Penn State Weather Camps

Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines

Sat I - NWS - Radar - Radar

sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

Know what to expect! = Climo.

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Climatology Forecast = averages for today

Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s values

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Extrapolation = Look upstream to see what’s coming!◦ Sat IR - Sat II - Sat VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 –

sfc map 3

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Weather Models … What’s under the hood?

NAM GFS ECMWF CMC

Mathematical Equations …. “Perfectly express the physical processes of the atmosphere”

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Weather Models … What do we “feed” them?

Run 2 times a day (12z/00z)

NAM GFS ECMWF CMC

12

3

8

7 6

5

4

910

11

Basic Forecast GuidelinesDeterministic Forecast

◦precise/exact/no uncertainty provided

Non-Deterministic Forecast ◦uncertainty provided via a range or probability

◦High: 82◦Cloud: 8◦Rain: Yes

Deterministic or Non?