pimrc 2006 mobile tv’s future boom or bust? · pimrc 2006 mobile tv’s future boom or bust? 13...

M. Humphrey – PIMRC 2006 Helsinki – assuredcommunications™

PIMRC 2006

Mobile TV’s FutureBoom or Bust?

13 September 2006

Marlis [email protected]

Director Strategic Marketing TelcoBroadcast Communications Division


• Marlis Humphrey is director of Strategic Marketing - Telco for Harris Corporation, Broadcast Communications Division. She is responsible for development of the company’s market growth initiatives in IPTV, Mobile TV and Video Backhaul.

• Ms. Humphrey has a bachelor’s degree in Russian with minors in both mathematics and computer science from Knox College, Galesburg, IL. She received a master’s degree in management of technology from the University of Miami.

• Prior to joining Harris in 1999, Ms. Humphrey was president of Vitreous Communications, Inc., a consulting firm focused on broadband access. Previously, she was with AT&T Paradyne, where she was director of Business Development for Broadband Access Products and responsible for strategic planning for ATM Products. Ms. Humphrey also worked at AT&T Bell Laboratories where she was involved in planning for Broadband Multimedia Products and Services.

• Ms. Humphrey serves as vice chairman of TIA TR-47 which is developing mobile TV standards. For eight years, she led The ATM Forum Board of Directors as chairman and has participated in the ATIS IPTV Exploratory Group, Broadband Content Delivery Forum, ANSI T1E1, the DSL Forum, the UAWG, the MMCF, ETSI TM6, ITU-T SG15, and the Frame Relay Forum. Within T1E1, she served as chair of the CAP/QAM RADSL Ad Hoc and editor of “TR59—September 1999—Single-Carrier Rate Adap-tive Digital Subscriber Line (RADSL).” ).” She is an internationally noted speaker and author published in Data Communications, Business Communications Review, Telecommunications Magazine, IEEE Network magazine, OEM Magazine, CIO Magazine, Computer World, LAN Times and others.

• Harris Corporation is an international communications technology company focused on providing assured communications™ products, systems, and services for government and commercial customers in more than 150 countries. The company’s operating divisions serve markets for government communications, RF communications, broadcast communications, and microwave communications.

Marlis Humphrey


Broadcast CommunicationsBusiness Strategy

18951895 19221922 19571957 19691969 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

New

Mar

ket L

eade

rshi

pA

cqui

sitio

ns

GatesRadio

Founded

Gates Radio

1972 General Electric’s TV product line1988 Allied Broadcast Equipment1991 Midwest Comm. Systems Division1991 TVT1997 ITIS and NEBL1998 Intraplex

Leitch PRELouth

Hirschmann

Over $800M Invested Since 2003

OSI Aastra Digital Video

QDIEncoda

A Solid Evolution toRich Digital Media Leadership

HarrisFounded1st PatentObtained

Printing AnalogRadio

AnalogTV

MediaNetworking

DigitalTV

ContentManagement

DigitalRadio

IPTV

MobileTV


1. Increase ARPU2. Increase Ad-

Based Revenue3. Reduce Churn

Why Mobile TV?

1. Wider Distribution

2. New Production Opportunities

3. Drive Users to Content via Traditional Channels

1. “Live” News2. Boredom

Avoidance Entertainment

3. Don’t Miss the Show Sports & Entertainment

4. Location-Specific News

ConsumerConsumer Content ProviderContent ProviderContent AggregatorContent Aggregator

Network OperatorNetwork OperatorService ProviderService Provider


Mobile TV – The End Vision

• Usage Capability– LF and SF viewing persistent connection

across any environment.• Cross Screen• Cross Service• Any Content

• Mass Deployment– 3000M Mobile Subscribers 2010– 500M Mobile TV Subscribers 2011 (IMS)– 66M Mobile TV Subscribers (Jupiter)

• Business Results– Investment Payback


• Incomplete Technology & Standards

• Compelling Content

• Content Rights

• Spectrum

• Device Cost

• Regulation

• Industry Convergence / Transformation

Mobile TVMobile TVHurdlesHurdles


What is the Measure of Success?

• Some Cost Estimates– Qualcomm: $800M Roll Out Cost; $70M Spectrum– Crown Castle/Modeo: $1.0B Roll Out; $12M

Spectrum– U.K.: $300-500M (DVB-H) + DAB– U.S.A. Cellular to date $250B

• Some Revenue Estimates– $900M U.S. through 2010 (Jupiter)– $276M U.K. through 2010 (Jupiter)


What Will Success Require?

Air InterfaceAir InterfaceSpectrumSpectrum

E2E SystemsE2E SystemsMobile TV EcosystemMobile TV Ecosystem

Cross IndustryCross IndustryBusiness ModelsBusiness Models

Cross PlatformCross Platform


Broadcast Mobile TV

DVB-H FLO T-DMB or Video over DAB

VHF170 to 230 MHz

UHF470 to 806 MHz

L-Band1400-1900 MHz

CommercialActivity

PotentialSpectrum

No SpectrumPlanning

HarrisTransmitters


UHF vs. L-Band

UHFTransmitters typically in purpose-built transmission facility with adequate HVAC & often staffed by an operating staff.

L-BandRoof-top or cell-site, often open-air requiring a climate-controlled transmitter design (convection-cooled approach or HVAC unit attached to seal rack unit).Higher power

transmitters are often liquid-cooled, requiring outside space for heat exchange units.

Transmission sites are often mountain tops near an urban area, high-rise buildings within the urban area, or 300-600 meter towers.

Roof-top sites may require securetransmitter installation. If roof top, the antenna may be low profile, and mounted near the transmitter.


Mobile TV Value Chain


What Have We Learned?

• Consumer Adoption• Technology & New Service Adoption

– WiFi– DSL– IPTV– Mobile TV

• Cross Platform Adoption


Harris Participation in MajorMobile TV Trials

• Arqiva (UK)– 9 transmitters, 500 users– Trial through 2006– Devices: Nokia, Sony, O2– UHF frequency, DVB-H

modulation

• Bridge Networks (Australia)

– Higher power 3 kW test transmitters

– Trial started 2005– UHF frequency, DVB-H

modulation

• KPN (Netherlands)– Multiple transmitters,

limited users– Technical trials started

Summer 2005– Partnering with Digitenne,

Nozema, and TNO. – Handset: Nokia 7710

• Swisscom (Switzerland)– Several low-power transmitters– Trial started Fall 2005– 26 TV program channels and basic

interactive services – Handset: Nokia 7710

• Modeo (U.S.)– 9-site trial in Pittsburgh; installing sites

in NYC – Handsets: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung– 1.67 GHz frequency, DVB-H

modulation

• MediaFLO USA– OFDM, similar to DVB-H– Trials in San Diego, Harris in labs– UHF channel 55– Handsets: Kyocera, LG, Pantech,

Samsung, Sanyo, and Sharp


Consumer Interest is Mixed

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Germany Finland U.K. U.S.


Total Content Delivery

Agency Business Systems DAM Delivery Networks

Production cost control, tracking and

Media Planning & Buying systems

Media Sales, Program and Advertising

scheduling & Financial control

systems

Content Transcoding, Management, Catalog and

Tracking

Broadcast Transmission Control and Management

systems of video stream

Routing of Content & Signal to the

consumer across various delivery

platforms


Mobile TV Revenue Growth

Consumersare willing to

pay for content

Advertiserswant totarget

consumers

Mobile TV providersneed systems to support both


National

DMA 1 DMA n

Zone 1 Zone n

Zip 1 Zip n

Zip+4 1 Zip+4 n

HH/STB 1 HH/STB n

Individual 1 Individual n

Cable Broadcast TV

Mobile TV Opportunity

1

2101

42,000+2

298,395,5373

110,213,9101

1 Nielsen Research, Sep 20052 US Postal Service, Mar 20063 US Pop Clock, Mar 2006

DBSMoTV


Revenue & Operational ROI

6Cross-Platform

Ad Services

5Targeted

Ad Services

4

Regional Ads

3

National Ads

2Subscriber

Rollout

1Infrastructure

Rollout

6Cross-Platform

Ad Services

5Targeted

Ad Services

4

Regional Ads

3

National Ads

2Subscriber

Rollout

1Infrastructure

Rollout


Generic Model for NetworkingStandards - Phases

Architecture

Services & ApplicationsServices & Applications

Adaptation/InterworkingAdaptation/Interworking

TransportTransport

Market Requirements

Market TrendsForecasts & Deployment

External RelationsMgmt

Promotion

Newsletter

Web

Events

Education

Best Practices Recognition

Government Affairs

TestInteroperability & Certification

OSS/Management

SecurityPhase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3


Lessons from Wi-Fi

Mountain View, CA, January 8, 2004 −The Wi-Fi Alliance announced today that over 1,000 products from over 120 leading manufacturers have received certification since testing began in March 2000. Recent test data released by the Wi-Fi Alliance indicates that wireless LAN interoperability and performance continue to be an issue for products without Wi-Ficertification.


802.11 Standards Development

97 98 99 00 01 02 03

IEEE 802.117 years old

IEEE 802.111/2Mb/s

Standard

IEEE 802.11b11Mp/s

Standard

IEEE 802.11a54Mp/s

Standard

IEEE 802.11gStandard

IEEE 802.11n100Mb/s+

IEEE 802.11Roaming,QoS, etc.

1000 Products120 Manufacturers

Certified

Wi-FiFormed

Wi-FiCertification

Begins

ApproachingCellular

Handsetsin Volume

50M Units25M Units

Indu

stry

A

ssoc

iatio

nM

arke

t Pe

netr

atio

nSt

anda

rds


The Impact of Certification – The Vendors Win

Wi-Fi Global Sales Volume (millions)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Volume Drives Price

802.11 Chipset Pricing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Pric

e (U

SD)

Note: Price reflects current technology node: 802.11b for 1999 – 2002 and 802.11g for 2003 - 2005


The Market Accelerates - Consumers & Service Providers Win

Wi-Fi Retail Price

0

50

100

150

200

250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Pric

e (U

SD)

Note: Price reflects current technology node: 802.11b for 1999 – 2002 and 802.11g for 2003 - 2005


WiMAX looking to Repeat the Formula

Regulatory

Mandatory requirements for Type Approval and deployment.

Interoperability

Standards that may be enforced bythe customers.

Trade Organizations

Collect requirements, educate industry and promote trade and favorable regulatory environment.


Evolution of DSL

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

•SDSL •Trials•DSP•Simple DSLAM (ATU-Cs)•Simple ATU-R•RT/DLC

•Volume Ship Begin•Costs Drop•Multi-mode Chips•Quad Chips•Smart DSLAM•SVC•VDSL & Lite

•Truck Roll•Low Power•Hi Density•Integrating•PCMCIA•Soft Modem•GatewaysIm

plem

enta

tion

D

eplo

ymen

t •CLEC Fizzle•72 Port Cards•15M Consumers•Post Install Truck Roll•Automated Loop Mgmt Systems

•Line code•Base PMD

•TC/PMD•IP vs. ATM

•Billing•Spectrum Mgmt•SVC•VDSL•Multiservice•Service Mgmt (CORBA)•Test Suites

•Test•SNMP•E-E Arch•Netwk Migration•Handshake•Dual Latency•Auto Config•Sleep Mode•Prem Netwk•Prem Gateway•Security•Encaps/Tunnel

•Lite•IP vs. ATM

Stan

dard

s

•SHDSL •Dynamic Interoperability Testing•Auto-Configuration•Flow-Thru Service Provisioning•DSL Anywhere

•VOD •Internet Data •Multi-Service(Telephony)•E-Commerce•Multi-Service Provider•ResidenceM

arke

t D

rive

rs

•Business•Multi-Tenant

•Multi-Media•VOD•DTV•CapExPressure


The Impact of Interoperability Testing & Certification

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

•June 2002DSL Forum Launches ITL Program

Impl

emen

tati

on

Dep

loym

ent

•15M Consumers •140M Consumers40M in 20051.5M IPTV Consumers


DSL Forum – Functional View

ArchitectureArchitecture•System Reference & Service Models, Roadmaps, Network Migration Strategies/Scenerios,

Interfaces/Configurations, Requirements, End-to-End Packet Mode Architecture w/ Tunneling & Service Selection, CPE Architectures, VDSL Evolution, Core Network Architectures

•GX-FSAN

Services & Applications•VoDSL, MTU, Multimedia over DSL

•ATMF, HomePNA, BCDF

Services & ApplicationsServices & Applications•VoDSL, MTU, Multimedia over DSL

•ATMF, HomePNA, BCDF

Adaptation/Interworking•Packet Networks, Cell Networks,

Framing/Encapsulation,Protocols @ U interface for Accessing

Legacy Data Networks•ATMF, IETF

Adaptation/Adaptation/InterworkingInterworking•Packet Networks, Cell Networks,

Framing/Encapsulation,Protocols @ U interface for Accessing

Legacy Data Networks•ATMF, IETF

Transport•Single- or Multi- Carrier Line Code agnostic,frame-mode xport, line code channelization,Splitterless & w/ Splitter Recommendations•T1E1, ETSI TM4, ITU-T SG15Q4, TR30.3

•VDSL Coalition, UAWG, GX-FSAN

TransportTransport•Single- or Multi- Carrier Line Code agnostic,frame-mode xport, line code channelization,Splitterless & w/ Splitter Recommendations•T1E1, ETSI TM4, ITU-T SG15Q4, TR30.3

•VDSL Coalition, UAWG, GX-FSAN

Market Market RqtsRqts. &. &ForecastsForecasts

External RelationsExternal RelationsMgmtMgmt

Promotion &Promotion &EducationEducation•ITU-D•Interop Demos•Summits•Ambassador Prog•Deployment Stats•Point&Click Maps•Newsletter•Trade Shows•Glossary/FAQs•BoF•Service ProviderAction Council•Best Practices•Circle of Excellence

TestTest•Conformance/ICS,

•Dynamic Interoperability•TR30.3, TR41.9,

•Independent Testing Laboratory,OpenVoB

OSS/ManagementOSS/Management•ILMI, SNMP/MIB, CMIP, •Network Element Mgmt,

CORBA EMS-NMS Functional Req’ts & I/F,Billing, AutoConfguration,

Service Flow-Thru Management•OBF, T1M1, IETF, ATMF, TMF

SecuritySecurity•LAES/CALEA

•TR45


Can IPTV Repeat the Formula?

ATIS IIF – Principal Functions“a much larger ecosystem”


Competing/ComplimentaryMobile Video Terrestrial Delivery

Packet Cellular Video Mobile Broadcast Television

Washington, DC

• One-to-One, point-to-point• Services: short video clips• Global infrastructure: >$1000B• Cellular tower sites: >1 million

• One-to-millions, point-to-multipoint• Services: broadcast TV, video on demand

• Projected infrastructure cost: $30B• Projected broadcast sites: <100,000

“An even larger Ecosystem”


Mobile TVNetworkOperationsCenter

Local Mobile TV Transmitter

Local Content

Local Mobile TV Transmitter

On-Demand Programming Order

IP Content Server

H.264 or VC-1Transcoder

Multiplexer

DRM/Subscription/V.O.D. Servers

MPEG-2 ProgramsMPEG-2 ProgramsMPEG-2 Programs

MulticastVideo

Network Distribution

3G Network

SubscribedUnicast Content

Broadcast Mobile TV Framework

Product Key:

Mobile TV Transmitters

Encoding & Multiplexing

Servers, Routers, DAs

Content Management

Network Management

Microwave Links

Cellular Networks

Traf

fic &

Bill

ing

Syst

ems

SubscribedMulticast Content


Mobile TV Reference Architecture


Charting the Course to Successful Mobile TV Deployment

1. Air Interfaces & Devices can be a 6 year proposition– Repeat the Success of WiFi, DSL, xG Cellular

2. Leverage IPTV Ecosystem and Convergence learning

3. Harness the Ad-based Revenue Engine


Questions?

Marlis HumphreyDirector Strategic Marketing - TelcoHarris Broadcast Communications

[email protected]

pimrc 2006 mobile tv’s future boom or bust? · pimrc 2006 mobile tv’s future boom or bust? 13...

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