perspectives and insights on shipping amidst a pandemic · 2020-06-19 · perspectives and insights...
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A very different world: Macroeconomics
Perspectives and insights on shipping amidst a pandemic
14 April 2020, Webinar
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The other way round – from + to -
2.6%
2.8%
3.0%
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.8%
4.0%
4.2%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Gro
wth
rat
e
Source: BIMCO, IMF
IMF Real GDP Growth Forecast 2015 - 2024
Actual growth Forecast Oct 2016 Forecast Oct 2017Forecast April 2018 Forecast April 2019 Forecast Oct 2019Forecast Jan 2020
Global GDP fell by -0.1% in 2009
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The trade-to-GDP multiplier is declining
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Trade will suffer:A V-shaped recovery is not in the cards
Unlikely rebound
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Containment measures hurting the economy
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It hits fast and hard, negatively impacting global shipping demand across the board
Public debt will rise as such measures are costly – but you should worry even more about the future if widespread layoffs and bankruptcies results in a severe global recession.
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Composite and export orders sharply down
Manufacturing PMI March 2020
Global 47.6 (-0.4)
US 48.5 (-2.2)
China 52 (+16.3)
Eurozone 44.5 (-4.7)
Japan 44.8 (-3)
The 52-level recorded in March indicates that while Chinese manufacturing grew compared to February, it remains far below January levels.
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Don’t forget the Trade War(s)
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A very different world: Oil Tanker Market
Perspectives and insights on shipping amidst a pandemic
14 April 2020, Webinar
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A crazy couple of month behind us…is floating storage still relevant?
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As growth consumption declines, stockpiles rise
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Oil volatility at all-time high
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Chartering spree from Saudi Arabia
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Any IMO 2020 upside left?!...
Dwarfed by pandemic effects
Scrubber/availability and quality
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The outlook for 2020 and 2021
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As geopolitical “support” evaporates …
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Lots of market analysis at BIMCO.org
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