1 a ) D r a w a n a n n o t a t e d d i a g r a m f e a t u r i n g t h e G r e e n h o u s e e ff e c t [ 5 ]

Qn requirements:

• Diagram [2] with detailed explanation of causes of Greenhouse effect [3]

• Features to be included:

• Greenhouse gases - water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs

• Radiation (long-wave, short-wave, etc)

Greenhouse effect:

• refers to the increasing temperature of the lower atmosphere (troposphere) as a result of the heat trapping effect of gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and CFCs.

• Such gases allow in-coming short-wave radiation to pass through but block outgoing long-wave radiation.

• An entirely natural process, essential for life on earth

• However, human activity is increasing the concentration of these gases further increasing tropospheric temperatures causing enhanced greenhouse effect.

1 b ) O u t l i n e t h e l i ke l y i m p a c t s o f t h e G r e e n h o u s e e ff e c t . [ 8 ]

• Describe and explain the consequences and effects of global warming

• Give at least 4

1 ) C l i m a t i c & H y d ro l o g i c a l I m p a c t s Increase in temperatures precipitation & moisture affected (reduced or irregular rainfalls)

Agriculture world-wide affected especially for poorer tropical & subtropical countries dried up cereal fields cereal production reduced (e.g. decline in USA’s grain belt)

Shrinking of wetlands (rivers & waterfalls may dry up)

Droughts (SEA, Brazil 1997-8 after ENSO event)

Underground aquifers will not be recharged by rainfall irrigation & hydroelectric power schemes hindered imbalance between demand & supply of water engineering plans developed to cope with shortage

Warmer temperatures changes in position of Polar jet streams Southern shift of jet stream cyclonic conditions

move into warmer waters intensify into powerful storms

Storms are likely to be stronger if enhanced greenhouse effect continues create problems for weather forecasters due to less time to predict the storms course delayed emergency response

2 ) I n l a n d We a t h e r • More extreme climates in interior locations of

continents (e.g. Great Plains of North America)

• Drier summers with colder winters

• Areas with maritime climates (e.g. British Isles) will experience higher temperatures – wetter winters & long, dry summers

3 ) D i s t r i b u t i o n o f fl o r a a n d f a u n a As a result of changes in global temperatures, distribution of F&F will shift to different latitudes

• Places vulnerable to change may become extinct areas which once supported lush vegetation may suffer from desertification

• However, many new areas may develop new capacity to grow different crops in areas which once did not support their growth (e.g. auberines or melons in Britian)

4 ) D i s e a s e s • Shifts in climatic belts possible spread of diseases

into non-tropical areas

• Range of tropical diseases (malaria, cholera) increase as temperatures rise

• Rise in death rates in some parts of the world, especially where medical facilities are poor increased pressure on medical services

• Kenya – after 1997 ENSO event, parts of Kenya received over 1000mm of rainfall during 6 months which is normally considered to be the ‘dry season’. Receding flood waters created ideal mosquito spawning pools More than 500 people died of malaria

5 ) M e l t i n g p o l a r i c e c a p s & r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s • Disappearance of glaciers in the Alps & reduction in

snow cover

skiing industry affected in British isles

• Increase in snow melt:

increase in peak discharge of rivers increase occurrence of floods (Bangladesh)

Rise in sea levels flooded low-lying areas (Maldives, Egypt, Netherlands), possible loss of thousands of hectares of farmland in East Anglia in the British Isles

Ecosystems affected due to loss in flora & fauna species loss in biological diversity

1 c ) D i s c u s s t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h h u m a n a c t i v i t i e s a r e t h o u g h t t o a ff e c t t e m p e r a t u re a t b o t h t h e l o c a l a n d g l o b a l s c a l e [ 1 6 ]

• “to what extent” qn.

1. How human activities affect local & global temperatures – [8]

2. Other factors - [8] (e.g. El Nino, La Nina)

H u ma n Ac t i v i t i e s - LO C A L(i) Concentration of human activities in urban areas result

in an urban microclimate (Urban Heat Island effect)

Normal building materials – non-reflective & absorb heat during the day

Higher thermal capacity (dark colored roofs, concrete or brick walls, tarmac roads) good capability of storing heat during the day & releasing it at night

Low albedo – incoming insolation absorbed than reflected

Generation of dust & pollution (Car fumes, factories & power stations) act as heat absorbing units or condensation nuclei for clouds to form

Use of air conditioning, fridges, aerosols release of CFCs

H u ma n Ac t i v i t i e s - G LO BA L• Generation of greenhouse gases (world-wide)

which accelerates global warming

(i) Deforestation (reduction of carbon sink)

o loss of vegetation on a large scale reduces EVPT, decreases precipitation

o Increase in amount of carbon dioxide due to absence of photosynthesis & decomposition of cleared vegetation more heat being stored higher global temperatures

(ii) Agriculture & Increase in cattle production (land-use changes)

o Changing agricultural practices use of nitrate fertilisers release of NO2

o Overgrazing expose darker colored soils & loss of vegetation with waxy leaves decrease in surface albedo increase in absorption of incoming solar radiation

o Increase in output of methane

(iii) Urbanisation

o combustion of fossil fuels in power stations & transport (increase in CO2, NO2)

o Mining activities & oil exploration – release of methane

O th e r Fa c to r s - LO C A L1. Presence of Vegetation

• Thick forest canopies act as blanket to prevent much of the incoming radiation (insolation) from reaching forest floor. Much insolation is absorbed by leaf cover diffused insolation

• Relatively waxy leaves in tropical rainforest high albedo, hence reflect much insolation cooler temperatures during the day

• Leaf cover prevent much terrestrial radiation from occurring keep heat within the under-canopy so during the night, net out-going energy is greater than net incoming energy in surrounding areas of rainforests warmer temperatures in rainforest at night

O th e r Fa c to r s – G LO B A L

• Variations in Solar Energy – Sunspot Activity Dark regions which form on the surface of the sun: peaks

every 11 years changes the amount of energy emitted by the sun to the earth

Occurrences of sunspots reduces total insolation received by the earth lower temperatures globally

• Changes in Earth’s Geometry & the Milankovitch Cycles Changes in Eccentricity – earth’s orbit around the sun

changes from elliptical to near circular every 100,000 years

Obliquity of the Plane of the Ecliptic – variation in the tilt of the earth, every 40,000years, greater tilt = greater contrast between summer and winter temperatures in middle & high latitudes

Precession of Equinoxes – axis of the earth moves around slowly every 20,000years, affecting the distance of the equator from the sun on midsummer’s day.

• Other factors: El Nino, La Nina

2 A ) S C I E N T I S T S AR E C O N C E R N E D T H AT H I G H E R G R E E N H O US E G A S C O N C E N T RAT I O N S A R E ' E N H A N C I N G ' T H E G R E E N H O U S E E F F E C T A ND T H U S L E A D I N G T O G LO B AL C L I M AT E C H A NG E . W H AT E V I D E N C E S U G G E S T S A D I S C E R N I B LE H U M AN I N F LU E N C E O N G LO BA L C L I M AT E AN D T O W H AT E XT E N T H A S T H E C H A N G E I M PAC T E D T H E E A RT H ? [ 1 6 ]

16m : 4 points

Approach: 1. Evidence of human influence

2. Change in climate

Impacted the earth

1 . I N D U S TR I A L I S AT I O N• Industrialisation is increasing at an rapid rate today

Release of carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuels resulted in the increasing release of CO2pollution

• Increases the atmospheric absorption and emission of terrestrial infrared radiation (greenhouse effect), resulting in warming of lower atmosphere and cooling of the stratosphere.

• Evidence: CO2 emissions have risen from 320 CO2 parts per million to 390 CO2 parts per million

• Impact: Global potentially a major influence on climate and biological activity

I N D U ST R I A L I S AT I O N (2 )• (i.e. In North America, species are almost uniformly moving

their ranges northward and up in elevation in search of cooler temperatures.

• Birds like the little egret, that was previously only seen in the Continent, is now frequently spotted in southern England and even the north and the midlands.

• International examples include the pika, a small rodent found in Yosemite national park in North America, that has moved 1,700ft (500m) uphill over the last century.

• Moths on Mount Kinabalu in Borneo have moved 220ft (67m) uphill over the 40 years, despite the fact little else has changed in the national park.)

2 . U R BA N I S AT I O N

• Increased car ownership particulate emissions from diesel engines, NOx, volatile organic compounds, Carbon monoxide and various other hazardous air pollutants including benzene.

•  Motor vehicles are calculated to generate about 20% of the European Union's man-made CO2 emissions, with passenger cars contributing about 12%

• Increase in dark surfaces increases surface albedo

• Release of heat (thermal pollution) Warms the lower atmosphere directly.

• Changes surface albedo and evapotranspiration and causes aerosols causes urban heat islands

• The annual mean air temperature of a city with 1 million people or more can be 1.0–3.0 °C warmer than its surroundings. In the evening, the difference can be as high as 12 °C

• Likelihood of longer, more intense heat waves Australia- for the week ending 4 January 2014, average maximum temperatures were 8°C or more above normal in southern inland Queensland. By 9 February Canberra had recorded 16 days above 35°C this summer, compared to the long-term average of 5.2 days.

DE F O R E STAT I O N

• Forests store an enormous amount of organic carbon which is released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide when forests are cleared by burning

• As carbon dioxide accrues, it produces a layer in the atmosphere that traps radiation from the sun. The radiation converts to heat which causes global warming, which is better known as the greenhouse effect

• Deforested areas land heats up faster and reaches a higher temperature

• Tropical deforestation is responsible for approximately 20% of world greenhouse gas emissions

• Tropical deforestation releases 1.5 billion tons of carbon each year into the atmosphere

AG R I C ULT UR E

• Release of trace gases (e.g., nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, or methane) that increase tropospheric ozone by photochemical reactions Large atmospheric heating occurs from tropospheric ozone, which enhances both solar and greenhouse heating of lower atmosphere. Local to regional at present, but could become a significant global climatic warming if large-scale fossil fuel use leads to combustion products that significantly increase tropospheric ozone levels; contact with ozone also harms some plants and people.

• Evidence:At a global scale, the FAO has recently estimated that livestock (including poultry) accounts for about 14.5 percent of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions estimated as 100-year CO2 equivalents

• At a national level, livestock represents up to half of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions. 

• Livestock sources (including enteric fermentation and manure) account for about 3.1 percent of US anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions expressed as carbon dioxide equivalents, according to US EPA figures compiled using UNFCCC methodologies.

1 .   Lo s s o f s e a i c e• Evidence:

• The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.

• Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades.

•  In 1988, ice that was at least 4 years old accounted for 26% of the Arctic's sea ice. By 2013, ice that age was only 7% of all Arctic sea ice

2 .   Ac c e l e ra te d s e a l e v e l r i s e

• Evidence:

• Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century. The rate in the last decade, however, is nearly double that of the last century.

• Republic of Maldives: Vulnerable to sea level rise

2 b ) Wh a t i n i t i a t i v es a re b e i n g i mp l e m en t e d t o h e l p s o l v e t h e p ro b l em o f g l o b a l w a rm i n g ? [9 ]

Approach: 4 initiatives

KYO T O PR O T O C O L• International environment treaty produced at the United

Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED).

• Treaty intends to stabilize greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

• Kyoto Protocol establishes legally binding commitments for the reduction of 4 greenhouse gases (CO2, CH2, NO2, F6S) and 2 groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons)

• General commitments for all member countries

KYO T O PR O T O C O L (2 )

• Under Kyoto, industrialized nations agreed to reduce their collective GHG by 5.2% compared to year 1990.

• National limitations ranged from 8% reductions for the EU and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan & 0% for Russia.

• Treaty permitted GHG emission increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.

AS I A- PAC I F I C PA RT N E R S H I P O N C L E A N D E V E LO PM E N T A N D C L I M AT E

• Agreement among 7 Asian-Pacific nations: Australia, Canada, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and USA.

• These 7 countries are responsible for more than half of the world's carbon emissions.

• Official launch in 2006, Sydney, Australia

A S I A - PAC I F I C PA RT N E R S H I P O N C L E A N D E V E LO P M E N T A N D C L I M AT E ( 2 )

• Foreign, Environment and Energy Ministers from partner countries agreed to co-operate on the development and transfer of technology which enables reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that is consistent with and complementary to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and other relevant international instruments, and is intended to complement but not replace the Kyoto Protocol.

• Unlike the Kyoto Protocol (currently unratified by the United States), which imposes mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions, the Partnership engages member countries to accelerate the development and deployment of clean energy technologies, with no mandatory enforcement mechanism.

I N T E R G OV E R N M E N TA L PA N E L O N C L I M AT E C H A N G E ( I P C C )

• Scientific intergovernmental body tasked to evaluate the risk of climate change caused by human activity

• Panel established in 1988 by World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

• Do not carry out research or monitor climate and its related phenomena. Rather, it's role is to publish special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

• IPCC bases its assessment on peer reviewed and published scientific literature, and is only open to member states of WMO and UNEP

• Reports widely cited in almost any debate related to climate change

E U R O P E A N UN I O N E M I S S I O N T RA D I N G S Y S T E M

• Largest multi-national emissions trading scheme• Also a major pillar of EU Climate Policy• Covers >10000 installations in energy and industrial

sectors which are collectively responsible for close to half of EU's emissions of CO2 and 40% of its total GHG emissions

• Under EU ETS, large emitters of CO2 within EU must monitor and annually report CO2 emissions

• Every year, they are obligated to return an amount of emission allowance to the government that is equivalent to the CO2 emissions in that year

QU ES T I ON 3 A ) DE SC R I B E T HE C AUS ES O F T H E EL N I NO S OU T HE R N O SC I LL AT I ON AND T H E K I ND OF EF FE C T S I T HAS ON GLO BAL CL I MAT E [ 16 ]

C a u s e s o f E N S O The warming of the Pacific as a result of the weakening of trade winds that normally blow westward from South America toward Asia.

• Easterly trade winds drag warm surface water from coast of Peru and cause colder deep ocean water to come to the surface (upwelling).

• Upwelling causes the thermocline to be much shallower in the Eastern Pacific than in the western. Trade winds and equatorial upwelling maintain warm sea surface temperatures at the western equatorial Pacific and cold surface temperatures in the east.

• When trade winds weaken, the equatorial upwelling decreases, the thermocline gets deeper, the ocean surface along coast of South America becomes warmer, causing trade winds to weaken even more

• This in turn causes surface waters in eastern Pacific to become even warmer

EL N IÑO - SO U T H A M E R I C A1. ↑ rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean, including

several portions of the South American west coast.

2. Peru and Ecuador face very wet months (April-October) which causes major flooding when the event is strong or extreme

3. Along the west coast of South America, El Niño reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water that sustains large fish populations, which in turn sustain abundant sea birds, whose droppings support the fertilizer industry. The reduction in upwelling leads to fish kills off the shore of Peru.

4. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than normal conditions, but mainly during the spring and early summer. Central Chile receives a mild winter with large rainfall, and the Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano is sometimes exposed to unusual winter snowfall events. Drier and hotter weather occurs in parts of the Amazon River Basin, Colombia, and Central America.

EL N IÑO – N O RTH A M E R I C A• Winters, during the El Niño effect, are warmer and drier than

average in the Northwest, northern Midwest, and northern Mideast United States, so those regions experience reduced snowfalls. Meanwhile, significantly wetter winters are present in northwest Mexico and the southwest United States, including central and southern California, while both cooler and wetter than average winters in northeast Mexico and the southeast United States (including the Tidewater region of Virginia) occur during the El Niño phase of the oscillation

• Wind magnitude is greater during El Niño years than during La Niña years, due to the more frequent cold frontal incursions during El Niño winters, with its effects can last from a few hours to six days.El Niño is credited with suppressing hurricanes, and made the 2009 hurricane season the least active in 12 years.

EL N IÑO – A F R I C A , A S I A & A U ST RA L I A• In Africa, East Africa — including Kenya, Tanzania, and the White

Nile basin — experiences, in the long rains from March to May, wetter-than-normal conditions. Conditions are also drier than normal from December to February in south-central Africa, mainly in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Botswana. Direct effects of El Niño resulting in drier conditions occur in parts of Southeast Asia and Northern Australia, increasing bush fires, worsening haze, and decreasing air quality dramatically. Drier-than-normal conditions are also in general observed in Queensland, inland Victoria, inland New South Wales, and eastern Tasmania from June to August.

• As warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific, it takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific. Singapore experienced the driest February in 2014 since records began in 1869, with only 6.3 mm of rain falling in the month and temperatures hitting as high as 35 °C on 26 February. The years 1968 and 2005 had the next driest Februaries, when 8.4 mm of rain fell

EL N IÑO - E U R O P E A N D O T H E R S• El Niño's effects on Europe appear to be strongest in winter.

Recent evidence indicates that El Niño causes a colder, drier winter in Northern Europe and a milder, wetter winter in Southern Europe. The El Niño winter of 2009/10 was extremely cold in Northern Europe but El Niño is not the only factor at play in European winter weather and the weak El Niño winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe, and the Alps recorded very little snow coverage that season.

• Many ENSO linkages exist in the high southern latitudes around Antarctica. Specifically, El Niño conditions result in high pressure anomalies over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, causing reduced sea ice and increased poleward heat fluxes in these sectors, as well as the Ross Sea. The Weddell Sea, conversely, tends to become colder with more sea ice during El Niño. The exact opposite heating and atmospheric pressure anomalies occur during La Niña. This pattern of variability is known as the Antarctic dipole mode, although the Antarctic response to ENSO forcing is not ubiquitous.

L A N I Ñ A - N O RTH A M E R IC A

• La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño, above-average precipitation across the northern Midwest, the northern Rockies, Northern California, and the Pacific Northwest's southern and eastern regions. Meanwhile, precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states is below average. This also allows for the development of many stronger-than-average hurricanes in the Atlantic and less in the Pacific.

• The synoptic condition for the Tehuantepecer is associated with high-pressure system forming in Sierra Madre of Mexico in the wake of an advancing cold front, which causes winds to accelerate through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Tehuantepecers primarily occur during the cold season months for the region in the wake of cold fronts, between October and February, with a summer maximum in July caused by the westward extension of the Azores-Bermuda high pressure system. Wind magnitude is weaker during La Niña years than El Niño years, due to the less frequent cold frontal incursions during La Niña winters, with its effects can last from a few hours to six days. La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1983,1988, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2010, and 2011.

• In Canada, La Niña will, in general, cause a cooler, snowier winter, such as the near-record-breaking amounts of snow recorded in the La Niña winter of 2007/2008 in Eastern Canada.

L A N I Ñ A - S OU T H A M E R I C A

• During a time of La Niña, drought plagues the coastal regions of Peru and Chile. From December to February, northern Brazil is wetter than normal. La Niña causes higher than normal rainfall in the central Andes, which in turn causes catastrophic flooding on the Llanos de Mojos of Beni Department, Bolivia. Such flooding is documented from 1853, 1865, 1872, 1873, 1886, 1895, 1896, 1907, 1921, 1928, 1929, and 1931.

L A N IÑA – AFR ICA AND AS IA• Africa: La Niña results in wetter-than-normal

conditions in Southern Africa from December to February, and drier-than-normal conditions over equatorial East Africa over the same period.

• Asia: During La Niña years, the formation of tropical cyclones, along with the subtropical ridge position, shifts westward across the western Pacific ocean, which increases the landfall threat to China. In March 2008, La Niña caused a drop in sea surface temperatures over Southeast Asia by 2 °C. It also caused heavy rains over Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia.