phase 5 update
DESCRIPTION
Phase 5 Update. Gary Shenk 7/13/05 Modeling Subcommittee. Outline. Sediment Phase5.0 wrap-up Nutrient simulation setup Nutrient input data descriptions. Sediment Pathway in Phase 5. Edge of Field. BMP Factor. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Phase 5 Update
Gary Shenk
7/13/05
Modeling Subcommittee
Outline
• Sediment Phase5.0 wrap-up
• Nutrient simulation setup
• Nutrient input data descriptions
Sediment Pathway in Phase 5
BMP Factor
Land Acre Factor
Delivery Factor
Edge of Field
Edge of Stream
1. Sediment processes are simulated on the land surface resulting in an Edge-Of-Field sediment load.
2. A time series of Best Management Practice (BMP) factors is applied based on available data.
3. A time series of land use acreage factors is applied.
4. A delivery factor based on local geometry is applied (see below), resulting in the Edge-Of-Stream load.
5. Processes of deposition and scour are simulated in the stream, resulting in concentrations that can be compared to observations.
In Stream Concentrations
1. Define Targets
• Pasture => Pasture• Poor Pasture => 9.5 * Pasture• Hay => 1/3 Crop (P4 NRI)• High till with manure => 1.25 * Crop• High till no manure => 1.25 * Crop• Low till with manure => 0.75 * Crop
Agriculture
9%
0.05%
7%
4%
1%
4%
Land use % of model Target relative to NRI estimate
NRI provided direct estimates for Pasture. Poor Pasture is pasture that is heavily trampled near streams. It is a small land use that exports at a high rate. NRI provided estimates for Hay for the phase 2 model. The estimates were generally 1/3 of crop for that data set, so the proportion was kept. Low till is generally 40% lower than High Till, so that ratio was applied with an average value of the NRI estimate.
2. Define Desired Behavior
Runoff, Washoff, and Sed Storage
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
3650 3670 3690 3710 3730 3750Days
wa
ter
(in
/d);
Se
d (
t/d
); S
ed
Sto
r (t
on
s)
surodetswssd
3. Reduce Parameter Set
KSER
Detached Sediment
Soil Matrix(unlimited)
Wash off
Rai
nfal
lD
etac
hmen
t
Att
achm
ent
KRER AFFIXNVSI
Gen
erat
ion
4 parameters, 1 target
Correlation of sediment concentrations for each of 8 scenarios
4. Find Best Values for Parameter Relations and Calibrate
Greater effect of plowingMore hysteresis
Legend
P5 Calibration Stations
# of Observations
0 - 100
101 - 300
301 - 500
501 - 1000
1001 - 5000
River Calibration• Calibrated at ~130 sites with flow
and TSS data.• Used system of rules for hand
calibration.• No method of automated
calibration developed so far.
Potomac Fall Line – Raw Data
‘Windowed’ comparison
• If simulated or observed value is below 10 mg/l set it to 10 mg/l.
• Check simulation for 24 hours before and after observation and set simulated value to point closest to observation.
Of the highest observed and simulated peaks at all calibration stations, almost as many peaks occurred one day apart, but few occurred on two days apart
One day apart – 83% of the same day figure
Two days apart – 19% of the same day figure
Potomac Fall Line
Potomac Fall Line
Status - Sediment
• Phase 5.0 complete
• Refinements expected in land-to-river delivery ratio
• Automated river calibration will be investigated
• Phase 5.x– To come out periodically over the next 18
months, with advances in calibration methods and input data
Nutrient Calibration
BMP factor
Land Acre FactorDelivery Factor
Edge of Field
Edge of Stream
Nutrient CalibrationEdge of Field
• Based on Targets acquired from 3 sources:– Literature Survey– Sparrow analysis of land use– Mass Balance
Nutrient CalibrationEdge of Field
• Calibration Methodology– Calibrate for small trend in nutrient storage
and to hit the targets – Based on experience with phase 4– Hundreds of parameters controlling export;
fewer are sensitive
Trees
Roots Leaves
ParticulateRefractoryOrganic N
ParticulateLabile
Organic N
SolutionAmmonia
Nitrate
SolutionLabile
Organic N
AdsorbedAmmonia
SolutionRefractoryOrganic N
Nitrogen Cycle in Watershed Model ForestA
tmos
pher
ic
Dep
osit
ion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
After HSPF documentation
Trees
Roots Leaves
ParticulateRefractoryOrganic N
ParticulateLabile
Organic N
SolutionAmmonia
Nitrate
SolutionLabile
Organic N
AdsorbedAmmonia
SolutionRefractoryOrganic N
Nitrogen Cycle in Watershed Model ForestA
tmos
pher
ic
Dep
osit
ion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
After HSPF documentation
Land Uses Simulated
• Forest• Harvested Forest
• Low Intensity Pervious Urban• High Intensity Pervious Urban• Low Intensity Impervious Urban• High Intensity Impervious Urban• Bare-construction
• Extractive• Natural Grass
• High Till with manure• Nut Man High Till with manure• Low Till with Manure• Nut Man Low Till with manure• High Till without manure• Hay with nutrients• Nut Man Hay with nutrients• Hay without nutrients• Alfalfa• Nut Man Alfalfa• Pasture• Nut Man Pasture• Trampled• Animal Feeding Operations• Nursery
Differences between p4 and p5
• Phase 4 used a combination of coefficient modeling (PQUAL) and mass balance modeling (AGCHEM). Phase 5 will be all mass balance modeling
• Phase 4 reset the mass balance at the end of each year to stabilize the simulation. In phase 5, we will attempt to stabilize without resetting
• Parameters governing nutrient uptake will change during the simulation to reflect crop makeup.
Nutrient Calibration
BMP factor
Land Acre FactorDelivery Factor
Edge of Field
Edge of Stream
Nutrient Calibration
BMP factor
Land Acre Factor Data Sets Under Development
Nutrient Calibration
Delivery Factor
Phosphorus similar to sediment?
Assume nitrogen targets are already EOS?
Take land-to-river and small stream delivery factors from Sparrow?
Nutrient Calibration
Initial river calibration will be similar to the sediment calibration methodology
Calibration by hand
Determine sensitive parameters
Determine calibration rules
Nutrient Status
• Simulation “on the graph paper”
• Still need some inputs, but we are running sensitivity while we are waiting
Nutrient Inputs
• Dry Atmospheric Deposition
• Crop Uptake
• Manure and Fertilizer Applications
• Septic
Crop Need and Nutrient Uptake
• Model requires monthly max Crop Uptake
Uptake = (Max Yield) * (Nutrient Content)
• Max Yield – Ag Census, STATSGO
• Nutrient Content - from USDA plant nutrient content database.
• Monthly uptake fractions varied by USDA plant hardiness zones
Crop Need on Composite Crop*Phase 4 Crop Need Phase 5 Crop Need
•Crop need calculated for a corn, soy, small grain composite crop after legume credit. Needs range between approximately 50 and 150 lbs / acre for both phases.
Low
High
Nutrient Loading Rules
• Manure stays in a county unless transport data are supplied.
• All fertilizer sold in the model domain is divided between land uses and regions such that all land uses receive a constant multiplier of crop demand, except:
• Nutrient Managed lands receive less nutrients. N or P based.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Nit
rog
en
lb
s/a
cre
Fertilizer N
Manure N
Legume
All Nitrogen Sources 1982-2002
All Phosphorus Sources 1982-2002
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
19
82
19
87
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
Ph
os
ph
oru
s lb
s/a
cre
Fertilizer P
Manure P
Septic Systems
• Calculated from U.S. Census. 1970-1990• Load = fraction on septic * people * load per
person• Fraction on septic extrapolated from trends
(1970, 1980, and 1990). • People from census estimates and projections• Load per person is a constant.• distributed to land-river segments based on low
density residential acreage.
Septic Loading RateSystems per acre Low-Density Total Number of Systems
•Septic Accounts for approximately 4% of total N produced in the watershed. Darker color indicates higher density.
Low
High
New Code
• HSPF13 - Previously available only for Lahey fortran on PC
• Programmed unimplemented intrinsic functions
• Provided ‘work-arounds’ for non-gcc features
• Made linux compilation scripts.
• Submitting to Aquaterra for clean-up.
Schedule
• July – Sensitivity tests and setup
• August – Edge-of-Stream automated calibration
• September – Hand calibration of Rivers
• October – Get phase 5.0 nutrient loads to WQM