paul posner and tim conlan george mason university
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REBUILDING FISCAL FEDERALISM IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE FINANCIAL
CRISIS: THE UNITED STATES
Paul Posner and Tim ConlanGeorge Mason University
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The Great Recession: Impact on the U.S. Federal SystemFederal deficit grows to 10% of GDP as
revenues decline and countercyclical spending increases
Sharp decline in state government tax revenues
Delayed impact on local revenues, but with wide variations; rise of municipal bankrupcies
Federal countercyclical aid totaling $285 billion moderates impact of state revenue decline, and additional aid to the financial system (TARP) ameliorates length and depth of recession.
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Sharp Rise in Federal Deficit as Revenues Decline, Spending Rises
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State Revenues were Significantly Reduced by the Recession butImpact on Local Revenues Delayed
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State Revenue Declines Created Major Budget Shortfalls
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State Budget Shortfalls Substantially Reduced by Federal Countercyclical Aid
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
20120.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
Total Outlays to State and Local Governments by Category (1948-2013)
Payments for IndividualsCapital InvestmentRemainder
Source: FY15 OMB Historical Tables, Table 12.1
In B
illi
ons
of
Const
ant
FY09 D
oll
ars
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Infusion of Countercyclical Aid in theAmer. Recovery and Reinvestment Act
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2007 2010 % Change 2010-2007
General Revenue 2,329.4 2,502.10 7.4%Grants from Federal Government
464.6 623.7 34.2%
General Revenue From Own Sources 1,864.7 1,878.3 0.7%
Taxes 1,283.3 1,269.60 -1.1%Property 388.7 441.7 13.6%
Sales & Gross Receipts 440.3 431.2 -2.1%General Sales 300.5 284.9 -5.2%
Individual Income 290.3 260.3 -10.3%Corporate Income 60.6 42.7 -29.5%
Charges and Misc. General Revenue 581.5 608.7 4.7%
Table 1: Impact of Great Recession on State and Local
Source: US Bureau of the Census, Census of Governments, State and Local Finances Summary
Revenues (in Billions), 2007-2010
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Major Federal Aid in the Recovery Act, FY 2009-2010
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Political Implications of the Great Recession
Rising federal deficits and health reform initiative spur a conservative political backlash in 2010
Reinforced by growing partisan polarizationIntergovernmental politics also become
sharply polarized on partisan linesBacklash induces sharp turn toward austerityBudget negotiations will significantly cut
federal discretionary spending, including aid to States
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Party Control of State Legislatures 2011
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From Stimulus to Austerity:The Politics of Polarized federalism
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Sharp Turn Towards Austerity
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Future Federal Aid at Risk: Federal Budget “Sequester”
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Long term trends in U.S. Fiscal FederalismDue to aging population and excess health
care cost growth, entitlements will crowd out discretionary federal spending, including most grants-in-aid
Rising pension costs, declining federal aid, and eroding base of state sales and gasoline taxes place chronic pressure on state-local budgets
Political resolution of these difficult issues will be hampered by continued partisan polarization and by the deinstitutionalization of intergovernmental analytical and collaborative venues
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Mandatory Spending Crowds Out Discretionary Assistance
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Future Federal Aid at Risk: Long term Budget Trends
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Structural Weaknesses in Long term State and Local Finances
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22
State and Local Pension Costs as shares of budgets
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Deinstitutionalization of IGR1980
ACIROMBTreasuryGAOCongressional IGR subcommitteesAcademy for State
and Local Government
2013CBO cost estimationGAOWhither state and local
groups?
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Discussion?
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