performance of the fsu hurricane superensemble …...performance of the fsu hurricane superensemble...
TRANSCRIPT
-
Performance of the FSU Hurricane Superensemble during 2005 Atlantic Season
Mrinal K. Biswas*, Brian P. Mackey and T. N. Krishnamurti Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL
-
Outline Formulation of the Superensemble Overview of Operations Models used in Superensemble Key storms of 2005 Training Issues Conclusions
-
This technique demonstrates a way to post-process a set of multi-model forecasts to produce a new "optimal" forecast.
• It operates by applying unequal weights to each model for each forecast lead time. It differs from the simple ensemble mean, which assigns a weight of 1/N to each of the N multi-models.
• In the end, the Superensemble tends to reduce the individual model biases while giving more weight to the more accurate member forecasts.
• For this purpose, the Superensemble requires a training period made of up previous forecast cases in order to produce the regression coefficients (weights) for each model.
FSU Superensemble Description
-
TRAINING PHASE FORECAST PHASE
t = 0
Observed Analysis
Superensemble
TIME
MultimodelForecasts
MultimodelForecasts
t = 0
STATISTICS
Superensemble Methodology
-
Formulation of the Superensemble The superensemble forecast is constructed as,
are the ith model forecasts increments. are the mean of the ith model forecasts increments over the training period. is the observed increments mean of the training period. are the regression coefficient obtained by a minimization procedure during the training period. is the number of forecast models involved.
F iF i
O
ai
where,
N
Si 1
N
ai F i F i O
-
Formulation of Superensemble….Contd
In addition to removing the bias, the Superensemble scales the individual model forecasts contributions according to their relative performance in the training period in a way that, mathematically, is equivalent to weighting them.
Bias removed ensemble mean utilizes equal weights (= 1/N, N being the total number of models). Thus poorer models are assumed to be equal in strength to the best models after bias removal.
Multimodel bias removed ensemble is defined as, Ei 1
N 1N
F i F i O
-
Overview of operations
During 2005 approximately 400 Superensemble forecasts were disseminated to the National Hurricane Center 6 times a day (0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1800 UTC)
This year the forecasts were sent in a timely fashion to NHC
Superensemble forecasts are run as long as a system maintains minimum tropical storm intensity till its landfall/ becomes extratropical
-
Models used in the construction of the track FSU Superensemble
OFCI – Previous cycle OFCL (Official NHC forecast) interpolated
GFDI – Previous cycle GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model) interpolated
GFSI – Previous cycle GFS interpolated
UKMI – Previous cycle UKM (United Kingdom Met Office model) interpolated
NGPI – Previous cycle NGPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) interpolated
GUNA – Mean consensus of GFDI, UKMI, NGPI, and GFSI
-
Models used in the construction of the intensity FSU Superensemble
OFCI – Previous cycle OFCL (Official NHC forecast) interpolated
GFSI – Previous cycle GFS interpolated
UKMI – Previous cycle UKM (United Kingdom Met Service model) interpolated
SHF5 – SHIFOR5 (Climatology and Persistence model)
DSHP – SHIPS with inland decay algorithm
-
Performance of FSSE
Dennis (4–13 July 2005) Emily (10-21 July 2005) Katrina (23-30 August 2005) Rita (17-26 September 2005) Wilma (15-25 October 2005)
-
Hurricane Dennis 4th storm of the season (July)
Landfall on Santa Rosa Island, FL
$2.23 bn damage
-
Realtime forecasts of Hurricane Dennis
Superensemble was able to predict landfall quite accurately almost 84 hr in advance
-
Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Forecast Hours
Erro
rs (m
ph)
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE
Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
12 24 36 48 60 72Forecast Hours
Err
ors
(km
)
OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAFSSE
Track and Intensity forecast verification during Dennis
Track forecasts comparable up to 60 hour of forecast
Intensity errors are small through 72 hour of forecast
Chart1
19.4924.6116.9626.9323.819.3816.9321.3817.86
23.732.9724.7937.7533.0320.727.8728.9820.03
19.5532.4918.0436.0328.8920.7729.3625.2216.82
26.2941.421.0345.5634.4226.2937.5132.8428.35
27.745.8129.0452.6938.6226.3536.4537.7232.31
27.1437.2632.8945.1136.5722.7725.1632.1122.89
19.5542.5524.1550.8939.4819.0423.9931.6222.74
26.9454.2128.5961.1445.3418.8940.4840.2131.04
4662.141.6360.6653.5933.5862.8750.2242.78
43.755.5845.2332.235.2736.0373.646.9948.26
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
Chart2
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
848484848484848484
969696969696969696
108108108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120120120
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
19.49
24.61
16.96
26.93
23.8
19.38
16.93
21.38
17.86
23.7
32.97
24.79
37.75
33.03
20.7
27.87
28.98
20.03
19.55
32.49
18.04
36.03
28.89
20.77
29.36
25.22
16.82
26.29
41.4
21.03
45.56
34.42
26.29
37.51
32.84
28.35
27.7
45.81
29.04
52.69
38.62
26.35
36.45
37.72
32.31
27.14
37.26
32.89
45.11
36.57
22.77
25.16
32.11
22.89
19.55
42.55
24.15
50.89
39.48
19.04
23.99
31.62
22.74
26.94
54.21
28.59
61.14
45.34
18.89
40.48
40.21
31.04
46
62.1
41.63
60.66
53.59
33.58
62.87
50.22
42.78
43.7
55.58
45.23
32.2
35.27
36.03
73.6
46.99
48.26
dennis_track
Id
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE
1219.4924.6116.9626.9323.819.3816.9321.3817.86
2423.732.9724.7937.7533.0320.727.8728.9820.03
3619.5532.4918.0436.0328.8920.7729.3625.2216.82
4826.2941.421.0345.5634.4226.2937.5132.8428.35
6027.745.8129.0452.6938.6226.3536.4537.7232.31
7227.1437.2632.8945.1136.5722.7725.1632.1122.89
8419.5542.5524.1550.8939.4819.0423.9931.6222.74
9626.9454.2128.5961.1445.3418.8940.4840.2131.04
1084662.141.6360.6653.5933.5862.8750.2242.78
12043.755.5845.2332.235.2736.0373.646.9948.26
Chart1
19.4924.6116.9626.9323.819.3816.9321.3817.86
23.732.9724.7937.7533.0320.727.8728.9820.03
19.5532.4918.0436.0328.8920.7729.3625.2216.82
26.2941.421.0345.5634.4226.2937.5132.8428.35
27.745.8129.0452.6938.6226.3536.4537.7232.31
27.1437.2632.8945.1136.5722.7725.1632.1122.89
19.5542.5524.1550.8939.4819.0423.9931.6222.74
26.9454.2128.5961.1445.3418.8940.4840.2131.04
4662.141.6360.6653.5933.5862.8750.2242.78
43.755.5845.2332.235.2736.0373.646.9948.26
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
Chart2
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
848484848484848484
969696969696969696
108108108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120120120
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
19.49
24.61
16.96
26.93
23.8
19.38
16.93
21.38
17.86
23.7
32.97
24.79
37.75
33.03
20.7
27.87
28.98
20.03
19.55
32.49
18.04
36.03
28.89
20.77
29.36
25.22
16.82
26.29
41.4
21.03
45.56
34.42
26.29
37.51
32.84
28.35
27.7
45.81
29.04
52.69
38.62
26.35
36.45
37.72
32.31
27.14
37.26
32.89
45.11
36.57
22.77
25.16
32.11
22.89
19.55
42.55
24.15
50.89
39.48
19.04
23.99
31.62
22.74
26.94
54.21
28.59
61.14
45.34
18.89
40.48
40.21
31.04
46
62.1
41.63
60.66
53.59
33.58
62.87
50.22
42.78
43.7
55.58
45.23
32.2
35.27
36.03
73.6
46.99
48.26
Chart3
12121212121212
24242424242424
36363636363636
48484848484848
60606060606060
72727272727272
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
GUNA
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Hurricane Dennis Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
49.41
58.63
63.39
41.71
46.35
42.91
44.11
77.49
90.95
117.56
76.43
81.63
77.37
79.5
102.63
109.61
138.64
101.43
120.98
94.85
96.65
105.51
119.84
151.88
118.95
167.32
112.63
121.24
115.76
133.25
172.94
113.66
186.62
113.09
134.93
101.51
151.82
161.32
91.84
178.96
82.71
136.64
dennis_track
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE
1219.4924.6116.9626.9323.819.3816.9321.3817.86
2423.732.9724.7937.7533.0320.727.8728.9820.03
3619.5532.4918.0436.0328.8920.7729.3625.2216.82
4826.2941.421.0345.5634.4226.2937.5132.8428.35
6027.745.8129.0452.6938.6226.3536.4537.7232.31
7227.1437.2632.8945.1136.5722.7725.1632.1122.89
8419.5542.5524.1550.8939.4819.0423.9931.6222.74
9626.9454.2128.5961.1445.3418.8940.4840.2131.04
1084662.141.6360.6653.5933.5862.8750.2242.78
12043.755.5845.2332.235.2736.0373.646.9948.26
OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAFSSE
1249.4158.6363.3941.7146.3542.9144.11
2477.4990.95117.5676.4381.6377.3779.5
36102.63109.61138.64101.43120.9894.8596.65
48105.51119.84151.88118.95167.32112.63121.24
60115.76133.25172.94113.66186.62113.09134.93
72101.51151.82161.3291.84178.9682.71136.64
-
Hurricane Emily
Earliest forming cat 5 hurricane
Landfall near San Fernando, Mexico
-
Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Hours
Erro
rs (k
m)
OFCIAVNIGUNAGFDINGPIUKMIFSSE
Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Hours
Err
ors
(mph
)
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE
Chart1
12121212121212
24242424242424
36363636363636
48484848484848
60606060606060
72727272727272
84848484848484
96969696969696
108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120
OFCI
AVNI
GUNA
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
45.1
64.48
49.86
62.05
48.56
57.68
50.16
76.28
87.51
71.58
99.72
77.12
97.07
77.13
103.87
114.34
103.08
140.88
107.14
141.16
109.2
123.46
144.98
131.56
184.71
119.53
180.04
141.54
131.35
185.64
165.35
230.12
148.64
214.24
181.33
122.83
198.1
173.5
256.8
156.3
249.94
200.22
137.81
211.08
175.84
266.42
186.75
286.22
209.31
152.49
216.73
173.13
294.51
227.07
309.55
228.41
182.31
220.78
142.1
286
262.19
304.81
225.27
222.13
250.56
140.54
222.06
317.98
308.94
213.11
emily_track
OFCIAVNIGUNAGFDINGPIUKMIFSSE
1245.164.4849.8662.0548.5657.6850.16
2476.2887.5171.5899.7277.1297.0777.13
36103.87114.34103.08140.88107.14141.16109.2
48123.46144.98131.56184.71119.53180.04141.54
60131.35185.64165.35230.12148.64214.24181.33
72122.83198.1173.5256.8156.3249.94200.22
84137.81211.08175.84266.42186.75286.22209.31
96152.49216.73173.13294.51227.07309.55228.41
108182.31220.78142.1286262.19304.81225.27
120222.13250.56140.54222.06317.98308.94213.11
Chart1
12121212121212
24242424242424
36363636363636
48484848484848
60606060606060
72727272727272
84848484848484
96969696969696
108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120
OFCI
AVNI
GUNA
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
45.1
64.48
49.86
62.05
48.56
57.68
50.16
76.28
87.51
71.58
99.72
77.12
97.07
77.13
103.87
114.34
103.08
140.88
107.14
141.16
109.2
123.46
144.98
131.56
184.71
119.53
180.04
141.54
131.35
185.64
165.35
230.12
148.64
214.24
181.33
122.83
198.1
173.5
256.8
156.3
249.94
200.22
137.81
211.08
175.84
266.42
186.75
286.22
209.31
152.49
216.73
173.13
294.51
227.07
309.55
228.41
182.31
220.78
142.1
286
262.19
304.81
225.27
222.13
250.56
140.54
222.06
317.98
308.94
213.11
Chart2
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
848484848484848484
969696969696969696
108108108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120120120
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Hurricane Emily Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
16
20.39
15.3
20.87
19.91
13.57
16.25
15.78
14.15
21.85
29.29
18.51
30.15
29.79
18.16
28.79
21.39
21.62
22.85
34.27
18.9
36.65
35.45
21.13
35.86
23.8
20.45
25.3
38.57
19.34
40.04
34.46
24.47
34.8
29.61
18.95
24.06
41.8
19.37
45.29
36.2
24.49
31.28
33.06
19.83
22.8
47.2
14.6
51.65
41.7
27.44
30.31
38.21
21.11
24.64
52.02
22.4
54.1
44.08
26.8
27.22
44.3
26.08
27.48
52.23
31.17
54.84
43.28
35.27
28.84
47.71
30.11
26.02
43.84
31.77
45.35
33.71
35.57
27.94
36.98
26.78
21.36
43.78
23
35.98
24.4
33.53
32.78
28.3
20.64
emily_track
OFCIAVNIGUNAGFDINGPIUKMIFSSE
1245.164.4849.8662.0548.5657.6850.16
2476.2887.5171.5899.7277.1297.0777.13
36103.87114.34103.08140.88107.14141.16109.2
48123.46144.98131.56184.71119.53180.04141.54
60131.35185.64165.35230.12148.64214.24181.33
72122.83198.1173.5256.8156.3249.94200.22
84137.81211.08175.84266.42186.75286.22209.31
96152.49216.73173.13294.51227.07309.55228.41
108182.31220.78142.1286262.19304.81225.27
120222.13250.56140.54222.06317.98308.94213.11
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE
121620.3915.320.8719.9113.5716.2515.7814.15
2421.8529.2918.5130.1529.7918.1628.7921.3921.62
3622.8534.2718.936.6535.4521.1335.8623.820.45
4825.338.5719.3440.0434.4624.4734.829.6118.95
6024.0641.819.3745.2936.224.4931.2833.0619.83
7222.847.214.651.6541.727.4430.3138.2121.11
8424.6452.0222.454.144.0826.827.2244.326.08
9627.4852.2331.1754.8443.2835.2728.8447.7130.11
10826.0243.8431.7745.3533.7135.5727.9436.9826.78
12021.3643.782335.9824.433.5332.7828.320.64
-
Hurricane Katrina Costliest and one of the five deadliest hurricanes
First landfall near the border of Miami-Dade county and Broward county
Final landfall near Louisiana / Mississippi border
Around 1400 fatalities
-
Hurricane Katrina
23 Superensemble forecasts were made during Katrina
Predicted landfall 60 hours in advance Did not predict the intensification when it was
crossing Florida, GFDL did a nice job
-
Intensity forecasts covering landfall period
-
Hurricane Katrina Track verification 48 hour before landfall
-
Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
12 24 36 48 60 72
Forecast Hours
Erro
rs (k
m)
OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAENSMFSSE
Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
12 24 36 48 60 72
Forecast Hours
Erro
rs (m
ph)
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPENSMFSSE
Number of Cases
20 18 16 14 12 10
Chart1
1212121212121212
2424242424242424
3636363636363636
4848484848484848
6060606060606060
7272727272727272
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
15.99
17.65
11.96
23.83
17.42
18.46
20.04
17.13
24.21
27.41
16.23
36.08
26.64
26.64
31.26
21.96
32.56
35.58
19.19
42.55
33.21
33.71
41.59
28.84
42.88
44.85
18.32
51.94
41.24
46.66
54.55
40.2
54.82
60.28
24.82
55.89
51.08
60.47
71.03
58.34
67.04
71.42
30.25
69.43
59.8
71.87
82.75
62.57
Chart2
1212121212121212
2424242424242424
3636363636363636
4848484848484848
6060606060606060
7272727272727272
Number of Cases
20 18 16 14 12 10
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
15.99
17.65
11.96
23.83
17.42
18.46
20.04
17.13
24.21
27.41
16.23
36.08
26.64
26.64
31.26
21.96
32.56
35.58
19.19
42.55
33.21
33.71
41.59
28.84
42.88
44.85
18.32
51.94
41.24
46.66
54.55
40.2
54.82
60.28
24.82
55.89
51.08
60.47
71.03
58.34
67.04
71.42
30.25
69.43
59.8
71.87
82.75
62.57
Chart3
1212121212121212
2424242424242424
3636363636363636
4848484848484848
6060606060606060
7272727272727272
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
GUNA
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
48.5
49.3
60.6
47.53
35.37
37.78
39.64
39.7
94.13
97.93
118.15
84.27
65.42
71.72
76.37
77.55
154.34
148.04
168.96
131.33
95.99
115.39
121.47
122.68
232.36
203.38
195.4
182.24
148.9
160.49
170.05
174.19
312.66
293.18
243.91
214.03
211.05
228.29
242.33
232.02
397.73
408.59
303.45
255.53
303.59
304.4
319.18
289.25
katrina_inten
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPENSMFSSE
1215.9917.6511.9623.8317.4218.4620.0417.13
2424.2127.4116.2336.0826.6426.6431.2621.96
3632.5635.5819.1942.5533.2133.7141.5928.84
4842.8844.8518.3251.9441.2446.6654.5540.2
6054.8260.2824.8255.8951.0860.4771.0358.34
7267.0471.4230.2569.4359.871.8782.7562.57
OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAENSMFSSE
1248.549.360.647.5335.3737.7839.6439.7
2494.1397.93118.1584.2765.4271.7276.3777.55
36154.34148.04168.96131.3395.99115.39121.47122.68
48232.36203.38195.4182.24148.9160.49170.05174.19
60312.66293.18243.91214.03211.05228.29242.33232.02
72397.73408.59303.45255.53303.59304.4319.18289.25
Chart1
1212121212121212
2424242424242424
3636363636363636
4848484848484848
6060606060606060
7272727272727272
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
15.99
17.65
11.96
23.83
17.42
18.46
20.04
17.13
24.21
27.41
16.23
36.08
26.64
26.64
31.26
21.96
32.56
35.58
19.19
42.55
33.21
33.71
41.59
28.84
42.88
44.85
18.32
51.94
41.24
46.66
54.55
40.2
54.82
60.28
24.82
55.89
51.08
60.47
71.03
58.34
67.04
71.42
30.25
69.43
59.8
71.87
82.75
62.57
Chart2
1212121212121212
2424242424242424
3636363636363636
4848484848484848
6060606060606060
7272727272727272
Number of Cases
20 18 16 14 12 10
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
15.99
17.65
11.96
23.83
17.42
18.46
20.04
17.13
24.21
27.41
16.23
36.08
26.64
26.64
31.26
21.96
32.56
35.58
19.19
42.55
33.21
33.71
41.59
28.84
42.88
44.85
18.32
51.94
41.24
46.66
54.55
40.2
54.82
60.28
24.82
55.89
51.08
60.47
71.03
58.34
67.04
71.42
30.25
69.43
59.8
71.87
82.75
62.57
Chart3
1212121212121212
2424242424242424
3636363636363636
4848484848484848
6060606060606060
7272727272727272
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
GUNA
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Hurricane Katrina Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
48.5
49.3
60.6
47.53
35.37
37.78
39.64
39.7
94.13
97.93
118.15
84.27
65.42
71.72
76.37
77.55
154.34
148.04
168.96
131.33
95.99
115.39
121.47
122.68
232.36
203.38
195.4
182.24
148.9
160.49
170.05
174.19
312.66
293.18
243.91
214.03
211.05
228.29
242.33
232.02
397.73
408.59
303.45
255.53
303.59
304.4
319.18
289.25
katrina_inten
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPENSMFSSE
1215.9917.6511.9623.8317.4218.4620.0417.13
2424.2127.4116.2336.0826.6426.6431.2621.96
3632.5635.5819.1942.5533.2133.7141.5928.84
4842.8844.8518.3251.9441.2446.6654.5540.2
6054.8260.2824.8255.8951.0860.4771.0358.34
7267.0471.4230.2569.4359.871.8782.7562.57
OFCIAVNIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNAENSMFSSE
1248.549.360.647.5335.3737.7839.6439.7
2494.1397.93118.1584.2765.4271.7276.3777.55
36154.34148.04168.96131.3395.99115.39121.47122.68
48232.36203.38195.4182.24148.9160.49170.05174.19
60312.66293.18243.91214.03211.05228.29242.33232.02
72397.73408.59303.45255.53303.59304.4319.18289.25
-
Hurricane Rita
Third Cat 5 hurricane of 2005 season
-
Economic impacts of Hurricane Rita
-
Hurricane Rita
FSU Superensemble gave the best guidance for intensity during hurricane Rita at most forecast times
120 hour intensity error was around 10 mph
-
Obs 00 57.5 12 69 24 69 36 97.75 48 120.75 60 166.75 72 172.5 84 143.75 96 138 108 126.50 120 120.75
FSSE 57.5 72.26 91.07 108.26 122 126 129 130 130 130 120.98
Obs 00 109.25 12 138 24 172.5 36 166.75 48 138.00 60 132.25 72 120.75
FSSE 103.5 122.32 132.06 136.07 139.86 144.75 133.98
-
Hurricane Rita Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Hours
Erro
r (m
ph)
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE
Chart1
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
848484848484848484
969696969696969696
108108108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120120120
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Error (mph)
Hurricane Rita Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
14.95
21.96
14.13
21.08
16.48
14.89
18.11
17.55
15
21.43
37.28
21.67
35.77
27.9
21.91
25.11
28.32
22.62
24.89
49.25
25.44
48.23
33.21
23.36
30.69
35.43
22.7
28.37
57.65
31.51
57.81
39.94
25.38
35.27
42.09
22.78
34.41
60.68
36.45
62.01
47.33
28.56
40.69
46.68
29.51
38.26
64.61
44.22
65.86
55.3
30.59
39.31
49.85
29.61
36.03
63.63
43.44
66.83
59.16
28.03
34.24
49.97
23.28
26.61
58.65
42.55
64.4
56.35
21.08
33.19
46.32
16.38
19.32
58.19
38.87
69
51.06
22.14
44.85
47.92
12.71
11.88
58.27
31.05
75.52
48.68
20.32
65.55
49.9
10.33
print
FSSEENSM
121517.55
2422.6228.32
3622.735.43
4822.7842.09
6029.5146.68
7229.6149.85
8423.2849.97
9616.3846.32
10812.7147.92
12010.3349.9
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE
1214.9521.9614.1321.0816.4814.8918.1117.5515
2421.4337.2821.6735.7727.921.9125.1128.3222.62
3624.8949.2525.4448.2333.2123.3630.6935.4322.7
4828.3757.6531.5157.8139.9425.3835.2742.0922.78
6034.4160.6836.4562.0147.3328.5640.6946.6829.51
7238.2664.6144.2265.8655.330.5939.3149.8529.61
8436.0363.6343.4466.8359.1628.0334.2449.9723.28
9626.6158.6542.5564.456.3521.0833.1946.3216.38
10819.3258.1938.876951.0622.1444.8547.9212.71
12011.8858.2731.0575.5248.6820.3265.5549.910.33
-
Uncertainties in track forecasts during Rita
During Katrina the models shifted to the left while in Rita it did the opposite
-
Hurricane Wilma
All time lowest central pressure 882 mb
60 kt tropical storm to a 150 kt Cat 5 hurricane in 24 hours
-
Obs (mph) 00 74.75 12 149.5 24 172.5 36 155.25 48 143.75 60 149.5 72 143.75 84 138 96 115 108 97.75 120 97.75
Obs (mph) 00 80.5 12 172.5 24 161 36 149.5 48 149.5 60 138 72 126.5 84 97.75 96 97.75 108 103.5 120 120.75
FSSE 74.75 90.47 106.53 121.06 130.41 132.76 136.40 137.99 120.40 105.61 90.39
FSSE 80.5 97.82 116.59 129.56 137.19 140.86 142.20 139.75 131.92 90.66 80.04
-
Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for Wilma
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Forecast Hours
Erro
rs (m
ph)
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIFSSE
Chart1
1212121212121212
2424242424242424
3636363636363636
4848484848484848
6060606060606060
7272727272727272
8484848484848484
9696969696969696
OFCI
AVNI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (mph)
Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for Wilma
14.66
19.92
14.99
19.02
17.96
17.75
16.1
14.69
21.89
31.27
19.11
30.7
26.07
25.56
23.85
19.24
24.53
36.61
24.05
40.68
35.6
32.31
31.27
22.45
25.09
41.56
25.25
48.72
41
39.05
33.53
26.14
24.26
41.29
26.11
52.78
40.57
36.56
34.09
24.02
23.89
44.85
29.45
56.48
40.59
30.31
33.64
22.06
24.94
48.8
33.85
58.43
46.08
24.07
35.32
17.76
23.99
51.42
32.78
55.04
39.9
23
33.25
23.01
wilmainit
OFCIAVNIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIFSSE
1214.6619.9214.9919.0217.9617.7516.114.69
2421.8931.2719.1130.726.0725.5623.8519.24
3624.5336.6124.0540.6835.632.3131.2722.45
4825.0941.5625.2548.724139.0533.5326.14
6024.2641.2926.1152.7840.5736.5634.0924.02
7223.8944.8529.4556.4840.5930.3133.6422.06
8424.9448.833.8558.4346.0824.0735.3217.76
9623.9951.4232.7855.0439.92333.2523.01
-
Hurricane Wilma Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
12 24 36 48 60 72 84Forecast Hours
Err
ors
(km
)
OFCIAVNIUKMIGUNANGPIGFDIFSSE
Chart2
12121212121212
24242424242424
36363636363636
48484848484848
60606060606060
72727272727272
84848484848484
OFCI
AVNI
UKMI
GUNA
NGPI
GFDI
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Mean Absolute Track Errors for Wilma
41.11
49.46
42.35
39.36
58.81
54.16
35.43
60.3
85.96
61.41
69.3
104.13
97.63
54.45
86.8
104.09
68.95
86.48
135.01
115.56
64.83
132.05
127.54
96
121.68
192
154.91
100.43
198.83
175.67
146.05
167.56
246.94
212.75
161.42
282.21
251.15
218.91
235.12
312.52
297.27
244.12
411.73
343.67
312.47
302.9
361.79
394.55
312.83
Chart1
12121212121212
24242424242424
36363636363636
48484848484848
60606060606060
72727272727272
84848484848484
OFCI
AVNI
UKMI
GUNA
NGPI
GFDI
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Hurricane Wilma Mean Absolute Track Errors (km)
41.11
49.46
42.35
39.36
58.81
54.16
35.43
60.3
85.96
61.41
69.3
104.13
97.63
54.45
86.8
104.09
68.95
86.48
135.01
115.56
64.83
132.05
127.54
96
121.68
192
154.91
100.43
198.83
175.67
146.05
167.56
246.94
212.75
161.42
282.21
251.15
218.91
235.12
312.52
297.27
244.12
411.73
343.67
312.47
302.9
361.79
394.55
312.83
wilmatrk
OFCIAVNIUKMIGUNANGPIGFDIFSSE
1241.1149.4642.3539.3658.8154.1635.43
2460.385.9661.4169.3104.1397.6354.45
3686.8104.0968.9586.48135.01115.5664.83
48132.05127.5496121.68192154.91100.43
60198.83175.67146.05167.56246.94212.75161.42
72282.21251.15218.91235.12312.52297.27244.12
84411.73343.67312.47302.9361.79394.55312.83
-
Stormwise 24, 48 and 72 hour Mean Absolute Track Errors for Superensemble
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Arlen
eCi
ndy
Denn
isEm
ily
Fran
klin
Harve
yIre
ne
Katri
naMa
ria
Ophe
lia
Philip
pe Rita
Stan
Wilm
aBe
ta
Storm Names
Erro
rs (k
m)
244872
Chart1
ArleneArleneArlene
CindyCindyCindy
DennisDennisDennis
EmilyEmilyEmily
FranklinFranklinFranklin
HarveyHarveyHarvey
IreneIreneIrene
KatrinaKatrinaKatrina
MariaMariaMaria
OpheliaOpheliaOphelia
PhilippePhilippePhilippe
RitaRitaRita
StanStanStan
WilmaWilmaWilma
BetaBetaBeta
24
48
72
Storm Names
Errors (km)
Stormwise 24, 48 and 72 hour Mean Absolute Track Errors for Superensemble
91.3
112
57
79.5
121
136
77
141
200
142
284
592
106
139
152
86
185
257
77
174
289
81
152
49
103
206
125
190
344
77
162
236
90
54
100
244
69
94
Chart2
ArleneArleneArlene
CindyCindyCindy
DennisDennisDennis
EmilyEmilyEmily
FranklinFranklinFranklin
HarveyHarveyHarvey
IreneIreneIrene
KatrinaKatrinaKatrina
MariaMariaMaria
OpheliaOpheliaOphelia
PhilippePhilippePhilippe
RitaRitaRita
StanStanStan
WilmaWilmaWilma
BetaBetaBeta
24
48
72
Storm Names
Errors (mph)
Stromwise performance of Superensemble at 24. 48 and 72 hours
9.22
3.01
4.84
20
28
22
21
18
21
6
15
23
6
4
5
7
15
19
21
40
69
7
3
33
8
13
13
16
27
39
23
21
31
15
19
26
22
12
15
Sheet1
By Storm
ArleneCindyDennisEmilyFranklinHarveyIreneKatrinaMariaOpheliaPhilippeRitaStanWilmaBeta
2491.35779.5771421068677814912577905469
4811212114128413918517415210319016210094
72136200592152257289206344236244
ArleneCindyDennisEmilyFranklinHarveyIreneKatrinaMariaOpheliaPhilippeRitaStanWilmaBeta
249.224.84202166721781623151912
483.012818154154031327212615
72222123519693313393122
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Stromwise performance of Intensity Superensemble at 24, 48 and 72 hours
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Arlen
eCi
ndy
Denn
isEm
ily
Fran
klin
Harve
yIre
ne
Katri
naMa
ria
Ophe
lia
Philip
pe Rita
Stan
Wilm
aBe
ta
Storm Names
Erro
rs (m
ph)
244872
Chart1
ArleneArleneArlene
CindyCindyCindy
DennisDennisDennis
EmilyEmilyEmily
FranklinFranklinFranklin
HarveyHarveyHarvey
IreneIreneIrene
KatrinaKatrinaKatrina
MariaMariaMaria
OpheliaOpheliaOphelia
PhilippePhilippePhilippe
RitaRitaRita
StanStanStan
WilmaWilmaWilma
BetaBetaBeta
24
48
72
Storm Names
Errors (km)
Stormwise 24, 48 and 72 hour Mean Absolute Track Errors for Superensemble
91.3
112
57
79.5
121
136
77
141
200
142
284
592
106
139
152
86
185
257
77
174
289
81
152
49
103
206
125
190
344
77
162
236
90
54
100
244
69
94
Chart2
ArleneArleneArlene
CindyCindyCindy
DennisDennisDennis
EmilyEmilyEmily
FranklinFranklinFranklin
HarveyHarveyHarvey
IreneIreneIrene
KatrinaKatrinaKatrina
MariaMariaMaria
OpheliaOpheliaOphelia
PhilippePhilippePhilippe
RitaRitaRita
StanStanStan
WilmaWilmaWilma
BetaBetaBeta
24
48
72
Storm Names
Errors (mph)
Stromwise performance of Intensity Superensemble at 24, 48 and 72 hours
9.22
3.01
4.84
20
28
22
21
18
21
6
15
23
6
4
5
7
15
19
21
40
69
7
3
33
8
13
13
16
27
39
23
21
31
15
19
26
22
12
15
Sheet1
By Storm
ArleneCindyDennisEmilyFranklinHarveyIreneKatrinaMariaOpheliaPhilippeRitaStanWilmaBeta
2491.35779.5771421068677814912577905469
4811212114128413918517415210319016210094
72136200592152257289206344236244
ArleneCindyDennisEmilyFranklinHarveyIreneKatrinaMariaOpheliaPhilippeRitaStanWilmaBeta
249.224.84202166721781623151912
483.012818154154031327212615
72222123519693313393122
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Mean Absolute Track Errors for 2005 season (km)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Hours
Erro
rs (k
m)
OFCIGFSIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNABAMSCLP5FSSE
Chart4
12121212121212121212
24242424242424242424
36363636363636363636
48484848484848484848
60606060606060606060
72727272727272727272
OFCI
GFSI
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
GUNA
BAMS
CLP5
FSSE
PRTFSSE
Forecast Hours
Error (km)
Mean Absolute Track Errors for 2005 (km)
62.9
65.84
63.04
63.67
69.17
54.19
94.25
84.28
53.36
51.89
108.45
111.94
106.16
112.72
120.5
92.5
170.33
174.82
90.36
88.28
155.41
159.29
144.73
162.94
168.68
132.82
237.53
279.2
130.84
127.65
195.96
212.12
186.93
206.45
213.07
169.51
300.68
361.37
169.07
164.38
235.18
275.25
242.74
255.09
269.23
215.41
369.41
433.3
219.84
211.97
288.55
362.2
316.04
320.45
293.42
268.27
443.98
498.56
287.83
275.38
Chart1
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
848484848484848484
969696969696969696
108108108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120120120
OFCI
GFSI
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
GUNA
BAMS
CLP5
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Mean Absolute Track Errors 2005 (km)
62.9
65.84
63.04
63.67
69.17
54.19
94.25
84.28
53.36
108.45
111.94
106.16
112.72
120.5
92.5
170.33
174.82
90.36
155.41
159.29
144.73
162.94
168.68
132.82
237.53
279.2
130.84
195.96
212.12
186.93
206.45
213.07
169.51
300.68
361.37
169.07
235.18
275.25
242.74
255.09
269.23
215.41
369.41
433.3
219.84
288.55
362.2
316.04
320.45
293.42
268.27
443.98
498.56
287.83
345.53
484.42
405.51
381.37
340
329.04
530.39
578.53
361.38
407.07
619.35
521.38
450.53
398.17
396.53
603.19
660.05
448.98
436.16
681.78
592.44
473.09
418.8
419.46
649.22
755.61
469.39
536.6
777.45
731.17
561.82
452.12
505.42
681.99
854.13
560.46
Chart2
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
OFCI
GFSI
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
GUNA
BAMS
CLP5
FSSE
Forecast Hour
Error (km)
Mean Absolute Track Errors for 2005 (km)
62.9
65.84
63.04
63.67
69.17
54.19
94.25
84.28
53.36
108.45
111.94
106.16
112.72
120.5
92.5
170.33
174.82
90.36
155.41
159.29
144.73
162.94
168.68
132.82
237.53
279.2
130.84
195.96
212.12
186.93
206.45
213.07
169.51
300.68
361.37
169.07
235.18
275.25
242.74
255.09
269.23
215.41
369.41
433.3
219.84
288.55
362.2
316.04
320.45
293.42
268.27
443.98
498.56
287.83
Chart3
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
OFCI
GFSI
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
GUNA
BAMS
CLP5
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Mean Absolute track Errors for 2005 (km)
62.9
65.84
63.04
63.67
69.17
54.19
94.25
84.28
51.89
108.45
111.94
106.16
112.72
120.5
92.5
170.33
174.82
88.28
155.41
159.29
144.73
162.94
168.68
132.82
237.53
279.2
127.65
195.96
212.12
186.93
206.45
213.07
169.51
300.68
361.37
164.38
235.18
275.25
242.74
255.09
269.23
215.41
369.41
433.3
211.97
288.55
362.2
316.04
320.45
293.42
268.27
443.98
498.56
275.38
Chart5
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
848484848484848484
969696969696969696
108108108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120120120
OFCI
GFSI
GFDI
NGPI
UKMI
GUNA
BAMS
CLP5
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Mean Absolute Track Errors for 2005 season (km)
62.9
65.84
63.04
63.67
69.17
54.19
94.25
84.28
53.36
108.45
111.94
106.16
112.72
120.5
92.5
170.33
174.82
90.36
155.41
159.29
144.73
162.94
168.68
132.82
237.53
279.2
130.84
195.96
212.12
186.93
206.45
213.07
169.51
300.68
361.37
169.07
235.18
275.25
242.74
255.09
269.23
215.41
369.41
433.3
219.84
288.55
362.2
316.04
320.45
293.42
268.27
443.98
498.56
287.83
345.53
484.42
405.51
381.37
340
329.04
530.39
578.53
361.38
407.07
619.35
521.38
450.53
398.17
396.53
603.19
660.05
448.98
436.16
681.78
592.44
473.09
418.8
419.46
649.22
755.61
469.39
536.6
777.45
731.17
561.82
452.12
505.42
681.99
854.13
560.46
track
IdFSSEENSM
1253.3655.32
2490.3694.62
36130.84136.5
48169.07172.67
60219.84213.88
72287.83270.21
84361.38336.15
96448.98406.29
108469.39431.5
120560.46519.87
OFCIGFSIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNABAMSCLP5FSSE
1262.965.8463.0463.6769.1754.1994.2584.2853.36
24108.45111.94106.16112.72120.592.5170.33174.8290.36
36155.41159.29144.73162.94168.68132.82237.53279.2130.84
48195.96212.12186.93206.45213.07169.51300.68361.37169.07
60235.18275.25242.74255.09269.23215.41369.41433.3219.84
72288.55362.2316.04320.45293.42268.27443.98498.56287.83
84345.53484.42405.51381.37340329.04530.39578.53361.38
96407.07619.35521.38450.53398.17396.53603.19660.05448.98
108436.16681.78592.44473.09418.8419.46649.22755.61469.39
120536.6777.45731.17561.82452.12505.42681.99854.13560.46
IdCLP5ETAIAF1IGUNAGUNSBAMD
1284.2894.9677.5554.1955.0171.6
24174.82175.21129.6592.593.67127.81
36279.2262.97186.59132.82134.5181.91
48361.37348.12234.99169.51169.53239.16
60433.3439.34303.31215.41214.03300.83
72498.56520.87389.58268.27257.59382.08
84578.53572.88-99.9329.04305.36509.62
96660.05-99.9-99.9396.53368.65655.57
108755.61-99.9-99.9419.46387.32778.47
120854.13-99.9-99.9505.42465.83968.06
IdBAMMBAMSA9UKA98ELBARGFNI
1268.6294.2575.3474.566.6669.65
24117.67170.33135.02129.65127.74122.38
36167.19237.53201.52188.98204.21175.88
48217.45300.68262.95255.33292.66231.91
60277.24369.41335.78322.15409.24304.32
72351.43443.98408.87394.81567.39385.63
84449.77530.39-99.9480.03728.03454.09
96538.85603.19-99.9588.95895.07540.17
108561.88649.22-99.9677.261173.29531.17
120661.44681.99-99.9756.421538.56646.21
Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6Model 7FSSE
1262.965.8463.0463.6769.1754.1994.2553.36
24108.45111.94106.16112.72120.592.5170.3390.36
36155.41159.29144.73162.94168.68132.82237.53130.84
48195.96212.12186.93206.45213.07169.51300.68169.07
60235.18275.25242.74255.09269.23215.41369.41219.84
72288.55362.2316.04320.45293.42268.27443.98287.83
OFCIGFSIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNABAMSCLP5FSSEPRTFSSE
1262.965.8463.0463.6769.1754.1994.2584.2853.3651.89
24108.45111.94106.16112.72120.592.5170.33174.8290.3688.28
36155.41159.29144.73162.94168.68132.82237.53279.2130.84127.65
48195.96212.12186.93206.45213.07169.51300.68361.37169.07164.38
60235.18275.25242.74255.09269.23215.41369.41433.3219.84211.97
72288.55362.2316.04320.45293.42268.27443.98498.56287.83275.38
OFCIGFSIGFDINGPIUKMIGUNABAMSCLP5FSSE
1262.965.8463.0463.6769.1754.1994.2584.2851.89
24108.45111.94106.16112.72120.592.5170.33174.8288.28
36155.41159.29144.73162.94168.68132.82237.53279.2127.65
48195.96212.12186.93206.45213.07169.51300.68361.37164.38
60235.18275.25242.74255.09269.23215.41369.41433.3211.97
72288.55362.2316.04320.45293.42268.27443.98498.56275.38
track
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
Model 5
Model 6
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Error (km)
2005 Mean Absolute Track Errors
-
Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for 2005 (m/s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Hours
Erro
rs (m
/s)
OFCIGFSIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE
Chart1
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
848484848484848484
969696969696969696
108108108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120120120
OFCI
GFSI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hour
Error (mph)
Mean Absolute Intensity Errors 2005 (mph)
10.17
12.97
10.63
14.43
11.71
10.32
11.77
11.23
9.87
14.73
19.82
15.22
22.57
17.72
14.66
18.39
16.45
14.35
16.91
24.41
17.67
27.44
20.75
16.91
22.77
19.51
16.55
19.44
27.71
18.89
31.08
22.78
19.99
26
23.06
18.74
21.25
30.21
21.12
32.98
24.2
21.72
27.54
25.92
21.04
21.74
31.54
21.82
34.29
25.93
23.91
28
27.13
22.07
21.55
34.1
23.07
35.88
27.53
22.93
26.89
29.02
23.22
22.89
35.57
26.61
36.54
27.06
24.68
30
30.19
25.01
24.68
34.98
28.45
34.01
26.74
27.45
34.18
28.46
25.56
23.88
33.49
27.64
30.18
28.37
28.37
35.02
23.67
25.14
Chart2
1212121212121212
2424242424242424
3636363636363636
4848484848484848
6060606060606060
7272727272727272
8484848484848484
9696969696969696
108108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120120
GFSI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hour
Errors (mph)
Mean Absolute Intensity Errors (mph)
12.97
10.63
14.43
11.71
10.32
11.77
11.23
9.87
19.82
15.22
22.57
17.72
14.66
18.39
16.45
14.35
24.41
17.67
27.44
20.75
16.91
22.77
19.51
16.55
27.71
18.89
31.08
22.78
19.99
26
23.06
18.74
30.21
21.12
32.98
24.2
21.72
27.54
25.92
21.04
31.54
21.82
34.29
25.93
23.91
28
27.13
22.07
34.1
23.07
35.88
27.53
22.93
26.89
29.02
23.22
35.57
26.61
36.54
27.06
24.68
30
30.19
25.01
34.98
28.45
34.01
26.74
27.45
34.18
28.46
25.56
33.49
27.64
30.18
28.37
28.37
35.02
23.67
25.14
Chart3
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
OFCI
GFSI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hour
Errors (mph)
Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for 2005 (mph)
10.17
12.97
10.63
14.43
11.71
10.32
11.77
11.23
9.87
14.73
19.82
15.22
22.57
17.72
14.66
18.39
16.45
14.35
16.91
24.41
17.67
27.44
20.75
16.91
22.77
19.51
16.55
19.44
27.71
18.89
31.08
22.78
19.99
26
23.06
18.74
21.25
30.21
21.12
32.98
24.2
21.72
27.54
25.92
21.04
21.74
31.54
21.82
34.29
25.93
23.91
28
27.13
22.07
Chart4
121212121212121212
242424242424242424
363636363636363636
484848484848484848
606060606060606060
727272727272727272
848484848484848484
969696969696969696
108108108108108108108108108
120120120120120120120120120
OFCI
GFSI
GFDI
UKMI
SHF5
DSHP
GFNI
ENSM
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (m/s)
Mean Absolute Intensity Errors for 2005 (m/s)
10.17
12.97
10.63
14.43
11.71
10.32
11.77
11.23
9.87
14.73
19.82
15.22
22.57
17.72
14.66
18.39
16.45
14.35
16.91
24.41
17.67
27.44
20.75
16.91
22.77
19.51
16.55
19.44
27.71
18.89
31.08
22.78
19.99
26
23.06
18.74
21.25
30.21
21.12
32.98
24.2
21.72
27.54
25.92
21.04
21.74
31.54
21.82
34.29
25.93
23.91
28
27.13
22.07
21.55
34.1
23.07
35.88
27.53
22.93
26.89
29.02
23.22
22.89
35.57
26.61
36.54
27.06
24.68
30
30.19
25.01
24.68
34.98
28.45
34.01
26.74
27.45
34.18
28.46
25.56
23.88
33.49
27.64
30.18
28.37
28.37
35.02
23.67
25.14
inten
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
OFCIGFSIGFDIUKMISHF5DSHPGFNIENSMFSSE
1210.1712.9710.6314.4311.7110.3211.7711.239.87
2414.7319.8215.2222.5717.7214.6618.3916.4514.35
3616.9124.4117.6727.4420.7516.9122.7719.5116.55
4819.4427.7118.8931.0822.7819.992623.0618.74
6021.2530.2121.1232.9824.221.7227.5425.9221.04
7221.7431.5421.8234.2925.9323.912827.1322.07
8421.5534.123.0735.8827.5322.9326.8929.0223.22
9622.8935.5726.6136.5427.0624.683030.1925.01
10824.6834.9828.4534.0126.7427.4534.1828.4625.56
12023.8833.4927.6430.1828.3728.3735.0223.6725.14
Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6FSSE
124.545995.797594.751616.450215.234374.613044.41189
246.584318.859546.8033410.088797.920846.553026.41445
367.5587710.911277.8984912.265689.275257.558777.397850.447
488.6896812.386378.4438313.8927610.182668.935538.37678
609.4987513.503879.4406414.7420610.81749.708849.40488
729.7177814.098389.7535415.3276311.5907110.687779.86529
inten
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
Model 5
Model 6
FSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (m/s)
2005 Mean Absolute Intensity Errors
-
Timing error corrections
Timing errors are caused by the error in the forecasts of the translation velocity of the hurricane
For a given hour of forecast the correction is obtained from training phase and it is applied in the forecast phase
At present we are still testing it and if found consistent will be implemented in the next season
-
Post Real time Superensemble track errors for 2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Hours
Erro
rs (k
m)
RTFSSEPRTFSSE
Correction applied on around 400 forecasts on 2005 season realtime data sets. The track errors improved by as much as 60 km at 120 hour.
Chart1
1212
2424
3636
4848
6060
7272
8484
9696
108108
120120
RTFSSE
PRTFSSE
Forecast Hours
Errors (km)
Post Real time Superensemble track errors for 2005
53.36
51.89
90.36
88.28
130.84
127.65
169.07
164.38
219.84
211.97
287.83
275.38
361.38
354.52
448.98
429.83
469.39
431.51
560.46
499.31
tcorse_mae
RTFSSEPRTFSSE
1253.3651.89
2490.3688.28
36130.84127.65
48169.07164.38
60219.84211.97
72287.83275.38
84361.38354.52
96448.98429.83
108469.39431.51
120560.46499.31
-
Training Issues
Training forms the backbone of the Superensemble Technique The larger the training data set, better the forecast in general Model changes during later part of 2004 season and during the 2005 season, affected the Superensemble performance
-
During the early part of the 2005 season the length of the modified training set was small making the forecast less spectacular as we saw in 2004 season
As the season progressed new data sets were
included in the training set which helped in improving the Superensemble forecasts
-
Conclusions Superensemble did a fairly good job in predicting the tracks
through 72 hour of forecast
Superensemble produced the best intensity forecasts along with DSHP at most forecast times
The performance was not so impressive as 2004 probably due to large scale model changes which seriously affected the training data sets
Post realtime analysis with the correction in the timings improved the skill of the Superensemble and will be implemented in the next hurricane season
-
Acknowledgements
NHC/TPC for providing the input member models in real-time
All of the dynamical modeling centers (NCEP, GFDL, FNMOC, UKMO) for providing hurricane track and intensity forecast data to NHC
-
Thank You
Performance of the FSU Hurricane Superensemble during 2005 Atlantic SeasonOutline Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Formulation of Superensemble….ContdOverview of operationsSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Performance of FSSESlide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Hurricane KatrinaSlide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Hurricane RitaSlide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Timing error correctionsSlide Number 40Training IssuesSlide Number 42ConclusionsAcknowledgementsSlide Number 45