15

Major EU lignite producers in 2013-2017- mln t -

Źródło: EURACOAL Market Report, 2013 - 2016

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

140,0

160,0

180,0

200,0

Germany Poland Czech Rep. Greece Bulgaria Romania Hungary Slovenia Slovakia2013 183,0 65,5 40,4 52,5 28,6 22,9 9,5 4,4 2,22014 178,2 63,7 38,2 50,6 32,6 22,0 9,5 3,7 2,22015 177,7 63,1 38,1 46,6 32,6 22,7 9,1 3,1 1,82016 171,5 60,2 38,5 32,6 31,2 23,0 9,2 3,3 1,82017 171,3 61,0 39,3 37,7 34,4 25,7 8,0 3,4 1,8

mln

ton



16

Bigest coal importers of the UE in 2017- mln t -

Source: EURACOAL

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Germany Italy Spain Netherlands France Poland UK

47,9

16,719,2

14,716,0

13,4

7,5

mln

t

hard coal imports



17

Major exporters of hard coal to the EU in 2016

Source: EURACOAL

Russia32,5%

Colombia23,2%

Australia15,8%

USA14,3%

South Africa6,1%

Indonesia3,2%

Others4,9%



Production and import of hard coal and production of lignite in Europe in 2016



Hard coal balance resources in Poland as of 1 January 2017.

Source: ,,Balance of mineral resources i Poland” PIG, Warszawa 2017

58 578,44 mln ton

37,94%

55,02%

7,04%

Developed

Non-developed

With discontinued exploitation

22 221,58 mln ton

32 232,52 mln ton

4 124,34 mln ton



21Source: „ Balance of mineral resources in Poland „ PIG, Warszawa 2017

5,77%

94,16%

0,07%

Developed

Non-developed

With discontinued exploitation

1 353,65 mln ton

22 081,18 mln ton

16,30 mln ton

23 451,13 mln ton

Lignite balance resources in Poland as of 1st January 2017



22

Hard coal and lignite production in Poland in the years 2006 – 2017

- mln t -

Source: "Information on the Functioning of the Hard Coal Mining Industry (...)2006 - 2015", Ministry of Economy; Industrial Development Agency S.A. Katowice BranchEURACOAL Market Report, 2016-2014; Lignite, PPWB, No 1/2017.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017hard coal 95,2 88,2 84,3 78 76,7 76,4 79,8 77 70,5 72,2 70,4 65,5lignite 52,6 57,9 59,3 56,4 56,3 62,8 64,3 65,5 63,7 63,1 60,2 61,2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

mln

ton



23Source: "Time for solar power plants", 29.06.2017 ł

Share of fuels in electricity production in Poland

Data as of May 2017


hard coal power plants48%

lignite power plants34%

wind mills6%

gas power plants4%

hydro power plants2%

other power plants (in which industrial ones)

6%


24Source: "Consumption of fuels and energy carriers in 2006...2015"; CSO; Energy 2017, CSO; "Facts: Coal - Energy in Poland" Zbigniew Grudziński, GSMiE Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences - Kraków.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016hard coal consumption (mln ton) 83,5 84,2 80,3 73,8 81,9 79,1 75,2 77,3 72,8 72,3 78,4lignite consumption (mln ton) 60,1 57,3 57,7 56,0 55,7 60,2 63,3 65,0 63,2 63,0 60,4

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0m

ln to

n

Hard coal and lignite consumption in Poland in the years 2006-2016

- mln t -



25Source: "GSMiE Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences - Kraków"; Industrial Development Agency S.A., Katowice Branch

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

20,0

22,0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

mln

ton

export import

Import and export of hard coal in Poland in the years 2005-2017

- mln t -



26

Employment in the Polish hard coal mining industry: 82.7 thousand people

Employment in the Polish lignite mining industry: approx. 8.0 thousand people

In addition: approx. 400.0 thousand people work in the surroundings of the industry

The Polish coal mining industry generates almost 500 thousand jobs

Sources: Own elaboration

Workplaces in the Polish coal sector in 2017



Hard coal producers

Scientific and research facilities

Service companies

Lignite producers27

The potential of the coal sector in Poland

Manufacturers ofmining machinery and

equipment

COAL SECTOR IN

POLAND



28

COAL INDUSTRY

Contributions to State targeted

fundsPayments to State budget

Other charges

Fees and local taxes

Environmetalfees

Constributionsto Social Security

Institution

Influence of coal mining activities on public finances



30

Forecast of hard coal consumption in Poland by 2030- comparison of scenarios -

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

mln

ton

high scenario reference scenario low scenario

15,1 mln ton

14,5 mln ton

29,6mln ton

71,3 mln ton

86,1 mln ton

56,5 mln ton

71,0 mln ton

Source: "Program for the hard coal mining sector in Poland till 2030" adopted by the Council of Ministers on 23 January 2018.



31

Scenarios of CO2 certificates prices for Polish power generation in 2010 – 2050

Source: : „Forecast of demand for fuels and energy till 2050”, National Agency of Energy Conservation S.A .


2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Low 14 5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22Middle 14 8 13 20 25 30 35 40 45High 14 10 15 25 35 45 55 65 75

14

510

12 14 16 18 20 22

148

13

2025

3035

4045

1410

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

Euro

/tCO

2

years


33

Summary of lignite scenarios

Source: Draft "Program for the lignite mining sector in Poland" of 16 November 2017 of the Ministry of Energy.


Non – development scenario

Development scenario

base scenario

Deposits:

Deposits:


34

A BRIEF SUMMARY

• Coal will stay a basic fuel for energy production in the world.

• The decarbonisation policy may be negative for competitiveness of the EUeconomy.

• Poland has a strong and important coal mining sector.

• Polish government prepared programs for hard coal and lignite mining for theyears 2017 – 2030. The programs will create conditions for a profitable,efficient and modern coal mining industry to provide energy security of Poland.



35

• European Association for Coal and Lignite EURACOAL• Eurostat• U.S. Energy Information Administration• International Energy Agency• Central Statistical Office• Industrial Development Agency S.A. Katowice Branch• Ministry of Energy• Polish Geological Institute• Institute of Mineral Raw Materials and Energy of the Polish Academy of Sciences• VDKI• Polish Mining Chamber of Industry and Commerce

This presentation is based on reports and materials from the following institutions:


Thank youfor the attention

Janusz OlszowskiPresident

Polish Mining Chamber of Industry and Commerce

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