peter h. diamandis, md november 2013 live tweeting? i'm
TRANSCRIPT
Innovation & Breakthroughs
on the Road to Abundance Peter H. Diamandis, MD
November 2013
Live Tweeting? I’m
@PeterDiamandis
Live Tweeting? I’m @PeterDiamandis
Exponential Technology Crowdsourcing Genius
Human development over 150,000+ years…
LOCAL + LINEAR
EXPONENTIAL + GLOBAL
Human development over 150,000+ years…
Disruptive Stress
/Opportunity
EXPONENTIAL LINEAR
1996
MarketCap: $28B
Employees: 140,000
2012
Bankrupt
Employees: 17,000
April 2012
MarketCap: $1B
Employees: 13
The New “Kodak Moment”
In 10 years, it’s predicted that
40% of the Future 500 Companies
will no longer exist.
* Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, page 121.
EXPONENTIAL LINEAR
EXPONENTIAL LINEAR
“The average lifespan of an
S&P 500 company has decreased from:
67 years (1920’s) 15 years (today)”
- Richard Foster, Yale University
Singularity University – 10^9+ NASA – AUTODESK – GOOGLE – CISCO– NOKIA – GENENTECH – KAUFFMAN
www.SingularityU.org
Mountain View, California
Crowd/Community Tools
1. Incentive Competitions
2. (Big) Data Mining
3. Gamification
4. DIY Communities
5. On Demand Workforce
6. Crowd Creativity
7. Crowd Funding
Exponential Technology
1. Computation/Networks
2. Artificial Intelligence
3. Robotics
4. 3D Printing
5. Synthetic Biology
6. Digital Medicine
EXPONENTIAL LINEAR
Innovation Partnership Program
What does EXPONENTIAL growth feel like?
Take 30 paces… LINEAR
01 02
03 04
05 06
07 08
09 10
11 12
13
30 meters
01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256
… 1,073,741,824 meters
26X around the Earth!
Take 30 steps…
EXPONENTIAL
“6D’s” – Exponential Framework
Digitized (Information Tech)
Deceptive
Dematerialize
Demonetize
Democratize
Disruptive
Deceptive & Disruptive
0 0.01
1 0.02
2 0.04
3 0.08
4 0.16
5 0.32
6 0.64
7 1.28
8 2.56
9 5.12
10 10.2
11 20.5
12 40.9
13 81.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 0.01
1 0.02
2 0.04
3 0.08
4 0.16
5 0.32
6 0.64
7 1.28
8 2.56
9 5.12
10 10.2
11 20.5
12 40.9
13 81.9
Knee of Curve
Linear Trend Exponential Trend
Linear Vs. Exponential Growth
(Disruptive)
(Deceptive)
Dematerialization
… and come for
free on your
smart phone!
20 Years later…
All of these fit in
your pocket…
Demonetization
Classifieds
Record Stores
Local Stores
Research/Libraries
Book Stores
Long Distance
Democratization
African Mobile Growth: >1B by 2016
Calc
ula
tio
ns/S
ec p
er
$1000 c
om
pu
ter
Moore’s Law – 5th Paradigm of Exponential Growth
The exponential growth of
computing on a Logarithmic Plot Calc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time
Calc
ula
tions p
er
Se
co
nd
pe
r $
10
00
Year
2
6
2023
2050
2010
Recent News…
Technologies making the news: AI, Cloud Computing, Robotics, 3D Printing, Synthetic Biology
“WATSON vanquishes human opponents”
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence
Infinite Computing •2,880 POWER7 processor cores;
•16 Terabytes of RAM
•200 million pages of content (Wikipedia)
•Process 1 million books per second
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Willow Garage – Scott Hassan Robotics
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Google’s Autonomous Car Robotics
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Google’s Autonomous Car Robotics
6 Prius
3 RX450h
>300,000 miles
Legal in:
- Nevada
- California
- Florida
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Google’s Autonomous Car Robotics
LIDAR
64 lasers
10 RPM
1.3 mil datapoints or
750 Mbytes/second
Light Detection And Ranging)
LIDAR: Light Detection
& Ranging
Know Anything – Anytime
Light Detection And Ranging)
LEO Constellations
~ .5m global resolution
5 Known Constellations
Including Skybox
Quad Copter
~ 1 cm global resolution
Plummeting costs
Solar Powered
Google Glass
~ 1 mm global resolution
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Telepresence Robots – today’s “Transporter” Robotics
3D Printer = The Star Trek Replicator
3D Printing
Disrupting a $10 Trillion Manufacturing Industry
3D Printing
Good Enough To Eat HOSPITALITY | EVENTS | STORE | HOME
SOURCE: Fab@Home SOURCE:3DSYSTEMS
PRODUCTS TO BUY ACCESSORIES | SHOES | TOYS | DOLLS
SOURCE: GeoBeats Dolls: MakieLabs
Safe Enough To Implant
ORGANS | BONES | RESTORATIONS
SOURCE: ExplainingTheFuture.com SOURCE: Wake Forest
May 20, 2010
1st synthetic life
1.1 million Basepairs
Market:
FUEL & FOOD & VACCINES
Synthetic Biology
Critical Insight…
The only constant is change.
And, the rate of change is increasing.
1st Conclusion: You either disrupt your own company, or
someone else will. You must be constantly evolving your
business. Standing still = death.
2nd Conclusion: If you’re dependent on innovation solely from
inside your company, you will lose.
Question: How will you do this?
Exponential Technology Crowdsourcing Genius
Crowdsourcing Genius
• $10 Million purse
• Privately funded teams
• 3 person crew
• 100 km altitude
• Two flights within 2 weeks
ARCA Space Transport
Pablo DeLeon StarChaser Scaled Composites
DaVinci Project Canadian Arrow Rocketplane
Armadillo
Aerospace
WINNING THE ANSARI X PRIZE
• 26 Teams
• From 7 Nations
• Spending > $100 million
October 4th, 2004 Mojave Desert
Image from Video
OPENING A NEW ERA…
> 10 Billion Media Impressions Worth in Excess of $120 Million
VIDEO: Ansari X PRIZE (historical)
History Was Made
HALLMARKS OF AN X PRIZE COMPETITION
• HIGHLY LEVERAGED: Typically 10 – 40x
• EFFICIENT: only pays the winner
• Sparks NEW INDUSTRY development
• Non-traditional solutions
$2.5M – Start-up
St. Louis
$10M - Purse
Ansari Family
$1B+
Industry start
$100M
Teams’ spend
Board of Trustees & Benefactors
LARRY PAGE, CEO, Google
ELON MUSK CEO, Tesla & SpaceX
RAY KURZWEIL Inventor & Futurist
Dr. ANOUSHEH ANSARI Astronaut & CEO
DR. CRAIG VENTER, Genetic Pioneer
RATAN TATA Chairman of Tata Group
JIM GIANOPULOS Chairman/CEO, FOX
JAMES CAMERON Filmmaker and explorer
Jim Gianopulos
Jim Cameron
WENDY SCHMIDT Schmidt Family Fndtn
Wendy Schmidt
DEAN KAMEN, CEO, DEKA Research
Prize Groups
Energy &
Environment
Life Sciences Exploration Learning &
Global Dev.
$10M HEALTHCARE IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND… FUNDED BY THE QUALCOMM FOUNDATION
Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE Team Distribution
300+ TOTAL TEAMS
37 NATIONS
16 from Canada
115 from USA
1 from Brazil
1 from Argentina
2 from Sweden 25 from UK
3 from Ireland
5 from Germany
1 from Switzerland
1 from Portugal
2 from Denmark 2 from Russia
1 from Czech Rep.
1 from Austria
2 from Bulgaria
2 from Italy
1 from Turkey
2 from Georgia
20 from India
1 from Yemen
1 from Saudi Arabia
1 from Kuwait
2 from China
4 from Singapore
2 from Australia
Does it have to be a $10M purse?
$1.4 million
Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min
$1.4 million
• 350 pre-registered teams
• 10 Finalists – head to head
7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement
Top Team = 6x Improvement
$1.4 million
• 350 pre-registered teams
• 10 Finalists – head to head
• Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min
7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement
Top Team = 6x Improvement
Where is X PRIZE
going next ?
Global Software Competition -- Reading & Coding in 2 Years
Health & Life Science X PRIZEs
Alzheimer's
Disease
Organo-
Genesis
Brain-Computer
Interface
* Concept only - Purse need funding
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
FORCE: Rising Billion
2000 2010 2020
GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS)
6%
23%
66%
Global Population
Internet Users
3 BILLION NEW MINDS
What will 3 Billion New Minds…
create
consume
discover
desire invent
…Tens of trillions of annual PP
…Greatest period of Innovation (ever)
Get a copy of my Briefing Slides
Text: DELOITTE, FIRST NAME , & EMAIL to:
+46-737-494-551
Exponential Tech Crowdsourcing Genius
ABUNDANCE
We are heading towards a world of Abundance…
Really?
ABUNDANCE:
The Future Is Better Than You Think #1 on Amazon; #2 on New York Times
AMYGDALA ALL VISUAL INFORMATION
ALL AUDIO INFORMATION
NAPOLEAN III THE KING OF SIAM AG SILVER
Au GOLD
AL ALUMINUM
ABUNDANCE: ENERGY
Solar – Exponential Change
Source: GTM Research
SOLAR PANELS AVG. PRICE PER WATT
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
1980 1990 2000 2010
1975-2012
97.2%
2012: 84¢
ANNUAL PV PRODUCTION MWATTS
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
1995 2000 2010 2005
Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported that the price of solar panels fell by almost 50 percent in 2011. They are now just one-quarter of what they were in 2008.
ABUNDANCE: WATER
Dean Kamen’s Slingshot…
‣$2,500 each
‣1000 liters/day
‣$0.02 per liter
‣5 Year Lifetime
‣100 watts of power
ABUNDANCE: COMMUNICATIONS
ABUNDANCE: HEALTH & EDUCATION
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
FORCE: Rising Billion
2000 2010 2020
GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS)
6%
23%
66%
Global Population
Internet Users
3 BILLION NEW MINDS
What will 3 Billion New Minds…
create
consume
discover
desire invent
…Tens of trillions of annual PP
…Greatest period of Innovation (ever)
Get a copy of my Briefing Slides
Text: DELOITTE, FIRST NAME , & EMAIL to:
+46-737-494-551
THANK YOU
Peter H. Diamandis, MD
Copy of Slides Text your name & email: (310) 299-8772
Follow me: @PeterDiamandis
www.Diamandis.com (Sign up for BOLD Blog)
www.xprize.org
www.SingularityU.org