PLANNING EVACUATION FOR CANTÓN RUMINAHUI

ALEXANDRA ENRÍQUEZ

Quito, 22 de Julio de 2004

COTOPAXI VOLCANO

Introduction

• Cotopaxi has been reactivate in the last year.

• In case of an important eruption of the Cotopaxi Volcano, lahares will represent the mayor danger to the inhabitants from Valle de los Chillos, Tumbaco which belongs to Cantón Rumiñahui.

• It is important to notice that the time requiere to the lahares to arrive at inhabited zones of de Valle de los Chillos is about 40 to 60 minutes since the generation in the volcano and just 30 minutes since the first alert.

OBJECTIVES

• Develop an Evacuation Planning for Cantón Ruminahui, in the case of an eventual eruption of Cotopaxi.

MODEL

• In order to model real-world problems such as Planning Evacuation for cities we want to solve large scale network flows over time.

• The city will be modelled as a network.

• The zones in "El Cantón Rumiñahui" affected by the lahares in case of an eruption of Cotopaxi are:

RISK ZONE 1• COLEGIO FARINA

• EL TRIANGULO

• URB. ROBLE ANTIGUO

• URB. CHIRIBOGA

• CONDOMINIOS SAN RAFAEL

• CONJUNTO EL REMANSO

• SECTOR SAN RAFAEL

• CONJUNTO VALLE VERDE

RISK ZONE 2

• URB. SAN LUIS

• URB. YAGUACHI

• CONJ. ALBORADA

• Barrio SANTA BARBARA

• MALL DEL RIO

• AV. LUIS CORDERO

• REDONDEL DEL AGUACATE

RISK ZONE 3

• Barrio EL PROGRESO

• Barrio LUIS CORDERO

• EMPRESA ELÉCTRICA

• HOSPITAL SANGOLQUI

• DESTACAM. DE POLICIA

• AV. LUIS CORDERO

RISK ZONE 4

• CONJ. SAN NICOLAS

• CONJ. EL VALLE

• CONJ. AGUIRRE AYALA

• URB. LA COLINA (parte baja)

• CIUDADELA ELEJERCITO

• COMUNA CASHAPAMBA

• HOGAR DE ANCIANOS

• VILCABAMBA

RISK ZONE 5

• REDONDEL DEL CHOCLO

• B. LA FLORIDA

• B. LOS PINOS

• URB. C. OLM. ANDRADE

• URB. LOS JARDINES

• URB. MAG

• AV. JUAN DE SALINAS

RISK ZONE 6

• URBANIZACIÒN COPEDAC

• BARRIO SELVA ALEGRE

• CONJUNTO ALCANTARA

• CAPILLA CHILLO COMPAÑÍA

• Fca.ENKADOR

RISK ZONE 7

• BARRIO CARLOS GAVILANES (parte baja)

• BARRIO LUZ DE AMERICA

• BARRIO SAN FERNANDO

• CENTRAL HIDROELECTRICA

• LOS CHILLOS

RISK ZONE 8

• BARRIO TANIPAMBA

• PLANTACION RIO PARAMO (parte baja)

• BARRIO EL VALLECITO

• BARRIO RUMIPAMBA

• HACIENDA SANTA RITA

SAFETY PLACE 1• IGLESIA SEÑOR DE LOS PUENTES

• PASTORAL SOCIAL CAPELO

• SEDE SOCIAL CAPELO

• CASA BRAZOS ABIERTOS

• IGLESIA LA CRUZ DEL VALLE

• PRE-ESCOLAR GUTEMBERG (Sitio de recreación)

• ESC. VICENTE AGUIRRE

Per each risk zone has been considered safety places

SAFETY PLACE 2

• FUERTE MILITAR SAN JORGE

• ESC. JUAN MONTALVO No. 2

• ESC.JUAN MONTALVO No. 3

SAFETY PLACE 3

• COLEGIORUMIÑAHUI

• MERCADO SAN SEBASTIÁN

SAFETY PLACE 4

• ESPE.(IF THE EVENT IS SURPRISING)

• IGLESIA MATRIZ DE SANGOLQUI

• FUND. EDUC. LICEO DEL VALLE

SAFETY PLACE 5

• C.E. ARTHUR JANOV

• QUINTA CARMITA

• FUNDACION CHUQUIRAHUA (HANDYCAPED PEOPLE)

SAFETY PLACE 6

• COLEGIO INTEGRAL

• FUNDACION GENERAL ECUATORIANA (HANDYCAPED PEOPLE)

SAFETY PLACE 7

• COLEGIO GALILEO GALILEI

• CASA COMUNAL JATUMPUNGO

• ESC. JOSE MARIA LARCO

SAFETY PLACE 8

• SAN ANTONIO DE PASOCHOA

• ESC. LUIS TELMO PAZ Y MIÑO

• HACIENDA SANTA RITA

• Each risk zone will be considered in the model as a source and each safety place as a sink.

SOME RESULTS

• Ford and Fulkerson: problem of sending the maximal amount of flow from a source s to a sink t for a fixed time horizon T. (1962)

• Gales; for constant transit times Earliest Arrival Flow (eaf) exist for any network (1959)

• Open: Whether the eaf problem can be solved in polynomial time.

• Hoppe and Tardos: present an approximation algorithm for finding earliest arrival flow (1994)

OBJECTIVE

• Studied an Approximating Earliest arrival Multicommodity Flows with flow-dependent transit times.