Pebble ProjectSocioeconomic Baseline

Prepared for: Baseline Environmental Team Agency

Meetings

Prepared by: McDowell Group, Inc.

November 17-19, 2008

Day 3_1345_Socioeconomics_McDowell_Logan.mp3

Scope of Work

Demographics Baseline Community Infrastructure Baseline Cash Economy Baseline Health and Social Baseline (added to scope in 2007)

Work Plans

For efficiency reasons, McDowell Group did not update baseline indicators in 2008.

Rather in 2009, baseline will be updated with 2007 and 2008 data where available.

Communities Included

Iliamna Lake/Lake Clark CommunitiesKokhanok, Iliamna, Newhalen, Nondalton, Pedro Bay, Port Alsworth, Levelock, and Igiugig

Nushagak/Bristol Bay BoroughBalance of Lake and Peninsula Borough, Bristol Bay Borough, and Dillingham Census Area

Cook Inlet/Mat-Su BoroughKenai Peninsula Borough, Municipality of Anchorage, and Matanuska-Susitna Borough

Demographics Content/Scope

Population Trends (1990-2006) Population Characteristics (1990 and 2000)

Age characteristics Gender Race Migration

Household and Family characteristics (1990 and 2000) Language

DemographicsData Sources/Limitations

U.S. Census Bureau Comprehensive local-level data Dated data Misses key seasonal trends

ADF&G Subsistence Survey Alaska Department of Labor and

Workforce Development More current, but limited local-level data Estimates only

Iliamna L./L. Clark CommunitiesPopulation (2000-2006)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Igiugig

Iliamna

Kokhanok

Levelock

Newhalen

Nondalton

Pedro Bay

Port Alsworth

Lake & Peninsula BoroughPopulation (2000-2006)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Iliamna L./L. Clark Communities Rest of Lake & Pen. Borough

EconomyContent/Scope

Cash & Non-cash Economic Profile Employment/Unemployment (1990, 2000, 2006)

Annual average, peak, key local employers Commercial fishing activity/permit holders/crew

(1990-2006) Capital improvement projects (2002-2007) Workforce attributes (1990, 2000) Per capita and household income (1990, 2000) Public assistance receipts (2001-2006)

Iliamna L./L. Clark CommunitiesMedian Household Income (2000)

$21,750

$60,625

$36,250

$19,583

$36,750

$58,750

$36,442

$51,571

$19,583$18,750

Iliamna L./L. Clark CommunitiesPer Capita Income (2000)

$13,172

$19,741

$7,732

$12,199

$9,447$8,411

$18,419

$21,716

$15,361

$22,660

Iliamna Lake/L. Clark CommunitiesPop. > 16 Years Not In Labor Force (2000)

55%

28%

68%

53%

61%

69%

21%

33%

53%

35%

Cash Economy Content/Scope

Basic Industry Overview Commercial fishing/seafood processing Visitor industry Government Other mining activity

Regional economic outlook

Cash Economy Data Sources

Local sources Planning documents Interviews

State sources DOLWD, DCED, ADF&G, H&SS, DNR

Federal Sources Census, BEA, NPS

Other Internal documents

Bristol Bay FisheriesEx-vessel Value & Harvest Trends (1990-2006)

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Ex-Vessel Value ($000's) Harvest (000's) Number of Fish

Bristol Bay FisheriesRes./Non-Res. Permits Fished (1990-2006)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

AK Resident Non-Resident

Cash Economy Research Challenges

Employment & income DOLWD data does not include self-employed or

military Data may be reported by company HQ, not job

location Unemployment data is based on applications for

benefits No resident/non-resident data Confidentiality

Community InfrastructureContent/Scope

Housing Number of housing units, heating

source, value, other characteristics Utilities

Water and wastewater Solid waste Communications

Community InfrastructureContent/Scope

Education Facilities, Enrollment, Staff

Health Care Clinic services EMS

Public Safety Law enforcement, Fire/Rescue

Community Infrastructure Data Sources/Limitations

Local sources Interviews

State sources DCED, DEED, DPS

Federal sources Census

Other Regional housing authorities, Regional health care providers Communications carriers

Health and Social Content/Scope

Health Birth rates, and death rates and

leading causes of death Hospitalizations by diagnoses Leading causes of non-fatal injuries

Health and Social Content/Scope

Crime Reported crime incidences

Education School inventory and enrollment Graduation and dropout rates Assessments -- Annual Yearly Progress,

Standards Based Assessments, High School Graduation Qualifying Examinations

Health and Social Data Sources

State sources Department of Health and Social Services,

Bureau of Vital Statistics Department of Public Safety Department of Education and Early

Development

Federal sources U.S. Census FBI

EducationDrop-out Rates (Grade 7-12) (SY06/07)

5.2%

9.2%

2.4%

5.8%

Lake & Pen. SD Dillingham SD Bristol Bay SD Statewide average

EducationGraduation Rates (Grade 9-12 Cohort)

54.0%59.2%

78.6%

61.6%

Lake & Pen. SD Dillingham SD Bristol Bay SD Statewide average

Health and Social Research Challenges

Indicator Selection Criteria: Collected by reliable sources (such as

government agencies or experienced private sector researchers)

Regularly and systematically updated Related to specifically, geographic area

studied However, little comparative, community-

level data and some census-level data are available.

Pebble ProjectSocioeconomic Baseline

Prepared for: Baseline Environmental Team Agency

Meetings

Prepared by: McDowell Group, Inc.

November 17-19, 2008