1. 1. 1. Ri ro v gi ca cc thnh phn trong chui c ph 2. Gi tr li l g? 3. Th trng phi sinh l g? 4. Hng i no cho s giao dch hng ha? 5. Cc ln sng tiu th c ph trn th gii v ti Vit Nam Ngnh c ph Vit Nam thi ton cu ha Hip hi c ph Bun Ma Thut TP. Bun Ma Thut, 30/6/2015 Nguyn Hong M Phng menfuong@gmail.com
2. 2. S thay i trong kinh doanh c ph ti Vit Nam TI XY DNG TRUYN THNG PHNG THC MI KINH DOANH C PH CNG C TI CHNH TON CU HA TRUYN THNG T DO HA XUT KHU + CTXK, DNTN, I L + TRI PHIU HNG HA + CHNG TH GI KHO CTXK QUC DOANH /NGN HNG TN DNG C PH THC # HP NG K HN C PH THC DNG DI CHUYN CA C PH THC & C PH GIY
3. 3. Cc thnh phn trong chui c ph nng dn hng rang xay Middlemen (i l, cng ty xut khu, hng kinh doanh) u vo u ra
4. 4. Cc loi gi c ph Nhn chung th gi c ph th gii c th phn chia nh sau: Gi c ph thc (physicals): gi c ph nhn Gi hp ng k hn (futures contract): gi (c th) trong tng lai theo cht lng c chun ha Mc chnh lch (differentials): l mc gi kt ni gia gi hng thc vi gi hp ng k hn Ch s (indicators): gi tnh theo cc nhm c ph
5. 5. Ngun hnh: http://www.gislounge.com/wp- content/uploads/2012/09/coffee-production-map.png Cc loi gi c ph Gi c ph thc
6. 6. Cc loi gi c ph Gi k hn Khi cp n gi k hn, nu ni mt cch chnh xc hn, th phi gi l gi (k hn) ng ca ca phin giao dch hng ngy (trong thi gian lm vic t th 2 n th 6 hng tun, tr nhng ngy ngh l theo quy nh) trn s giao dch k hn (futures exchange), nh ICE Liffe chng hn.
7. 7. Cc loi gi c ph Mc chnh lch (gi tr li) Ch mt loi gi ny thi, nu xt trong thc t kinh doanh c ph, ti Vit Nam thng c bit n vi tn gi gi tr li (hin nay cn c gi l gi cng thm), trn th gii th gi l differential (chuyn ng sang ting Vit c th gi l mc chnh lch); trong khi , nu xt trong mi trng hc thut, cc hc gi gi l basis (chuyn ng sang ting Vit c th gi l c bn). Khi so vi gi k hn ca c ph tiu chun th s c mt khong chnh lch, khong ny bao gm: (1) chnh lch gia cht lng ca tng loi c ph ring bit v cht lng chun trn th trng k hn; (2) iu kin cung - cu; v (3) cc iu khon giao dch (c th l chi ph vn chuyn gia th trng trong nc v a im giao hng c quy nh trong hp ng k hn, chi ph lu kho v/hoc chi ph d hng khi n thng giao hng ca hp ng k hn v.v.)
8. 8. Ch s ICO i din cho bn loi c ph chnh trn th trng quc t - l Arabica Columbia du, Arabica du khc, Arabica Brazil t nhin v nhng loi Arabica t nhin khc, v Robusta. Ch s ny c cng b hng ngy bi T chc C ph Quc t (International Coffee Organization ICO). Thm vo , s dng cng thc tha thun, ICO cng b Ch s tng hp hng ngy (Daily Composite Indicator Price) l s kt hp c 4 loi ch s v cho ra 1 mc gi duy nht lm i din cho tt c c ph. Cc loi gi c ph Ch s ICO (ICO indicator prices)
9. 9. Tn gi gi tr li sn c lin quan n mt v khch hng c bit ICE Liffe. Vi t cch l mt khch hng c bit, ICE Liffe mua c ph khng ung m cn bng th trng trong nhng hon cnh c bit v k thut. Khi cht lng hng ha c chun ha theo quy nh ca ICE Liffe, cn chi ph logistics chnh l chi ph khi giao hng vo h thng kho ca ICE Liffe. Mc chnh lch (differential) to nn bi cc yu t bao gm (1) cht lng c chun ha theo quy nh ca ICE Liffe v (2) chi ph khi giao hng vo h thng kho ca ICE Liffe, c gi l Tenderable Parity. Cc loi gi c ph Gi tr li sn/chun
10. 10. V d
11. 11. Cc loi th trng Th trng giao ngay (spot market) gi c ph thc Th trng k hn (futures market) gi k hn Th trng giao sau (forward market) mc chnh lch (phng thc price-to-be-fixed (PTBF)) ** Khc bit ln nht ca giao dch giao sau (forward) vi giao dch giao ngay (spot) khng phi ch giao hng ngay hay giao hng sau m chnh l giao dch giao sau c k kt vigi ng ngy hm nay, ch khng phi gi hm nay.
12. 12. Mc ch ca th trng phi sinh Trc tin, n tn ti phc v cho nng dn. Th hai, n tn ti thc hin mt trong nhng chc nng s khi ca n l xc inh gi (price discovery). Nhng mc ch quan trng nht ca th trng phi sinh c l l qun tri ri ro (risk management). Th trng phi sinh cng phc v cc mc ch khc, nh khi nh gi cc hp ng phi sinh s nng cao tnh hiu qu thi trng (market efficiency) cho cc ti sn c s. Th trng phi sinh vi chi ph giao dich thp.
13. 13. S giao dch hng ha Ch hng ha hay ti chnh?
14. 14. M hnh 4 thnh phn Brazil
15. 15. Cc ln sng thng thc c ph Ln sng I
16. 16. Cc ln sng thng thc c ph Ln sng II
17. 17. Cc ln sng thng thc c ph Ln sng II Gn sng (Vit Nam): c ph sch hay c ph mang i (takeaway)
18. 18. Cc ln sng thng thc c ph Ln sng III
19. 19. Cc ln sng thng thc c ph Ln sng IV Nu nh trc y, ngi tiu dng trung thnh vi thng hiu cng ty hn l ngun gc ca ht c ph mnh thng thc, th hin ti, ln sng th t ang manh nha hnh thnh nhn mnh vo vic xy dng mi quan h v minh bch ha thng l mua bn gia nng dn, cng ty xut ln nhp khu, chuyn gia pha ch, cng ty bn l, v ngi tiu dng thng qua truyn thng v ph bin kin thc v c ph.
20. 20. Ni dung chnh 1. Ri ro v gi ca cc thnh phn trong chui c ph 2. Gi tr li l g? 3. Th trng phi sinh l g? 4. Hng i no cho s giao dch hng ha? 5. Cc ln sng tiu th c ph trn th gii v ti Vit Nam
21. 21. Xin cm n! menfuong@gmail.com