Petri VasaraDr.Tech., Principal, General BusybodyPöyry Management Consulting Oy

Nevermind Copenhagen!19.3.2010

Mar

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9, 2

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"You're either with us or against us - there is no neutrality"

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CARBON TIC-TAC-TOE: NO NEUTRALITY HERE.We Can’t Lose. In All Meanings Of the Phrase.

If you know what you are doing, you can't lose at Tic-Tac-Toe.

If your opponent knows what they are doing, you can't win at Tic-Tac-Toe.

The game is a zero sum game. If both players are playing with an optimal strategy, every game will end in a tie.

There are four player types in Tic-Tac-Toe.

*The Novice player makes random moves

*The Intermediate player will block their opponent from winning

*The Experienced player knows that playing in certain first squares will lose the game

*The Expert player will never lose

Let’s play it

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CARBON TIC-TAC-TOE: NO NEUTRALITY HERE.We Can’t Lose. In All Meanings Of the Phrase.

If you know what you are doing, you can't lose at Tic-Tac-Toe.

>We can’t afford to lose!If your opponent knows what they are doing, you can't win at Tic-Tac-Toe.

>We are playing a combination of ourselves and planetary dynamics. Tough luck! The game is a zero sum game. If both players are playing with an optimal strategy, every game will end in a tie.

>A draw is good enough

There are four player types in Tic-Tac-Toe.

*The Novice player makes random moves

>Seems familiar from world news*The Intermediate player will block their opponent from winning

>Dragging every one down with them*The Experienced player knows that playing in certain first squares will lose the game

>Or not playing, i.e. delaying action*The Expert player will never lose

>You in this hall are supposed to be that.

Let’s play it, History vs. Technology

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Climate Change on (the) Amazon

Climate change perception in one picture

CENTURIES-OLD Amazonian "garden cities" could serve as a model for sustainable urban development. The discovery of 600 years old huge swathes of the western Amazon cleared for a well-planned network of towns and villages also has implications for modern conservation. The towns were in harmony with agricultural areas, unlike modern urban sprawl.

History’s opening gambit

E-com

H

Ancient or new,

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Spamfilters: The Environmental Heroes

E-com -> Spam

Low-carbon tech vs. high-carbon

tech

‘Carbon Footprint of e-mail Spam Report’ has revealed that around 62 trillion Spam e-mails are sent across the Internet every year, equating to the production of some 33 billion kilowatt hours of wasted energy – which the report claims is enough to provide electricity for more than 2.4 million U.S. homes and equals the emissions created by 3.1 million cars.

Approximately 80 percent of that amount is created by e-mail users searching through, filtering, and deleting Spam from their accounts, with simple widespread purchase and usage of diligent Spam filters would likely cut Spam rates by some 75 percent.

3.1 mill62 trill. =

T

Ancient or new, nuisance

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Distinguishing Virtual and Real

In April 1845, a team of chess players in London took on a team in Gosport, near Portsmouth. They communicated using an electric telegraph. By December 1848, telegraph offices at Paddington and Slough railway stations were advertising lines for hire for "chess and draughts played by telegraph" with any major city in Britain.

Second Life is a very popular multi-user gameworld, where people, represented by so-called ”avatars”, build, buy, socialise – do pretty much anything.

Nicholas Carr has calculated that the average second life avatar (i.e. the character a player uses) consumes 1752 kWh per year – consisting of power used by servers and the player’s computer.

This is almost as much as the average annual energy use of a person in Brazil (1884 kWh) and not much less than the global average of 2436 kWh.

She uses as much energy as the

average Brazilian: and she doesn’t

even exist!

E-com -> Spam -> Online gaming

”Online since 1845”: Virtual carbon

becomes real carbon

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Ancient or new, nuisance or entertainment,

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Energetic Walk In the Park

Kyle Toole is an industrial designer and one of manyt who have figured out a way to use our own energy to act as a power source for recharging batteries. The device is called Etive and it uses the naturally occurring, vibrating, shock forces that are concentrated at the knee, after the heel has struck the ground, during walking. Toole’s estimate is that a person could expend an estimated 407 watts of power during hiking. With further development, the Etive should be capable of recharging a 2000mAh lithium-Ion battery in about five hours.

E-com -> Spam -> Online gaming -> Walking instead

Real carbon generates real

energy

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Ancient or new, nuisance or entertainment, walking

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Farmers Are Cool

While cities create a warm bubble known as the urban heat island, most farms have an opposite chilling effect. This "cool farms factor" has lessened the effects of global warming across the entire continental US, and could continue to do so, suggests new research.

Fields can lower temperatures in two ways: by using solar energy to evaporate water – in a similar way to a person cooling down by sweating – and by reflecting more solar energy out into space than darker vegetation such as forests – a phenomenon known as the albedo effect.

E-com -> Spam -> Online gaming -> Walking instead -> Walking around cool farm

Really old and really cool

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Ancient or new, nuisance or entertainment, walking or working,

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Urban Vertical Farms Are Cool, Too

Vertical farm concept for Manhattan: Eric Vergne's Dystopian Farm concept is a design study examining how an advanced aeroponic farming system could operate in a vertical, urban environment.

Its shape, inspired by the cell structure of ferns, might be a bit out there, but the structure is designed to provide a large, dense and efficient space in which aeroponic industry can produce a large volume of food all year round.

The height of urban cool

E-com -> Spam -> Online gaming -> Walking instead -> Walking around cool farm -> Urban farm ->

T

Ancient or new, nuisance or entertainment, walking or working, on land

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Climate-Proofing Country: Water Technology

Centuries of adaptation to

climate (change)

E-com -> Spam -> Online gaming -> Walking instead -> Walking around cool farm -> Urban farm ->Water-proofing country ->

H

Ancient or new, nuisance or entertainment, walking or working, on land or water,

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River Glows, Water Flows

Developed by David Benjamin and Soo-in Yang, River Glow is a system of floating pods that monitors water quality and displays a variable light signal that is visible from the water or onshore. When deployed in public waterways, the system creates an ethereal cloud of light hovering above the water’s surface that changes colors according to the condition of the water. The system is energy self-sufficient, low-cost, modular, and easy to deploy.

E-com -> Spam -> Online gaming -> Walking instead -> Walking around cool farm -> Urban farm ->Water-proofing country -> Glowing health on the water

Water and energy with a healthy glow

T

Ancient or new, nuisance or entertainment, walking or working, on land or water, the low carbon entity monitors

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Been There, Done That

Angkor Wat, the spectacular 12th century Khmer Temple in Cambodia, was the center of an enormous, low-density urban complex whose size (1000 square km) rivaled large modern day cities.

It looks like the earlier theory that the large reservoirs were primarily for irrigation is correct. The radar imagery show the remnants of rice fields covering the entire region from the lake to the mountain foothills. A river was diverted to fill the reservoirs, and to irrigate the landscape. It is possible that the deforestation of the area for conversion to agriculture, combined with the re-routed natural water channels, may have led to a large-scale ecological disaster.

E-com -> Spam -> Online gaming -> Walking instead -> Walking around cool farm -> Urban farm ->Water-proofing country -> Glowing health on the water -> Angkor Wat(er) management

Look ma, a draw with no

computers!

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Ancient or new, nuisance or entertainment, walking or working, on land or water, the low carbon entity monitors and manages its activities.

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Carbon vs. Water footprintAhh.. conflicts. Some are good on water, others good on carbon.

1 glass of beer (250 ml)

1 glass of milk (200 ml)

1 cup of coffee (125 ml)1 glass of wine (125 ml)

1 bag of potato crisps1 glass of orange juice (200 ml)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Carbon Footprint (g CO2e)

0

50

100

150

200

250W

ate

r fo

otp

rin

t (V

irtu

al

wa

ter,

lit

res

)

Low carbon AND low water

footprint

Low carbon AND low water

footprint

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Can’t Be Neutral: Coffee vs. Wine

Coffee (higher water, lower carbon footprint) vs. wine (lower water, higher carbon footprint)

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Can’t Be Neutral In Resources: A Vocabulary for Our Times

Finlandization: pejorative and insulting, meaning the process of turning into a country which, although maintaining national sovereignty, in foreign politics resolves not to challenge a more powerful neighbour.

Carbon neutralization: thinking you can pay your way out of carbon-intensive behaviour. Oh no you can’t. A dirty coal power plant is not carbon neutral, however much you donate to tree planting.

High C: either nine high C's in a row in the aria "Ah, Mes Amis," from Donizetti's La Fille du Regiment - or a high carbon lifestyle.

Low C: the lowest note Mozart wrote is low D for Osmin in Seraglio (“Ha, how I’ll triumph”) – or a low carbon lifestyle. For us to triumph (Ha!), we will do better than Mozart. Or lower. Whichever is best.