PhD presentation – REDD+ Guiana Shield Project

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General presentation – PhD:

Context and Objectives

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PhD presentation

• Beginning : october 2013 in Kourou (French Guiana)

– Review of existing litterature

– Identifying main drivers of deforestation and some of the data available in French Guiana

– Training with data manipulation

• Ending : october 2016

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• Bruno Hérault: researcher at CIRAD, leader of the Paracou field station

• Jean-Michel Salles: senior researcher (CNRS), Environmental and Resource Economics, Economics for Biodiversity (associated with the GUYASIM project)

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PhD supervisors

View from the Guyaflux tower, Paracou field station

Institutional Context

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PhD objectives

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General objective

• Modeling future deforestation and forest degradation in the GS in function of different political and socio-economic scenarios

• Produce:

– Better understanding of the drivers of deforestation in the GS

– Future deforestation maps and deforestation trends

– Different socio-economic scenarios

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Building a spatio-temporal model

• Need for quantifying forest cover change over time

• Need for quantifying forest cover change over space

• Finding relationships between observed deforestation and suspected drivers of deforestation in order to be able to explain past and predict future deforestation

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PhD outputs for the project

• Go beyond the objectives of the thesis itself

• Spatio-temporal deforestation model and deforestation maps publicly available

• Linking people from different countries and institution during the investigation process

• Capacity building concerning modelling and statistical tools like R

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First methodological choices

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Deforestation data

• Hansen et al., 2014, Science:

– Spatial resolution: 30x30m (Landsat)

– Temporal resolution: yearly (2000-2012)

– Same methodology for the whole region

– Work published in a high level international journal

• Data quality assessment still to come

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Model programming

• R software will be used :

– Free and open source language

– No interface (knowledge in programming is required) but :

– No blackbox : everything in the model will be explicit and be available after publication of the results

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1rst step : Reflexion on the model’s structure (ex. Guy. Fr.)

• Distinguish between different land characteristics (administrative or not : NA, protected area, area under presence of gold-greenstone, permanent forest estate or other)

• With the help of local experts, identify important deforestation drivers for each kind of zone and their specific dynamics

• Possibility for testing different scenarios

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Example Gold mining(1) 12

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Example Gold mining(2) 12

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Location / Quantification

Future project needs

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General needs

• Local expertise and comments on deforestation maps and deforestation drivers

• Local expertise on deforestation drivers’ future trends

• Local data

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Suggested process (1)

• Validating model structure (sub-models by land characteristics) with data from other countries:

– Road networks;

– River networks;

– Protected areas;

– Geological map (gold-mining areas).

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Suggested process (2)

• Visiting each country to discuss the previous results and learn from local experts about the most important drivers of deforestation and their respective dynamics (july-august)

• Working on modelling past deforestation based on local expertise and data concerning the drivers of deforestation (autumn to winter)

• Elaborating different scenarios with the help of local experts (next year)

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Suggested process (3)

• Meeting with the partners before begining each step of the modeling process

• Followed by 2 or 3 months of personal work, necessary for taking into account remarks and advice

• Cooperation is necessary for correctly modeling the deforestation process as well as for an efficient capacity building in each country

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Thanks for your attention