platts megawatt daily

Download PLATTS Megawatt Daily

Post on 12-Feb-2016

5 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Robert Fares EI

TRANSCRIPT

  • www.platts.com

    [ELECTRIC POWER ]

    Wednesday, August 19, 2015

    MEGAWATT DAILYwww.twitter.com/plattspower

    Inside this Issue Ga. regulators sign off on Vogtle expansion costs 12 Q2 N.Y. real-time prices fall 29% year on year 12 Indiana muni installing 120 MW of solar energy 13

    Low and high average day-ahead LMP for Aug 19 ($/MWh) On-peak low On-peak high Off-peak low Off-peak high

    ISONE 40.52 42.04 24.67 25.20NYISO 34.00 44.73 19.86 27.33PJM 28.78 39.30 19.22 22.71MISO 23.53 32.29 17.58 23.02ERCOT 28.91 32.00 19.20 20.00SPP 19.15 24.73 14.08 21.06CAISO 36.07 37.45 28.31 29.26

    Note: Lows and highs for each ISO are for various hubs and zones. A full listing of average LMPs are available for the hubs and zones inside this issue.

    Day-ahead bilateral indexes and spark spreads for Aug 19 Marginal Spark spreads Index heat rate @7k @8k @10k @12k @15k

    SoutheastSouthern, Into 30.75 11316 11.73 9.01 3.58 -1.86 -10.01Florida 33.50 11279 12.71 9.74 3.80 -2.14 -11.05

    NorthwestMid-C 40.00 16293 22.82 20.36 15.45 10.54 3.18COB 43.72 16223 24.86 22.16 16.77 11.38 3.30

    SouthwestPalo Verde 35.98 13119 16.78 14.04 8.56 3.07 -5.16Mead 39.25 13918 19.51 16.69 11.05 5.41 -3.05

    Note: All indexes are on-peak. Spark spreads are reported in ($) and Marginal heat rates in (Btu/kWh). A full listing of bilateral indexes and marginal heat rates are inside this issue.

    Price trends at key trading points ($/MWh)

    Source: Platts

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    19-Aug13-Aug07-Aug01-Aug26-Jul20-Jul

    SP15ERCOT NorthIndiana HubPJM WestISONE Hub

    The Electric Reliability Council of Texas has been underestimating demand growth, and Panda Power

    Funds is planning to build additional natural gas-fired capacity to help fill what Panda sees as an impending supply gap, an executive said Tuesday.

    We have a contradictory view to ERCOTs [Capacity, Demand and Reserves] numbers, Michael Poray, Pandas senior vice president of commercial operations and origination, said in an interview, referring to ERCOTs expectation expressed in its May CDR reportthat the regions reserve margin will remain comfortably high for the foreseeable future.

    Poray said Panda expects the ERCOT region to need more thermal generating capacity, and the developer now plans to add 450 to 500 MW of combined-cycle capacity next to Pandas

    Panda plans for expected ERCOT supply gap

    (continued on page 14)

    A recent study indicates that in the short run, bulk energy storage could increase, rather than decrease,

    emissions from fossil-fueled electricity generation, but electricity market experts differ on the studys implications.

    In a Scientific American blog published Monday, Robert Fares, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Texas Energy institute, cited a study published in January in Environmental Science & Technology that said that in the short run, bulk energy storage would likely be charged by fossil-fueled electricity at times when they would otherwise be idle.

    In the Environmental Science & Technology article, Eric Hittinger of the Rochester Institute of Technology and Ines Azevedo of Carnegie Mellon University, said, The results show that the

    Bulk energy storage increases emissions: study

    (continued on page 15)

    Less than two weeks before the start of a crucial Ohio regulatory hearing that could chart the states

    energy future, a key report by the Ohio Public Utilities Commission staff is missing in action.

    In an unusual move, the staff missed an August 14 deadline to formally state its position on FirstEnergys proposed new electric security plan. The three-year plan includes the Akron-based companys request for a controversial power purchase agreement covering more than 3,000 MW of generation, including two at-risk plants, the 2,233-MW Sammis baseload coal plant and 908-MW Davis-Besse nuclear plant, both in Ohio.

    Although the five-member commission does not always endorse a staff recommendation, it typically gives it considerable weight.

    PUC staff misses deadline in FirstEnergy case

    (continued on page 16)

    REGULATION

    GENERATION

    STORAGE

  • Wednesday, august 19, 2015MegaWatt daily

    2 Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

    Northeast load and generation mix forecast (GWh) Actual % Chg Forecast 17-Aug %Chg Year-ago 18-Aug 19-Aug 20-Aug 21-Aug 22-Aug

    ISONE

    Load 471 16 0 447 437 409 394 364GenerationCoal 31 52 20 26 25 22 19 19Gas 221 8 8 222 203 183 174 177Nuclear 98 0 -8 98 98 98 98 98

    NYISO

    Load 503 -3 1 506 538 529 504 463GenerationCoal 13 16 -22 13 14 13 12 11Gas 268 21 25 260 245 222 205 200Nuclear 135 0 5 135 135 135 135 135

    Source: Bentek

    Northeast spot natural gas prices ($/MMBtu)

    Source: Platts

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    18-Aug10-Aug31-Jul23-Jul15-Jul07-Jul

    Iroquois zone 2 Transco zone 6 N.Y. Algonquin city-gates

    ISONE & NYISO nuclear generation outages (GW)

    Source: NRC

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    18-Aug3-Aug19-Jul4-Jul19-Jun4-Jun20-May

    2015 2014 2013

    NORThEAST MARkETS

    Mass hub drops to low $40s/MWhWeaker demand projections and lower spot natural gas

    pressured Northeast dailies Tuesday.Mass Hub on-peak prices for Wednesday delivery plummeted

    $11.75 to about $40.25/MWh on the IntercontinentalExchange. Off-peak lost $4.25 to around $23.50/MWh.

    Algonquin Gas Transmission city-gates spot gas sank 63.1 cents to $2.584/MMBtu.

    The ISO New England predicted peakload to drop from 24,500 MW Tuesday to 23,000 MW Wednesday and 22,200 MW Thursday.

    Temperature highs in Boston were forecast over 5 degrees above average Wednesday in the mid-80s.

    Day-ahead on-peak locational marginal prices across New York state mostly dropped under pressure from bearish spot gas and demand projections.

    New York ISO Zone G Hudson Valley day-ahead on-peak LMPs shed $10 to around $39.50/MWh for Wednesday delivery. Zone J New York City day-ahead on-peak fell $10.75 to roughly $42.75/MWh. Zone A West day-ahead on-peak jumped $1 to about $44/MWh.

    Transco Zone 6 New York spot natural gas fell 16.6 cents to $2.700/MMBtu.

    The New York ISO predicted peakload near 29,500 MW Tuesday, 28,850 MW Wednesday and 27,675 MW Thursday.

    Temperature highs in New York state were forecast around 5 to 10 degrees above normal Wednesday in the mid- to upper 80s.

    Weakened NYMEX gas futures and regional gas basis weighed on Northeast power forwards Tuesday afternoon, which were flat to lower.

    In New England, Mass Hub on-peak September slipped 25 cents to roughly $32.25/MWh on ICE around 2:30 pm EDT. Mass Hub on-peak September, however, was flat at about $40/MWh.

    In New York, Zone G and Zone A September packages were absent from afternoon activity.

    NYMEX September gas futures eased 2.4 cents to $2.704/MMBtu. Algonquin city-gate September gas basis dropped 8.8 cents to negative 79.3 cents/MMBtu, while Transco Zone 6 NY September gas basis lost 10.8 cents to negative 62.8 cents/MMBtu.

  • Wednesday, august 19, 2015MegaWatt daily

    3 Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

    ISONE day-ahead LMP for Aug 19 ($/MWh) Avg MarginalHub/Zone Average Cong Loss Change $/Mo heat rate

    On-peak

    Internal Hub 41.12 -0.05 -0.03 -10.81 33.77 15597Connecticut 41.34 -0.05 0.19 -10.84 34.12 14418NE Mass-Boston 41.22 -0.05 0.08 -11.00 33.79 15637SE Mass 40.91 -0.05 -0.24 -11.00 33.71 15518West-Central Mass 41.30 -0.05 0.15 -10.82 33.94 15664Rhode Island 40.52 -0.05 -0.63 -10.65 33.33 15367Maine 40.66 0.07 -0.60 -10.34 33.05 13317New Hampshire 42.04 0.45 0.40 -10.31 34.07 13769Vermont 41.73 -0.05 0.58 -10.78 33.65 13667

    Off-Peak

    Internal Hub 24.94 0.00 -0.04 -1.07 18.61 7979Connecticut 25.16 0.00 0.18 -0.97 18.82 7912NE Mass-Boston 24.88 0.00 -0.10 -1.11 18.54 7961SE Mass 24.71 0.00 -0.27 -1.17 18.48 7906West-Central Mass 25.10 0.00 0.12 -1.09 18.73 8031Rhode Island 24.67 0.00 -0.31 -1.15 18.50 7894Maine 25.00 0.00 0.03 -0.83 18.55 7940New Hampshire 25.15 0.00 0.17 -1.02 18.70 7985Vermont 25.20 0.00 0.22 -1.12 18.94 8002

    NYISO day-ahead LMP for Aug 19 ($/MWh) Avg MarginalHub/Zone Average Cong Loss Change $/Mo heat rate

    On-peak

    Capital Zone 38.08 0.00 2.66 -5.59 31.98 15735Central Zone 36.66 -0.82 0.42 -3.03 30.85 20130Dunwoodie Zone 39.62 0.00 4.20 -11.37 34.49 13514Genesee Zone 34.02 0.76 -0.64 -3.74 29.21 18680Hudson Valley Zone 39.59 0.00 4.17 -10.04 34.19 13504Long Island Zone 44.73 -3.79 5.52 -15.99 44.21 15257Millwood Zone 39.67 0.00 4.25 -11.30 34.51 13531Mohawk Valley Zone 36.51 0.00 1.09 -4.20 30.93 17668N.Y.C. Zone 42.67 -2.79 4.46 -10.72 35.90 14553North Zone 34.00 0.00 -1.42 -3.26 28.14 11135West Zone 43.94 -9.71 -1.18 0.99 35.44 24127

    Off-Peak

    Capital Zone 22.14 0.00 1.45 -2.23 18.05 8747Central Zone 20.92 0.00 0.24 -2.12 17.07 10840Dunwoodie Zone 23.01 0.00 2.32 -2.28 18.86 7551Genesee Zone 20.62 0.00 -0.07 -2.13 16.77 10684Hudson Valley Zone 22.93 0.00 2.24 -2.29 18.77 7524Long Island Zone 27.33 -3.57 3.08 -1.32 21.60 8970Millwood Zone 22.98 0.00 2.30 -2.29 18.84 7542Mohawk Valley Zone 21.40 0.00 0.71 -2.09 17.38 9844N.Y.C. Zone 24.44 -1.23 2.52 -1.34 19.25 8022North Zone 19.86 0.00 -0.83 -1.80 16.29 6306West Zone 20.41 0.00 -0.28 -2.23 16.85 10576

    Generation unit outage reportPlant/Operator Cap Fuel State Status Return Shut

    Northeast

    Bruce-4/Bruce Power 780 n Ont. MO Unk 08/11/15Lake Superior/Brookfield 120 g Ont. PMO Unk 11/04/14Pickering-1/OPG 500 n Ont. MO Unk 05/15/15Thunderbay-3/OPG 153 bio Ont. MO Unk 04/16/15Tunder Bay/Resolute 116 bio Ont. MO Unk 08/18/15

    Northeast Platts M2MS Forward Curve, Aug 18 ($/MWh)Prompt m

Recommended

View more >