pfx hfx ffx scoutf/x evaluating players’ tools with pitchf/x, hitf/x and fieldf/x data. max marchi
TRANSCRIPT
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SCOUTf/xEvaluating players’ tools with PITCHf/x, HITf/x
and FIELDf/x data.
Max Marchi
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Caveats
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Caveats
Examples
Rough (Quick’n’dirty)
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Caveats
Sample size
Examples
Rough (Quick’n’dirty)
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Caveats
Sample size
Interactions
Not in a vacuum
Examples
Rough (Quick’n’dirty)
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Caveats
Sample size
Interactions
Not in a vacuum
Know your precision
Examples
Rough (Quick’n’dirty)
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Pitch characteristics
Pitch type Speed h.mov. v.mov.
Slider 83.9 2.4 2.3
Curve 77.3 5.3 -5.3
Four Seamer 92.1 -6.0 8.6
Four Seamer 92.1 -6.0 8.6
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Pitch characteristics
Pitch type Speed h.mov. v.mov.
Slider
(Gregerson)
83.9
83.3
2.4
5.0
2.3
1.9 byte
Curve
(Isringhausen)
77.3
77.0
5.3
5.8
-5.3
-11.8 break
Four Seamer
(Hochevar)
92.1
91.8
-6.0
-8.7
8.6
7.8 tail
Four Seamer
(Harden)
92.1
92.2
-6.0
-4.8
8.6
11.8 hop
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Deception
“[pitcher’s name]’s change-up looks like his fastball as it leaves his hand”
Think Swing plate
Bud Norris 0.10 0.07 3.3
Raul Valdes 0.02 0.07 4.1
Mark Lowe 0.06 0.08 5.1
Felix Hernandez 0.14 0.09 2.8
Francisco Liriano 0.09 0.09 4.0
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Stamina
“[pitcher’s name] is able to maintain his velocity throughout the game”
(note: 100 = average pitcher’s speed)
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Stamina
“[pitcher’s name] is able to maintain his velocity throughout the game”
(note: 100 = average pitcher’s speed)
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The rest
• Selection/sequencing
• Command/control
• Inducing “fishing”
• …
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Not only the pitchers…
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Blocking
Pitch WP+PB rate
Fastball 0.24%
Change-up 0.49%
Curve 0.60%
Slider 0.73%
Knuckleball 1.37%
Source: Dave Allen (baseballanalysts.com)
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FramingCatcher 50-50 called strike
area
David Ross 3.65
Jose Molina 3.56
Brian McCann 3.54
Ryan Hanigan 3.47
Yadier Molina 3.40
… …
Dioner Navarro 2.92
Gerald Laird 2.85
Jorge Posada 2.82
Kenji Johjima 2.74
Ryan Doumit 2.71
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Game calling
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Controlling the running game
Pitch SB success
Fastball 75%
Slider 80%
Change-up 82%
Curve 84%
Pitch speed
Stolen bases 86.6 mph
Caught stealings 87.1 mph
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Controlling the running game
Source: Jeremy Greenhouse (baseballanalysts.com)
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DisciplineBatter 50/50 swing
area*
Vlad Guerrero 16.3
Jeff Francoeur 13.8
Miguel Tejada 13.4
Ryan Braun 13.3
Carlos Lee 13.0
… …
David Wright 7.1
Magglio Ordonez 7.0
Geovany Soto 6.8
Marco Scutaro 6.6
Mike Cameron 6.2
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The blind spot
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Spray / Hitting to the pitch
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Power
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Power
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Enter FIELDf/x data
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Defense: a number or a chart?
Source: David Pinto (baseballmusings.com)
504480 -24 461477 +16
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Arm
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Arm
Positions when CF releases the ball
Positions when 3B gets the ball
Throwing- strength- accuracy
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First step
- The phrase 'off with the crack of the bat', while romantic, is really meaningless, since the outfielder should be in motion long before he hears the sound of the ball meeting the bat.
Joe DiMaggio
link1
link2
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First step
- The phrase 'off with the crack of the bat', while romantic, is really meaningless, since the outfielder should be in motion long before he hears the sound of the ball meeting the bat.
Joe DiMaggio
link1
link2
- anticipation- reaction
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The pivot
• 6-4-3 Double playsPlay# Time from SS to 2B* Pivot time**
1 .60 .60
2 .40 .40
3 .27 .60
4 .53 .40
5 .53 .40
6 .53 .53
7 .67 .33
* From SS releasing the ball to 2B getting the ball
** From 2B getting the ball to 2B releasing the ball
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Base running
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Jumping out of the box
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Jumping out of the box
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Leading off base
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Leading off basePrimary lead
lead off 1st base (yds)
Fre
quen
cy
0 5 10 15
05
1015
20
Secondary lead
lead off 1st base (yds)
Fre
quen
cy
0 5 10 15
05
1015
20
Jump on contact
jump (yds)
Fre
quen
cy
0 5 10 15
05
1015
20
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Catching
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CatchingWe would need…
Runner’s position at pitch release
Runner’s position when ball crosses plate
Time when catcher obtains possession of the ball
Time when catcher releases the ball
Position where 2B/SS receives the ball
Time when 2B/SS obtains possession of the ball
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CatchingWe would need…
Runner’s position at pitch release
Runner’s position when ball crosses plate
Time when catcher obtains possession of the ball
Time when catcher releases the ball
Position where 2B/SS receives the ball
Time when 2B/SS obtains possession of the ball
Pitcher holding runners
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CatchingWe would need…
Runner’s position at pitch release
Runner’s position when ball crosses plate
Time when catcher obtains possession of the ball
Time when catcher releases the ball
Position where 2B/SS receives the ball
Time when 2B/SS obtains possession of the ball
Catcher’s transfer time
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CatchingWe would need…
Runner’s position at pitch release
Runner’s position when ball crosses plate
Time when catcher obtains possession of the ball
Time when catcher releases the ball
Position where 2B/SS receives the ball
Time when 2B/SS obtains possession of the ball
Catcher’s throw- speed- accuracy
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Thank you