plastic mains risk replacement...
TRANSCRIPT
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2015
02 November 2017
Tim Manns
SOFTWARE
Plastic mains risk replacement prioritisation
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Using GIS Pipeline Distribution Data
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Mains Replacement in Gas Distribution
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Consequence of Failure
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Solution for Plastic Pipe Replacement Prioritisation
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Monetised Risk
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Plastic Risk Model – failure on plastic mains
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Plastic Risk Model – input factors
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Plastic Risk Model – converting remaining life to failure frequency
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A polynomial curve
fitted the data
points from
instances of gas
explosion incidents
in Europe
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Risk Model Process
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Plastic Risk Model – GIS input data
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Plastic Risk Model – GIS input data
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Consequence of Failure – Background Failure Zones
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Population Density for Monetised Risk
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Risk Model Results
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Risk Model Results – rolled up by polygon areas
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Risk Model Results – comparison to existing methods
“The results were probably about 80 percent of what we expected…we realized
there was more risk in some areas than what we had previously anticipated.
It wasn’t so much about the assets’ condition as it was the proximity and
population density factors, that drove that risk up higher.”
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Running replacement scenario
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Optimising replacement projects
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
Reduce monetised risk and compare to money spent
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DNV GL © 2015 02 November 2017
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
Thank You – Any Questions?
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Tim Manns