phillips 66 first quarter conference call
TRANSCRIPT
PHILLIPS 66 FIRST QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL April 30, 2015
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and
Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and
phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,”
“strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a
statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on
management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this
presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that
are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking
statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include
fluctuations in NGL, crude oil and natural gas prices, and petrochemical and refining margins; unexpected changes in costs for constructing, modifying
or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or disruptions in, adequate and
reliable transportation for our NGL, crude oil, natural gas and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for remedial actions, including
removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to
illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors
affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is under no obligation
(and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise.
This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the
presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
2
3
EXECUTING STRATEGY
4
OVERVIEW 1Q 2015
Adjusted Earnings
Adjusted EPS
Operating cash flow excluding working capital
Proceeds from PSXP debt and equity offerings
Capital expenditures and investments
Shareholder distributions
Adjusted net-debt-to-capital ratio
Annualized adjusted YTD ROCE
$834 MM
$1.51
$880 MM
$1.5 B
$1.1 B
$671 MM
11 %
12 %
Shareholder distributions include dividends and share repurchases
Adjusted net-debt-to-capital ratio is adjusted to exclude the impacts of PSXP
913 834
(30)(67)
173
(130) (25)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing
& Specialties
Corporate
& Other
1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
67 (125) 495 203 194
ADJUSTED EARNINGS 1Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
5
6
MIDSTREAM OVERVIEW 1Q 2015
Transportation Continued stable earnings
DCP Midstream Lower NGL prices
NGL Sweeny Frac One project over 70% complete
Annualized YTD ROCE 6%
97
67
12
(1)
(41)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Transportation DCP
Midstream
NGL 1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MIDSTREAM 1Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
7
65 14 (12)
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
8
CHEMICALS OVERVIEW 1Q 2015
Olefins & Polyolefins Lower cash chain margins
Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Lower margins and costs
Annualized YTD ROCE 16%
270
203
(65) (1) (1)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Olefins &
Polyolefins
Specialties,
Aromatics &
Styrenics
Other 1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
CHEMICALS 1Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
9
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
183 (6) 26
10
REFINING OVERVIEW 1Q 2015
Realized refining margin $12.26/BBL
Worldwide market capture 80%
Refining crude utilization 84%
Clean product yield 84%
Annualized adjusted YTD ROCE 15%
322
495
(114)
79
(4)
212
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Atlantic
Basin /
Europe
Gulf Coast Central
Corridor
Western /
Pacific
1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
REFINING 1Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
11
75 195 71 154
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
15.26
12.26
(1.85)
(2.21)
2.34
(1.28)
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
WORLDWIDE REFINING $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 1Q 2015
12
Avg. Market Crude: $52.31/BBL 84% Crude Capacity Utilization 80% Market Capture
13
MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES OVERVIEW 1Q 2015
Marketing & Other Lower margins
Specialties Continued strong lubes margins
Annualized adjusted YTD ROCE 28%
324
194
(112)(18)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Marketing
& Other
Specialties 1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 1Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
14
144 50
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
(100)
(125)
(9)(5)
(11)
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Net Loss
Net Interest
Expense
Corporate
Overhead Other
1Q 2015
Adjusted
Net Loss
$MM
CORPORATE AND OTHER 1Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014
15
22.4 22.0 22.6 22.0 21.6 21.8
6.2 8.7 8.9
6.2 8.7 7.8
5.4 5.2 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.3
22%
28% 28%
22%
29%
26%
2013 2014 1Q 2015 2013 2014 1Q 2015
Equity $B Debt $B Cash & Cash Equivalents $B Debt to Capital
20% - 30%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE 2013 – 1Q 2015
16
Fully consolidated PSX results PSX excluding PSXP
5.2 5.4
0.9 0.5
1.5
(0.8)
(1.1)
(0.7) (0.1)
December 31
Cash Balance*
CFO
(excludingworking
capital)
Working
Capital
PSXP Bond
& EquityProceeds
Net Debt
Repayment
Capital
Expenditures&
Investments
Shareholder
Distributions
Other March 31
Cash Balance*
$B
CASH FLOW 1Q 2015
17
* Includes cash and cash equivalents
18
OUTLOOK
PHILLIPS 66 FIRST QUARTER 2015 CONFERENCE CALL
Questions and Answers
PHILLIPS 66 FIRST QUARTER 2015 CONFERENCE CALL
Appendix
ESTIMATED SENSITIVITIES 2015
21 Sensitivities shown above are independent and are only valid within a limited price range
Midstream - DCP (net to Phillips 66)
10¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 30
$1/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 25
$10/BBL Increase in WTI price 15
Chemicals - CPChem (net to Phillips 66)
1¢/Lb Increase in Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 35
Worldwide Refining (assuming 91% refining utilization)
$1/BBL Increase in Gasoline Margin 220
$1/BBL Increase in Distillate Margin 200
$1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 50
$1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 40
$1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 15
$1/BBL Widening LLS / Medium Sour Differential (LLS less Medium Sour) 10
$1/BBL Widening ANS / WCS Differential (ANS less WCS) 10
10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (10)
Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators:
Annual
Net Income
$MM
13.86
9.94
(0.29)(0.49)
(2.25)(0.89)
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
ATLANTIC BASIN / EUROPE $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 1Q 2015
22
Market 3:2:1 – Dated Brent / Gasoline 83.7 RBOB NYH / Diesel 15ppm NYH
Brent: $53.97/BBL 87% Crude Capacity Utilization 72% Market Capture
12.67 10.59
(2.40)
(3.00)
3.95
(0.63)
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
GULF COAST $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 1Q 2015
23
Market 3:2:1 – LLS / Gasoline 85 CBOB / Diesel 61 8ppm
LLS: $52.83/BBL 72% Crude Capacity Utilization 84% Market Capture
17.46
13.86
(1.72)
(2.30)
3.30
(2.88)
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
CENTRAL CORRIDOR $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 1Q 2015
24
Market 3:2:1 – WTI / Gasoline Unl Sub Octane Group 3 / ULSD Group 3
WTI: $48.55/BBL 94% Crude Capacity Utilization 79% Market Capture
19.86 16.54
(2.77)
(3.59)
5.44
(2.40)
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
WESTERN / PACIFIC $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 1Q 2015
25
Market 3:2:1 – ANS Spot / Los Angeles CARBOB / Los Angeles No. 2 CARB
ANS: $53.68/BBL 91% Crude Capacity Utilization 83% Market Capture
866 834
(121)
(113)
189 57
(44)
1Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing
& Specialties
Corporate
& Other
1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
67 (125) 495 203 194
ADJUSTED EARNINGS 1Q 2015 VS. 1Q 2014
26
188
67
3
(95)
(29)
1Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Transportation DCP
Midstream
NGL 1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MIDSTREAM 1Q 2015 VS. 1Q 2014
27
65 14 (12)
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
316
203
(100)(12) (1)
1Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Olefins &
Polyolefins
Specialties,
Aromatics &
Styrenics
Other 1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
CHEMICALS 1Q 2015 VS. 1Q 2014
28
183 (6) 26
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
306
495
37
(8)(30)
190
1Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Atlantic
Basin /
Europe
Gulf
Coast
Central
Corridor
Western /
Pacific
1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
REFINING 1Q 2015 VS. 1Q 2014
29
75 195 71 154
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
137
194
51 6
1Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Marketing
& Other
Specialties 1Q 2015
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 1Q 2015 VS. 1Q 2014
30
144 50
1Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings
(81)
(125)
(12)(5)
(27)
1Q 2014
Adjusted
Net Loss
Net Interest
Expense
Corporate
Overhead Other
1Q 2015
Adjusted
Net Loss
$MM
CORPORATE AND OTHER 1Q 2015 VS. 1Q 2014
31
32
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
1Q 4Q 1Q
Phillips 66
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 987$ 1,147$ 1,572$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (115) (385) -
Impairments - 131 -
Pending claims and settlements (38) (10) -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - 30 -
Discontinued Operations - - (706)
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 834$ 913$ 866$
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 1.79$ 2.05$ 2.67$
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 1.51$ 1.63$ 1.47$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
33
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
1Q 4Q 1Q
Midstream
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 67$ 96$ 188$
Adjustments:
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - 1 -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 67$ 97$ 188$
Chemicals
Net Income (loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 203$ 267$ 316$
Adjustments:
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - 3 -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 203$ 270$ 316$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
34
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
1Q 4Q 1Q
Refining
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 538$ 517$ 306$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (5) (369) -
Impairments - 131 -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - 26 -
Pending claims and settlements (38) 17 -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 495$ 322$ 306$
Marketing & Specialties
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 304$ 367$ 137$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (110) (16) -
Pending claims and settlements - (27) -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 194$ 324$ 137$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
35
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
1Q 4Q 1Q
Refining - Atlantic Basin/Europe
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 113$ 57$ 38$
Adjustments:
Impairments - 131 -
Pending claims and settlements (38) 1 -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 75$ 189$ 38$
Refining - Gulf Coast
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 71$ (11)$ 79$
Pending claims and settlements - 3 -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 71$ (8)$ 79$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
36
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
1Q 4Q 1Q
Refining - Central Corridor
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 195$ 182$ 225$
Adjustments:
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - 15 -
Pending claims and settlements - 2 -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 195$ 199$ 225$
Refining - Western/Pacific
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 159$ 289$ (36)$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (5) (369) -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - 11 -
Pending claims and settlements - 11 -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 154$ (58)$ (36)$
2014
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015
37
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
1Q 4Q 1Q
Marketing & Specialties - Marketing & Other
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 254$ 299$ 93$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (110) (16) -
Pending claims and settlements - (27) -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 144$ 256$ 93$
Marketing & Specialties - Specialties
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 50$ 68$ 44$
Adjustments:
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 50$ 68$ 44$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2015 2014
38 * Total equity plus total debt
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
2015 YTD Phillips 66 Midstream Chemicals RefiningMarketing
& Specialties
Numerator ($MM)
Net Income 997 79 203 538 304
After-tax interest expense 56 - - - -
GAAP ROCE earnings 1,053 79 203 538 304
Special Items (153) - - (43) (110)
Adjusted ROCE earnings 900 79 203 495 194
Denominator ($MM)
GAAP average capital employed* 31,132 5,323 5,033 13,526 2,780
2015 Annualized Adjusted YTD ROCE 12% 6% 16% 15% 28%
2015 Annualized GAAP YTD ROCE 14% 6% 16% 16% 44%
39
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Phillips 66
Consolidated
Phillips 66
Partners
Adjusted
Phillips 66
Total Debt 8,949$ 1,100$ 7,849$
Total Equity 22,595$ 801$ 21,794$
Debt-to-Capital Ratio 28% 26%
Total Cash 5,390$ 138$ 5,252$
Net-Debt-to-Capital Ratio 14% 11%
2015
1Q
Millions of Dollars