POLI100M:Poli-calPsychology

Lecture6:CampaignsTaylorN.Carlson@eenstr@ucsd.edu

Announcements•  ShortAssignment2isduetoday—anyques-ons?

•  MidtermisonTuesday– 11am-12:15pmexam,15minbreak,classresumesat12:30pm

– Mul-plechoice(35),matching(15),shortanswer(3of4)

– SeestudyguideonTritonEd•  OfficeHours:Tuesday2:30-4:30inSSB341,orbyappointment

LastTime•  Whydoindividualschooseinforma-onsources?

– Generaltrends—trustandconveniencearekey–  Percep-onsofbias,hos-lemediaeffect

•  Whatroledoesthemediaplayinshapingpublicopinion?–  Framing–  Priming

•  Howdoindividualsprocessinforma-onfromthemedia?–  Subjecttocogni-vebiases(e.g.mo-vatedreasoning)

Whatques-onsdoyouhave?

Today:DrivingQues-ons

•  Howdocampaignsusepsychologytowinelec-ons?

•  Issocialpressureaneffec-vetechniquetoboostturnout?Forwhom?

•  Arecampaignadseffec-ve?When,forwhom,whichtype,andwhy?

Today:LearningOutcomes

•  Definethefollowingkeyterms:persuasion,turnout,socialpressure,fieldexperiment

•  Describehowsocialpressurecanbeusedtoincreaseturnoutandwhenitmightbelesseffec-ve

•  Explainwhether(andwhen)campaignadsareeffec-ve

•  Evaluatetheeffec-venessofcommoncampaignstrategiesfromapsychologicalperspec-ve

Introduc-ontoCampaigns

Campaigns

•  Whatdocampaignsdo?•  Withwhichcampaignac-vi-esdoyoucomeintocontactthemost?

CampaignSpendingin2016•  Presiden-alcandidates:

–  Republican:$638million– Democrats:$794million

•  Housecandidates:–  Republican:$542million– Democrat:$422million

•  Senatecandidates:–  Republican:$322million– Democrat:$350million

•  $8.3millionspentonCACD49alone

Source:CenterforResponsivePoli-cs

Source:CenterforResponsivePoli-cs

Source:CenterforResponsivePoli-cs

Wheredoesallthemoneygo?

Campaigns:2KeyFunc-ons

1.  Mobilize—changingbehavior2.  Persuade—changingaitudes

Mobiliza-on

Howdocampaignsmobilize?

•  Informa-onalappeals•  Consistencytheory•  Socialpressure

Howdoweknowwhethercampaignssuccessfullymobilized?

•  Fieldexperiments!•  Mobiliza-ondependentvariable(DV):turnout

– Publicrecord– Directlyobservable—noself-reportbias

•  Randomlyassignindividualstovariousmobiliza-ontreatments(theindependentvariable)andobservewhethertheyturnouttovote

Informa-onalAppeals

•  Remindingvotersthatthereisanelec-oncomingup

•  Provideinforma-onofhowtoregister,whenandwheretovote,etc.

•  Fieldexperimentssuggestthatthiscanhaveamarginaleffectonturnout

ConsistencyTheory

•  Remindmewhatthisis.•  Howmightthisapplytocampaigns?•  Commitmentmechanisms!

CommonConsistencyTechnique

•  “FootintheDoor”–askforasmallfavor,thenfollowupwithabiggerfavor– Pledgecards– Campaigndona-ons– Volunteering

SocialPressure

“Doasmostdo,andpeoplewillspeakwellofthee”–ThomasFuller

SocialPressure

•  Conformity:achangeinone’sbehaviorduetorealorimaginedinfluenceofothers

•  Compliance:changingone’sbehaviorinresponsetoadirectrequest

Conformity

•  Notnecessarilyabadthing•  Twotypes:

–  Informa-onal– Norma-ve

Conformity

Informa(onal•  Behaviorofothersprovides

informa-on•  Leadstoprivateandpublic

acceptance•  Likelywhen:

–  Ambiguoussitua-on–  Crisissitua-on–  Othersareexperts

Norma(ve•  Desireforapprovalfrom

others•  Leadstopubliccompliance,

butnotprivateacceptance•  Likelywhen:

–  Unanimity–  Groupisimportanttoyou–  Collec-vis-cculture

Norma-veConformityExample

•  Asch(1952)Experiments

•  Inpoli-cs:Carlson&Sesle(2016)

Compliance

•  Changingone’sbehaviorinresponsetoadirectrequest

•  Otenreliesonsocialnorms(e.g.reciprocity)•  Commontechniquesusedtoinducecompliance:

– Doorintheface–  Freegit–  Baitandswitch–  Evenapennywouldhelp–  Socialvalida-on

Howdocampaignsusesocialpressure?

•  Combina-onofconformityandcompliance•  Makevo-ngasocialnorm,suchthatsocialpressureenforcesnorm-compliance

Howcanweboostturnout?

•  Gerber&Green(2000)•  Modesofcontact

– Mailers– Phonecalls– Canvassing

•  Message– Civicduty– Closeelec-on– NeighborhoodSolidarity

CivicDutyTreatment

NeighborhoodSolidarity

“Thereisstrengthinnumbers.Standupandbecounted.Whenpeoplefromourneighborhooddon’tvotewegivepoli-cianstherighttoignoreusandconcentratetheirenergieselsewhere.Butyoucanmakesurethatdoesn’thappen.Byjoiningyourneighborsandvo-ngonelec-onday,you’llsendamessagetoourelectedleaders:thatyoucareandthattheyshouldcareaboutyourconcerns.OnNovember3dVotetoensurethatwearenotignored.Remembertovote.”

Elec-onisCloseTheirfuturestartswithonevote.Yours.Inanelec-on,anythingcanhappen.Thisyearmanyelec-onswillbedecidedbyonlyahandfulofvotes—willyoursbethedecidingvote?Don’tmissyouropportunitytomakeadifference,don’tmissyourchancetomakeanimpactinourelec-ons.OnNovember3dmakesureyourvoteisincluded,becausenoelec-oniseveracertaintyandeveryvotecounts.OnNovember3ddon’tmissyouropportunitytomakeadifference.Remembertovote.”

Results

•  Phonecalls:Noimpactonturnout•  Mailers:0.6percentagepointincreaseinturnoutpermailing

•  Canvassing:9.8percentagepointincreaseinturnout

•  Messagedidnothaveasubstan-alimpactonturnout

Adding[more]SocialPressure

•  Gerber,Green,&Larimer(2008)•  TreatmentGroups:

– Control(nomailer)– CivicDuty– Hawthorne(youarebeingstudied)– Self– Neighbors

Results

•  Control:29.7%•  CivicDuty:31.5%,1.8percentagepointboost•  Hawthorne:32.2%,2.5percentagepointboost•  Self:34.5%,4.9percentagepointboost•  Neighbors:37.8%,8.1percentagepointboost

SocialPressureMailersinRealCampaigns

•  MoveOn.orgCivicAc-on(liberalgroup)sentvotehistorymailersto12millionregisteredvotersinallswingstatesandinmostcompe--vecongressionalelec-onsin2012

•  AmericansforLimitedGovernment(conserva-vegroup)sentvotehistorymailersto2millionregisteredvoters

IsVo-ngContagious?

•  Yes(Nickerson2008)•  Bondetal.(2012)findthatsocialpressureonFacebookcanalsoincreaseturnout!

•  Slidesborrowed/adaptedfromJamesFowler

No Message N = 613,096

Message Only

N = 611,044

Social Message N = 60,055,176

Message about user voting appears in news feed

Informational Message

Social Message

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Mobiliza-onandCampaignsSummary

•  Campaignsusemanypsychologicaltechniquesfrominforma-onalappeals,consistencytheory,andsocialpsychology(conformityandcompliance)tomobilizevoters

•  Themoresocialcampaigncontactis,thebiggertheeffectonturnout

•  Explicitsocialpressure,evenfromlesssocialmodes(e.g.mailers),haslargeeffectsonturnout,butthesemethodscanbecontroversial

Ques-ons?

Persuasion

Persuasion

•  AitudeChange•  Threemaincomponents:

– Communicator:persontryingtopersuade– Communica-on:contentofthemessage– Target:personcommunicatortriestopersuade

Elabora-onLikelihoodModel

•  TwoRoutestoPersuasion:– Central– Peripheral

•  Aitudechangevariesdependingonmentaleffort,condi-onalon:– Mo-va-on– Ability

PersuasionintheELM

Message

HighMo-va-on

LowMo-va-on

CentralRoute

PeripheralRoute

Las-ngChange

TemporaryChange

Audiencefactors

ProcessingApproach

PersuasionOutcome

Persuasion:Cogni-onandEmo-on

•  Iftheaitudeiscogni-velybased,trytochangeitwithra-onalarguments

•  Iftheaitudeisaffec-velybased,trytoappealtoemo-ons

•  What’stheproblemwithtryingtochangepoli-calaitudes?

CampaignsandPersuasion

•  Mostcommonmode:Ads!•  Largestpor-onofcampaignbudgets•  Threemaintypes:

– Posi-ve– Nega-ve– Contrast

ProcessingNega-veAds

•  Peoplepaymoreasen-ontonega-veinforma-onthanposi-veinforma-on–  “pleasureislessurgentthanpain”

•  Processnega-veinforma-onusingperipheralroute:quick,automa-c,effortless,etc.– Whatdoesthismeanforpersuasion?

Cancampaignadspersuade?•  Verylisleevidencethattheydo•  Minor,short-livedchangesinlabexperiments•  Why?

– Asen-on,noise,peripheralrouteprocessing– Mindsalreadymadeup– Heuris-csandothercogni-vebiasesmakeithardtoaffectvotechoice

•  Maybeadsactuallymobilizeinsteadofpersuade?–  Focusasen-on–  Informa-onseeking–  Interest

What’sthedealwithnega-veads?

•  Demobiliza-onHypothesis•  Mobiliza-onHypothesis

–  republicanduty– Candidatethreat– Perceivedclosenessoftheelec-on

SocialPressureandPersuasion

•  Broockman&Kalla(2016)•  BuildsontechniquesusedbytheLosAngelesLesbian,Gay,Bisexual,andTransgenderCenter– AnalogicPerspec-veTaking– Engagescentralrouteprocessing

•  Deeplyheldbeliefs,strongemo-ons

Broockman&KallaProcedure•  Unrelatedbaselinesurvey•  Knockedonthedoor,iden-fiedtheorganiza-ontheywere

with•  Informedvoterstheymightfaceadecisionaboutwhether

torepealtheordinanceprotec-ngtransgenderpeople•  Askedvoterstoexplaintheirviews•  Showedavideothatpresentedargumentsonbothsides•  Definedtransgender•  Askediftheyweretransgender•  Encouragedanalogicperspec-vetaking•  Askedvoterstodescribeifandhowthischangedtheir

opinions•  Unrelatedfollowupsurveys

Broockman&KallaResults

•  Thoseinthetreatmentgroupweresignificantlymoresuppor-veoflawsprotec-ngtransgenderpeople– Comparedtobaseline– Comparedtothosewhogottheplacebotreatment

•  Opinionchangeslastedupto3months

Ques-ons?