pipeline spill modeling: from gis-based screening to the ...dakota access pipeline (dapl)...
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Pipeline Spill Modeling:From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level
Jeremy Fontenault
4/13/2017
OVERVIEW
What is modeling?
Regulatory drivers
Levels of modeling
– Basic
– Intermediate
– Advanced
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 2
WHAT IS MODELING?
Answers “what if” questions by making valuable predictions
Prediction based on simplified version of environmental,
physical, and chemical processes
Used to answer a specific question
Provides one possible outcome
Built on assumptions
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 3
REGULATORY DRIVERS
US – 49 CFR Part 195.452
– “identify which pipeline segments could affect a high consequence
area”
US – 40 CFR part 112.20
– Facility Response Plans
Canada – National Energy Board (NEB) - CSA Z662-11
– establish and implement a process for evaluating and managing risk
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 4
RAISING THE BAR: RECENT EXAMPLES
Northern Gateway Pipeline
– Semi Quantitative Risk Assessment (SQRA)
– Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment (EHHRA)
Enbridge Line 3 Replacement
– Full Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in Minnesota
– EHHRA in Canada
Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL)
– Controversial water crossing, EIS nearly required
Trans Mountain Expansion Project
– Qualitative Ecological Risk Assessment
Energy East Pipeline
– EHHRA, Risk Assessment, Financial Assurance
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 5
LEVELS OF PIPELINE SPILL MODELING
Advanced Modeling
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 6
GIS-based Screening
Advanced
Spatially/time varying inputs/outputs
More fates processes
Intermediate
Select release locations
Multiple input variations
Basic
Many release locations
Single set of input conditions
2D Simulations
Capable of releases along
the entire length of a pipeline
3D Simulations
Select water crossings
Trajectory and Fate Modeling
QUESTIONS ANSWERED WITH PIPELINE SPILL MODELING
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 7
AdvancedIntermediateBasic
Where would
oil move if
released?
How quickly could a
spill reach a location
under a range of flow
conditions?
How much oil
could settle on
the river bed?
Where could
spills impact
HCAs?
How much oil could
be released in the
event of a rupture?
How would a
spill in spring
compare to a
spill in winter?
How does route A
compare with
Route B?
What is the
anticipated mortality
rate for species?
What
concentrations
of dissolved oil
could occur?
GIS-BASED SCREENING MODELING
Release simulations performed at defined spacing interval along
the entire length of the pipeline
3 Basic Components:
– Potential release volume calculation
– Overland modeling
– Surface water modeling
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 8
RELEASE VOLUME CALCULATION
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 9
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑹𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝑽𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆 =𝑷𝒖𝒎𝒑𝒆𝒅 𝑽𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆 + 𝑷𝒓𝒆 − 𝑰𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒈𝒓𝒂𝒗𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒅 𝒗𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆 +
𝑷𝒐𝒔𝒕 − 𝑰𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒈𝒓𝒂𝒗𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒅 𝒗𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆
OVERLAND MODELING
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 10
SURFACE WATER MODELING
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 11
MODEL OUTPUTS
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 12
INTERMEDIATE LEVEL MODELING
Uses the same modeling tools
Smaller set of select release locations
Variable set of inputs and settings
Seasonal variables
– Stream flow rates
– Wind speed
– Temperature
– Snow/ice cover
– Land cover
– Shore types
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 13
INTERMEDIATE LEVEL MODELING
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 14
Variable VolumesVariable Products
!. Release Point
Streams
10bbl Release
50bbl Release
100bbl Release
Lakes
INTERMEDIATE LEVEL MODELING
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Variable Pipeline RoutesVariable Valve Locations
ADVANCED MODELING
3D quantitative trajectory and fate modeling
At specific water crossings or water bodies
More fates processes simulated (next slide)
Increase in the number and complexity of:
– Inputs
– Outputs
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 16
ADVANCED MODELING: FATES PROCESSES
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 17
3D Transport
Evaporation
Shore oiling
Oil/SPM interactions
Dissolution
Entrainment
Spreading/Dispersion
Degradation
Response Activities– Booming, burning,
collection, dispersant application
MODEL INPUTS
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 18
Currents
Wind speed and direction
Bottom roughness
Suspended sediment
Shore type
Rapids/waterfalls
Depth
Slope
Water temperature
Response activities
MODEL OUTPUTS
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 19
– Surface oil thickness
– Shoreline oil thickness
– Subsurface oil concentration
(Total or Dissolved
Aromatics)
– Surface oil concentration
– Shoreline oil mass
– Mass of oil in the sediment
– Dissolved oil concentration
Spatial and time varying:
* Can be broken down by oil component (BTEX, MAHs, PAHs, aliphatics)
SUMMARY
Different types/levels of modeling answer different questions
The best modeling approach depends on the question being asked.
Determine that question before you begin any modeling
The current climate for pipeline construction is leading to more complex questions and therefore more complex analysis. To address this, expanding the level and complexity of modeling performed will be required.
Pipeline Spill Modeling: From GIS-Based Screening to the Next Level 20
