petraeus report

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Multi-National Force-Iraq

Charts to accompany the testimony of

GEN David H. Petraeus

10-11 September 2007

TURKEY



Tal AfarTal Afar

KarbalaKarbala

An NajafAn Najaf

An NasiriyahAn Nasiriyah

Al KutAl Kut

BaqubahBaqubah

Major Threats to Iraq

BasrahBasrah

I n t r a - S h i ’ a V i o

l e n c e

L

e t h a l A i d , T r a i n i n g , F

u n d i n g

F o r e i g

n F i

g h t e r

F l o w

Shi’a Infighting OverPower/Resources

RamadiRamadi

A n t i - A Q I T r i b a l S u c c e s s

Tikrit

SamarraSamarra

MosulMosul

Kirkuk

0 100 mi

AQI/Insurgent &Shi’a Militias

BaghdadBaghdad

A Q I / S u

n n i

I n s

u r g e n t s

AQI

FallujahFallujah

SAUDI ARABIA

SYRIA

TURKEY

IRAN

PKK

AQI/Insurgent &Shi’a Militias

1

O ll W kl I A k T dO ll W kl I A k T d



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1 - O c t -

0 4

2 2 - O c t -

0 4

1 2 - N o v -

0 4

0 3 - D e c - 0 4

2 4 - D e c - 0 4

1 4 - J a n - 0 5

0 4 - F e b - 0 5

2 5 - F e b - 0 5

1 8 - M a r - 0

5

0 8 - A p r - 0 5

2 9 - A p r - 0 5

2 0 - M a y - 0 5

1 0 - J u n - 0 5

0 1 - J u l - 0 5

2 2 - J u l - 0 5

1 2 - A u g - 0 5

0 2 - S e p - 0 5

2 3 - S e p - 0 5

1 4 - O c t -

0 5

0 4 - N o v -

0 5

2 5 - N o v -

0 5

1 6 - D e c - 0 5

0 6 - J a n - 0 6

2 7 - J a n - 0 6

1 7 - F e b - 0 6

1 0 - M a r - 0

6

3 1 - M a r - 0

6

2 1 - A p r - 0 6

1 2 - M a y - 0 6

0 2 - J u n - 0 6

2 3 - J u n - 0 6

1 4 - J u l - 0 6

0 4 - A u g - 0 6

2 5 - A u g - 0 6

1 5 - S e p - 0 6

0 6 - O c t -

0 6

2 7 - O c t -

0 6

1 7 - N o v -

0 6

0 8 - D e c - 0 6

2 9 - D e c - 0 6

1 9 - J a n - 0 7

0 9 - F e b - 0 7

0 2 - M a r - 0

7

2 3 - M a r - 0

7

1 3 - A p r - 0 7

0 4 - M a y - 0 7

2 5 - M a y - 0 7

1 5 - J u n - 0 7

0 6 - J u l - 0 7

2 7 - J u l - 0 7

1 7 - A u g - 0 7

0 7 - S e p - 0 7

Attacks Against Iraqi Infrastructure & Government Facilities

Bombs (IEDs), both Found and Exploded

Sniper, Ambush, Grenade, and Other Small Arms Attacks

Mortar and Rocket Attacks

Overall Weekly Iraq Attack Trends Overall Weekly Iraq Attack Trends 1 October 2004 1 October 2004 – – 7 September 2007 7 September 2007

Baghdad

Security Plan15 Feb 07

Samarra

mosquebombing22 Feb 06

Parliamentary

elections,15 Dec 05

Iraqi referendum15 Oct 05

Iraqi elections30 Jan 05

Surge ofoffensives

16 Jun 07

2



Iraq Civilian Deaths Iraq Civilian Deaths

As of 31 Aug 07

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

J a n -

0 6

F e b -

0 6

M a r -

0 6

A p r -

0 6

M a y -

0 6

J u n - 0 6

J u l - 0 6

A u g -

0 6

S e p -

0 6

O c t -

0 6

N o v - 0 6

D e c -

0 6

J a n -

0 7

F e b -

0 7

M a r -

0 7

A p r -

0 7

M a y -

0 7

J u n - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

A u g -

0 7

Iraq

Baghdad

Source: Coalition and Host National Reporting 3



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

M a y - 0 6

J u n - 0 6

J u l - 0 6

A u g - 0 6

S e p - 0 6

O c t - 0 6

N o v - 0 6

D e c - 0 6

J a n - 0 7

F e b - 0 7

M a r - 0 7

A p r - 0 7

M a y - 0 7

J u n - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

A u g - 0 7

Iraq

10 Baghdad SecurityDistricts

Ethno Ethno - - Sectarian Violence Sectarian Violence

Density

Least Most

Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed

Majority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed

Majority Shia Majority Sunni MixedMajority Shia Majority Sunni Mixed

DEC 06 FEB 07

As of 31 Aug 07

MAY 07

Density plots are of incidents where deathsDensity plots are of incidents where deathsoccurred from any means that were clearlyoccurred from any means that were clearly

ethnoethno--sectarian in motivation, to include carsectarian in motivation, to include car

bombsbombs

Ethno-Sectarian DeathsAUG 07

4



Caches Found & Cleared

•-&

•MND•-•B Cache440921111 JAN 07-7 SEP 07

272612222006

26916922004

309114832005

IraqAnbarYear

5



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

J u l - 0 6

A u g - 0 6

S e p - 0 6

O c t - 0 6

N o v - 0 6

D e c - 0 6

J a n - 0 7

F e b - 0 7

M a r - 0 7

A p r - 0 7

M a y - 0 7

J u n - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

A u g - 0 7

Total IED Iraq

Total IED Baghdad

Total IED Anbar

Improvised Explosive Devices ( Improvised Explosive Devices ( IEDs IEDs ) )

Total IEDs = IED explosions + IEDs found + IED hoaxes 6

A bA b A kA k



Anbar Anbar Attacks Attacks

Density

Least Most

AUG 07

OCT 06

As of 31 Aug 07

Density plots are of locationsDensity plots are of locations

where attacks occurredwhere attacks occurred

JAN 07 MAR 07

Anbar

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

J u n - 0 6

J u l - 0 6

A u g - 0 6

S e p - 0 6

O c t - 0 6

N o v - 0 6

D e c - 0 6

J a n - 0 7

F e b - 0 7

M a r - 0 7

A p r - 0 7

M a y - 0 7

J u n - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

A u g - 0 7

Attacks

Trend

7

I q Vi l T dIraq Violence Trends



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 4 - A u g - 0 6

2 5 - A u g - 0 6

1 5 - S e p - 0 6

0 6 - O c t - 0 6

2 7 - O c t - 0 6

1 7 - N o v - 0 6

0 8 - D e c - 0 6

2 9 - D e c - 0 6

1 9 - J a n - 0 7

0 9 - F e b - 0 7

0 2 - M a r - 0 7

2 3 - M a r - 0 7

1 3 - A p r - 0 7

0 4 - M a y - 0 7

2 5 - M a y - 0 7

1 5 - J u n - 0 7

0 6 - J u l - 0 7

2 7 - J u l - 0 7

1 7 - A u g - 0 7

-

-0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

4 - A u g - 0 6

2 5 - A u g - 0 6

1 5 - S e p - 0 6

6 - O c t - 0 6

2 7 - O c t - 0 6

1 7 - N o v - 0 6

8 - D e c - 0 6

2 9 - D e c - 0 6

1 9 - J a n - 0 7

9 - F e b - 0 7

2 - M a r - 0 7

2 3 - M a r - 0 7

1 3 - A p r - 0 7

4 - M a y - 0 7

2 5 - M a y - 0 7

1 5 - J u n - 0 7

6 - J u l - 0 7

2 7 - J u l - 0 7

1 7 - A u g - 0 7

7 - S e p - 0 7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

4 - A u g - 0 6

2 5 - A u g - 0 6

1 5 - S e p - 0 6

6 - O c t - 0 6

2 7 - O c t - 0 6

1 7 - N o v - 0 6

8 - D e c - 0 6

2 9 - D e c - 0 6

1 9 - J a n - 0 7

9 - F e b - 0 7

2 - M a r - 0 7

2 3 - M a r - 0 7

1 3 - A p r - 0 7

4 - M a y - 0 7

2 5 - M a y - 0 7

1 5 - J u n - 0 7

6 - J u l - 0 7

2 7 - J u l - 0 7

1 7 - A u g - 0 7

-

-

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 4 - A u g - 0 6

2 5 - A u g - 0 6

1 5 - S e p - 0 6

0 6 - O c t - 0 6

2 7 - O c t - 0 6

1 7 - N o v - 0 6

0 8 - D e c - 0 6

2 9 - D e c - 0 6

1 9 - J a n - 0 7

0 9 - F e b - 0 7

0 2 - M a r - 0 7

2 3 - M a r - 0 7

1 3 - A p r - 0 7

0

4 - M a y - 0 7

2

5 - M a y - 0 7

1 5 - J u n - 0 7

0 6 - J u l - 0 7

2 7 - J u l - 0 7

1 7 - A u g - 0 7

0 7 - S e p - 0 7

Iraq Violence Trends Iraq Violence Trends

BaghdadSalah ad Din Province

Ninewah ProvinceAnbar Province

Level of Violence = Attacks + Murders Events As of 7 Sep 07 8



As of 31 AUG 07; High Profile = Car bombs + suicide car bombs + suicide vests

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

M a y - 0 6

J u n -

0 6

J u l -

0 6

A u g - 0 6

S e p -

0 6

O c t -

0 6

N o v - 0 6

D e c - 0 6

J a n -

0 7

F e b - 0 7

M a r -

0 7

A p r - 0 7

M a y - 0 7

J u n -

0 7

J u l -

0 7

A u g - 0 7

Total High Profile Attacks

Car Bomb

Suicide Car Bomb

Suicide Vest

`

High Profile Attacks High Profile Attacks

9

JAN 07JAN 07

JAN 07JAN 07 State of Al Qaeda IraqState of Al Qaeda Iraq



AQI East SideMilitary Emir in Mosul

Emir of Hay alJama’ah

FinancialEmir in Jazirah

AQIEmir of Amiriyah

Facilitator

Facilitator

AQIWeapons Facilitator

AQIFacilitator

Military Advisor

AQI Cell Leader

Media Network

Media Network

VBIED Cell

Financier

North Karkh

Second in CommandAQI in Karmah

AQI Emir for Salah ad Din

AQI Emir for Mosul

Senior Iraqi AQI Leader

Sniper Cell Leader

AQI Mosul

City EmirAQI Samarra

KidnappingCell Leader

Special Group

AQI External Facilitator

Admin Emir

Military Emir

Security Emirfor Executions

Logistics Emir

Emir of Arab Jabour

JAN 07 JAN 07 JAN 07 JAN 07 State of Al Qaeda Iraq State of Al Qaeda Iraq

BAGHDADBAGHDAD

SAMARRASAMARRA

KIRKUKKIRKUK

MUQDADIYAHMUQDADIYAH

BA’QUBAHBA’QUBAH

RAMADIRAMADIHITHIT

AL QA’IMAL QA’IM

TIKRITTIKRIT

AS SULAYMANIYAHAS SULAYMANIYAH

MOSULMOSULAUG 07 AUG 07

July to September2007

Killed

Captured

Strategic Detention/EKIA15 June to 5 September 07

Emirs of:

Yusafiyah

N. Iraq

Samarra

Mosul

DiyalaNorth Karkh

Media Cells:

Ramadi

Ghazaliyah

Baghdad

Baqubah

Samarra

Arab JabourHay alAndullahSinjar

Emir of Sinjar

10

Tarmiyah

Tribal Engagement



Tal AfarTal Afar

KarbalaKarbala

An NajafAn Najaf

An NasiriyahAn Nasiriyah

Al KutAl Kut

BaqubahBaqubah

BasraBasra

SamarraSamarra

MosulMosul

BaghdadBaghdad

Tikrit

FallujaFallujaRamadiRamadi

Sunni

Mixed

Shi’a

Security Volunteers

Tribal Engagement

Vetted

In hiring process forIraqi Security Forces

Local Security Forces

29.8K

28.4K

11

Iraqi Security Forces Capabilities



Iraqi Security Forces Capabilities

Iraqi Army Battalions, National Police Battalions, and Special Operating Force Battalions

0

10

2030

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110120

130

140

150

160

170

180

N o v

- 0 5

D e c

- 0 5

J a n

- 0 6

F e b

- 0 6

M a r - 0 6

A p r - 0 6

M a y - 0 6

J u n

- 0 6

J u l - 0 6

A u g

- 0 6

S e p - 0 6

O c t - 0 6

N o v

- 0 6

D e c

- 0 6

J a n

- 0 7

F e b

- 0 7

M a r - 0 7

A p r - 0 7

M a y - 0 7

J u n

- 0 7

J u l - 0 7

A u g

- 0 7

S e p - 0 7

Level IV - Unit Forming

Level III - Fighting Side by Side

Level II - Iraqi Lead with Coalition Support

Level I - Fully Independent

12

Recommended Force Reductions/Mission Shift



15

12

10

7

5

20

Leading Leading to Partnering to Overwatch (Tactical to Operational to Strategi to Partnering to Overwatch (Tactical to Operational to Strategi c) c)

20-15 Dec 07

Time

15-12

DecisionPoint

NLTMar 08

12-10?

10-7

?

7-5

?

Primary Brigade MissionStrategic Overwatch

Operational Overwatch

Tactical Overwatch

Partnering

Leading

Recommended Force Reductions/Mission Shift

Sep 07

Jul 08

DateDeterminedNLT Mar 08

13

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