planet earth we have a problem feedback dynamics & the acceleration of climate change
TRANSCRIPT
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Planet Planet Earth Earth
We Have a ProblemWe Have a Problem
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Feedback Dynamics Feedback Dynamics & the Acceleration & the Acceleration of Climate Changeof Climate Change
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Billions
160,000B.C.
100,000B.C.
10,000B.C.
7,000B.C.
6,000B.C.
5,000B.C.
4,000B.C.
3,000B.C.
2,000B.C.
1,000B.C.
1A.D.
1,000A.D.
2,000A.D.
World Population
8
9
Population Growth Throughout History
7
2,150A.D.
2006 – 6.5 Billion
1945 – 2.3 Billion
2050 – 9.1 Billion
1492 – 500 Million1776 – 1 Billion
First Modern HumansFirst Modern Humans
Source: United Nations
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AtmosphericCarbon-dioxide
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Increase in GHGconcentration raises
efficiency of insulating envelope,reducing net global radiation
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Increase in GHGconcentration raises
efficiency of insulating envelope,reducing net global radiation
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Surfacetemperature
rises, driven byretained solar energy
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until resultantradiation recoversto establish a new
thermal equilibrium
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Except that weare accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs.
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Except that weare accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs.
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Except that weare accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs,and feedbacks are also pushing
the system even further from balance
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Except that weare accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs,and feedbacks are also pushing
the system even further from balance
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Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
Geo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
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Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
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Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
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Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
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Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
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Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
F.Ti
Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
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Most of the systems known to affect Most of the systems known to affect
Climate Change are now in net positive Climate Change are now in net positive
feedback. Each feedback mechanism feedback. Each feedback mechanism
accelerates its own specific process. As a accelerates its own specific process. As a
whole, the complex adaptive feedback whole, the complex adaptive feedback
system consists of an interactive set of system consists of an interactive set of
mutually reinforcing subsystems.mutually reinforcing subsystems.
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This second orderThis second order
feedback systemfeedback system
thereforetherefore
accelerates the rate ofaccelerates the rate of
Climate ChangeClimate Change
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Warming is accelerating GREATLY,
especially "Recently"
Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center
12th January 2007
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The Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to
global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to
be whipsawed between climate states…. Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth
perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers
for humans and other creatures.
James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. 18th February 2007
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Towards theTowards theAnthropoceneAnthropocene
Extinction EventExtinction Event
Beyond theBeyond theTipping PointTipping Point
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“Tipping Point”or Bifurcation
Between Two Attractor Basins
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Increase in Global Heating
Unstable Equilibrium
Potential Energy of Equilibrium State
Inflection Point
Original stable Equilibrium
Runaway Global Heating
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Introducing the ConceptIntroducing the Conceptofof
““Critical Threshold”Critical Threshold”
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““Critical Threshold”Critical Threshold”the point beyond which
the power of positive feedback
overwhelms the capacity for
human intervention
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““Critical Threshold”Critical Threshold”the point towards which
the cost of climate stabilisation
escalates asymptotically
towards infinity
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100 %
Increase in Global Heating
Relative Power of Positive Feedback
Original Equilibrium
Critical Threshold
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100 %
Increase in Global Heating
Relative Power of Positive Feedback
Original Equilibrium
Critical Threshold
CostofClimateStabilisation
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100 %
Increase in Global Heating
Relative Power of Positive Feedback
Original Equilibrium
Critical Threshold
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We are now in the early stages of runaway Climate Change.
There does not appear to be any naturally occurring
negative feedback process in place to contain its effects.
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Strategically we have to
generate a negative feedback
intervention of sufficient power
to overcome the now active
positive feedback process.
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Then maintain its effectiveness
during the period while
temperature-driven feedback
continues to be active.
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Climate Climate StabilisationStabilisation
Strategic Imperative for Strategic Imperative for Tomorrow’s WorldTomorrow’s World
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Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing
The Gap between Energy received from the Sun
and
Energy radiated back into space from the Earth
Or Global Heating
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-
Time
AcceleratingGlobal Heating
0
-ve
+ve
Thermal Equilibrium
GlobalHeatingRadiative Forcing
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Radiative Forcing
20072007
380
460480
4002.5
3.6
380
420
440
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Radiative Forcing
20072007
380
460480
4002.5
3.6
380
420
440
2007
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Radiative Forcing
20072007
380
460480
4002.5
3.6
+ CO2e
380
420
440
2007
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Radiative Forcing
20072007
380
460480
4002.5
+ H2Ovap
3.6
+ CO2e
380
420
440
2007
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Radiative Forcing
20072007
380
460480
4002.5
+ H2Ovap
3.6
+ CO2e
380
420
440
2007
+ Albedo-change?
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Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing
Value of about 4 watts per square metre
Or Global Heating
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Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing
Value of about 4 watts per square metre
Is reduced by 1 w.m-2 for Global Dimming
Or Global Heating
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Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing
Value of about 4 watts per square metre
Is reduced by 1 w.m-2 for Global Dimming
And by 1 w.m-2 for Temperature rise of 0.8ºC
Or Global Heating
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Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing
Is currently running at about 2 w.m-2
Or Global Heating
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Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing
Is currently running at about 2 w.m-2
That is about 8 one k.watt fires per small sized football pitch
Or Global Heating
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Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing
Is currently running at about 2 w.m-2
Or 1,000,000 Giga Watts over the whole Earth
Or Global Heating
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Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing
Is currently running at about 2 w.m-2
Or 1,000,000 Giga Watts over the whole Earth
= 1 Trillion (million x million) 1KW Fires
Or Global Heating
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Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing
Is currently running at about 2 w.m-2
It is increasing by 25% per decade
Or Global Heating
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Climate Climate StabilisationStabilisation
Means reducing that to Means reducing that to
ZeroZero
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Time
Accelerating Global Heating
0
-ve
+ve
Thermal Equilibrium
Global Heating
Effects of required Strategic Intervention
Global Cooling
Intervention Point
Radiative Forcing
Like ThisLike This
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There now exists a
State of Planetary
Emergency
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Declaring the Stateof Planetary Emergency
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EngagingEngaging the Stateof Planetary Emergency
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““Failure is not an option”Failure is not an option”Gene Kranz
Apollo 13: Mission Controller
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P l a n e t E a r t hP l a n e t E a r t h
W e H a v e a P r o b l e mW e H a v e a P r o b l e m
F e e d b a c k D y n a m i c s F e e d b a c k D y n a m i c s & t h e A c c e l e r a t i o n & t h e A c c e l e r a t i o n o f C l i m a t e C h a n g eo f C l i m a t e C h a n g e
A Scientific UpdateA Scientific Update Proceedings of the Westminster Briefing hosted by the
All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group on 6th June 2007
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T h eT h e
P r o j e c tP r o j e c t
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T h eT h e
P r o j e c tP r o j e c t
www.apollo-gaia.org
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Geo-Thermal energyGeo-Thermal energy
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Geo-Thermal energyGeo-Thermal energy
Spatial Sink
Temperature
GlobalHeating
Geo-thermalenergy
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Geo-Thermal energyGeo-Thermal energy
Spatial Sink
Temperature
GlobalHeating
F.G
Geo-thermalenergy
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Radiation cycleRadiation cycle
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Radiation cycleRadiation cycle
Spatial Sink
Temperature
GlobalHeating
Solarenergy
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Radiation cycleRadiation cycle
Spatial Sink
Temperature
GlobalHeating
Solarenergy
F.R
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Carbon CycleCarbon Cycle
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TemperatureGlobalHeating
CO2(e)Concentration
CO2Emission
CO2Absorption
Carbon CycleCarbon Cycle
CO2 Equivalenceof other Emitted
GHGs
CO2 FromBreakdown of
Methane
Spatial Sink
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TemperatureGlobalHeating
CO2(e)Concentration
CO2Emission
CO2Absorption
Carbon CycleCarbon Cycle
CO2 Equivalenceof other Emitted
GHGs
CO2 FromBreakdown of
Methane
F.1
AlbedoEffect
Spatial Sink
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TemperatureGlobalHeating
CO2(e)Concentration
CO2Emission
CO2Absorption
Carbon CycleCarbon Cycle
CO2 Equivalenceof other Emitted
GHGs
CO2 FromBreakdown of
Methane
F.1 F.2
AlbedoEffect
Spatial Sink
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Albedo EffectAlbedo Effect
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Albedo EffectAlbedo Effect
+ or –Change in
Albedo
GlobalHeating Temperature
Reflection fromIce and Snow
Reflection fromVegetation
Reflection fromLand & Sea
Spatial Sink
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Albedo EffectAlbedo Effect
+ or –Change in
Albedo
GlobalHeating Temperature
Reflection fromIce and Snow
Reflection fromContrails and
Aerosols
Reflection fromVegetation
Reflection fromLand & Sea
Reflection fromCloud Forms
Spatial Sink
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Albedo EffectAlbedo Effect
+ or –Change in
Albedo
GlobalHeating Temperature
Reflection fromIce and Snow
F.3
Reflection fromContrails and
Aerosols
Reflection fromVegetation
Reflection fromLand & Sea
Reflection fromCloud Forms
Spatial Sink
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Albedo EffectAlbedo Effect
+ or –Change in
Albedo
GlobalHeating Temperature
Reflection fromIce and Snow
F.3
Reflection fromContrails and
Aerosols
Reflection fromVegetation
Reflection fromLand & Sea
Reflection fromCloud Forms
Changes in CosmicRadiation
Spatial Sink
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Water VapourWater Vapour
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Water VapourWater Vapour
EvaporationFrom
Plant surface
Water VapourConcentration
GlobalHeating Temperature
EvaporationFrom
Water surface
EvaporationFrom
Land surface
Spatial Sink
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Water VapourWater Vapour
EvaporationFrom
Plant surface
Water VapourConcentration
GlobalHeating Temperature
EvaporationFrom
Water surface
EvaporationFrom
Land surface
Cloud Formation &Precipitation
Spatial Sink
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Water VapourWater Vapour
EvaporationFrom
Plant surface
Water VapourConcentration
GlobalHeating Temperature
EvaporationFrom
Water surface
EvaporationFrom
Land surface
F.4
Cloud Formation &Precipitation
Spatial Sink
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Water VapourWater Vapour
EvaporationFrom
Plant surface
Water VapourConcentration
GlobalHeating Temperature
EvaporationFrom
Water surface
EvaporationFrom
Land surface
F.4
F.5
Cloud Formation &Precipitation
Spatial Sink
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Water VapourWater Vapour
EvaporationFrom
Plant surface
Water VapourConcentration
GlobalHeating Temperature
EvaporationFrom
Water surface
EvaporationFrom
Land surface
F.4
F.5
Cloud Formation &Precipitation
Changes in CosmicRadiation
Spatial Sink
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Water VapourWater Vapour
EvaporationFrom
Plant surface
Water VapourConcentration
GlobalHeating Temperature
EvaporationFrom
Water surface
EvaporationFrom
Land surface
F.5
Cloud Formation &Precipitation
What happens if we shift to a hydrogen economy and replace CO2 with H2O as an anthropogenic greenhouse gas?
F.4
Changes in CosmicRadiation
Spatial Sink
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Methane CycleMethane Cycle
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Methane CycleMethane Cycle
MethaneEmissions
MethaneConcentration
GlobalHeating Temperature
Humanactivity
Bacterialactivity
ReleasedFrom Store
MolecularBreakdown
CO2concentration
Plant & AnimalSources
Spatial Sink
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Methane CycleMethane Cycle
MethaneEmissions
MethaneConcentration
GlobalHeating Temperature
Humanactivity
Bacterialactivity
ReleasedFrom Store
MolecularBreakdown
Plant & AnimalSources
F.6
CO2concentration
Spatial Sink
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Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
F.G Temp./GHG Effect Geo-thermal Heating
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Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
F.G Temp./GHG Effect Geo-thermal Heating
0.1Rising GHG concentration inhibition of geo-thermalradiation increased surface temperature eventualincrease in earth core temperature
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Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
F.G Temp./GHG Effect Geo-thermal Heating
G.2
Rising surface temperature from retained solar energy inhibits geo-thermal radiation even higher surfacetemperature to restore geo-thermal radiation eventualincrease in earth core temperature
G.1Rising GHG concentration inhibition of geo-thermalradiation increased surface temperature eventualincrease in earth core temperature
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Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
F.R Temperature Radiation
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Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
F.R Temperature Radiation
R.1Rising surface temperature increases the rate of radiationDecreases radiative forcing eventual restoration ofthermal equilibrium
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Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
F.R Temperature Radiation
NB:
The effect of this negative feedback mechanism is masked by the acceleration of radiative forcing
R.1Rising surface temperature increases the rate of radiationDecreases radiative forcing eventual restoration ofthermal equilibrium
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F.1 CO2 Concentration CO2 Absorption Rate
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
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F.1 CO2 Concentration CO2 Absorption Rate
1.1Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water decreasing absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
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F.1 CO2 Concentration CO2 Absorption Rate
1.2Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water destruction of plankton decreasingabsorption of CO2 increased CO2 concentration
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
1.1Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water decreasing absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
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F.1 CO2 Concentration CO2 Absorption Rate
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
1.3
Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water destruction of plankton decreasingemission of DMS decreased cloud formation loweredcloud Albedo, less I-R absorption increased global heating?
1.2Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water destruction of plankton decreasingabsorption of CO2 increased CO2 concentration
1.1Rising CO2 concentration higher acidification of oceansurface water decreasing absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
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F.2 Temp./CO2 Concentration. CO2 Concentration/Absorption
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
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F.2 Temp./CO2 Concentration. CO2 Concentration/Absorption
2.1Rising temperature of ocean surface water decreasingabsorption of CO2 increased CO2 concentration
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
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2.2
Rising temperature of ocean surface water decreasingplankton life decreasing absorption of CO2 increasedCO2 concentration
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
F.2 Temp./CO2 Concentration. CO2 Concentration/Absorption
2.1Rising temperature of ocean surface water decreasingabsorption of CO2 increased CO2 concentration
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2.3Rising temperature + Increasing CO2 concentration trigger of land-based vegetation from carbon sink tocarbon source increased CO2 concentration
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
Continue category
2.2
Rising temperature of ocean surface water decreasingplankton life decreasing absorption of CO2 increasedCO2 concentration
F.2 Temp./CO2 Concentration. CO2 Concentration/Absorption
2.1Rising temperature of ocean surface water decreasingabsorption of CO2 increased CO2 concentration
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2.4Rising temperature increasing respiration ofsoil-based bacteria increased release of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
F.2 Temp./CO2 Concentration. CO2 Concentration/Absorption
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2.5
Rising temperature + change in rainfall drying out ofpeat bogs increasing enzyme activity followed by riskof fire release of CO2 increased CO2 concentration
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
2.4Rising temperature increasing respiration ofsoil-based bacteria increased release of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
F.2 Temp./CO2 Concentration. CO2 Concentration/Absorption
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2.5
Rising temperature + change in rainfall drying out ofpeat bogs increasing enzyme activity followed by riskof fire release of CO2 increased CO2 concentration
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
2.4Rising temperature increasing respiration ofsoil-based bacteria increased release of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
F.2 Temp./CO2 Concentration. CO2 Concentration/Absorption
2.6
Rising temperature expansion of land-based tectonic plates increased volcanic activity release of CO2 increased CO2 concentration
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F.3 Temperature Albedo Effect
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
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F.3 Temperature Albedo Effect
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
3.1Rising temperature melting of ice and snow decrease in Albedo effect increased heating
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F.3 Temperature Albedo Effect
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
3.2Rising temperature die-back of tropical forest increase in Albedo effect decreased heating
3.1Rising temperature melting of ice and snow decrease in Albedo effect increased heating
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F.3 Temperature Albedo Effect
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
3.3Rising temperature northward expansion of Boreal forest decrease in Albedo effect increased heating
Continue category
3.2Rising temperature die-back of tropical forest increase in Albedo effect decreased heating
3.1Rising temperature melting of ice and snow decrease in Albedo effect increased heating
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F.3 Temperature Albedo Effect
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
3.4
Rising temperature of ocean surface die-back ofplankton decreased release of DMS decreased cloudformation decreased Albedo effect + less I-R absorption increased heating?
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F.3 Temperature Albedo Effect
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
3.5Rising temperature of ocean surface increased densityof water vapour increased cloud formation increase in Albedo effect + greater I-R absorption decreased heating?
3.4
Rising temperature of ocean surface die-back ofplankton decreased release of DMS decreased cloudformation decreased Albedo effect + less I-R absorption increased heating?
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F.4 Temperature Cloud Formation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
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F.4 Temperature Cloud Formation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
4.1
Rising low level air temperature increased capacity for H2O vapour storage decreased cloud formation decrease in Albedo effect + less I-R absorption increased heating?
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F.4 Temperature Cloud Formation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
Decreasing high level air temperature decreasedcapacity for H2O vapour storage increased cloudformation increased Albedo effect + more I-R absorption decreased heating?
4.2
4.1
Rising low level air temperature increased capacity for H2O vapour storage decreased cloud formation decrease in Albedo effect + less I-R absorption increased heating?
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F.5 Temperature Evaporation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
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F.5 Temperature Evaporation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
5.1
Rising temperature (all surfaces) increased evaporation increased water vapour density more cloudformation increased Albedo effect, but more I-R absorption decreased heating?
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F.5 Temperature Evaporation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
5.2Rising temperature (all surfaces) increased evaporation increased water vapour density increased GHGeffect increased global heating
5.1
Rising temperature (all surfaces) increased evaporation increased water vapour density more cloudformation increased Albedo effect, but more I-R absorption decreased heating?
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F.6 Temperature Methane Emissions
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
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F.6 Temperature Methane Emissions
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
6.1Rising temperature increased bacterial activity increased methane production increased GHGeffect increased global heating
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F.6 Temperature Methane Emissions
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
6.2Rising temperature thawing of tundra permafrost release of methane increased GHG effect increase in global heating
6.1Rising temperature increased bacterial activity increased methane production increased GHGeffect increased global heating
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F.6 Temperature Methane Emissions
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
6.3Rising temperature warming of shallow seas release of methane hydrates increased GHG effect increase in global heating
6.2Rising temperature thawing of tundra permafrost release of methane increased GHG effect increase in global heating
6.1Rising temperature increased bacterial activity increased methane production increased GHGeffect increased global heating
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F.Ti Temperature Thermal Inertia
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
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F.Ti Temperature Thermal Inertia
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
Ti.1Hotter ocean surface more stratification and lessmixing degrade of ocean thermal sink increase in rate of global warming
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F.Ti Temperature Thermal Inertia
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
Ti.2Rising temperature less available ice to melt decreased endothermic inertia increase in rate of global warming
Ti.1Hotter ocean surface more stratification and lessmixing degrade of ocean thermal sink increase in rate of global warming
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F.Ti Temperature Thermal Inertia
Feedback Mechanisms by Category Feedback Mechanisms by Category Driven By: Operates On:
Ti.3Hotter water-air interface more evaporation enhanced endothermic inertia decrease in rate of global warming
Ti.2Rising temperature less available ice to melt decreased endothermic inertia increase in rate of global warming
Ti.1Hotter ocean surface more stratification and lessmixing degrade of ocean thermal sink increase in rate of global warming
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Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
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Temperature
GlobalHeating
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Radiative forcing from all sources
Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
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Temperature
GlobalHeating
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Radiative forcing from all sources
Heatingof land-mass
Ice-meltendothermic
Evaporationendothermic
Heating ofatmosphere
Heatingof ocean
Heatingof ice
Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
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Temperature
GlobalHeating
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Radiative forcing from all sources
Heatingof land-mass
Ice-meltendothermic
Evaporationendothermic
Heating ofatmosphere
Heatingof ocean
Heatingof ice
Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
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Temperature
GlobalHeating
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Radiative forcing from all sources
Heatingof land-mass
Ice-meltendothermic
Evaporationendothermic
Heating ofatmosphere
Heatingof ocean
Heatingof ice
Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
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Temperature
GlobalHeating
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Radiative forcing from all sources
Heatingof land-mass
Ice-meltendothermic
Evaporationendothermic
Heating ofatmosphere
Heatingof ocean
Heatingof ice
F.Ti
Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
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Towardsan effective Strategy
ForClimate Stabilisation
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Fossil Fuel Emissions
0
BAU
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Fossil Fuel EmissionsDescent to Low Carbon Economy
Emissions Reduction
0
BAU
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Fossil Fuel EmissionsDescent to Low Carbon Economy
Emissions Reduction
0
Family of Solutions based on 1990’s Understanding of
Climate Change
BAU
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Fossil Fuel EmissionsDescent to Low Carbon Economy
Emissions Reduction
0
Family of Solutions based on 1990’s Understanding of
Climate Change
BAU
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Imperative to move:
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Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
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Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
through zero carbon economy
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Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
through zero carbon economy
to a carbon removal economy
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Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
through zero carbon economy
to a carbon removal economy
At a Global level
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Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
through zero carbon economy
to a carbon removal economy
At a Global level
In the shortest possible time
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CO2 emitting
fossil fuel is an energy
source whose time is
over!
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Change from treating it
as a scarce resource
with high value
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To an eco-toxin
to be removed
as quickly as possible!
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0
BAU
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Build-up of Eco-Toxin
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0
BAU
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Build-up of Eco-Toxin Emissions
Reduction
Emergence into Carbon Removal Economy
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0
BAU
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Build-up of Eco-Toxin Emissions
Reduction
Emergence into Carbon Removal Economy
Solutions based on Current Understanding of Climate Dynamics
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Metamorphosis: 1Metamorphosis: 1
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Metamorphosis: 1Metamorphosis: 1
Increasing penalty for emissions from fossil
fuels
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Metamorphosis: 1Metamorphosis: 1
Increasing rewards for removal of atmospheric
co2
Increasing penalty for emissions from fossil
fuels
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Metamorphosis: 2Metamorphosis: 2
Emission Penalties
Removal Rewards
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ANTHROPO- ANTHROPO- SPHERESPHERE
A Matrix of co-evolutionary sub-systems
With an array of non-linear feedbacks between all elements
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ANTHROPO- ANTHROPO- SPHERESPHERE
Population
Economics
Energy
Resources
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ANTHROPO- ANTHROPO- SPHERESPHERE
Population
Economics
Energy
Resources
Employment Pollution
Science &Technology Industry
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ANTHROPO- ANTHROPO- SPHERESPHERE
Population
Economics
Energy
Resources
Water Agriculture
Health Food
Employment Pollution
Science &Technology Industry
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ANTHROPO- ANTHROPO- SPHERESPHERE
Population
Economics
Energy
Resources
Water Agriculture
Health Food
Employment Pollution
Science &Technology Industry
UrbanisationTransport
Travel & Mobility
PoliticsConflict& War
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ANTHROPO- ANTHROPO- SPHERESPHERE
Population
Economics
Energy
Resources
Water Agriculture
Health Food
Employment Pollution
Science &Technology Industry
UrbanisationTransport
Travel & Mobility
PoliticsConflict& War
Education Values
Consumer-ism
Media &Advertising
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ANTHROPO- ANTHROPO- SPHERESPHERE
Population
Economics
Energy
Resources
Water Agriculture
Health Food
Employment Pollution
Science &Technology Industry
UrbanisationTransport
Travel & Mobility
PoliticsConflict& War
Education Values
Consumer-ism
Media &Advertising
Military-
Industrial
Complex
Psycho-
Social
Dynamics
Communication
Religious Beliefs
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