pitfalls problems & roadblocks

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Pitfalls problems & roadblocks. Diverts development & aid $ Increases the price of foods. Financial melt-down National scale land purchases Food fuel ... War on terror ... Nations in bondage to IMF debt Unfair trade practices Climate change Globalization of food economics - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


Its not that complicated

Pitfalls problems & roadblocksFinancial melt-downNational scale land purchasesFood fuel ...War on terror ...Nations in bondage to IMF debtUnfair trade practicesClimate changeGlobalization of food economicsClean water & air have become commodities

Vandana Shiva on globalizationVandana Shiva on Food Laws Diverts development & aid $ Increases the price of foodsAlso displaced persons & Destroys the local economyDeviation of resources & increased prices1Supplementary data & tables follow22Stunted children (poverty-trapped)3

195 million worldwide 2008http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf35 countries in which poverty is increasing: 34http://www.actionaid.org.uk/doc_lib/hungerfree_scorecard.pdfContrary view 2010http://aidwatchers.com/2010/09/%E2%80%9Cproofiness%E2%80%9D-trashing-back-on-fao-hunger-numbers/

William Easterly4Number of people (millions) adequately nourished (FAO data)5

2010 UN 86% 587b ?Reflected in infant mortality data, and a number of health indicators. WHO, WB, FBI, IFPRI, 56

30%2000Decreasing poverty80%Fraction in povertyEthiopia: on the development ladder

NATO has been pouring aid into Ethiopia, to EPRDF (according to CBC AIH 19 Oct) without requiring transparency. EPRDF is the darling of NATO for sending its army to prevent and Islamic government in Somalia. Criticised for diverting aid away from areas that voted pro-islam! Ill skip through the next few slides. They add confirmatory voice6% Infant mortality < 5 years7http://www.childinfo.org/mortality_infantmortality.phpalso www.gapmminder.orgStill poverty trappedIndiaUSASingaporeIMR is San Marino 1.2, Cuba 4.5 (better than Canada, US, UK. NZ, Aus)In US of every 7 infant deaths, 6 were preventable7Porkbarrelling & Swiss bank a/csmulti-nationalsdictatorsnumbered bank a/csRich nationpoliticians governmenttaxpayers in poor countriescommoditiestaxpayers in rich (Nato?) countriesmilitary-industrialcomplexTanks & rockets for right wing regimes, invasions for freedom & democracy, & depose socialists Treaties force unfair tariffs & trade. Share-holders$$$$$$$election funds,inducementsconcessions$$885 Nations where hunger is increasing9

http://www.ifpri.org/datasetsPoverty is the greatest determinant of hunger. 2 large and 3 small nations in Africa % hunger is increasing. Perhaps an equal number are not improving9Prevalence of stunting >2SD10

http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf10MDGs: world progress1120052006% < $1.25 /day% undernourished% infant mortalityH2Ogreen bar is target for 20152006amber bar is 1990; yellow is 2008 or ..schoolpregntMost recent data Sept 20101112


http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf13Nations in the poverty trapIn 5 of them hunger is increasing14

www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/21/2010_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankingshttp://www.ifpri.org/datasetsNearly all are conflict zones, rich in resources or militarily strategicOf the top 20 on the list, the first 14 are rated critical. Top 8 are foreign intervention or sanctions. Bottom 8 About half are in Africa. However of the 14 failed or most endangered, most are not high in the economic decline index. They are states with governments being punished, for being against democracy or freedom - for wanting to control their destiny. Moreover, the top 8 ranked 9.7/10 for external (nato) interference or sanctions. Identical with IFPRI hunger-increasing map.1415



Low share of phantom aid60% of US ODA goes to Iraq & Israel16Nothing helps Poverty will go17Its their own faultCorrupt dictatorsMalthus2008 recessionTrillions wastedMDGs are unachievableCorrupt multinationalsThey will be achievedWe know what works & doesntThrowing $ at problemsWill delay progress by 4-8 yThey dont need $17there is no reason for complacency or self-satisfaction10,000,000 kwash ward [= no of kids born in Can in 30 years] 35M birth rate 10/1000 = 350k kids/y]The faster we move the less we have to cope with population growth,

1818Show as stacked histogram%le rankMember countries90-100NZ, Scand, Switz, Can, Aus, HK, W Eur & UK50-90US, France, UAE, Israel, Botsw, SA, Namib, TurkyKuwait, Ghana, Greece, China, Swaziland, India, Panama, Thailand33-50Morocco, Malawi, Lesotho, Mex, Rwanda, SriLan, Liberia, Zambia, Senegal, Niger, Gambia, Argentina, Egypt, Algeria, Mali 15-30Vietnam, Ethiopia, Uganda, Nigeria, Lybia, Zimbabwe, Russia, Kenya, Ukraine5-10 Tajikistan, Cambodia, Laos, Central African Republic, Congo, Angola, Venezuela, 0-5Turkmenistan, Iran, Haiti, Guinea, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Sudan, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Somalia (6 /54 African)

19191-liner Toward MDGs - what works, what doesntIntroduce the antagonist. Dead aid. 3 points: 1 the trajectory says YES ... but too slow2 transp, sustained, targeted aid works3 its working thanks to few nations & initiativesVisual slides not for note-takingVisual presentation of quantitative dataReveal the holy smokes momentRehearsals beginning mid-late SeptJust before the talk remind yourself of passion

20Our kids will see hunger relegated to museumsTrade barriers

Its their own faultWe already give more than anyone elseTrillions wastedThere are more hungry now than everMDGs are unachievableCorrupt dictatorsCorrupt multinationalsSteady progress MDGsTilted playing fieldThings will get worse no matter what we doMalthusRich nations broke their promises2008 recessionWe never promised 0.7%Trade not aidDiffering mindsets -> confusion. Spot 3 false statements? If can, youve looked below the surface, to where the data are clear. Mindset vs dataset. One must change. 21Refshttp://data.worldbank.org/topic2222MDG progress 2010http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.htmlhttp://www.fao.org/mdg/en/http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml#mdgs

2323MDG Critique & ScenariosMDGs a critique from the south Sept 2010http://allafrica.com/stories/201010010582.html

The MDGs after the CrisisTheMDGsafter the Crisis World bank analyses scenarios. Crisis recovery matters, but not as much as kept promises

2424Deaths (millions) before age 5 in 2006

Only 100,000 a year in the rich countries. Washington DC 17% of babies $285,000 per year2526


Low share of phantom aid60% of US ODA goes to Iraq & Israel2627[US Senator Patrick] Leahy noted that two-thirds of US government aid goes to only two countries: Israel and Egypt. Much of the remaining third is used to promote US exports or to fight a war against drugs that could only be won by tackling drug abuse in the United States.UN Secretary General Kofi Annan noted that the flow of money from poor to rich countries far exceeded total ODA.Funds should be moving from developed countries to developing countries, but the opposite is happening. Funds that should be promoting investment and growth in developing countries, or building schools and hospitals, or supporting other steps towards the Millennium Development Goals, are, instead, being transferred abroad.instead of promoting investment in health, education, and infrastructure development in the third world, this money has been channeled to the North, either because ofdebt servicing arrangements, asymmetries and imbalances in the trade system or because of inappropriate liberalisation and privatisation measuresimposed upon them by the international financial and trading system.27GDP per capita / past 10 years28Recession of 2008 is quite28Its not that complicatedThere is enough for everyone

suffering is widespread & extremeWe know the trajectoryWe know what doesnt work & whyWe know what works & why

Initiatives since the MDGs


Cuba 4.8 (better than Canada, US, UK. NZ, Aus)2930The trajectoryGapminder IMF WB CIA FAO USDA % fed% in povertyChanges in income to 200930What is the dataset?There are data going back to the 1800sGapminderAlso a plethora of tightly focused data from 1960 to 2005The WHO, FAO, World Bank, USDA / ERS, CIA

Comprehesive data to 2009 USDA


313232The focusThere is steady progressThree kinds of aid relief development harm > goodAid that doesnt workAid that does workWhats changing


33Whats the evidence?Progress is steady, but slow Expect it to accelerate We know what works & what doesnt - dead aid?Initiatives since the MDGsNo cause for complacency

3434current and predicted analyzed. Would like to convince you of an opportunity & say why Im pessimisticAssertion vs Evidence35MDGs unachievable?progress is slow - 1% pa (should be 2.5%)$2trillion wasted harm > good?ask instead what works & doesn't? seeds, water, fertilizer, DDT, ARVs Malthus population trumps food?development slows growthNothing helps?spectacular new initiatives Watchful waiting10,000,000 under 535Bill Clinton: Senate Foreign Rlns Ctte: Forced poor to buy US ag products < cost

a disaster - destroyed local agriculture

I did that. I have to live every day with the consequences of lost capacity to produce a rice crop in Haiti to feed those people, because of what I did. Nobody else

36 Aid that helps NATO farmersFarmers lobby (dumping of surplus crops), shipping lobby (less aid). Will anything change??3


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