plant and soil consequences of a long-term climate change ...kearney.ucdavis.edu/old...
TRANSCRIPT
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Plant and Soil Consequences of ALong-Term Climate Change
Simulation
Michael E. Loik, Dept. of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, [email protected]
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precipitation magnitude, timing, variation
hydrology
tree encroachment
firerisk
carbon storage
conservation
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Canadian Global Climate Model 1CGCM1
Hadley Centre for Climate PredictionHadCM2
(annual changes compared to 1961 – 1990)
Hadley Centre for Climate PredictionHadCM3
Precipitation Scenarios& Model Uncertainty
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Valentine Eastern Sierra UC Reserve, Mammoth Lakes, CA
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CGCM1 predicts+ >100%
HadCM2 predicts +80%
HadCM3 predicts –10%
For Mammoth Lakes, CA…
(annual changes compared to 1961 – 1990)
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Approach
- use of 50 year old snow fences along a 50 km transect to cause snow depth forcing
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Snow Fences
- used by highway departments, ski areas, and railroads for snow control- also by water districts for water management
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accumulation ablation
Prevailingwind
US Hwy 395ca. 100 m »
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accumulation ablationPrevailing
wind
HadCM2 predicts +80%
(simulated by the snow accumulation zone)
HadCM3 predicts –10%
(simulated by the snow ablation zone)
Incorporating Climate Model Uncertainty
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N
US Hwy 395
VESR
Mammoth Lakes, CA
4. Hot Creek (1)
2. Deadman (8)
1. June Lake (1)
Not to scale
50 km
3. MCWD (7)
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- Inyo NF, BLM, LADWP
- increasing development and population in Mammoth Lakes
- recreation: 12 million visitor days per year
- headwaters for Owens River (Los Angeles)
- invasive species; fire risk
- land use: recreation, grazing, timber
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Hypotheses
1. Snow depth in the non-growing season affectsphotosynthesis during the subsequent growing season.
2. Long-term changes in snow depth (increases and decreases) alter plant community patterns.
3. Results in 1 & 2 lead to altered litter production, decomposition, and soil C and N content.
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snow depth
soil water content
photosynthesis community structure
litter quality, quantitySOM
decomposition
N mineralization
ANPP
root production
surface CO2 flux
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Snowfence
Depth = D Depth = ca. 2DDepth = ca. 0.7D
Control zone Accumulation
zone
Ablationzone
N50 m
Controlplots
Accumulationplots
Ablationplots
10 m
5 m
100
m
100
m
100
m
5 m 5 m
35 m
Snowfence
Prevailing wind direction
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Locationcontrol +snow -snow
Res
pons
e
Hypothesized Response
(assuming that snow depth impacts soil water content, community patterns, and ecosystem processes.)
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Hypotheses
1. Snow depth in the non-growing season affectsphotosynthesis during the subsequent growing season.
2. Long-term changes in snow depth (increases and decreases) alter plant community patterns.
3. Results in 1 & 2 lead to altered litter production, decomposition, and soil C and N content.
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Transect distance (m)-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Snow
dep
th (c
m)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
ambient
+snow
-snow
February, 2004
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Locationcontrol +snow -snow
Soil
moi
stur
e (%
by
wt)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
ab
a
b
April, 2004 following snowmelt
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Artemisia tridentata(Asteraceae)
Great Basin Sagebrush
Purshia tridentata(Rosaceae)
Antelope Bitterbrush
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Artemisia tridentata, P = 0.09
Wat
er p
oten
tial (
MPa
)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Purshia tridentata, P = 0.03
Location
upwind +snow -snow-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
aab b
a ab
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Artemisia tridentata
Stom
atal
con
duct
ance
(m
mol
m-2
s-1
)0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Purshia tridentata
Locationcontrol +snow -snow
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.6
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Artemisia tridentata
CO
2 ass
imila
tion
( μm
ol m
-2 s
-1)
0
5
10
15
Purshia tridentata
Location
control +snow -snow05
1015202530
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Hypotheses
1. Snow depth in the non-growing season affectsphotosynthesis during the subsequent growing season.
2. Long-term changes in snow depth (increases and decreases) alter plant community patterns.
3. Results in 1 & 2 lead to altered litter production, decomposition, and soil C and N content.
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One-way ANOVA: F = 2.84, P = 0.09Location
Up Acc Abl
Spec
ies
richn
ess
0
2
4
6
8
10a
ab
b
Species Richness
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LocationUp Acc Abl
Rel
ativ
e %
cov
er
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Artemisia tridentata Purshia tridentata
Relative Cover
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LocationUp Acc Abl
Rel
ativ
e %
cov
er
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Artemisia tridentata Purshia tridentata
Decreased albedo on
– snow plots?
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Locationcontrol +snow -snow
Leaf
are
a in
dex
(uni
tless
)
0
1
2
3
4a
b
c
P = 0.066
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Locationcontrol +snow -snow
Leaf
are
a in
dex
(uni
tless
)
0
1
2
3
4a
b
c
?
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Locationcontrol +snow -snow
Leaf
are
a in
dex
(uni
tless
)
0
1
2
3
4a
b
c
snow pressure?
snow mold?
going towood?
going to roots/soil?
going toreproduction?
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Locationupwind +snow -snow
Alb
edo
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
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Hypotheses
1. Snow depth in the non-growing season affectsphotosynthesis during the subsequent growing season.
2. Long-term changes in snow depth (increases and decreases) alter plant community patterns.
3. Results in 1 & 2 lead to altered litter production, decomposition, and soil C and N content.
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Artemisia tridentata
higher mortality on -snow plots
Purshia tridentata
no difference
Mortality (shrub skeletons)
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Locationcontrol +snow -snow
Coa
rse
woo
dy d
ebris
(m p
er 1
00 m
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
a
b
b
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Soil C and N (to date)
- higher at 10 compared to 30 cm depth
- organic C is higher in ambient, compared to +snow and –snow plots
- no differences for nitrogen content
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snow depth
soil water content
photosynthesis community structure
litter quantity, quality
SOM
decomposition
N mineralization
yes
yesyes
somewhat, ongoing
root production
surface CO2 flux
albedoNo
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Winter 2004 - 2005- eight months of snow
57 cm SWE at fences
(25 feet on Tioga Pass)
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Litter production
Decomposition
Soil Organic Matter
Work in Progress
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Work in Progress- need to examine potential for “fertile island” effect
Do C, N, and other nutrients vary under the canopy of A. tridentata or P. tridentata, comparedto open, inter-canopy sites?
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Work in Progress
Soil moisture & temperature probes at 10, 25, 50, 75, and 100 cm depth
Bulk density, NPK, roots, SOM
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Work in ProgressSeasonal waterrelations, gasexchange, LAI,NDVI, albedo
From snowmelt (May)to dormancy (Sept?)2005
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Annual growth rings
- snow
+ snow
13C reconstruction of long-term WUE
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Inyo National Forest
Alden Griffith, Holly Alpert , Dan Dawson and the Valentine Eastern Sierra Reserve
staff, David and Jody Holl
M. Theo KearneyFoundation for
Soil Science
Many thanks…
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Snow fence complex
Number snow fences
Elev (m) Soil Depth VadoseZone (cm)
Infiltration rate (cm h-1)
June Lake 3 2320 Cozetica >150 15 - 50
Deadman 8 2290 VitrandicXerorthent;Cryopsammet
100 15 - 50
Mammoth 10 2325 Haypress >150 15 - 50
Hot Creek 1 2175 TorriothenticHaploxeroll
>150 5 - 15
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Time1940 1960 1980 2000
Snow
dep
th (c
m)
050
100150200250300350
+2 sd
-2 sd
MonthJan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec
Ave
rage
mon
thly
pr
ecip
itatio
n (m
m)
0255075
100125150175200