pei’s changing climate: a look into the past 100 years
TRANSCRIPT
PEI’s Changing Climate:A Look Into the Past 100 Years
Adam FenechUniversity of Prince Edward Island
April 17, 2012
PEI Climate Observations
2
PEI Temperatures
8
Annual Mean TemperaturePrince Edward Island
1961 to 1990
Charlottetown (6.3◦C) about a degree warmer than Summerside and Monticello (about the same at 5.5 ◦C and 5.3 ◦C)
and about one-and-a-half degrees warmer than O’Leary (4.9 ◦C)
3
4
5
6
7
1961
1971
1981
◦C
Year
Charlottetown Summerside Monticello O`Leary
3
PEI Precipitation
1900
Annual Total PrecipitationPrince Edward Island 1961 to 1990
Summerside the wettest/snowiest on average (1490mm) –about 5% wetter than Charlottetown (1424mm),
about 10% wetter than Monitcello (1326) and about 25% wetter than O’Leary
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1961 1971 1981
mm
Year
Charlottetown Summerside Monticello O`Leary
4
Looking Into the Past:100 Years of Charlottetown Observations
5
3
4
5
6
7
8
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
◦C
Year
Annual Mean TemperatureCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 2011
5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.65.9
6
7
Climate Normals (30 year periods)Mean Temperature
Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1◦C
5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1881 to
1910
1891 to
1920
1901 to
1930
1911 to
1940
1921 to
1950
1931 to
1960
1941 to
1970
1951 to
1980
1961 to
1990
1971 to
2000
1981 to
2010
◦C
6
Climate Normal (30-year period)
up 0.5 ◦C when comparedto 100 years ago
6
8
10
12
◦C
Annual TemperaturesCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010
1.29 ◦C
1.14 ◦C
0
2
4
6
1981 1991 2001
◦
Year
Maximum Minimum Mean
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1.49 ◦C
6
8
10
12
◦C
Annual TemperaturesCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010
1.29 ◦C
1.14 ◦C
Dave says: “climate change happens while we are
sleeping”
0
2
4
6
1981 1991 2001
◦
Year
Maximum Minimum Mean
8
1.49 ◦C
Warming of Winter
10
15
20
Seasonal Mean TemperaturesCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 2011
0.6 ◦C
0.4 ◦C
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
◦C
Year
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
9
1.7 ◦C
1 ◦C
Monthly Temperatures – 100 Years Later
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
C
Difference between 1881-1910 and 1981-2010 in the Monthly Mean TemperaturesCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
0.4 0.4
0.5
0.40.3
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
◦C
10
Extreme Hot >27.5◦C
0
5
10
15
20
25
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
# of days Tmax> 27.5◦C
Extreme Hot DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 2011
Extreme Hot Days
Over previous 138 years
1937 experienced most extreme hot days at 24
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1981 1991 2001
# of days Tmax>27.5◦C
Year
Extreme Hot DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010
2.5 days
Over previous 30 years
2001 experienced most extreme hot
days at 17
11
Extreme Cold <-20◦C
5
10
15
20
25
# of days Tmin<-20◦C
Extreme Cold DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 20111993 the year with the most extreme cold days over the past 30 years
Pinatubo
0
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1981 1991 2001
# of days Tmin<-20◦C
Year
Extreme Cold DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010
12
2 days
Freeze Thaw Period
100
120
# of days Tmax>0 and Tmin<0
Freeze-Thaw CycleCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 2011
33 days
40
60
80
1873
1883
1893
1903
1913
1923
1933
1943
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
# of days Tmax>0 and Tmin<0
Year
13
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
190018…
18…
18…
19…
19…
19…
19…
19…
19…
19…
19…
19…
19…
20…
mm
Year
Annual Total PrecipitationCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1873 to 2010
1393
1424
1392
Climate Normals (30 year periods)Total Precipitation
Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island
Ø(↓2%)
1381
13151307 1314 1316
13321345
1393 1392
1340
1881 to
1910
1891 to
1920
1901 to
1930
1911 to
1940
1921 to
1950
1931 to
1960
1941 to
1970
1951 to
1980
1961 to
1990
1971 to
2000
1981 to
2010
mm
14
Climate Normals(30-year period)up and down
over past 138 yearsrecently drier
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
Monthly PrecipitationCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010
Past 30 years, rain in prime summer months
has increased
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% change
15
Past 30 years, rain in prime
growing months has decreased
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
0.38
0.40
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
1981 1991 2001
% of days =>1mm
Year
Precipitation FrequencyCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010 7%
Over previous 30 yearsRaining/snowing less often
Precipitation IntensityCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010Year
15%
Over previous 30 years
Raining/snowing less hard
16
6
8
10
12
14
1981 1991 2001
mm/event
Year
Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island1981 to 2010
50
60
Premium Golf DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island
1981 to 2010
13 days
17
0
10
20
30
40
1981 1991 2001
# of days
Year
Note: raw climate data used
Conclusions
• PEI climate changing “warmer and drier”• Winter night-time lows driving temperature increase “climate change happens while you’re sleeping”
• Extreme hot days going up• Extreme hot days going up• Extreme cold days going down• Raining/snowing less often and less hard• Premium golf days increased by almost two weeks over past 30 years (raw data)
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