perspectives on africa’s development perspectives on africa’s development. :focus on zambia and...
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Perspectives on Africa’s Perspectives on Africa’s DevelopmentDevelopment
.
:focus on Zambia and Japan
Katsumi HIRANO
Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)
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GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa (current dollars)The volume of Africa’s GDP is correlated withresources’ price (coefficient: 0.902)
(billion $)
1980
2002
($)
Total GDP ofSub-Saharan Africa
Oil price
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Zambia’s GDP (current dollar)correlation coefficient: 0.945
Zambia’s GDP
Metal index
(billion $) ($)
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FDI/GDP ratioNow Africa has got relatively much FDI
Sub-Saharan Africa
China
Zambia
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Importers from Africa
France UKGermany
Japan
US
China
(billion $)
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Exporters to Africa
0
10
20
30
40
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
(billion $)
France
UK
Germany
Japan
US
China
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Japan’s trade with Africapercentages in the total export and import
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
export
import
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Trade with individual African countries (2007)
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Japanese importof automobiles
Japanese import of platinum
Japanese exportof automobiles
Main items in our trade with AfricaBig presence of automobile industry(million $)
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Japanese FDI toward Africaexpanding for natural resources($ million)
To Africa
To South Africa
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Japan has found ‘national interest’ in Africa • Resource security
• To share natural resources with growing China
• To establish sustainable relationship between resource-rich Africa and Asian manufacturing
• As a urgent mission, to secure second suppliers of rare metals, especially rare earth elements next to China and South AfricaIf those be found in Zambia…
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JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals Corporation)
• Botswana Geologic Remote Sensing Centre, Lobatse
• MOUs and Investment Agreements with SADC countries
• F/S support for infrastructure building needed for mining development
• Established JOGMEC investment arm
• Joint operation with Australian companies in South Africa and Botswana
• Academic support to Botswana and Mongol
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Ajinomoto (seasoning)
Sumitomo Co.(nickel, cobalt)
Mitsubishi Co.(ferrochrome)
ToyotaNissan
KomatsuHitachiToshiba
YKK(fastening)
Toyota Tsusho(automobile)
Sumitomo Chemical(Olyset-Net)
Panasonic(battery)
JT(tobacco)
Mitsui Co., Itochu(natural gas)
Mitsui Co., Marubeni(natural gas)
Mitsubishi Co.(aluminum)
Honda (motorcycle)
Leading Japanese companies in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sonny
Swaziland
Mozambique
Madagascar
Tanzania
South Africa
Namibia
Equatorial Guinea
Nigeria
Kenya
HitachiConstructionMachinery
Zambia
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Ambatovy Project in Madagascar
• 3.3 billion dollars to 9.3 billion dollars GDP
• Sherritt Intrenational (40%), Sumitomo Corporation (27.5%), Korea Resources (27.5%), SNC Lavalin (5%)
• Madagascar will be 3.8% Nickel producer and 8.3% cobalt producer in the world. Its GDP will be doubled.
• Mining, smelting, transportation system, port building, food production, CSR activities, etc.
• But, 2009 coup d'état
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‘Resource Curse’Economic Growth led by natural resources goes against Development
• Dutch Disease →retreat of production
• Rentier State →apathy to development
• Governance theory in Economics
• Political Science on Sub-Saharan Africa
Weak State, Collapsed State, Predatory State, Kleptocracy State, Vampire State, etc.
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Exchange rates (year of 2000=100)
Zambia
Equatorial Guinea
Nigeria
South Africa
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Index of ‘control of corruption’
Zambia
Nigeria
Chad
Equatorial Guinea
Sudan
Angola
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Index of ‘government effectiveness’
Zambia
Nigeria
Chad
Equatorial Guinea
Sudan
Angola
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The current situations of Japanese ODA
• Fundamental changes comparing with the assumption in ODA Charter 2003
SSA-centered
Grant-centered
• Budgetary limited
required more persuasive logics
required more up-to-date methodology
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
(million $)
East Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East
Regional distribution of Japanese ODA (2007 constant prices)
Japan does not provide ODA to East Asia?