petroleum risk management in the 21st century not just...
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PetroMall
Petroleum Risk Management in the 21st Century – not just HSE
Greg Coleman, Graham Scotton ,
Brian Smart
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Risks • Risks to be managed occur during
exploration, appraisal, development, operation, decommissioning, abandonment
• Risks include lack of return on exploration costs, drilling and development cost overshoot, less than optimum reservoir management reducing recovery factor, well integrity, security, and of course HSE
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PetroMall PetroMall approach to Risk Management
• Knowledge = “what do I do?”(box ticking) is not enough
• Understanding = “I know what to do and why” is really required
• The latter underpins the evolution of risk management in a TQM-like manner which should engage everyone
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What does a Company know and understand?
What can a Company do?
Nothing
Everything it should
Everything it needs
Typical Service Company Services
Typical Training Company Services
Position of Operating Company
Positioning of a company’s human capital related to Risk Management
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PetroMall Now consider New Frontiers – doubly so
• Clair - new location + fractured basement :– understanding may be limited - the comfort from knowing that we’ve done this before, or let’s see what others have done, is not necessarily there
• Hence the need to consult widely and in these times efficiently. What understanding is already “in the bank” in Universities, e.g. Heriot-Watt?
Clair
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PetroMall Bank of output from industry and Research Council funded research
• Relevant research done at HWU for over 20 years • Ahead of its time • Funded by typically 1% of the industry • Understanding developed probably applied by 50% of that
1% - hence we end up with 0.5% usage • Some understanding in the public domain – but where?
What is the relevance? • But all understanding created by the University resides
with the University – this is a large resource underpinned by the experts and research groups that developed it
• Take Petroleum Rock Mechanics as an example
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PetroMall HWU’s Petroleum Engineering Rock Mechanics
• Consider the stress sensitivity of the reservoir – petroleum rock mechanics. A development story going back almost 40 years.
• Hence bank of HWU rock mechanics projects –
outputs of understanding cost about 5million GBP
• Specific risk addressed here – possible lower
recovery factor due to water injection activating a preferred fracture set
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PetroMall The Geological Setting of Clair
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The Conceptual Model
• The reservoir consists of blocks or layers of intact rock bounded by discontinuities
• The reservoir is naturally stressed in an anisotropic manner
• We alter these stresses by changing the pore pressure and temperature
• The ground reacts
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Thinly-bedded interval in the Annot Sandstone.This interval is underlain and overlain by more ‘massive’ sandstones.
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PetroMall The Three Graces by Canova 1817 (for the Duke of Bedford)
Image courtesy of Uk-camelot
Beauty, charm and joy
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PetroMall The Great Sphinx, Giza by? ?BC
Image courtesy of Usuario Barcex
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PetroMall HWYH-394
Key:
Drilling-induced tension cracks
All from STAR
Bed boundary
Fracture
Unclassified, possible stylolite
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PetroMall Build the
conceptual model:-
The Reservoir
“Intact” Rock - Matrix
Discontinuities
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PetroMall sv
Anisotropic
Stress State
sh
sH
sh sv> sH >
Build the
conceptual model:-
The Stress State
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s
v sh sH
sh
Reservoir
Regional
Stresses
sh sh sH
The Assembled Conceptual
Model
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PetroMall The large scale effects predicted
Wells lost by
shear
Wells lost due to
axial compression
Fault activation
influencing seals and
compartmentalisation
Fracture activation
influencing sweep
efficiency
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PetroMall Workflow – Populating the Conceptual Model with Data
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Fluid Flow Simulator
Stress-Analysis
Simulator
Change in Pore
Pressure,
Temperature,
Saturations
Change in
Effective Stresses
Rock Movements,
Change in Stress and
Strain
Change in
Permeability
More realistic simulation
results; real and
geological time
Reservoir and o/b
stresses, strains and
displacements; real and
geological time
Coupled
Modelling
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PetroMall Modeling of Large Scale Effects
Vertical Section of Reservoir being depleted
Rock movement vectors (red > green > blue)
Bounding Faults
(VISAGE Output)
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sh
sH
sh
sH
Injector
Producer
Anisotropic stress state controls fracture opening and flood front development on injection
Plan view
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Movie – fracture opening
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PetroMall Movie – Flood front development
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PetroMall
A couple of “gems” in the Bank
The True Triaxial Cell
Angle of Internal Friction versus Porosity
y = -1.3045x + 49.54
R2 = 0.7722
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Porosity (%)
Ang
le o
f In
tern
al F
rict
ion
Series1
UTMN 1307
HRDH 704
HWYH 325
HWYH 394
HWYH 399
Rock Mechanical/Petrophysical Property Correlation (at stress)
Direct shear testing with confining stress
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PetroMall So the understanding is there –
how do we get at it?
• By creating an intelligent social business network for the industry, linking the industry, academic researchers and consultants.
• By offering a community of experts, focused collaboration and timely, relevant responses
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PetroMall PetroMall values route map
Challenge how world petroleum is understood by asking the best questions
Share knowledge, insights, ideas to stimulate relevant responses to a range of critical topics, such as risk management
Ground what’s been learned so members & clients understand the relevance of the scientific data
Practice with newfound grounded expertise, back in industry
Change so everyone gains… challenge from the outside, share and ground within PetroMall, then practice back in industry
in
expert,
stimulating,
focused
ways
Industry
PetroMall
Academia
PetroMall
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Conclusions
• There is a significant bank of understanding available, within universities and consultants resources
• Access to this could help with the development of new frontiers
• Intelligent social business can accelerate and ensure the quality of access
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Acknowledgements
• Colleagues in PetroMall
• Former colleagues in Heriot-Watt University
• VIPS Ltd