play predict
TRANSCRIPT
Play Predict
Seiji Armstrong
15 players on a team
5 players on the court
The coach rotates players
between the bench and the court
Data-driven approach:
real-time performance prediction
Performance predictions
Game play has patterns
Positive: shots, assists, steals… Negative: turnovers, fouls…
Plays come in streaks
33
4
5
4 3 5
Plays come in streaks
Positive: shots, assists, steals… Negative: turnovers, fouls…
Game play has patterns
33
4
5
4 3 5
Plays come in streaks
Positive: shots, assists, steals… Negative: turnovers, fouls…
Game play has patterns
3 pointer
2 pointer
Play Predict :: algorithm
Basketballvalue.com
API Bulk download Scrape
2500 game events per player
Probability density
functionsConditional probabilities
Performance predictions
Unique streak
profilesClassifying
streaks
Complete game logs
Play Predict :: validation
Training set
Test
set
0.90.2
0.2
0.9
Validation set:
Played over 75% of
games (89 players).
Testing predictions
to continue streak
from 2 to 3.
Pearson R = 0.7
Seiji Armstrong
