paul nunn 5 october 2005

World Bank, October 5, 2005

Tackling TB in the HIV era: implications for policy dialogue and operationsPaul Nunn5 October 2005

" We cant fight AIDS unless we do much more to fight TB as well " Nelson MandelaBangkok, July 2004

ContentsCurrent status of TB and HIV epidemics, focus on AfricaThe policy responseProgress and operational issuesPolitical and partnership commitmentsConclusions

Current status of TB and HIV epidemics, focus on Africa

TB incidence rate 19902005Stop TB Department

Current Global Status8.8 million new cases of TB in 2003 7.6% of total cases HIV+ (674 000) = 12% of adult cases TB notifications and estimated incidence stable or decreasing in 5 WHO regions, increasing in Africa, due to HIVGlobal estimated incidence grew 1%Global prevalence and mortality rates falling

Epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa 19852003 Millions% HIVprevalence adult (15-49)Number of people living with HIV and AIDS% HIV prevalence, adult (15-49)YearSource: UNAIDS/WHO, 20042004 Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic (Fig 5)

Nairobi

Chart3

0.00157891610.0580.02048851670.020488516734.786907481470.498680183

0.00194558450.09576822920.01364790380.013647903864.398263020269.7563212631

0.00215947670.13388748020.01878812910.018788129160.920524760569.031113035

0.00239668370.16574817220.02077303740.020773037468.845601288568.3225580779

0.00265969960.15140377360.0193004320.01930043275.647191163967.6301763168

0.00295127410.15700990920.0204907930.02049079379.359829310666.9535043362

0.00327443580.16158982770.02066281550.020662815583.24229140866.2920947233

0.0036325176199700110.501729288965.6455154389

0.0040291827199800167.150663786165.0133492157

0.0044684530.16594370860.0209797680.020979768184.699325553864.3951929813

0.00495473712000226.927314045363.7906573065

0.00549286082001307.471943099463.1993658758

0.0060880963412.414063560962.6209549817

0.0067461924434.749604595862.055073039

0.0074734032517.484161933261.5013801203

0.0082765148576.410661733560.9595475104

0.0091628693592.552683206460.4292572804

0.010140383359.9102018778

0.01121756159.402083736

0.012403497358.9046148975

0.013707870458.417516655

0.015140919257.940519206

0.016713402557.4733613218

0.018436535757.0157900307

0.020321900256.5675603135

0.022381321256.128434812

0.02462670757.9623680083

0.027069846658.6894651022

0.029722158759.4674461125

0.032594388860.3048744745

0.035696252161.2113918238

0.039036019662.1976093507

0.042620052163.2750485833

0.046452285964.5827645322

0.050533683766.0633562295

0.054861667367.7297878371

0.059429555669.596572523

0.064226040471.6798382295

0.06923473973.9973877465

0.074433865376.5687515259

0.079796068779.4223268077

0.085288486982.5838921635

0.090873054686.0808005386

0.096507097289.9420180294

0.102144224594.1981291566

0.107735512898.8812995348

0.1132309403104.0251855185

0.1185810083109.665177949

0.123738459115.8378956721

0.1286599779122.5808388679

0.1333077617129.9319381347

0.1376508337137.9289823708

0.1416660109146.6089084974

0.1453384494156.0069371407

0.1486617409166.1555634986

0.1516375691177.0833552098

0.1542749749188.8135705731

0.1565893138201.3626053368

0.1586010044214.7382894208

0.1603341766228.9380716632

0.1618153228243.9471509158

0.1630720377259.7366362598

0.1641319126276.261841614

0.1650216267293.4608453129

0.1657662506311.2534661283

0.1663887622329.5408206486

0.1669097556348.2056282693

0.1673473176367.1134145304

0.1677170371386.1147271374

0.1680321163405.0484192419

0.1683035514423.7459723472

0.1685403552442.0367313203

0.1687498002459.7538158669

0.1689376645476.7403701663

0.1691084673492.855731529

0.1692656872507.9810562685

0.1694119582522.0239491795

0.1695492394534.9217077615

0.1696789616546.6429097226

0.1698021488557.1872284864

0.1699195187566.5835344928

0.170031563574.8865043012

0.1701386122582.1720906263

0.1702408851588.5322867841

0.1703385269594.0696408896

0.170431638598.8919415638

0.1705202945603.1074199566

0.1706045631606.8207100117

0.1706845107610.1296986987

0.1707602112613.1232963929

0.1708317488615.8800757451

0.1708992197618.4676705456

0.1709627324620.9427944576

0.171022407623.3517296224

0.171078374625.7311416301

0.1711307725628.1090943911

0.1711797485630.5061608404

0.171225453632.9365491428

0.1712680403635.4091864318

0.1713076661637.9287215613

0.1713444865640.4964242293

0.1713786561

0.1714103271

0.1714396484

0.1714667647

0.171491816

0.1715149368

0.1715362563

0.1715558975

0.1715739774

0.1715906071

0.1716058914

0.1716199293

0.1716328135

0.1716446313

0.1716554644

0.1716653891

0.1716744764

0.1716827926

0.1716903993

0.1716973537

0.1717037087

0.1717095135

0.1717148135

0.1717196506

0.1717240635

0.1717280879

0.1717317568

0.1717351003

0.1717381464

0.1717409206

0.1717434463

0.1717457453

0.1717478372

0.1717497403

0.171751471

0.1717530445

0.1717544749

0.1717557749

0.171756956

0.1717580288

0.1717590032

0.1717598879

0.1717606911

0.1717614201

0.1717620816

0.1717626818

0.1717632263

0.1717637202

0.171764168

0.171764574

0.1717649421

0.1717652758

0.1717655782

0.1717658522

0.1717661005

0.1717663254

0.1717665291

0.1717667136

0.1717668807

0.1717668807

Model

TB notification/100k

HIV prevalence

Variance

384

alpha1.1588537147TBHIV

beta3Approx. rel. Var2.0170.027

a0.5662832687Average235.15113.617

b16.2471280396

t01990.6128485343

DataLogistics

Error SquaredTBHIVYearExcel logisticTB LogisticHIV Logistic

0.50.50201993114.044741319601980

10.60.50201993130.533016206401981

20.50.60201993114.044741319601982

30.50.50.1201993113.074322713301983

40.50.5020.11993112.678786865701984

50.50.50201995395.20991394534.7919850.025119.9682

60.520.520.0220.021993116.617653082164.4019860.079826.4178

70.540.540.0420.04199130.527560015260.9219870.251734.8672

80.560.560.0620.061989146.194324523168.8519880.776445.8757

90.5080.5280.02820.0281992.679.581064875775.6519892.246560.1157

100.4160.5560.05620.0561992.250.116534939979.365.800019905.515378.36605.5153

110.49120.53920.039220.03921992.4466.640201912583.249.576819919.9983101.48039.9983

120.48240.57840.078420.07841991.8837.949033205110.5013.3887199213.5421130.318913.5421

130.487680.534880.0548820.054881992.21652.939666166167.1516.5748199315.2862165.633715.2862

140.475360.469760.1097620.109761991.43227.9475310749184.7015.1404199415.9327207.902915.9327

150.463040.404640.1646420.164641990.64834.834145929226.9315.7010199516.1471257.135416.1471

160.4827520.5288320.05683220.0768321991.902438.821731529307.4716.1590199616.2156312.690116.2156

170.4655040.5576640.01366420.1536641990.804830.9228329468412.410.0000199716.2372373.181613.4786

180.47585280.54036480.059564820.08756481991.4633628.2374924282434.750.0000199816.2440436.542514.1971

190.45170560.58072960.119129620.07512961989.9267257.7647890957517.4816.5944199916.2462500.268916.2462

200.46377920.56054720.089347220.08134721990.6950432.0289641326576.410.0000200016.2468561.799114.6941

210.485408640.541274240.0662342420.092634241991.16236827.1887929787592.550.0000200116.2470618.911314.7637

220.554817280.526548480.0764684820.129268481990.12473666.569073011

230.450704320.548637120.0611171220.074317121991.68118431.7135428851

240.4790695040.5353216640.06277766420.0918176641991.122604827.0848172184

250.4757390080.4922433280.04715532820.1052353281990.365209643.3156204419

260.4807347520.5568608320.07058883220.0851088321991.501302428.828345655

270.48246061440.53458439040.059025990420.09256999041991.2838572827.0761350854

280.50114202880.50862158080.028704780820.10379278081991.8726745638.5030056483

290.47311990720.54756579520.074186595220.08695859521990.9894486427.7870597106

300.48694373180.53437012540.061639885420.09509828541991.14551020827.3381780444

310.52318314370.52010313090.062162650920.11587945091990.60983641640.0567586127

320.46882402590.54150362270.061378502720.08470770271991.41334710427.4991527258

330.4876077370.531138050.07118278620.0813070261991.267219628827.1011792053

340.5097114740.50461210.12870157220.0089500521991.729639257633.9269879745

350.47655586850.5444010250.04242339320.1174855131991.036009814427.8517905971

360.47491891070.5320182550.071667464620.09680412861991.274421591726.8429494484

370.40983782150.524036510.103334929220.15360825721991.548843183428.9910114694

380.44237836610.52802738250.087501196920.12520619291991.411632387527.1907872519

390.46724763350.52625156510.075049937620.10482360081991.256487589226.6367065021

400.45376051510.49564229820.079511043120.12453836951991.011672778427.1782915662

410.44027339660.46503303120.083972148720.14425313831990.766857967629.9967983088

420.46292773660.53142802470.069000146220.10777927471991.172422144926.510124538

430.45049547310.59309604940.028240292420.10579854931990.912844289727.7686856579

440.45771565750.54116702960.066163526120.10544188191991.147789039926.3707765981

450.43887544650.53793303420.089903659120.09339825091991.259568265425.9141795104

460.42003523540.53469903880.113643792220.08135461981991.37134749126.4532855323

470.44709872310.53859367830.074054965420.10432108681991.224168810126.0524226758

480.42107753910.52962156140.073923335720.12168357851991.458888980227.6135555036

490.44121513630.52589878070.083191574120.10749809271991.333377748226.430705242

500.43193479950.4587015120.138142855920.1091976361991.753911206733.1866316854

510.44585530470.55949741510.055715933220.1066483211991.12311101926.0868657429

520.44617068940.53187395140.079550093620.10449104121991.26622215626.1453876481

530.47126383980.53412634150.085176851620.08729850391991.073555331727.007254629

540.44665865220.53039849520.084309763420.10500920141991.198263801526.016100695

550.42449327850.51929336770.107241024120.12531070011990.98318049926.3541147829

560.44308163470.52865169220.088257728820.10503010291991.112573423826.0318661823

570.44378490340.5292760020.089014260820.08485401281990.813514460128.6020822454

580.44273000040.52833953730.087879462920.11511814791991.262102905726.1304865643

590.44087553180.53519114010.089931412820.10314605851991.162659449325.8669814177

600.42799054850.5747399820.100351782420.08175374751991.313646120226.0135774203

610.41510556520.61428882390.110772152120.06036143651991.46463279127.5520507905

620.43222087350.54331386820.09296639920.10203710731991.21067760725.7194291544

630.39317790720.55250139490.100755946420.11677571061991.347799882226.5259799233

640.41269939040.54790763150.096861172720.1094064091991.279238744625.8531460539

650.43075370450.54595558670.08960987520.10764746511991.192255857725.704089719

660.44147217360.55721213460.065575957920.13394031041991.013164224426.7694022578

670.425394470.54032731280.101626833620.09450104241991.281801674325.8566856263

680.43093394280.55016237570.08848703720.10148553361991.251980092725.8199191668

690.4373746070.58103138380.069733049920.0776603671991.520779686528.4492027831

700.42771361070.53472787170.097864030520.11339811681991.117580295925.7125185106

710.42793066480.55144004260.090483950520.10114152741991.223075570825.6821171829

720.41313132930.57454054790.093088438120.08716490681991.184048235925.3593565615

730.39833199370.59764105310.095692925820.07318828631991.14502090125.166002245

740.41842600260.55906877020.09847934920.09444952041991.227457547225.5596454306

750.39099670060.55864012540.141242764820.08225071981991.331804075426.2998391073

760.43214065370.55928309260.077097641120.10054892071991.175284283125.6669506069

770.41925602370.55597739230.093828520720.09820855511991.199785179825.5056352733

780.41052149890.53721480270.08730525920.11466336261991.085924239425.4747410408

790.41628142950.55535489030.090964205820.10224101911991.160609692825.4345210966

800.40716838890.57038246790.08030157820.10998099571991.039417711225.5055384762

810.41517522920.55984985760.087652286920.10235593641991.112645486125.4204915151

820.4176510680.57179208370.078443401120.09530546391990.946052227726.1157297473

830.41393730980.55387874460.092256729820.10588117271991.195942115325.4949271694

840.4124199690.56368003220.086530826720.10085254761991.1283178525.3699495838

850.39712632730.59263219270.07519762320.08830697841991.139055404225.2328664291

860.40541710370.57034985220.086150823120.09840415911991.121072074225.2919070445

870.37869355380.58141661180.095204005120.09625939761991.066859865425.2547890635

880.39972213670.5725566810.089131308520.09565983951991.12656050525.2517647728

890.39227588440.5747308940.09796103920.08133868331991.213703298925.4720697124

900.39538985160.57672711090.090272170420.09075134161991.130112741825.2267141688

910.37684239350.59957547710.08828761120.07562151061991.064283368225.181374056

920.38865403050.58919924570.090468640820.08294297121991.125784567525.2055863586

930.36678656220.64118368880.093632022520.05122257991991.165644895625.6327992865

940.39958776470.56320702420.088886949920.09880316691991.105854403425.2568035305

950.39011640660.58689447180.088653822920.08643586791991.104214788425.183278505

960.38795692880.59905804960.079346606920.09153305261990.99472627825.3072488623

970.38903666770.59297626070.084000214920.08898446031991.049470533225.1948349136

980.38800618720.59284831910.087676475920.08447212661991.092938014425.1705078192

990.37642460970.62248961390.08646600220.07014108631991.080021625325.1853993101

1000.38755239840.60106291950.085928875320.07924846441991.095570366425.1509891339

1010.3964112430.62070922720.076653745520.06223753121991.124280867425.0845266299

1020.40527008760.6403555350.067378615820.0452265981991.152991368425.0565738345

1030.38918115040.6106075880.084365073920.07063238831991.098357559225.1080314077

1040.38123597350.62858298320.093532524820.05295779821991.057659714325.0428550175

1050.37329079660.64655837850.102699975720.03528320811991.016961869325.0353715139

1060.38603197620.62132401150.08810502620.05989213791991.091855826425.0691650408

1070.38302728470.64967176240.092209837220.03079981551991.134241119725.0914183747

1080.38735251120.62676044120.089253793120.05202388371991.102699725325.0421226128

1090.39828041280.63103126860.092041584220.03390668111991.125377825324.9458118597

1100.40920831430.63530209590.094829375320.01578947841991.148055925324.8937830695

1110.39382569540.6339057650.090562145920.04005747731991.119454236724.9807427689

1120.41080899730.66823605280.092836680920.0044934441991.174625105324.9160606301

1130.39632109610.64802476490.08999089720.02631850881991.125375077624.9207321447

1140.39431019850.69840847680.084288868219.97944873131991.105729254224.6939957281

1150.39229930090.74879218860.078586839419.93257895381991.086083430724.4851524609

1160.39817549940.66784885020.087266297420.00667433651991.115743539824.806017972

1170.4133237140.68602593790.082322757619.98254885751991.097245959924.6642450286

1180.39978622460.67698293070.090255125819.99413878841991.104594458124.7220945397

1190.39430236170.71361032650.113131635819.94305097871991.056197547924.4577759862

1200.38881849880.75023772220.136008145819.89196316911991.007800637624.2607284251

1210.40289176510.69771879950.096916759819.96547478051991.102762211824.5732239587

1220.43249273350.74887922040.091133543919.8956663531991.188562554224.4666442196

1230.40722851230.7138474330.096576132419.94370936231991.105549701624.4613881507

1240.40364802730.75945881320.100315583919.88292528071991.036474297824.1082722526

1250.40006754230.80507019340.104055035319.8221411991990.967398894123.8491614481

1260.40540035790.74780105250.098421264419.90497970651991.069418295324.2311141936

1270.40159240140.86030000910.102013153519.79416993451990.990780665423.6905787543

1280.3977844450.97279896580.105605042619.68336016251990.912143035423.2618599525

1290.40229250410.80515565810.103077721419.84514196751991.032397710423.9353779271

1300.39126129420.92428537820.123832685219.70773507751990.967549460923.480456244

1310.40208490280.8402542960.112126890619.80017319221991.008690916523.7190370897

1320.41187050460.93171640350.145666941819.66776743071990.931298402223.044245957

1330.42165610641.02317851090.179206992919.53536166911990.853905887922.4633468463

1340.39991757730.89511415410.129741580419.72811225541990.941759583223.4262716171

1350.36734242111.04134908780.168349616919.56055815791990.694956612223.8579435892

1360.39562236180.95333642720.136209874619.66183125321990.879190778123.2511082884

1370.40242622481.15643513220.136411603419.43169933741990.750580918622.3894043154

1380.40923008791.35953383710.136613332219.20156742151990.62197105921.6814986347

1390.40399989511.01697337710.129862617719.59003310591990.864593667522.8281786332

1400.44065736920.99259766640.091375618419.61950805391991.034230722822.6184462702

1410.41211786051.05447887170.127326734319.54950647691990.877960033222.5110215951

1420.42416817881.303887550.150598433219.27687175481990.788521172321.2153623665

1430.43621849711.55329622830.173870132219.00423703261990.699082311419.982739198

1440.42110930111.18028104170.137334223719.40880686791990.824266603321.8165924484

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3731.160330565130.566463982816.24516887841990.6136618372.8940007648

3741.159507819330.566445336116.24598546481990.61350263532.8939623169

3751.15891315330.566466262116.2472400691990.61346123272.8939547049

3761.159458885230.566685050816.2506847631990.61400882542.8940785618

3771.15864028730.566356867716.24551772211990.61318743642.8939539045

3781.15890172330.566448290516.2468419051990.61328538062.893947479

3791.159106008730.566449855716.24617526781990.61250406422.8939498837

3801.159310294330.566451420916.24550863061990.61172274782.8940002527

3811.158976798530.566531192716.24653217841990.61330847462.8939442077

3821.159222966330.567027040716.2453404561990.61422835512.8940058855

3831.158853714730.566283268716.24712803961990.61284853432.8939543331

3840.8150394030014.80092872131994.1704272682.7260888779

3850.80625105040014.7335688351994.127074858782.7900349701

3860.81943357930014.83460866451994.192103460682.7231144156

3870.81582574240014.81060158851994.178248082882.7231470047

3880.81614960240014.83495884831994.203496819282.731025696

3890.81680594240014.82099962961994.183456994182.7220845044

3900.82236328260014.85903061671994.189461725482.7317835067

3910.82123632710014.82154299391994.185852446382.7221311261

3920.8422612950014.78677219241994.194220428482.7408076322

3930.81072384320014.83892839461994.181668455382.7246806578

3940.81890843920014.81752254951994.184293792382.7219180988

3950.81545359580014.77601448231994.179125859282.7346837413

3960.82063586090014.83827658311994.186877758982.72402656

3970.81980569090014.81818609641994.180969980282.7223006726

3980.82346177940014.80141334461994.158443141282.7406080582

3990.81797764670014.82657247241994.192233399782.7232825073

4000.81884271050014.82552167111994.185387333182.7219787332

4010.81489287220014.86114874341994.200628030882.7298609658

4020.82081762970014.8077081351994.177766984282.7231717855

4030.8179177120014.82921884991994.186130011882.7221446434

4040.81039280150014.86921545871994.198206432582.732150295

4050.82168016720014.80922054551994.180091801482.7227906931

4060.82010897680014.82327728011994.18581468182.7219937628

4070.82949411030014.80762616561994.189960906682.7257472682

4080.815416410014.83110283741994.183741568182.7225206789

4090.81906508660014.8218425311994.185187442882.7218804813

4100.81749431220014.80540847881994.183497126882.7236100505

4110.81827969940014.81362550491994.184342284882.7222604414

4120.81912549710014.81925313751994.183609219882.7218992418

4130.82027334750014.81193380261994.174985039982.724161977

4140.81855157190014.82291280491994.187921309882.7221349197

4150.81867228550014.82229407141994.185640084982.7218994246

4160.81652694140014.83688000791994.193513185682.724025536

4170.81974495760014.81500110321994.181703534682.7221101774

4180.81873456120014.81837255921994.183560099782.7219064825

4190.81803554310014.80213645391994.175016738982.7240380127

4200.81908407030014.82649061181994.187831780282.72209213

4210.81821534180014.82182657241994.185108095582.7219106627

4220.81475051640014.83443259941994.190124389682.7235910722

4230.81994775450014.8155235591994.182599948482.7220303308

4240.81912161070014.81871071681994.184879771682.7218906726

4250.82282681150014.80631859621994.18601797582.7228388432

4260.81726901030014.82490677711994.184310669882.7220085437

4270.81891947290014.82096697121994.184873448682.7218733343

4280.81955924650014.82830843751994.185404612382.7222770008

4290.81859958610014.8172962381994.184607866782.7219680168

4300.81892907580014.81984365781994.184210759982.7218772092

4310.81930657960014.81677451081994.180500210182.722264106

4320.81874032380014.82137823141994.186066034982.721925461

4330.8187281490014.82111908351994.1850832682.721880992

4340.81771134040014.82723706371994.188462985482.7223013635

4350.81923655330014.81806009331994.183393397382.7219143373

4360.81875864560014.81943297981994.184195583482.7218834992

4370.8184332210014.81237534771994.180559386782.7222936616

4380.81892135790014.82296179581994.186013681882.7219103969

4390.81855336630014.82092062711994.184878330182.7218858765

4400.81715897810014.82631769531994.187156711882.7222123529

4410.81925056040014.81822209311994.183739139382.7218992068

4420.81894967630014.81958369031994.18476402482.7218791533

4430.82063034230014.81426060361994.185217378182.7220492607

4440.81810934330014.82224523371994.184537346982.721906413

4450.81885162780014.82057348951994.1847499282.7218739416

4460.81910366940014.82385074091994.184891973482.7219400392

4470.81897764860014.82221211521994.184820946782.7218869701

4480.81889909270014.82074026621994.184500902482.7218740186

4490.81905786160014.82010230111994.182935769982.72195591

4500.81881970830014.82105924881994.185283468682.7218830713

4510.81881572370014.82134009731994.184878916782.721875741

4520.81839489410014.82462010131994.18636443682.7219661471

4530.81902613850014.81970009531994.18413615782.7218789075

4540.81883667980014.82068775721994.184503411782.7218742419

4550.81875200170014.81841371861994.182993141682.7219278945

4560.81887901890014.82182477651994.185258546782.7218810882

4570.81899061490014.82060366581994.184647651782.7218722785

4580.81987188650014.81896209781994.184757956482.7218977539

459

Variance

5.515322398734.786907481419.96824080385.8

9.998320797664.398263020226.41784329919.5768229167

13.542149621960.920524760534.867237639913.388748019

15.286208981568.845601288545.875671859816.5748172218

15.932671934175.647191163960.115698504815.1403773585

16.147103226779.359829310678.366049028615.7009909166

16.215602217883.242291408101.480308592316.1589827728

13.4785687443110.5017292889130.31892475350

14.1970613068167.1506637861165.63367814760

16.2461516273184.6993255538207.902885169616.5943708609

14.6940705352226.9273140453257.1354278430

14.7636882106307.4719430994312.69012898560

412.4140635609373.1815782635

434.7496045958436.5424585364

517.4841619332500.2688557421

576.4106617335561.7991271256

592.5526832064618.9112980716

HIVLogisticCalc

TB Data

TBLogisticCalc

HIV Data

Year

TB Inc per 100k

HIV Prev per 100

Logistic Fits

HIV parameters

NairobiNote on fitting

Runs100

HIV Prevalence Parameters

ValuesFitHIV Prevalence100%150%50%

FittedInitialStepMinMaxError squared3017.2014563161ModelData0.50252715930.21386661140.4394076935Alpha

alpha0.42010.42180.10000.37970.4640Log Likelihood-125.2010507385YearPrevYearPrevLowHigh1990.85105539711994.47411461091994.045810828T0

beta0.48090.47560.10000.42810.523219800.00157919900.0580.0200.020000.3529639605a

a0.21070.20840.10000.18760.2292NelderMead Parameters1980.250.00194619910.0960.0140.014000.29Beta

b0.17180.17000.10000.15300.1870MaxnumNMIrns5001980.50.00215919920.1340.0190.0190.13713691030.20570536550.0685684552b

t01993.0541993.0480.50001992.0001994.000tolerance0.11980.750.00239719930.1660.0210.021

Variance14.505114.47480.100013.027315.922319810.00266019940.1510.0190.019

Warm up cure rate0.10460.10000.10000.09000.11001981.250.00295119950.1570.0200.020

Number of years before model starts that cure rate is changed to model value93.568792.46312.000083.2168101.70941981.50.00327419960.1620.0210.021

Initial force of infection0.03140.03180.01000.02860.03501981.750.0036331997

Start date198019820.0040291998

1982.250.00446819990.1660.0210.021

1982.50.0049552000

1982.750.0054932001

19830.006088

1983.250.006746

1983.50.007473

1983.750.008277

19840.009163

1984.250.010140

1984.50.011218

1984.750.012403

19850.013708

1985.250.015141

1985.50.016713

1985.750.018437

19860.020322

1986.250.022381

1986.50.024627

1986.750.027070

19870.029722

1987.250.032594

1987.50.035696

1987.750.039036

19880.042620

1988.250.046452

1988.50.050534

0.24MINIMUM OBTAINED1988.750.054862

24919890.059430

241989.250.064226

0.241989.50.069235

3.61989.750.074434

19900.079796

1990.250.085288

01990.50.090873

1990.750.096507

19910.102144

1991.250.107736

1991.50.113231

1991.750.118581

19920.123738

1992.250.128660

1992.50.133308

1992.750.137651

19930.141666

1993.250.145338

1993.50.148662

1993.750.151638

19940.154275

1994.250.156589

1994.50.158601

1994.750.160334

19950.161815

1995.250.163072

1995.50.164132

1995.750.165022

19960.165766

1996.250.166389

1996.50.166910

1996.750.167347

19970.167717

1997.250.168032

1997.50.168304

1997.750.168540

19980.168750

1998.250.168938

1998.50.169108

1998.750.169266

19990.169412

1999.250.169549

1999.50.169679

1999.750.169802

20000.169920

2000.250.170032

2000.50.170139

2000.750.170241

20010.170339

2001.250.170432

2001.50.170520

2001.750.170605

20020.170685

2002.250.170760

2002.50.170832

2002.750.170899

20030.170963

2003.250.171022

2003.50.171078

2003.750.171131

20040.171180

2004.250.171225

2004.50.171268

2004.750.171308

20050.171344

2005.250.171379

2005.50.171410

2005.750.171440

20060.171467

2006.250.171492

2006.50.171515

2006.750.171536

20070.171556

2007.250.171574

2007.50.171591

2007.750.171606

20080.171620

2008.250.171633

2008.50.171645

2008.750.171655

20090.171665

2009.250.171674

2009.50.171683

2009.750.171690

20100.171697

2010.250.171704

2010.50.171710

2010.750.171715

20110.171720

2011.250.171724

2011.50.171728

2011.750.171732

20120.171735

2012.250.171738

2012.50.171741

2012.750.171743

20130.171746

2013.250.171748

2013.50.171750

2013.750.171751

20140.171753

2014.250.171754

2014.50.171756

2014.750.171757

20150.171758

2015.250.171759

2015.50.171760

2015.750.171761

20160.171761

2016.250.171762

2016.50.171763

2016.750.171763

20170.171764

2017.250.171764

2017.50.171765

2017.750.171765

20180.171765

2018.250.171766

2018.50.171766

2018.750.171766

20190.171766

2019.250.171767

2019.50.171767

2019.750.171767

20200.171767

HIV parameters

000.02048851670.020488516734.786907481470.498680183

000.01364790380.013647903864.398263020269.7563212631

000.01878812910.018788129160.920524760569.031113035

000.02077303740.020773037468.845601288568.3225580779

000.0193004320.01930043275.647191163967.6301763168

000.0204907930.02049079379.359829310666.9535043362

000.02066281550.020662815583.24229140866.2920947233

0000110.501729288965.6455154389

0000167.150663786165.0133492157

000.0209797680.020979768184.699325553864.3951929813

00226.927314045363.7906573065

00307.471943099463.1993658758

0412.414063560962.6209549817

0434.749604595862.055073039

0517.484161933261.5013801203

0576.410661733560.9595475104

0592.552683206460.4292572804

059.9102018778

059.402083736

058.9046148975

058.417516655

057.940519206

057.4733613218

057.0157900307

056.5675603135

056.128434812

057.9623680083

058.6894651022

059.4674461125

060.3048744745

061.2113918238

062.1976093507

063.2750485833

064.5827645322

066.0633562295

067.7297878371

069.596572523

071.6798382295

073.9973877465

076.5687515259

079.4223268077

082.5838921635

086.0808005386

089.9420180294

094.1981291566

098.8812995348

0104.0251855185

0109.665177949

0115.8378956721

0122.5808388679

0129.9319381347

0137.9289823708

0146.6089084974

0156.0069371407

0166.1555634986

0177.0833552098

0188.8135705731

0201.3626053368

0214.7382894208

0228.9380716632

0243.9471509158

0259.7366362598

0276.261841614

0293.4608453129

0311.2534661283

0329.5408206486

0348.2056282693

0367.1134145304

0386.1147271374

0405.0484192419

0423.7459723472

0442.0367313203

0459.7538158669

0476.7403701663

0492.855731529

0507.9810562685

0522.0239491795

0534.9217077615

0546.6429097226

0557.1872284864

0566.5835344928

0574.8865043012

0582.1720906263

0588.5322867841

0594.0696408896

0598.8919415638

0603.1074199566

0606.8207100117

0610.1296986987

0613.1232963929

0615.8800757451

0618.4676705456

0620.9427944576

0623.3517296224

0625.7311416301

0628.1090943911

0630.5061608404

0632.9365491428

0635.4091864318

0637.9287215613

0640.4964242293

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Model

TB notification

HIV prevalence

Fit output

70.4986801831980

69.75632126311981

69.0311130351982

68.32255807791983

67.63017631681984

66.953504336234.7869074814

66.292094723364.3982630202

65.645515438960.9205247605

65.013349215768.8456012885

64.395192981375.6471911639

63.790657306579.3598293106

63.199365875883.242291408

62.6209549817110.5017292889

62.055073039167.1506637861

61.5013801203184.6993255538

60.9595475104226.9273140453

60.4292572804307.4719430994

59.9102018778412.4140635609

59.402083736434.7496045958

58.9046148975517.4841619332

58.417516655576.4106617335

57.940519206592.5526832064

57.4733613218

57.0157900307

56.5675603135

56.128434812

57.9623680083

58.6894651022

59.4674461125

60.3048744745

61.2113918238

62.1976093507

63.2750485833

64.5827645322

66.0633562295

67.7297878371

69.596572523

71.6798382295

73.9973877465

76.5687515259

79.4223268077

82.5838921635

86.0808005386

89.9420180294

94.1981291566

98.8812995348

104.0251855185

109.665177949

115.8378956721

122.5808388679

129.9319381347

137.9289823708

146.6089084974

156.0069371407

166.1555634986

177.0833552098

188.8135705731

201.3626053368

214.7382894208

228.9380716632

243.9471509158

259.7366362598

276.261841614

293.4608453129

311.2534661283

329.5408206486

348.2056282693

367.1134145304

386.1147271374

405.0484192419

423.7459723472

442.0367313203

459.7538158669

476.7403701663

492.855731529

507.9810562685

522.0239491795

534.9217077615

546.6429097226

557.1872284864

566.5835344928

574.8865043012

582.1720906263

588.5322867841

594.0696408896

598.8919415638

603.1074199566

606.8207100117

610.1296986987

613.1232963929

615.8800757451

618.4676705456

620.9427944576

623.3517296224

625.7311416301

628.1090943911

630.5061608404

632.9365491428

635.4091864318

637.9287215613

640.4964242293

643.1109701062

645.7691105795

648.4662319045

651.1968124604

653.9547889817

656.7338435097

659.5276227902

662.3299012246

665.1346975158

667.9363539972

670.7295864334

673.5095109049

676.2716532936

679.0119458985

681.7267148448

684.412661199

687.0668380763

689.686625494

692.2697043001

694.8140301489

697.3178082229

699.7794691736

702.1976465879

704.5711561518

706.8989765864

709.1802323604

711.4141781287

713.6001848159

715.7377272364

717.8263731338

719.8657735148

721.8556541511

723.7958081284

725.6860893261

727.5264067178

729.3167193927

731.0570322056

732.7473919732

734.3878841402

735.9786298519

737.5197833727

739.0115297995

740.4540830263

741.8476839207

743.1925986786

744.489117329

745.7375523643

746.938237476

748.091526378

749.1977917026

Model

Data

TB Incidence/100K

Parameters

Kisii

100iterations

n

17

HIV parameter fit results

Iterationalphabetaabt0varianceWarm up cue rateNumber of years before model starts that cure rate is changed to model valueInitial force of Infectionlog Likelihood

10.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-127.459438654

20.52184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-388.2001010086

30.42184482720.57562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-146.550619781

40.42184482720.47562560850.30839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-1141.2822786396

50.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.271993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-5346.784751632

60.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.547844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-264.8843650049

70.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.57480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-127.0578017158

80.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.292.46311549810.0318155534-1634.7648831314

90.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.194.46311549810.0318155534-126.5653969462

100.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0418155534-2117.3521437973

110.43295593830.48673671960.21950729370.171993.103399823614.48591119020.10592.68533772030.0329266645-194.024332434

120.44406704950.49784783070.22437154730.16151993.158955379214.49702230130.107592.90755994260.0340377756-200.1819678536

130.43542507410.48920585540.22197642950.15888888891993.115745502614.4883803260.1087592.73472043640.0320624669-135.3459478774

140.44900532110.50278610230.22560611520.15594444441993.183646737214.50196057290.10937593.00632537470.0303482325-276.3290427824

150.43844290680.4922236880.22499426220.15641975311993.130834665914.49139815860.105486968492.79507708930.0310062255-199.8730894409

160.45504098640.50882176760.22711503150.15470987651993.213825063714.50799623820.097743484293.12703868060.0301968977-431.4135149869

170.44213136890.49591215010.21757161320.15340192041993.149276976514.49508662080.095595183792.86884633180.0308263749-401.5013014599

180.46241791060.51619869180.20256408880.15320096021993.250709684914.51537316240.091190367393.27457716550.0298371964-976.3166792353

190.45227463980.5060554210.19506032660.15310048011993.199993330714.50522989160.093392775593.07171174870.0303317856-859.2124511195

200.44213136890.49591215010.21757161320.15340192041993.149276976514.49508662080.095595183792.86884633180.0308263749-401.5013014599

210.43198809810.48576887930.2234037070.16170096021993.098560622314.48494334990.097797591892.6659809150.0313209641-156.0084466652

220.43956993690.49335071810.21994845280.15549763761993.136469816314.49252518870.105242256492.81761769120.0309512711-248.5902228613

230.42409888740.47787966860.19830456380.16815576891993.05911456914.47705413930.107621128292.50819670190.0317056446-136.5474631396

240.42870927690.49360116920.21882716180.1552927231993.13772207214.49277563990.108810564192.82262671380.0309390591-228.2723702588

250.40418481070.511576730.22403148130.15414636151993.227599875914.51075120060.109405282193.18213792960.0300625648-329.9338517386

260.38214150170.50258894960.22404265140.15357318071993.18266097414.50176342020.10970264193.00238232170.0305008119-317.5485253028

270.42870927690.49360116920.21882716180.1552927231993.13772207214.49277563990.109851320592.82262671380.0309390591-222.564777782

280.44636929340.48461338880.21361167220.16264636151993.0927831714.48378785950.108149493592.6428711060.0313773062-160.6779694749

290.43162835810.49158197890.2163888280.15694478791993.127626120114.49075644950.109074746892.78224290620.0319466064-159.5465963674

300.41425139520.48037785540.19722097950.16611179791993.07160550314.4795523260.101212813692.55816043780.0334718575-139.9869085139

310.43078464350.49211000630.21514713870.15651276541993.074710701714.49128447690.105606406892.79280345510.0330319707-140.3542404445

320.43972445970.50859440410.22189809490.15475638271992.601577135414.50776887480.107803203493.1224914120.034248388-424.6970258903

330.42631473530.48386780740.21177166070.16325638271993.311277484914.4830422780.107160705492.62795947660.032423762-160.1121848064

340.42881216410.49055667040.21305305610.16687458571993.091635380214.4897311410.108580352792.76173673660.0328526358-158.1136120584

350.41355727880.48326551010.19548770730.17693729281993.024315381114.48243998070.103073595692.61591353070.0316674961-130.4468297228

360.42195441150.49040690610.21103928220.17810823121993.084027848114.48958137670.106536797892.75874145050.0328848792-272.1233923963

370.4008073780.49620042330.20846689220.18255411561993.075272526114.49537489390.108268398992.8746117950.0343924521-667.2222439806

380.44861573180.48751014750.21232547720.17037729641993.08840550914.48668461810.109134199592.70080627820.0321310927-160.5524877055

390.42195441150.49040690610.21103928220.17810823121993.084027848114.48958137670.109567099792.75874145050.0328848792-298.6841962129

400.39529309130.49330366470.20975308720.18583916611993.079650187114.49247813530.109783549992.81667662270.0336386656-666.5945630575

410.43528507170.48895852680.21168237970.17424276381993.086216678614.48813299740.109891774992.72977386440.0325079859-205.5769125859

420.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.193.46311549810.0318155534-126.1250388433

430.43523027950.4815678780.21036082990.17018864821993.068124888614.48074234860.105058353593.58196088820.031973323-132.3800277534

440.42184482720.50237802360.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.193.46311549810.0318155534-128.1363165303

450.42691646270.48069724390.21881599170.16585048011993.073202445214.47987171450.098898795993.56454820650.0315682587-133.2955428094

460.4177010530.47944555930.2019419450.17642524011993.036079824614.47862002990.101536797893.53951451440.0317415247-129.0864136551

470.42407978130.47974670790.21008392160.16662819131993.179560876514.47892117850.103580352793.54553748740.0321196577-139.9181193271

480.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.52480007910.193.46311549810.0318155534-125.9280485384

490.42297185730.47675263850.20335037320.16907788451993.053479418514.47592710920.10593.48565610.031760599-128.6585182895

500.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.194.46311549810.0318155534-126.5653969462

510.41804811120.47800173190.20280858110.1680558991993.059724885514.47717620260.100606406893.51063796790.033406331-141.4500887194

520.42380874920.48341249570.21055687120.17429108781993.066869391714.48258696630.106536620993.61885324320.0318250641-142.148346101

530.42956938720.48882325950.21830516130.18052627661993.074013897914.48799773010.108268310493.72706851850.030229531-140.0502637016

540.42668906820.48611787760.21443101620.17740868221993.070441644814.48529234820.109501727993.67296088080.0293877497-138.0673762071

550.424098670.48412040350.21103988170.17548892011993.054745032714.48329487410.107194551593.6330113980.0315215187-141.8297279431

560.42411755860.4884940990.21199584170.18434964881992.929929188814.48766856960.108597275793.72048530870.0309233798-238.6962945446

570.42408922560.48193355570.21056190170.17105855571993.117152954614.48110802630.105387452193.58927444270.0318205882-127.4240706439

580.42380979860.48365547880.210609980.17478335051993.059935178214.48282994940.106737409793.62371290490.0317918341-145.3979601067

590.42093052890.481193080.20678894390.17215801881993.049428711514.48036755060.103973091593.5744649290.0341959185-268.005015723

600.42524943340.48488667820.21252049810.17609601631993.065188411514.48406114880.108119568893.64833689290.0305897919-126.092100406

610.42362457310.48412097150.20803558650.17592174341993.0590447314.48329544210.1077619493.6330227590.0316831156-144.43175276

620.42033268350.48754469910.19779607540.18599300661993.044887014814.48671916970.1088809793.70149731140.0317979724-213.7800258851

630.42527051790.48240910770.22186281340.17088611171993.066123587614.48158357830.10333036893.59878548270.0316256872-134.9632514097

640.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.49980007910.193.46311549810.0318155534-126.0263552897

650.42853755340.47859674320.20937850630.17009432411993.057984578314.50277121380.102529176793.52253819310.0318944382-127.0245120959

660.42184482720.50062560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.49980007910.193.46311549810.0318155534-127.8179116871

670.42438064490.47816142620.22204311140.16792524011993.060523356614.50233589680.09944939893.51383185230.031691906-125.3983932806

680.41977294010.47753558390.20516906380.177462621993.041962046314.50171005450.100768398993.50131500630.031778539-135.8002418084

690.42296702640.47877958210.20947904210.17052927791993.082498611314.50295405270.10269372693.52619497040.0318180708-126.1126206877

700.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.52480007910.193.46311549810.0318155534-125.9280485384

710.42240834230.47618912350.20587327790.16953894221993.050661843314.50036359410.10593.4743857990.0317880762-127.2388534555

720.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.49980007910.193.96311549810.0318155534-126.465954144

730.42354713030.48025614330.21045834040.17304800821993.056516339814.50443061390.104059784493.55572619550.0312026726-124.9068861384

740.42324666740.4799428280.21009077870.17012619921993.055506866814.50411729860.103734414393.54945988920.0317397086-125.7868745343

750.42672039460.48235007220.21501249370.16156309961993.069051687414.50652454280.106700429893.59760477220.0317008781-141.9889918544

760.42150980370.47873920590.20762992130.1817817461993.048734456614.50291367650.102251406693.52538744770.0317591238-175.0645657328

770.42269597880.47794087590.20942726150.17152400411993.052180303914.50211534650.102029892293.50942084680.031509113-125.3332510991

780.42604234180.47942644330.20991842330.17157116611993.05725045914.50360091390.103294480693.53913219430.0315485554-125.7659312278

790.42269597880.49044087590.20942726150.17152400411993.052180303914.50211534650.102029892293.50942084680.031509113-125.7244580597

800.42396388760.47920878470.21625072590.17048662411993.058519848214.50338325540.101754591293.53477902390.0314472893-124.7120214796

810.42166003520.47889586360.20781370210.18324265051993.049239193114.50307033420.102414091793.52852060090.0314906058-173.4912560492

820.42325707840.47951786270.20996869130.1717886431993.069507475614.50369233330.103376755293.5409605830.0315103717-125.3847699793

830.42269597880.47794087590.20942726150.17152400411993.052180303914.51461534650.102029892293.50942084680.031509113-125.2846572169

840.42297773630.47822263340.20816580910.17129347521993.053589091514.5023971040.106014946193.51505599730.0314953744-125.6652202675

850.42269597880.47794087590.20942726150.17152400411993.052180303914.50211534650.102029892293.75942084680.031509113-125.3332510991

860.42354713030.48025614330.21045834040.17304800821993.056516339814.50443061390.104059784493.55572619550.0312026726-124.9068861384

870.42339689880.48009948570.21027455960.17158710371993.056011603314.50427395630.103897099493.55259304240.0314711906-125.1607174396

880.42513376240.48130310770.2127354170.15993155681993.062784013614.50547757840.105380107193.57666548380.0314517754-172.9625950832

890.42426533060.48070129670.21150498830.16575933021993.059397808414.50487576730.104638603293.56462926310.031461483-137.2316271936

900.42339689880.48009948570.21027455960.17158710371993.056011603314.50427395630.103897099493.55259304240.0314711906-125.1607174396

910.4225284670.47949767460.20904413080.17741487711993.052625398214.50367214520.103155595593.54055682160.0314808982-137.1215360081

920.42296268290.47979858010.20965934520.17450099041993.054318500814.50397305080.103526347493.5465749320.0314760444-128.1137170851

930.42339689880.48009948570.21027455960.17158710371993.056011603314.50427395630.103897099493.55259304240.0314711906-125.1607174396

940.42383111470.48040039120.21088977390.16867321691993.057704705914.50457486180.104267851393.55861115270.0314663368-128.2155638914

950.42317979090.47994903290.20996695240.1730440471993.05516505214.50412350350.103711723493.54958398720.0314736175-125.8833087607

960.42339689880.48009948570.21027455960.17158710371993.056011603314.50427395630.103897099493.55259304240.0314711906-125.1607174396

970.42361400680.48024993840.21058216670.17013016031993.056858154614.5044244090.104082475393.55560209750.0314687637-125.9400822688

980.42328834490.48002425930.2101207560.17231557531993.055588327714.50419872990.103804411493.55108851480.0314724041-125.3339027826

990.42309089920.48016590970.2102970410.17166981581993.05582692214.50434038030.103953758493.55392152240.0314627293-125.1291082941

1000.42013945650.48090537610.21067565860.17176846551993.05440338514.50507984670.104613036193.56871085050.0313769033-125.2010507385

MINIMUM OBTAINED0.42238348330.47713321060.20889440470.17030065671993.066623489214.51380768120.101283295593.49326754130.031824845-109.9144918744

1020.42396388760.47920878470.21625072590.17048662411993.058519848214.50338325540.101754591293.53477902390.0314472893124.7120214796

1030.42224499280.47675895190.20805271120.17060686831993.050863306914.51343342260.107055162493.48578236790.0317799627-115.7096305958

1040.42210411410.47661807320.20868343740.17072213281993.050158913114.51329254380.100835751493.60796479260.031786832-109.4794970432

1050.42257280530.47778912990.20925643720.17116796891993.052970608314.51446360060.101873906693.5063859280.0316346071-109.4630313158

1060.422472390.47776311730.20920883020.17075006431993.05319177614.51443758790.101148650893.5058656750.0317697071-109.4807679919

1070.42269978720.47876728270.21036494910.17089326031993.055520245114.51544175330.095242139293.5259489820.0317594515-112.0887113604

1080.42258608860.47826520.20978688960.17082166231993.054356010514.51493967060.09819539593.51590732850.0317645793-110.1740184233

1090.42245550330.4778756920.20895235460.17081875541993.053305923214.51455016260.100870572393.50811716910.0317706692-109.5071178537

1100.42217293820.47849935640.20580953960.1714340681993.053283161214.5151738270.101043043893.5205904570.0317854183-109.8467861006

1110.42227724140.4780021920.20860574590.17089523921993.053371386614.51467666260.100823349993.51064716810.0317683209-109.5330985093

1120.42077718720.4786435270.20828247350.17104476451993.054048782614.51531799760.100178654393.52347386970.0317300887-109.8115256049

MINIMUM OBTAINED0.42996595150.28948234080.13523289430.171993.589549821114.45267676110.105125630592.89170750360.0385775898-390.299405126

1140.42257280530.47778912990.20925643720.17116796891993.052970608314.51446360060.101873906693.5063859280.0316346071109.4630313158

1150.41094847780.32111594770.13871853950.171993.566484545414.44786466780.105479701992.95201249720.0385654419-274.0802780311

1160.31473679870.51606466150.14245599780.171993.422054494914.41912650830.128531145892.75593316970.0391088552-762.5866422525

1170.39650819940.35282540410.13727624050.171993.568817515514.43575408050.101693919192.97071771540.0387735382-226.311100341

1180.34831709360.47497125410.1191157930.171993.736577266514.34338636760.100846959693.35384922550.0403110883-247.6002574159

1190.38316502650.37644469550.13781504540.171993.588702931414.426833460.100423479893.09995166750.0386128158-204.8770287094

1200.29792440430.490491760.1613635410.171993.619797339214.42999496790.100211739994.0091596780.0354680411-485.9971494978

1210.38129698270.3736032620.13991588350.171993.610674358514.42804106660.100105869993.23919905730.0382082809-214.149680789

1220.44785716670.23114186260.13737576910.171993.799294222214.4369556250.10005293593.72246494490.0373077065-865.9469075711

1230.34801689070.44483396170.14118594070.171993.516364426714.42358378750.1042792592.99756611350.038658568-224.2499409076

1240.36779901580.39473930860.14186326590.171993.605118766814.42808641310.10213962593.30688257480.0378464277-196.6587221717

1250.26609943850.5348690750.16006703330.171993.643872781114.4329971570.101069812594.22535069330.033777609-890.9320815477

1260.41864880440.32467442540.13276138230.171993.585741759614.42563104120.100534906292.84764851550.0398808371-305.385235404

1270.36632569850.39349222430.14308631740.171993.575731608814.41840483270.100267453193.33347141590.0379667188-188.447671856

1280.30074273680.45108626390.1644187160.171993.301237036314.32404440050.100133726694.05859388630.0371352198-615.1607109749

1290.39911717930.36469520440.13242011810.171993.712978895114.46558504880.100395133692.97091018070.0383824682-340.2928490551

1300.37756934020.37951482920.13987038160.171993.58608511514.42235928610.100197566893.21811036060.038290544-199.1385080294

1310.45721427610.26853789840.11837722210.171993.552372890814.41472360440.129708870892.42706104330.0411130469-597.3834396614

1320.33774687220.43500329460.15061696130.171993.602941227114.4261771270.114854435493.61363501930.0368792925-237.0772188547

1330.37320603620.38476644090.14085487260.171993.598725073314.42836658250.107427217793.22052511020.0386644921-188.7563388727

1340.36939546440.38179409260.13995320310.171993.70826854414.48462170490.103713608992.84914794740.0438152243-454.2574196958

1350.37511132210.38625261510.14130570730.171993.543953337914.40023902130.101856804493.40621369160.036089126-269.3504143915

1360.37053871870.38716170880.14184216030.171993.579944455814.42110591270.100928402293.2688921670.0384096763-185.3238378117

1370.34196025810.40962821310.15126420240.171993.446910016614.37662677670.100464201193.56687415330.0384368843-253.4412029696

1380.37120064810.38702376630.14016575090.171993.573675889314.4148095560.100232100693.25511854320.0384679192-187.9913697053

1390.40639840240.36317783720.11397961470.171993.644024663414.39632512490.100116050392.81940031950.0390231405-423.3525389222

1400.35360177090.39894673080.1532588190.171993.538501502214.42405177160.100058025193.47297765510.0381903086-197.7993115313

1410.36397319990.39527624470.14244324380.171993.568426971814.41463408160.100029012693.32459955880.0382800827-185.6988550161

1420.30929759540.46587806390.15212510540.171993.55111218414.40363712210.100014506393.8015506020.0366793283-392.2639392812

1430.39131100220.3599753350.1376023130.171993.577084365714.42013256140.100007253193.08612403710.0390804599-212.5161880258

1440.36577316440.39235654690.14203175560.171993.572108197114.4168444750.100003626693.28903404160.0386124531-183.9093840729

1450.35643500670.39846047870.14275780390.171993.600263056414.43344992870.100001813393.17185439160.0411357803-278.9622730641

1460.37044224320.3893045810.14166873140.171993.558030767514.40854174810.100000906693.34762386660.0373507895-208.3440817208

1470.36673646120.40865901120.14321763030.171993.557014193314.41299105390.100000453393.29400859530.0382363525-179.8376482342

1480.37170035050.57473561980.15543940170.171993.420151584414.38275957010.100000226793.28516430780.0357370096-190.574094269

1490.37666423980.74081222840.16766117320.171993.283288975414.35252808620.100000113393.27632002020.0332376667-328.3002725947

1500.37004091590.42700427860.14368154130.171993.554041034214.41367247540.100000056793.26270750140.0379363664-178.1436981851

1510.39812157370.4443803440.13609888030.171993.661172051714.45071817410.100000028392.95854084950.0374358485-313.2012332596

1520.3560005870.41831624580.14747287190.171993.500475525414.3951496260.100000014293.41479082730.0381866254-191.4081451458

1530.36559928850.43063888920.14585488990.171993.540127480514.40681633330.100000007193.22533579570.0378423734-175.9111496456

1540.33522334290.47567302780.16379704450.171993.454557453314.35677776190.100000003592.69953541290.0366521841-280.9783173449

1550.38078726120.40812181980.13688381250.171993.582912494214.4318356190.100000001893.48823598710.038437468-200.0176522476

1560.36920708490.42321117420.14782911430.171993.52305361714.41664402790.100000000993.24026765810.0376341933-170.4290979363

1570.39009707620.37145109440.17654243550.171993.309529967414.48990168830.100000000493.12668609070.0349572984-136.4825876552

1580.41098706750.31969101450.20525575670.171993.096006317814.56315934860.124023475293.01310452320.0322804034-253.0996752853

1590.37502377420.41614981870.15070972250.171993.490452365914.42372453470.112011737693.18616222160.0374206384-173.5427888721

1600.41230067620.39729634270.15080248370.171993.377963504614.42127194240.106005868892.75868942390.0379619844-194.299696779

1610.3821664170.4108678610.15177822730.171993.475074485614.4234676630.103002934493.15962036720.0373432403-158.5823935386

1620.41631594330.37690176030.16237051390.171993.433784544614.42335153860.101501467293.32167462080.0360279125-204.3024227741

1630.38494474380.41274857490.15453024960.171993.459152283314.42382532720.100750733693.18579265430.0370040683-155.0324928888

1640.37857848550.46552181480.17145818610.171993.341220200914.4275180930.100375366893.28546127140.0349276767-141.7704427385

1650.38584877070.42121715640.1578401890.171993.435062220314.42593380990.100187683493.17888569920.0367348336-148.1527298566

1660.40125529820.45312973190.17401164660.171993.312093673114.44332587180.100093841793.01014753190.0361188776-137.0240070541

1670.38417536570.42968693110.15913364820.171993.421541012414.42815318030.100046920893.14427157820.0367449408-144.6150424404

1680.35203478810.48247210190.15589678250.171993.409297480214.4329548220.100023460492.96686853560.0374619691-222.0034912561

1690.40024565450.40329434570.1607520810.171993.427662778514.42575235950.100011730293.23297309950.0363864266-159.8595719325

1700.38633740940.4291505450.1617856780.171993.40429104414.42747726260.100005865193.11590903520.0365170473-141.2773371998

1710.39188755760.45017927020.18668754350.171993.225669593814.42311890610.100002932692.74358208330.0345966266-134.3069861735

1720.39743770580.47120799550.2115894090.171993.047048143614.41876054970.100001466392.37125513140.0326762059-180.2945549745

1730.38396305070.43698568850.16404727430.171993.383696481114.42587220320.100000733193.14783025450.0363403149-139.3411189152

1740.35466931570.49430839740.16176137190.171993.356372302914.41417996580.100000366693.83936940.0364934112-208.8254627677

1750.39860991830.4083243340.16519022550.171993.397358570214.43171832190.100000183392.80206068180.0362637667-146.2430063719

1760.3889639560.43802764440.16537298620.171993.368013933114.42672404210.100000091693.07328392420.0361262547-135.2848782179

1770.4243261410.47710855790.17748715340.171993.19752636414.42939631260.100000045892.67359019320.0340622008-130.3011309347

1780.45968832610.51618947140.18960132060.171993.027038794914.43206858320.100000022992.27389646230.0319981469-163.8407578358

1790.39030011880.44689566830.16833794950.171993.34796536214.42762674990.100000011593.06382845410.0356929454-131.1122719533

1800.36829956130.49649499380.18587341530.171993.317967219314.43398155740.100000005793.36896748430.0334239064-173.753031252

1810.39166667150.45558219580.17260467650.171993.327686661314.43194140890.100000002993.05873697150.0351637544-127.2919087903

1820.42733275590.49284814580.19773648120.171993.154897797214.46873319190.100000001492.70268311580.0321408834-129.9018195677

1830.46299884040.53011409580.22286828580.171992.982108933114.50552497480.100000000792.346629260.0291180124-194.6436122869

1840.39784804980.44648358760.1773043520.171993.298214018314.44149403360.100000000492.99401683910.0347641848-122.9599759607

1850.42399574920.31823155540.19916930230.171993.176276452214.50022849710.100000000292.70286937040.03379136-202.3676146027

1860.38477420020.51060960370.16637187690.171993.359182801314.41212680180.100000000193.13959057340.0352505972-143.2479055337

1870.39967856530.44805187760.17513751440.171993.302793527414.43906572740.192.96853051570.0349671504-124.1324527312

1880.43105756920.39960876140.16440161360.171993.287619835514.44414989740.192.5680935470.0365103945-190.1941351162

1890.38398906330.47227343570.18050546480.171993.310380373314.43652364240.193.1687490.0341955284-133.1402405495

1900.39787227740.45571622090.17733233480.171993.28976214914.44026253660.192.96139450460.0347237173-121.813338741

1910.39549890020.50813809620.19391258860.171993.151861519614.45477271380.192.68981590970.033061008-128.9899269384

1920.3931255230.56055997150.21049284240.171993.013960890114.4692828910.192.41823731470.0313982987-191.9275968487

1930.39752660870.4668066390.18052370850.171993.26248469914.44282413570.192.94892286330.0343678552-119.5012029918

1940.39644329910.52528894390.19585719150.171993.127610827714.45392994960.193.09578504470.0324719437-137.2939137179

1950.39882317520.46843767680.18379985460.171993.236754479714.44746892990.192.94405558230.0340591159-117.5219143167

1960.41287215030.42626574980.20122783230.171993.11432615814.4828110580.192.74852059110.0328676347-115.7830608844

1970.42692112530.38409382290.218655810.171992.991897836414.51815318620.192.55298560.0316761534-141.6994480863

1980.40263358240.46407589180.1871075930.171993.211544030514.45361259270.192.88439550670.0338302224-114.7617982142

1990.42668867940.46262996880.20275699990.171993.0818678614.47970709250.192.4833297420.032732768-118.1184228255

2000.40599418020.45711378340.18787423840.171993.206461478514.45647671970.192.81634491750.0338592029-114.231355896

2010.41554506140.38893862290.17989128540.171993.285312129314.45902348980.192.53690479030.035246462-153.6735333113

2020.40121873970.49120136370.1918657150.171993.167036153114.45520333470.192.95606498110.0331655733-117.3577588107

2030.40599011820.46134396470.18985802380.171993.190343976314.45779643780.192.81033574520.0335310579-112.9134694753

2040.41072493810.46955819760.2057044010.171993.068594279414.47226700380.192.61052395850.0309432383-128.9260456791

2050.40828210280.4722447540.19309824220.171993.163573344314.45583702840.192.75298439720.0330850513-111.6481897

2060.42646712950.57303841350.20965404890.171993.017616721214.42177236860.192.37928270370.0312128042-129.953042154

2070.41212427750.48589576990.19565007610.171993.140456358414.45568741320.192.71250668830.032709071-111.7843295911

2080.43236099740.52161226950.20461260870.171993.055243123114.48825592020.192.68143129340.0308215154-151.4772594866

2090.40200591760.46803752010.19116880980.171993.183062976114.43940315960.192.72804438580.0336528488-115.7414848687

2100.41412615020.48542511260.19683489220.171993.12630998114.45600735950.192.6635395090.0326487733-110.5482548359

2110.44426323710.49857678950.21316431960.171992.942239588614.47549107660.192.1583300180.0311020181-113.9679784542

2120.47440032390.51172846640.2294937470.171992.758169196214.49497479370.191.6531205270.029555263-137.4589055748

2130.41634138310.48781047170.20079902180.171993.097944783714.4611290.192.60628837840.0323198641-109.7227707052

2140.40835662510.49851238540.22411089020.171992.998363203414.49286168730.192.53898656360.0305775274-131.0853157076

2150.42033376210.48245951480.18914308760.171993.147735573914.44526265630.192.63993928580.0331910324-114.6384871071

2160.41565989780.47774614960.19852002610.171993.11240243414.46373903190.192.63525022090.0325396672-109.405255898

2170.40485266610.38245388560.18738600330.171993.207188146814.50570569520.100600173492.8912177380.0338665303-127.8405936986

2180.413162110.46548012070.1973699730.171993.118212472814.46784708780.100300086792.65619851220.0327314058-109.4293209592

2190.39899146420.43811209550.19700346490.171993.081527148514.46696098380.100150043392.60971390870.0333219282-133.2976657991

2200.4202474330.47916413320.19755322710.171993.13655513514.46829013990.100075021792.6794408140.0324361446-114.1205568723

2210.4159119470.46226079140.19777448840.171993.116511763414.46934902410.100037510892.65504572380.0326619765-109.437163294

2220.43632499390.41638348670.20163638820.171993.081162007314.48392533430.100018755492.6202755380.032262945-133.6331655705

2230.40570542360.48519944380.19584353850.171993.134186641514.46206086890.100009377792.67243081670.0328614922-113.6357453687

2240.41535422320.46399870770.1966788370.171993.123799803714.46821500910.100004688992.66192426360.0328751158-109.6374369412

2250.41998350830.45843921780.1876532730.171993.179005327914.46416301430.100002344492.71332456870.0348069933-135.6242295694

2260.41303958060.46677845260.2011916190.171993.096197041614.47024100650.100001172292.63622411110.0319091771-112.9990964675

2270.41626388040.4733681040.19821279430.171993.111467458614.46427448810.100000586192.63359163840.0326576321-109.0068703576

2280.42767509460.56428232250.20903958530.171993.015746770514.4228432810.100000293192.37596553880.031448734-123.2472923472

2290.42196948750.51882521320.20362618980.171993.063607114614.44355888460.100000146592.50477858860.0320531831-112.2537452148

2300.41573952570.47961202010.1983093710.171993.109438486914.46025802060.100000073392.63597484360.0325821227-109.2735316707

2310.4047903720.49659407140.1938617420.171993.137009113814.44080894860.100000036692.78861994520.0324314774-122.6459217773

2320.42121410250.47112099440.20053318540.171993.095653173514.46998255650.100000018392.55965229280.0326574454-109.3427303833

2330.41796123270.47738086790.19927242320.171993.101507044814.46190015630.100000009292.59192898930.032525664-108.8405426648

2340.43470372570.46356037220.20667913150.171993.035977936414.4685969780.100000004692.22779299750.0318857548-114.1327120459

2350.42038696330.48152471490.19987812320.171993.092801686814.46032081410.100000002392.53407036780.0324165663-109.0110531039

2360.42790177630.53678367990.1985284140.171993.071277215614.43783057010.100000001192.31962014450.0319654979-117.8559963899

2370.41662955680.45389523240.20055297770.171993.103563922414.47156593610.100000000692.64129547950.0326421005-109.7658626704

2380.42201181210.47995334960.20092080850.171993.083968458614.46389445590.100000000392.52443160040.0323042609-109.0277409901

2390.44201770660.49186917910.21067280720.171992.984873941114.48838575220.100000000192.32081881510.030955673-116.6837150872

2400.41200886480.47399543480.19604480920.171993.133515717414.45164880780.100000000192.62623799310.0329785549-110.0094154006

2410.42108682350.47901289630.20168766640.171993.082388474514.46460402830.192.52290923460.0322806523-108.616781065

2420.4218398850.47556627770.21423224530.171993.017041375214.48394540030.192.40587918340.0313702722-111.0265270089

2430.41965750790.48034688570.20252690130.171993.080284412214.46630940860.192.54269658860.0322233764-108.468484414

2440.404611290.49713339930.19837467110.171993.12459088814.46402183910.192.85760017960.0325609981-117.0720703355

2450.42718061680.4719536290.20460301640.171993.058131174314.46745319330.192.38524479310.0320545656-109.7082728806

2460.42042786160.47954571860.20331021120.171993.071570638814.46621641450.192.51000814180.0321809788-108.2589860869

2470.42060829030.4799273040.20906719540.171993.006586142514.46414268920.192.34057546960.031925813-116.5975076739

2480.42033764730.47935492590.20043171920.171993.104062886914.46725327720.192.59472447790.0323085617-109.9930327172

2490.41776946280.4774099560.20189547780.171993.089551005214.46530110350.192.55849641510.0323150392-108.5011099186

2500.39127568850.45624312250.1906266360.171993.236862421914.45511113030.192.95866281230.0335280602-121.1776992206

2510.43101634990.48799337270.20752989870.171993.015895296914.470396090.192.35841321660.0317085287-109.486542415

2520.42058178790.47772039250.20319396230.171993.076407522514.46622723910.192.52360557070.0321869321-108.2896065254

2530.43545815220.47024134130.21054438610.171993.018628403514.47039360930.192.37478032460.031512372-112.2664558365

2540.42307274030.47810515790.20423315860.171993.06778878514.4662441950.192.49455626110.0321428427-108.9999064733

2550.43310590.48943186330.20727469830.171993.039380528414.46224738360.192.3528884110.0323765082-117.998672665

2560.41805616050.47244180530.20271238880.171993.081992913314.46824260070.192.56539018610.0320260099-109.3588582332

2570.42113918570.47834965390.20336293670.171993.07482928614.46600519410.192.51573513450.0321999135-108.2451741675

2580.40682021910.48645796660.19618148740.171993.131030168614.46161677880.192.65668994450.0328874551-113.0605353595

2590.4282986690.47429549760.20695366140.171993.046728844814.46819940170.192.44525772960.0318561428-109.5042529379

2600.42184242810.47340190780.20373265580.171993.072953922714.46874302930.192.50912170580.0321780202-108.2388275055

2610.42171536860.42797860230.20383912180.171993.082300730914.4939271740.192.51346482290.0323028572-113.3151513872

2620.42190595780.49611356050.20367942280.171993.068280518614.45615095690.192.50695014720.0321156016-109.1575842158

2630.42184976950.47568493920.202560120.171993.078647160914.46565475780.192.52035181290.0322608345-108.430439952

2640.4218596540.47580360060.19088799470.171993.140252946614.44736411530.192.63482444230.0331513969-113.7413875298

2650.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-109.3241708137

MINIMUM OBTAINED0.65915260670.025069325100.17999999991994.357176959214.56472044470.111159961693.17774297040.0204414966-4686.5516376427

2670.42190595780.49611356050.20367942280.62901422761993.068280518614.45615095690.045585694292.50695014720.0321156016109.1575842158

2680.65882731860.032285636800.181994.356270153614.56174588680.112593661793.09554200470.0204569806-4692.1814223682

2690.65937225640.026063021900.181994.358335401114.56415094470.111277091693.16531507980.0204390522-4687.116995146

2700.66189404170.028783678600.181994.370826625614.56143050280.111014691393.12323713970.0203991236-4735.1860882132

2710.65811136380.024702693600.181994.352089788914.56551116560.111408291893.18635404990.0204590165-4689.9380250025

2720.65959786860.026949825800.181994.357343695914.56358618750.11182224993.15895121140.0204305823-4686.9247751273

2730.66311488270.037178192300.17964544731994.353672255414.5565783950.117142622693.07427355690.0203259194-4714.4451061182

2740.65783936150.021835642500.17982272371994.359179416114.56709008380.109162062293.20129003860.0204829138-4699.5042479624

2750.65938406860.025966332600.1799

paul nunn 5 october 2005

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