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Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland December, 2007 g Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference 2007

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Page 1: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Poland Commercial Real Estate Market

Hadley DeanManaging Partner, Poland

7th December, 2007Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference 2007

Page 2: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Colliers International – facts sheet

www.colliers.com

Colliers International Poland is an independent member of COLLIERS MACAULAY NICOLLS

(CMN)

334 offices in 27 countries

$688 million in revenue

28 m. sqm under management

6,398 professionals

$39 billion in transaction value

Colliers International Europe’s Offices

Page 3: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Colliers International Poland – Specializations

Investment Advisory Group Office Tenant Representation Industrial Tenant Representation Retail Leasing Property Valuation Building Consultancy Property Management Hospitality Advisory Research & Consulting

We accelerate yoursuccess by making ourKnowledge your property.

Page 4: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Commercial Markets by Colliers International

Office Market Trends

Industrial Market Trends

Page 5: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Office Market Overview

Page 6: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Warsaw Office Market 2007 Q3 SnapshotWarsaw Office Market 2007 Q3 Snapshot

TOTAL STOCK Q3 2007 (SQM)

VACANCY RATE Q3 2007 (%)

VACANCY RATE Q3 2006 (%)

2,690,704 3.6 6.6

SUBURBAN STOCK Q3 2007 (SQM)

SUBURBAN VACANCY RATE Q3

2007 (%)

SUBURBAN VACANCY RATE Q3

2006 (%)

1,599,372 3.4 5.5

CBD STOCK Q3 2007 (SQM)

CBD VACANCY RATE

Q3 2007 (%)

CBD VACANCY RATE

Q3 2006 (%)

1,091,332 3.8 8.3

Page 7: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Warsaw Office Market Leasing Activity*

*tenant deals signed (i.e. new tenants, renegotiations, expansions, & owner-occupier investments)

050

100150200250300350400450500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f

sq

m (

00

0s

)

CBD Suburbs

Page 8: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Warsaw Office Stock & Vacant Space

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

sqm

(00

0)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

sqm

(00

0)

Stock Vacant Space (right-hand scale)

Page 9: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Office Rents in Warsaw Q3 2007

DISTRICT

AVERAGE HEADLINE

RENT LEVELS (€)

AVERAGE EFFECTIVE

RENT (€)

GROWTH IN EFFECTIVE RENTS Y-O-Y

(%)

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

26.36 24.85 65

SUBURBS 15.54 14.35 14

WARSAW (CITY

AVERAGE) 20.95 19.60 44

Page 10: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Trends in the Warsaw Office Market

Very tight supply in CBD until at least 2010

Negligible levels of vacant space, rising rents

Flood of new projects in south and south west of city (400,000 sqm over 36 months)

Vacancy rates to rise, but only slightly. High demand will support rents in the suburbs

Page 11: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Regional Office Market 2007Regional Office Market 2007

CITYTOTAL STOCK

(SQM)VACANCY RATE (%)

KRAKOW 201,960 0.40

WROCLAW 158,510 2.40

TRICITY 141,400 4.50

POZNAN 113,130 4.00

LODZ 52,600 2.50

Page 12: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Trends in the Regional Office MarketTrends in the Regional Office Market

Supply boom - (notably Wroclaw and Lodz)

High demand will hold rents firm in most locations

Developers count on continued flow of BPO investments (particularly Lodz and Wroclaw), vulnerable to downturn in demand

Poznan market remaining tight, rents rising

Page 13: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Colliers Success Stories – Office Deals

PROVIDENT POLSKAColliers Office Department represented Provident Polska in negotiations of office lease.

Total area leased: 6,600 sqmClient: Provident Brokers: Marcin Kania, Paweł Skałba

CANAL+Advised by Colliers International CANAL+ decided to start the built-to-suite office building in the Stegny district of Warsaw.

Total area leased: 14,100 sqmClient: Canal+ CyfrowyBroker: Paweł Skałba

Page 14: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Colliers Success Stories – Office Deals

CAPGEMINIColliers International assisted Capgemini, a world leader in IT consulting and outsourcing services, in its lease of over 10,000 sqm in Rondo Business Park in Kraków.

Total area leased: app. 10,000 sqmClient: CapgeminiBroker: Marek Ciunowicz

NESTLÉ POLSKAColliers Office Department represented Nestlé Polskain the renegotiation of their lease in UBC I & UBC II,office buildings located in Mokotów district.

Total area leased: 5,300 sqmClient: Nestlé PolskaBroker: Paweł Skałba

Page 15: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Industrial Market

Page 16: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Industrial National Snapshot – H1 2007

RegionExisting

m2

Under construction

m2

Plannedm2

Vacancy rate Average rent

Warszawa 1 439 951 224 110 1 060 699 5,0% 2.70 - 5.00 €

Silesia 400 958 171 529 477 000 4,5% 3.15 €

Poznań 420 048 196 901 707 000 9,9% 2.90 €

Łódź 301 095 174 115 890 000 3,9% 2.65 - 3.20 €

Wrocław 203 867 104 330 375 972 4,3% 2.90 €

Kraków 19 000 0 150 000 0,00% 3.40 €

Gdańsk 53 000 35 800 37 000 9,9% 3.10 €

Other 15 920 0 228 000 0,00% -

TOTAL 2 853 839 906 785 3 925 671 7,51% -

Road Infrastructure

Page 17: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Modern Warehouses – National Stock & Pipeline

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

SQ

M (

00

0s

)

Planned [m2]

Existing [m2]

Page 18: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f

SQ

M (

000s

)

Warsaw Regions

National Market – Leasing Activity

Page 19: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Industrial Land Prices

TORUN

SZCZECIN

€15- €30€20-

€35

Zone I€45- €60

€30- €50

€15- €30

€15- €25 €10-

€15

€15- €25

€10- €15

Zone II€18- €30

Zone III€10- €25

IND

US

TR

IAL

LAN

D P

RIC

ES

Page 20: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Special Economic Zones for New InvestmentsSpecial Economic Zones for New Investments

14 areas across Poland offering enhanced economic conditions

Incentives include:

Corporation or income tax discounts

Fully prepared land with administrative clearance

for investment at competitive prices

Free assistance in completing administrative formalities

Exemption from real estate taxes in certain districts

Page 21: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Colliers Success Stories – Industrial Deals

PREGISPregis, represented by Colliers Internationalin the lease transaction, became one of the first tenants for production space in Tulipan Park Gliwice.

Client: PregisTotal space leased: 16,000 sqmBrokers: Renata Osiecka,

Maciej Chmielewski

UNILEVERColliers Industrial Department assisted Unileverin its lease of 42,000 sqm of industrial space inCentral Poland.

Client: UnileverTotal space leased: 42,000 sqmBrokers: Renata Osiecka,

Maciej Chmielewski

Page 22: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Colliers Success Stories – Industrial Deals

FIEGEAdvised by Colliers International Poland FiegeDecided to lease 30,000 sqm of warehouse spacein Silesia region.

Client: FiegeTotal space leased: 30,000 sqmBrokers: Renata Osiecka,

Maciej Chmielewski

NESTLÉColliers International Poland represented NestléPolska in renegotiating their lease agreement of20,000 sqm of warehouse space in Poznań.

Client: NestléTotal space leased: 20,000 sqmBrokers: Renata Osiecka,

Maciej Chmielewski

Page 23: Poland Commercial Real Estate Market Hadley Dean Managing Partner, Poland 7th December, 2007 Going Global - Business Opportunities in Poland Conference

Thank you for your attention!

Hadley Dean, Managing [email protected]. +48 22 331 78 00

www.colliers.com

Our Knowledge is your Property