pelamis - moving wave energy from demonstration to ... pelamis - moving wave energy from...

Energy Institute, London 10 December 2013 www.energyinst.org

Pelamis - moving wave energy from demonstration to

commercialisation

EI Evening Lecture Programme 2013

Sponsored by:

©2012 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1

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Energy Institute

London 10 December 2013 Simon Cheeseman – ETI Marine Programme Manager


Who is the ETI?

• The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI)

is a public-private partnership between

global industries and UK Government

• Safeguarding affordable and secure

future energy mix

• Delivering proof of concept for new

energy technologies

• Our projects impact economic

development


9 Technology Programme areas

Delivering...

New knowledge

Technology development

Technology demonstration

ETI Project Portfolio


•Basic principles observed and reported 1

• Technology concept / application formulated 2 • Analytical and experimental critical function / characteristic proof-of-

concept 3

• Technology basic validation in a laboratory environment 4

• Technology basic validation in a relevant environment 5 • Technology model or prototype demonstration in a relevant

environment 6

• Technology prototype demonstration in an operational environment 7 • Actual Technology completed and qualified through test and

demonstration 8

• Actual Technology qualified through successful mission operations 9

Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)


ETI / UKERC Roadmap

• Published in October 2010

• Provides the ETI / UKERC view on:

• The key technology & deployment issues

facing the UK marine energy sector

• How these issues should be prioritised (in the

context of potential ETI interventions)

• Technology cost and performance targets to

2050 that will be required to deliver significant

UK deployment

• Used by ETI to help define project interventions


ETI / UKERC Roadmap targets

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

UK Deployment

0 GW

~ 250 - 450 MW pa

(200 - 500 units pa)

~ 600 - 1200 MW pa

(500 - 1200 units pa)

FULL-SCALE DEMO

SMALL ARRAYS (2-10 MW)

LARGE ARRAYS (10 – 100 MW)

10 - 20 GW

Technology & System Performance

CAPEX

O&M Costs

Array Load Factor

Availability

CURRENT ESTIMATES

4,000 – 7,000 £/kW

1.5 – 4.0 p/kWh

25 – 35 %

75 - 85 %

2,500 – 4,000 £/kW

1.0 – 2.5 p/kWh

35 - 40 %

90 %

1,500 – 2,000 £/kW

0.3 – 1.0 p/kWh

40 - 45 %

95 - 98 %

1st GENERATION SYSTEMS

2nd and 3rd GENERATION SYSTEMS

RAPID BUILDOUT OF NEW PROJECTS

Overall COE 17 – 40 p/kWh 9 – 18 p/kWh 5 – 8 p/kWh

1 – 2 GW

~ 500 - 1200 MW pa

(400 - 1500 units pa)

6 – 12 GW

~ 150 - 300 MW pa

(100 - 300 units pa)

9 – 18 GW

ASSET REPLACEMENT + REDUCING NUMBER OF NEW PROJECTS

2,000 – 2,500 £/kW

0.5 – 1.5 p/kWh

37 - 42 %

90 - 95 %

7 – 10 p/kWh


ETI Marine Energy Projects Portfolio


Wave energy converter (WEC) System

Demonstrator

What?

Analysis and design project for WEC arrays (10MW+)

How?

• Commenced Feb 13 completed Nov 13. Detailed

design & techno-economic evaluation (system-level

innovations) of Pelamis P2 design.

• Next steps practical demonstration of elements of

WEC array concept in a realistic environment.

Why?

• To demonstrate the ability of WEC arrays to meet

the cost & performance needed to deliver material

UK deployment levels.


For more information

about the ETI visit

www.eti.co.uk

For the latest ETI news and

announcements email

[email protected]

The ETI can also be

followed on Twitter at

twitter.com/the_ETI

Energy Technologies Institute

Holywell Building

Holywell Park

Loughborough

LE11 3UZ

For all general enquiries

telephone the ETI on

01509 202020.

Commercial in Confidence

Richard Yemm Chief Executive Officer

11 www.pelamiswave.com

Why wave energy?

• Major global resource, global market >€1,000bn

• Forecastable, out of sight, out of mind

• Projects will be bigger than tidal & can scale faster…

Real value to energy portfolio & mix

Major industrial & export opportunity

Ocean power conversion principles and theoretical global resource

Description Estimated global

resource

Wave power Surface and subsurface motion of the waves 8,000-80,000

TWh/year

Ocean thermal energy Uses the temperature differential between cold water from the deep

ocean and warm surface water

10,000 TWh/year

Osmotic energy Pressure differential between salt and fresh water 2,000 TWh/year

Tidal energy Hydrokinetic energy that harvests the energy of ocean currents and

tides

800 TWh/year

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008

www.pelamiswave.com

Pelamis WEC – fundamental principles

Inherent survivability Optimal absorption

Available technology Viable I,O&M strategy

PELAMIS IS A UNIQUE COMBINATION OF THESE ESSENTIAL PRINCIPLES

www.pelamiswave.com

Pelamis WEC – development track record

Proof of concept based

with 1/7th scale model.

World’s first electricity

from offshore waves

into a national grid, with

1st full scale prototype.

World’s first wave farm.

Three full scale

machines operating in

Agucadoura (Portugal).

Upgraded prototype

installed in Orkney,

proving remote

connection system.

E.ON places order for

Pelamis machine – the

first order of a wave

power device by a utility.

Ministerial launch of

E.ON’s P2 machine.

Installed and operating at

Orkney.

Scottish Power’s

Pelamis deployment. –

UK’s first ‘wave-farm’

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Initial array

deployment

Company founded to

design and develop

wave energy converter

technology.

1

1

1 1

1

• Systematic attainment of “World’s first” & “World’s only” milestones

• Has been a difficult path… but we are finally getting there

• Three major utilities aligned with Pelamis – initial technology convergence…

• Unique and solid IP platform – patents, knowhow, technical lockouts etc

www.pelamiswave.com

Pelamis WEC – initial project pipeline

Key

Connected or agreed grid connection

Signed lease agreement with Crown Estates

Advanced development stage

Scotland

Pelamis HQ

2

3

1

4

5

E.ON Orkney site 50MW

Vattenfall Shetland 10MW (40MW)

Pelamis Bernera 10MW

Pelamis Farr Point 50MW

SPR Marwick 50MW

2

3

1

4

5

www.pelamiswave.com

http://www.pelamiswave.com/

http://www.pelamiswave.com/

Video tour!

http://www.youtube.com/user/PelamisWavePower

Operations

CONFIDENTIAL 17

Pelamis WEC – learning in industrial technology

P2 is pretty much here…

• Fundamentals are right

• Fully functional

• Ultimate potential reassuringly

greater

• Visible path to get here, with lots of

options…

• Combinations of learning by doing,

scale, volume, and from fundamental

research

• As usual, will get much of the way

quickly & efficiently!

Forward business plan – four strands

1 On-going P2 operations

(maximise value from existing assets)

3 Farr Point project site

(accelerated ‘Array TRL8’)

4 Intense parallel R&D

(accelerate CoE convergence)

2 Design & build of P2e+

(step change CoE reduction)

Cost of Energy – the most important metric…

Optimising CoE trajectory for Pelamis

has been, and is, key to business case

Cumulative capacity

Conceptual phase

First-of-a-kind

Capital cost

Normal learning curve Extended learning

Rapid

learning

Cumulative capacity

Conceptual phase

First-of-a-kind

Capital cost

Normal learning curve Extended learning

Rapid

learning

• All new technologies follow a similar cost-learning process

• Cost reductions delivered through a mix of innovation and volume effects

• Optimising this mix will give lowest “cost to commercialise”

Pelamis WEC – Cost of Energy assessment

Well validated Inputs:

• Costs, performance, O&M models, balance of plant, facilities, etc

• Peer reviewed with range of stakeholders

CoE modelling:

• Full project model

• Uncertainties quantified

• Sensitivity analysis incorporated

• Peer reviewed

Progress Iterations Update rate

2000 2000 500

select above Machine installed cost (£m)

option mean stdev lower mode upper Rating CF notes

1 162 0.082 3.02 3.20 3.42 0.5 32.4%

2 273 0.082 3.39 3.62 3.89 0.8 34.1% Concrete

3 202 0.082 3.59 3.82 4.07 0.6 33.7%

4 345 0.082 4.06 4.32 4.61 1.0 34.5% Concrete

MONTE CARLO INPUTS

PARAMETER Generated Expected LOWER MODE UPPER MEAN STDEV

Annual average Shetland (kW) 359 345 345 0.082

Machine installed cost (£m) 4.323 4.330 4.056 4.322 4.611

Spares (£m) 0.87 0.80 0.8 0.2

Project development (£m) 1.05 1.00 0.9 1 1.1

Availability 92.9% 93.0% 0.91 0.93 0.95

Transmission eff iciency 97.5% 98.0% 0.97 0.98 0.99

£m/MW Balance of plant 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.30 0.35

£/MWh (equivalent 5 x ROCs) 320.4 320.0 300 320 340

O&M (£k/machine/yr) 50 50 45 50 55

Grid charges, TNuoS etc £k/MW/yr 131 125 80 100 195

Other operating costs £k/yr 150 200 200 20

Annual insurance (% capex) 1.3% 1.2% 0.01 0.012 0.014

Annual lease costs (% sales) 0.33% 0.34% 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035

Decommissioning (£m/machine) 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.1 0.15

4Machine option

Perf (kW ann avg)

Run iterations

VA

LID

AT

ED

AS

SU

MP

TIO

NS

ETI WEC – Phase 1 Work Packages

WP8 CoE modelling

YIELD

CAPEX

OPEX

WP3 Hydrodynamics &

Machine Geometry

WP4 Main Structure &

Mechanical Elements

WP5 Control &

Power Take-off

WP7 Array

Architecture

WP6 Reliability,

Availability, O&M

CoE

Structured & comprehensive programme

covering all key cost of energy drivers

ETI WEC – Phase 1 workplan

Jan 2013 Nov 2013

Innovative Technical

Solutions

• Review & rank

innovations

• Describe onward

methodologies

• Assimilate data

from current P2

System Integration

• Innovation

embodiments

• Design proposals

• Performance

modelling

• Reliability analysis

• Costs

Demonstration &

Phase 2 plan

• LCoE impact

• O&M innovations

• Array architectures

• Phase 2 plan

ETI WEC – forecast CoE impact

Huge impact and return on

investment possible from

early RD&D investment

• Many scenarios analysed and interpreted

• Large and ‘persistent’ reduction on CoE through commercialisation

• Key drivers/opportunities:

YIELD, STRUCTURAL COST, RELIABILITY

ETI WEC – forecast CoE impact

• Total cumulative spend (area under the curve) gives better ‘visualisation’

• Curves are cumulative cost of all generation above current best low

carbon generation (wind, nuclear etc) => “cost to converge”

Optimising innovation progression best

way to minimise cost to consumer…

• Even “basic track” is lower than any previous “cost to converge”

• With intensive RD&D in parallel there is the clear opportunity to

dramatically reduce the “cost to converge” further

Conclusions

• Pelamis has established a market leading position in wave energy

• RD&D to date has provided a unique and solid platform for CoE analysis

• ETI WEC Phase 1 has shown there are many options to pursue

• Aggressive RD&D in parallel with initial roll-out key to optimising track

• Onward business plan structured around these key priorities

THANK YOU!

pelamis - moving wave energy from demonstration to ... pelamis - moving wave energy from...

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