Perspectives on growth opportunities Emerging European wind power markets Iván Pineda Research Officer The European Wind Energy Association

The Switch Event Vaasa, Finland 13, March, 2013

What is the European Wind Energy Association?

EWEA is the voice of the wind industry in Europe    Activities include: •  Researching the latest developments in the wind sector •  Coordinating EC-funded projects •  Disseminating high quality, up-to-date information •  Raising awareness of the benefits of wind power •  Organising Europe’s premier wind energy events

More than 600 members from almost 60 countries

•  Manufacturers with a leading share of the global wind power market

•  Component suppliers •  Research institutes •  National wind and renewable associations •  Developers •  Electricity providers •  Finance and insurance companies •  Consultants •  Contractors

This combined strength makes EWEA the world’s largest and powerful wind energy network www.ewea.org/membership

Members include the following leading players:

New installed power capacity and decommissioned power capacity in MW in 2012

16,750

11,566 10,535

3,065

1,338 424 50 22 5

833 6.600 6 0

-207

-5,495 -5,441

-43 -158

0

-1,205

0 0

-3,204

0

6000

1000

4000

9000

14000

19000

New

Decommissioned

PV Wind Gas Coal Bio mass

Hydro Waste Nuclear Geothermal

CSP Fuel oil Wave and Tidal

Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2012 (cumulative, MW)

IRELAND 1,738 UNITED

KINGDOM 8,445

NETHERLANDS 2,391

GERMANY 31,308

BELGIUM 1,375

FRANCE 7,564

SPAIN 22,796

LUXEMBOURG 44

CZECH REPUBLIC

260

NORWAY 703

SWEDEN 3,745

FINLAND 288

POLAND 2,497

AUSTRIA 1,378 SWITZERLAND

50

ITALY 8,144

SLOVENIA 0 CROATIA

180

HUNGARY 329

SLOVAKIA 3

FYROM 0

ROMANIA 1,905

BULGARIA 684

GREECE 1,749

UKRAINE 276

LITHUANIA 225

LATVIA 68

ESTONIA 269

TURKEY 2,312

FAROE ISLANDS 4

PORTUGAL 4,525

CYPRUS 147

MALTA 0

European Union: 106,040 MW Candidate countries: 2,492 MW EFTA: 753 MW Total Europe: 109,581 MW

DENMARK 4,162

RUSSIA 16

Total installed wind power capacity in the EU 12 and the EU 15

I. The wind energy market Total wind installed capacity in EU-12 end 2005 & end 2011

Share of installed wind energy capacity in EU newer Member States, end 2011

Poland, 1616

Romania, 921

Bulgaria, 607

Hungary, 329

Czech Republic, 217

Lithuania, 179

Estonia, 160 Cyprus, 134

Latvia, 31 Slovakia, 3

Share of annual wind energy installations, first wave emerging markets, other emerging markets and EU-15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Other emerging markets 29 42 35 23 102 162 80 First wave emerging markets 115 159 225 338 628 1095 1111 EU-15 6400 7054 8700 8117 9646 8311 8364

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wind installed capacity according to the NREAPs and 2012-2020 increase

Cumulative installed wind power capacity in non-EU countries

Emerging markets at glance

Wind installations and NREAP targets

Finland Net annual capacity additions, NREAP and real (MW)

2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP 110 100 100 100 90 390 380 360 360 340 Real 51 2 89

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

MW

Wind installations and NREAP targets

Finland 5/7 Onshore: net annual capacity additions, NREAP and real (MW)

2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP 110 100 100 100 90 390 380 360 360 340 Real 51 2 89

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

MW

Wind installations and NREAP targets

Finland 6/7 Offshore: net annual capacity addition, NREAP and real (MW)

2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP Real 2 0 0

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

MW

Wind installations and NREAP targets

Finland Cumulative installations, NREAP and real (MW)

2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP 170 280 380 480 580 670 1,060 1,440 1,800 2,160 2,500 Real 82 195 199 288

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

MW

Wind installations and NREAP targets

Finland Onshore: cumulative installations, NREAP and Real (MW)

2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP 170 280 380 480 580 670 1,060 1,440 1,800 2,160 2,500 Real 82 169 173 262

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

MW

Wind installations and NREAP targets

Finland Offshore: cumulative installations, NREAP and Real (MW)

2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NREAP Real 0 26 26 26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

MW

Wind installations and NREAP targets

Finland Percentage of 2020 NREAP target achieved at end 2012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2020

Difference

Actual Installed

Finnish FiT

•  The single biggest reason for the booming of the Finnish wind power is the feed-in-tariff system that was implemented in spring 2011

•  € 83.5 per MWh for the 12 years after the project has been accepted into the system. This promise is valid until the capacity of 2,500 MW is reached.

•  From Autumn 2013, the turbines can be accepted to the system just before the investment decision is done, right after the project has gone through the permitting process and has got a building permit

Conclusions •  A stable legal framework is critical to

further develop wind industry. •  Stability of the countries’ regulatory

regimes and support mechanisms are key criteria for obtaining financing.

•  National governments need to ensure that support mechanisms are in line with internal market rules

•  Financing opportunities are available through commercial banks or EU funds

•  Availability of grid capacity is an important risk factor.

Conclusions •  More information on emerging markets

can be found in EWEA report:

•  Power market •  Financing

•  Supply Chain •  Regulatory

framework

Thank you More information @

http://www.ewea.org/publications/reports

www.ewea.org EWEA 80 RUE D’ARLON B-1040 BRUSSELS

T: +32 2 213 1811 F: +32 2 213 1890 E: ewea@ewea.org

Wind Finance requirements and Risks identified by Commercial banks

Requirements Risks Developer with track record Legal changes Fully developed project Regulatory risks Fulfilling equity requirements Lack of approval/autorisation Use of reliable technology Corruption State of the art wind turbines Currency risks Reliable regulatory framework Price risks Secured tariffs Grid risks

Drive train topologies trends - Globally

Generator topologies trends - globally

Generator topologies trends - Regionally

Generator, gearbox and reliability

Wind Turbine components – Converters

•  The converter represents the link between the electricity generation the wind turbine and the grid.

•  Two main designs for converters, directly linked with the type of generators:

stat

or

rotor

Wind turbine components – converters

•  Trends

Top ten countries 2010 Vs. 2011