pipeline research council confidential international, inc
TRANSCRIPT
PRCI EC-2-9 (2019)
Peer Review of the Plausible Profiles (Psqr)
Corrosion Assessment Model
Pipeline Research Council
International, Inc.
Shahani Kariyawasam, Shenwei Zhang
Jason Yan
Terry Huang
Mohammad Al-Amin
Erwin Gamboa
San Diego
October 24, 2018
Confidential
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PRCI 2019 project: EC-2-9 – Peer Review of the Plausible
Profiles (Psqr) Corrosion Assessment Model
Objectives
o Peer review and vet the Psqr model developed by TransCanada(TC)
o Share method and benefits – common goals of safety & optimization
o Provide mainstream methodology for industry
Execution plan
oConduct PRCI workshops with related SMEs, with options of
➢Workshop #1- June 20th 2018 at PRCI TDC in Houston
➢Workshop #2- September 26th 2018 in Calgary (during the IPC tutorial time)
oObtain peer reviewed report with feedback from official reviewers
➢John Kiefner, Michael Rosenfeld, Ming Gao/Ravi Krishnamurthy, Phil
Hopkins, Andrew Cosham and Maher Nessim
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3Roles and Responsibilities
Time Role and Responsibilities
Before
workshops
▪ Reviewers will be contacted by John Kiefner
▪ Reviewers and PRCI member participants will be provided with a pre-
read
At the
workshops
▪ TC presents model to invited expert reviewers and PRCI members
▪ TC discusses safety aspects, cost benefit, applicability etc.
▪ Reviewers & PRCI members participate in workshop
▪ All – discuss, provide constructive feedback
After
workshops
▪ Reviewers review technical report
▪ Reviewers’ comments and feedback provided to John Kiefner(JK)
▪ JK collates all comments and discusses with TCPL and reviewers
▪ JK provides final report to PRCI
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Current Status
▪ Two workshops completed
▪ TransCanada’s technical report under review
▪ Software sharing in progress
▪ Preliminary PRCI report including collated comments by John
Kiefner completed by end of 2018
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Background
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▪ Corrosion - major integrity threat - ~70% of digs, ~80% of ILIs
▪ Key integrity decisions that use Assessment models
o ILI anomalies to excavate?
o Excavated anomalies to repair?
o Derate required?
▪ Decisions are most sensitive to
o Model error
o ILI measurement error
o Growth rates
Problem – The Challenge
Sensitiv
ity f
acto
r
Reliability factor
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What is a Desirable Model?
Pipeline
section
Total
number of
Clusters
Excavation decision – number of features with
FPR ≤ 1.25
B31G MB31G RSTRENG
1 23502 868 600 154
2 650 130 96 20
3 169 16 12 6Confidential
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Learnings
▪ Learnings from operations
➢Large morphologies-caused failures but models developed on simple
clusters
➢Many excavations/derates with wide corrosion
▪ Learnings from RSTRENG Development Project
➢ river bottom profile - the worst case but not probable for wide corrosion
➢circumferential separation and strengthening due to higher WT
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Objective
RSTRENG is conservative for wide corrosion - gives large number of excavations
Objective:
▪ Improve the RSTRENG model for assessing large corrosion
morphologies
o reduce conservatism while improving safety
o quantify model error
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The Journey
Burst tests on 14 corrosion
clusters (2015)
Identified areas of conservatism
in RSTRENG
Developed Psqrmodel and software
Sensitivity studies and validation
Performed Pilot studies to see
impact
Internal and external
Technical review
Performed 16 more tests and refined (2018)
Communicate –PRCI, CEPA, IPC
(Patent pending)
Further Industry review and sharing
(PRCI project)
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Psqr Overview
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Overview of ASME B31G Models
Method Shape idealizationShape
Factor (SF)
Flow
Stress
F(YS)
M
B31G 2/3 1.1 * YS Two-term , M1
Mod. B31G 0.85dL method
0.85 YS + 10 ksi Three-term, M2
Mod. B31G eff. area method
(RSTRENG)
deff /dmax_Aeff YS + 10 ksi Three-term, M2
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Conservatism in Corrosion Idealization
Deep
Shallow
River bottom profile
(most aggressive but not plausible for
wide corrosion morphologies)
Plausible
profile 1
Plausible
profile 2
Plausible
profile 3
Plausible
profile…
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Input Required by the Model - 3D Mapping … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …
… 12 9 8 8 10 8 7 7 4 0 0 0 6 11 16 12 12 5 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 …
… 16 9 8 8 9 10 10 9 6 2 1 0 9 15 21 15 17 11 12 8 5 3 4 0 0 0 …
… 16 10 8 8 9 11 11 10 9 6 7 4 15 19 23 20 22 17 15 12 8 5 6 2 0 0 …
… 16 10 8 8 9 11 11 11 11 9 10 10 19 24 27 23 26 24 18 15 13 8 7 4 0 1 …
… 17 11 9 9 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 13 20 28 31 24 27 26 21 18 16 11 7 4 0 1 …
… 18 11 11 11 13 13 12 11 11 10 11 16 21 28 31 26 27 28 23 20 18 14 10 5 3 4 …
… 18 11 15 12 14 14 14 11 11 11 11 16 22 27 31 30 28 28 25 22 20 16 12 8 5 5 …
… 18 14 18 14 15 14 15 11 13 12 13 17 23 25 29 30 30 28 28 24 22 17 12 12 6 6 …
… 16 15 18 18 17 14 15 12 13 13 14 20 23 25 27 31 33 33 33 25 25 19 16 15 11 7 …
… 14 16 17 19 17 15 15 13 14 13 15 20 26 26 27 31 39 41 42 30 26 21 20 17 13 7 …
… 14 16 17 19 17 15 15 14 15 14 15 19 26 28 28 37 44 45 47 36 30 24 23 18 14 8 …
… 14 13 16 19 16 14 14 16 15 15 16 19 26 28 28 39 48 49 54 43 36 27 26 19 14 10 …
… 12 13 15 17 13 13 14 16 15 15 16 18 25 28 28 39 48 53 58 47 41 29 26 21 16 11 …
… 10 12 13 14 12 12 13 14 14 14 16 18 24 28 30 33 47 56 60 51 45 30 27 23 17 12 …
… 7 10 10 11 10 12 13 12 12 13 12 16 22 27 30 32 44 57 60 53 48 31 27 23 17 13 …
… 4 7 9 10 9 11 12 12 11 12 11 15 20 27 29 30 41 57 58 54 49 34 26 23 17 13 …
… 4 5 8 8 7 10 12 11 10 11 10 14 18 26 29 30 39 54 57 54 49 35 26 24 17 13 …
… 2 5 4 6 7 10 11 11 6 9 9 13 17 23 27 30 36 51 53 54 48 38 27 24 17 13 …
… 2 3 3 4 6 9 10 9 5 3 5 11 18 22 26 30 32 48 51 52 48 38 28 22 18 12 …
… 1 2 2 2 4 8 9 8 4 1 1 9 18 22 26 29 31 41 47 47 45 39 27 21 18 12 …
… 1 1 2 2 3 6 7 7 3 0 0 8 18 25 26 27 28 34 41 43 39 39 26 21 18 12 …
… 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 6 1 0 0 8 18 25 26 26 27 31 34 38 34 37 23 20 18 12 …
… 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 8 18 24 26 26 27 29 28 33 30 30 21 18 14 12 …
… 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 7 16 24 26 25 26 27 25 28 27 26 18 15 12 11 …
… 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 15 21 26 24 26 27 24 25 26 24 18 14 11 9 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 13 20 24 24 26 27 24 24 23 23 17 13 11 8 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 13 19 22 24 26 27 24 21 21 22 17 12 11 7 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 14 18 21 24 26 26 24 21 19 22 16 12 9 6 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 12 15 18 21 24 24 26 24 21 18 20 14 13 9 5 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 12 15 18 21 23 21 24 22 21 17 16 13 12 9 4 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 12 14 18 20 23 21 22 20 20 16 14 12 11 8 3 …
… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …
Longitudinal Direction (Length)
Circum
fere
ntial D
irection
(W
idth
)
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15 Plausible Profiles & Pressure Calculation
Longitudinal Direction (Length)
… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …
… 12 9 8 8 10 8 7 7 4 0 0 0 6 11 16 12 12 5 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 …
… 16 9 8 8 9 10 10 9 6 2 1 0 9 15 21 15 17 11 12 8 5 3 4 0 0 0 …
… 16 10 8 8 9 11 11 10 9 6 7 4 15 19 23 20 22 17 15 12 8 5 6 2 0 0 …
… 16 10 8 8 9 11 11 11 11 9 10 10 19 24 27 23 26 24 18 15 13 8 7 4 0 1 …
… 17 11 9 9 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 13 20 28 31 24 27 26 21 18 16 11 7 4 0 1 …
… 18 11 11 11 13 13 12 11 11 10 11 16 21 28 31 26 27 28 23 20 18 14 10 5 3 4 …
… 18 11 15 12 14 14 14 11 11 11 11 16 22 27 31 30 28 28 25 22 20 16 12 8 5 5 …
… 18 14 18 14 15 14 15 11 13 12 13 17 23 25 29 30 30 28 28 24 22 17 12 12 6 6 …
… 16 15 18 18 17 14 15 12 13 13 14 20 23 25 27 31 33 33 33 25 25 19 16 15 11 7 …
… 14 16 17 19 17 15 15 13 14 13 15 20 26 26 27 31 39 41 42 30 26 21 20 17 13 7 …
… 14 16 17 19 17 15 15 14 15 14 15 19 26 28 28 37 44 45 47 36 30 24 23 18 14 8 …
… 14 13 16 19 16 14 14 16 15 15 16 19 26 28 28 39 48 49 54 43 36 27 26 19 14 10 …
… 12 13 15 17 13 13 14 16 15 15 16 18 25 28 28 39 48 53 58 47 41 29 26 21 16 11 …
… 10 12 13 14 12 12 13 14 14 14 16 18 24 28 30 33 47 56 60 51 45 30 27 23 17 12 …
… 7 10 10 11 10 12 13 12 12 13 12 16 22 27 30 32 44 57 60 53 48 31 27 23 17 13 …
… 4 7 9 10 9 11 12 12 11 12 11 15 20 27 29 30 41 57 58 54 49 34 26 23 17 13 …
… 4 5 8 8 7 10 12 11 10 11 10 14 18 26 29 30 39 54 57 54 49 35 26 24 17 13 …
… 2 5 4 6 7 10 11 11 6 9 9 13 17 23 27 30 36 51 53 54 48 38 27 24 17 13 …
… 2 3 3 4 6 9 10 9 5 3 5 11 18 22 26 30 32 48 51 52 48 38 28 22 18 12 …
… 1 2 2 2 4 8 9 8 4 1 1 9 18 22 26 29 31 41 47 47 45 39 27 21 18 12 …
… 1 1 2 2 3 6 7 7 3 0 0 8 18 25 26 27 28 34 41 43 39 39 26 21 18 12 …
… 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 6 1 0 0 8 18 25 26 26 27 31 34 38 34 37 23 20 18 12 …
… 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 8 18 24 26 26 27 29 28 33 30 30 21 18 14 12 …
… 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 7 16 24 26 25 26 27 25 28 27 26 18 15 12 11 …
… 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 15 21 26 24 26 27 24 25 26 24 18 14 11 9 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 13 20 24 24 26 27 24 24 23 23 17 13 11 8 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 13 19 22 24 26 27 24 21 21 22 17 12 11 7 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 14 18 21 24 26 26 24 21 19 22 16 12 9 6 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 12 15 18 21 24 24 26 24 21 18 20 14 13 9 5 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 12 15 18 21 23 21 24 22 21 17 16 13 12 9 4 …
… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 12 14 18 20 23 21 22 20 20 16 14 12 11 8 3 …
… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …
Cir
cu
mfe
ren
tia
l D
ire
cti
on
(W
idth
)
P3
Pn
Pi
P2
P1
…
P
Pb
tProfile 1
tProfile 2
tProfile 3
tProfile i
tProfile n
…
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Psqr Results
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Pressure Calculation Using Psqr Model
Effective Area
Calculation
PRESSURE
Probabilistic Distribution of Pressure
Pb
0 0 0 7 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 12 17 18 16 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 6 13 15 20 25 27 39 41 41 40 42 35 24 15 11 8 5 3 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 10 8 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 12 18 19 18 9 5 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 9 9 14 16 20 22 25 32 39 41 41 43 35 24 16 11 9 4 0 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 6 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 11 13 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 11 18 19 18 11 5 2 1 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 9 9 15 17 20 21 24 29 38 40 41 43 36 24 17 11 10 3 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 3 11 15 11 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 8 17 18 18 12 5 2 3 1 5 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 9 9 15 18 20 19 21 26 34 38 39 41 37 24 17 12 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 3 9 15 12 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 5 13 18 16 12 4 3 5 3 7 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 7 9 15 18 20 19 21 23 27 35 36 40 38 26 17 13 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 3 6 14 12 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 6 5 6 16 15 12 3 3 5 5 11 5 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 14 18 19 19 21 22 24 32 34 40 38 27 18 14 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 3 3 9 8 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 7 5 5 9 10 9 3 3 6 8 17 7 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 12 15 17 19 21 22 24 30 31 39 38 31 18 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 6 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 9 7 4 3 4 4 3 4 7 11 20 11 8 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 11 15 16 18 21 22 24 26 30 36 36 31 20 15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 0 4 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 5 7 10 9 5 1 2 4 4 4 8 13 21 15 9 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 11 14 15 18 21 23 24 23 25 32 31 32 20 13 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 7 8 11 10 5 1 0 4 4 5 8 14 21 18 9 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 13 14 14 18 20 24 24 23 24 26 28 29 19 13 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 7 7 9 11 10 5 1 0 4 4 5 7 14 19 18 9 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 13 13 14 17 20 24 23 23 23 21 24 27 15 11 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 10 11 8 8 10 10 8 5 0 0 4 4 4 7 14 16 17 9 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 13 13 13 15 18 24 23 24 21 19 20 20 13 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 3 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 17 18 11 10 11 10 8 3 0 0 2 4 4 6 12 11 14 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 7 12 12 13 14 17 20 21 22 18 17 14 16 10 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 4 4 6 3 4 1 1 0 0 1 6 14 24 23 23 16 15 12 13 8 3 1 0 2 7 4 6 11 6 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 0 7 10 12 13 14 15 13 16 19 17 16 11 12 9 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 5 8 9 7 7 4 3 0 1 4 11 22 32 27 27 20 20 14 17 10 6 1 0 3 9 6 5 6 3 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 1 0 0 7 8 11 12 13 13 11 12 15 12 13 11 10 7 7 3 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 7 10 13 9 8 6 5 2 2 6 14 26 33 30 33 26 26 20 21 13 8 2 0 4 9 7 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 3 1 0 0 6 7 9 9 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 8 7 5 3 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 9 13 15 12 12 9 9 3 3 6 14 26 33 36 37 30 32 26 24 15 10 6 1 4 7 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 4 6 7 6 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 4 3 3 1 0 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 4 10 16 22 16 16 11 10 5 3 7 14 27 34 40 41 36 36 31 25 17 11 7 5 5 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 3 6 5 8 10 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 4 2 3 2 3 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 5 7 11 20 27 21 24 13 10 7 4 8 14 28 39 40 44 41 38 34 27 19 12 9 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 7 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 1 1 2 4 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 1 8 7 11 21 29 27 29 15 10 8 6 8 14 28 40 41 47 41 41 35 28 20 12 9 6 5 4 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 7 10 10 9 8 9 8 6 8 7 5 1 1 2 6 8 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 4 4 9 8 11 21 29 30 34 17 13 8 7 8 12 27 40 44 49 44 41 36 30 21 13 9 6 5 7 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 10 10 11 8 9 8 6 6 5 5 1 0 4 8 10 8 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 6 6 10 9 10 21 29 32 36 21 14 9 8 9 11 22 40 48 50 44 41 36 33 24 15 9 5 5 7 1 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 8 11 11 12 10 9 8 6 2 2 4 2 0 4 8 12 11 9 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 7 7 10 9 10 18 27 33 36 24 14 9 8 9 11 17 37 48 50 45 40 36 34 26 16 9 5 5 7 2 3 3 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 9 12 14 12 11 10 8 6 1 0 3 2 2 5 10 14 13 13 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 11 10 13 9 11 16 25 33 34 26 14 11 8 10 11 14 34 46 50 46 41 36 34 26 17 7 6 7 7 5 5 5 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 10 12 14 12 12 11 8 5 0 0 2 2 3 7 12 15 14 15 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 14 11 14 11 11 16 21 29 31 26 14 11 8 10 11 14 30 42 48 47 41 36 31 26 17 7 8 8 8 6 6 6 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 10 12 13 12 12 11 8 5 0 0 0 2 4 7 14 17 17 16 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 14 14 15 13 10 14 15 23 28 26 14 9 8 10 10 13 23 40 44 47 42 35 29 25 17 8 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10 10 12 11 11 9 8 4 0 2 0 2 4 8 16 18 19 17 12 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 5 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 14 15 15 13 8 10 12 18 23 23 14 9 5 8 7 12 15 35 38 44 42 35 27 23 14 10 10 10 9 8 9 7 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10 10 10 11 10 9 6 4 0 2 1 1 4 8 16 20 19 17 12 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 9 10 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 11 15 12 12 6 7 10 13 17 18 12 9 4 6 6 12 11 29 34 41 39 35 24 19 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 8 10 10 11 10 9 6 5 0 4 3 1 3 8 15 20 20 16 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 11 10 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 11 11 8 9 5 5 7 11 11 15 10 8 2 5 6 10 10 22 27 37 35 34 22 15 11 11 12 10 11 11 8 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 8 10 10 11 10 9 7 6 0 5 4 1 3 8 12 18 20 15 10 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 9 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 10 8 7 6 3 3 4 8 8 11 8 5 0 3 5 7 9 12 16 33 30 31 21 13 11 12 12 11 11 11 8 8 9 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 8 11 10 11 10 9 7 8 0 5 5 2 5 7 9 13 18 13 7 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 8 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 8 6 4 4 1 3 2 7 8 8 4 3 0 3 4 5 6 9 10 28 25 26 18 13 8 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 8 11 10 11 9 8 7 8 4 6 7 5 6 7 8 10 15 11 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 7 4 3 3 0 1 0 5 8 7 3 2 0 2 3 3 5 9 8 20 20 23 12 11 7 11 13 12 12 13 9 9 9 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 7 10 10 11 9 8 7 8 6 6 8 6 7 7 8 9 11 9 5 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 4 4 2 0 0 1 2 3 5 6 7 12 11 16 8 8 7 11 13 12 13 15 12 10 9 4 4 3 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 7 10 10 11 9 8 7 7 7 6 9 7 9 7 8 9 9 6 4 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 5 5 5 11 6 9 6 7 7 11 13 12 13 15 15 11 9 6 5 3 3 1 6 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 9 9 10 10 11 9 8 6 7 7 6 9 7 9 8 8 9 9 5 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 2 9 5 7 5 6 8 10 13 12 14 14 15 12 9 7 6 3 4 6 7 4 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 9 10 10 10 11 9 8 7 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 4 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 7 3 2 4 5 7 9 13 12 14 14 15 13 9 7 6 5 4 6 7 5 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 10 10 11 10 11 9 8 6 6 6 4 8 8 10 9 9 7 7 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 1 2 1 4 4 3 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 7 10 12 11 8 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10 12 15 19 20 19 19 20 20 16 11 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 10 11 10 14 15 18 20 20 22 26 28 28 16 7 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 3 2 3 3 5 4 3 0 4 1 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 10 11 10 8 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 10 12 16 22 21 19 19 21 20 16 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 7 8 10 10 12 14 17 18 20 20 22 25 26 13 5 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 4 1 1 6 3 4 4 6 2 2 3 3 0 2 5 6 10 11 8 5 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 11 12 16 25 22 22 18 19 20 16 13 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 6 6 7 9 10 10 11 15 16 20 17 18 19 23 12 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6
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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 4 3 4 9 10 8 7 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 9 10 13 19 27 25 21 18 17 13 6 5 3 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 8 8 8 5 4 3 4 3 3 2 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 4 7 3 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 4 3 4 7 7 8 9 4 5 6 7 8 7 4 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 9 10 12 14 21 22 20 17 16 13 6 5 3 0 1 0 1 1 3 4 6 9 9 9 7 4 5 4 3 3 3 5 6 6 8 9 10 9 9 6 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 4 3 4 5 4 7 10 5 5 5 7 9 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 8 9 10 13 19 19 19 16 16 12 6 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 4 5 7 9 11 9 7 4 5 5 3 4 3 4 5 6 8 8 10 11 10 7 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 4 3 4 3 2 5 8 5 5 5 7 9 7 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 9 10 12 13 16 18 15 15 11 6 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 4 5 7 9 11 9 7 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 5 5 6 7 9 11 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 3 4 2 1 4 4 5 5 5 8 9 7 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 9 10 12 12 12 15 15 15 10 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 3 4 7 9 9 8 6 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 5 4 5 7 9 11 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 3 2 1 0 3 4 4 5 6 8 9 7 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 7 10 12 12 12 14 14 14 9 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 3 3 5 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 3 2 2 5 4 4 7 9 10 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2
Long. direction
Circ. d
ire
ctio
n
3D measurement Input
(depth, length and width)
...Profile n
Plausible Profiles
PRSTRENG PtestConfidential
18
Evolution Map of Model Development
NG-18 Equation
(toughness-independent)
1.1 ×YS YS + 10 ksi
B31G
0.67dL Method
Mod. B31G-0.85dL
Method
0.85dL Method Effective Area Method
River Bottom Profile Plausible Profiles (Psqr)
Mod. B31G-Effective Area
MethodPsqr
SF = 0.67 SF = 0.85 SF = f(effective area)
Two-term BF Three-term BF
Parabolic Profile Arbitrary Profile
RSTRENG
Flow
stress
Bulging
Factor
Shape
Factor Confidential
19
Burst Test Results
Compared to RSTRENG, Psqr is less conservative and more
precise
Confidential
20
Model Uncertainty
▪ Model error: test-to-prediction ratio
o actual pipe properties
o laser scan: lab controlled minimized error
ParameterTest-to-prediction ratio
Psqr method RSTRENG
Mean 1.13 1.31
Std 0.07 0.10
COV (%) 5.9 8.0
▪ Psqr vs RSTRENG
o Psqr has higher accuracy and precision
compared to RSTRENG
o 14% reduction in model bias
o 30% reduction in standard deviation
Confidential
21
Benefit and Safety
Confidential
22
Case Studies
▪ Case I: 154 immediate features with FPR≤1.25
Model Number of features with FPR ≤ 1.25
RSTRENG 154
Psqr 31
80% reduction in feature excavations required
▪ Case II: 170 excavated features
Model Number of features with FPR ≤ 1.25
RSTRENG 44
Psqr 5
89% reduction in feature repairs required
Confidential
23
Expanded Case Studies
Cluster
Dataset
Total
Number
of
Features
Excavation decision – Number of Features with FPR ≤ 1.25
B31G MB31G RSTRENG Psqr
ILI Data
23502 868 600 154 31
650 130 96 20 6
169 16 12 6 4
Cluster
Dataset
Total
Number of
Features
Repair decision - Number of Features with FPR ≤ 1.25
B31G MB31G RSTRENG Psqr
Laser Scan
data
84 81 77 15 0
6 6 6 2 0
▪ ILI by different ILI vendors
▪ Field-measurements on different pipe sections
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Results and Impact to Operators
Major PI threat -Corrosion
Model highly
sensitive to Shape
Decisions most sensitive to Model
Decisions that drive actions
High Value creation
much less digs/repairs
More Precise and Accurate
model
Plausible profiles
Improve Shape
representation
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Applicability and Regulations
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Applicability
▪ API 5L X Grade Pipes
▪ Any corrosion clusters, greater benefit for wider corrosion
▪ The limits of RSTRENG are also applicable (e.g. maximum depth,
brittle failure)
Notes:
oILI reporting capability developed with ROSEN, Baker Hughes, and GE
(BHGE)
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Regulations
▪ To select the corrosion assessment method CFR 192 & 195 and CSA Z662
refer to:
▪ ASME B31G standard or methods
▪ PRCI PR3-805 report
▪ ASME B31G-2012 allows:
▪ use of a level 3 analysis based on user-defined methodology
▪ PRCI PR3-805
▪ acknowledges the limitation of RSTRENG method and discussed the idea of using
multiple profilesConfidential
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Regulations
▪ Section 1.6 of ASME B31G-2012:
▪ “A Level 3 evaluation is a detailed analysis of a specific flaw in accordance with a user-
defined methodology, with full justification for loadings, boundary conditions, material
properties, and failure criteria. It is intended that a Level 3 evaluation be conducted by a
technical specialist having appropriate expertise in the subject of fitness-for-service
assessment.”
▪ Section 1.8 of ASME B31G-2012, also allows the use of other evaluation
methods.
▪ “Other evaluation methods may evolve or come into use which were not contemplated by
this document. It is not the intention of this document to prohibit their use, but the user of
such methods shall be able to demonstrate that the objective of a safe and reliable
assessment of metal loss can be achieved.”This is the objective of this workshop and the PRCI project
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Regulations
▪ PRCI PR3-805 acknowledges the limitation of RSTRENG method and
discussed the idea of using multiple profiles. Here is the excerpt from PRCI
PR3-805 regarding multiple profiles:
“A final point that must be made with regard to any type of profile
representation of metal loss is that some excess conservatism will always be
present when the deepest parts of the corrosion are not lined up along the
axis of the pipe and when deeper portions of the pitting are separated by
islands of greater remaining wall thickness. Within the present state of
technology, it is not practical to deal analytically with these variables.”
The current state of technology enables dealing with these variables and that is what Psqr achieves.
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Contact Information
▪ Shahani Kariyawasam
▪ Shenwei Zhang
▪ Jason Yan
TransCanada Pipelines LtdConfidential
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Reference
▪ V. Chauhan, J. Brister and M. Dafea. A review of methods for assessing the
remaining strength of corroded pipelines. Report prepared for US Dept. of
transportation, pipeline and hazardous materials safety administration, Report No.
6781; 2009.
▪ J. F. Kiefner and P. H. Vieth. A Modified Criterion for Evaluating the Remaining
Strength of Corroded Pipe. PRCI Report: PR-3-805, 1989.
▪ J. F. Kiefner, P. H. Vieth and I. Roytman. Continued validation of RSTRENG. PRCI
Report: PR-218-9304, 1996.
▪ B. N. Leis, X-K Zhu, and T. McGaughy. Assessment of Corrosion Model Error for
Metal-Loss Defects in Pipelines. PRCI Report: PR-185-143600, 2016
▪ S. Kariyawasam, and L. Huyse, 2012, “Providing safety-Using probabilistic or
deterministic methods”. Proceedings of the 2012 9th International Pipeline
Conference, IPC2012-90546
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Reference
▪ W. Zhou, C. Gong and S. Kariyawasam. Failure Pressure Ratios and Implied
Reliability Levels for Corrosion Anomalies on Gas Transmission Pipelines.
Proceedings of the 2016 11th International Pipeline Conference, IPC2016-64383,
2016
▪ A. C. Benjamin, et al. 2016 “ Interaction of Corrosion Defects in pipelines-Part 1:
Fundamentals”. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 144, 56-62
▪ A. C. Benjamin, et al. 2016 “ Interaction of Corrosion Defects in pipelines-Part 2:
MTI JIP Database of Corroded Pipe Tests”. International Journal of Pressure Vessels
and Piping, 145, 41-59
▪ A. C. Benjamin, et al. 2007 “ Analysis of Pipeline Containing Interacting Corrosion
Defects”. Experimental Techniques, 74-82Confidential