platform wars - charles arthur
TRANSCRIPT
About me• Technology editor, The Guardian, since 2005
• Author, “Digital Wars: Apple, Google, Microsoft and the Battle for the Internet”
http://bit.ly/warsbook
We’ve had the digital wars
• Google v Microsoft in search
• Apple v Microsoft in digital music
• Google v Apple v Microsoftin smartphones
• Google v Apple v Microsoftin tablets
Who won in SEARch?• in search: emphatically Google (though that has consequences)
• Google’s share is a monopoly in Europe and (less so) the US
• swallowed MMI for its patentsbut got food poisoning
Who won in Music?
Zune introduction
And in smartphones?
Exponential?
Everyone’s connecting
"Global mobile penetration, at >80%, has surpassed that of electricity"
who won in tablets?• it’s too early to say.
The next wars: Platforms• Windows: once the only platform that mattered
• Smartphones will pass PC installed base in 2013
Platforms: what matters?• Size helps
Platforms: More complex• It’s a matrix rather than a simple graph
Platform success depends on...
fewer users
more users
more £/user
less £/user
Quadrant of dominance
Quadrant of niche-ness
Quadrant of commoditisation
Quadrant of doom
monetisation matters• Complicated interplay between desktop and mobile
• Mobile presently worth less than desktop
• Where do you want to be?
fewer users
more users
more £/user
less £/userAndroid
AppleWindows Phone
RIMFacebook
Google+
WindowsOffice
WhatsAppTwitter
Apple (Macs)
Platform forecast• win in hardware/services: get bigger platforms to target you (inc third-party developers)
• win in software: getting onto more hardware/services
• mutual win for both: monetise at scale
fewer users
more users
more £/user
less £/user