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  • 8/6/2019 Pathfinder July 2011

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    July 2011 A Monthly Wealth Journal

    The Path To WealthWEALTH MANAGEMENT

    ASSOCIAFOR LI

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    Equities | Commodities | IPO | Mutual Fund | Insurance Distribution

    Wealth Management | PMS | Investment Banking | Fixed Income | Property Broking

    Watch how your w ealthhas the potent ial to make it big.

    UNICON Securities Pvt. Ltd. Reg. Office: 69, 2nd floor, Regal building, Connaught Circus, New Delhi-110001, Tel: 011-43690700,Fax: 011-43690705 Head Office: P-45/90 , Connaught Circus, New Delhi-110001, Tel: 43529500, Fax: 011-43581216SMS UNICON TO 54646 | TOLL FREE NO. : 1800 1033 3 88 | w ww .un icon.in | e -mai l : in f o@unicon. inUNICON Securit ies Pvt . Ltd.: Member NSE-SEBI Reg. No.: INB231283830, INF231283830, INE231283830, BSE Reg. No.: INB011282531 ,INF011282 531 , M CX-SX-SEBI Reg. No.: INE261 283 830 , MCX Reg. No.: 317 50 , FMC Code: MCX/TCM/CORP/11 27 , NCDEX Reg.No.: 0072 1, FMCCode: NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0706 Unicon Commodit ies Pvt. Lt d.: Member MCX Reg. No.: 317 50, FMC Code: MCX/TCM/CORP/112 7 , M ember

    NCDEX Reg. No.00721 , FMC Code: NCDEX/TCM/CORP/070 6 Disclaimer: All investments in Securities & Commodities are subject to market risk.

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    Contents

    Editor Vijay Agrawal

    Assistant Editor Yatish Pandey

    Wealth Management

    Unicon Financial Intermediaries. Pvt. Ltd.

    H ead Office:

    P-45/ 90, Connaugh t Place

    New Delhi- 110001, India.

    Tel: 011 -43529500

    Fax: 011 -43581216

    Corporate Office:

    2nd Floor, Vilco Center,

    8th Subhash Road, Ville

    Parle (E ast), Mumbai 400057.

    SMS UNICON TO 54646 - TOLL FREE: 1800 10333 88

    Printed and Published on behalf of

    Vijay Agrawal

    Unicon Wealth Management

    2nd Floor, Vilco Center,

    8th Subhash Road, Ville

    Parle (E ast), Mumbai 400057.

    [email protected]

    Design & Print

    Kozmic Style Offset

    D 137, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase- 1,

    New Delhi - 110020

    Ph.: +91 11 46251190, Email: [email protected]

    DISCLAIMER :This documen t has been issued by Unicon Financial Intermediaries. Pvt. Ltd. (UNICON ) for the information of its customers only. UNICON is governed by the Securities and Exchan ge Board of India. This documen t for public distribution and has b een furnished to you solely for your information an d must not b e reproduced or redistributed t o any other person. Persons into whose possession this docu ment may come are required to observe these restrictionsinformation and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained in good faith from public sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranrepresentation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information an d opinions are sub ject to change without n otice. This docum ent has been produced ind ependent ly of any compacompanies ment ioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expect ations contained h erein are subject to change without not ice. This documen t is for information purpo ses only and is provided on an as is basis. Descriptions ocompany or companies or their securities mentioned h erein are not intended to b e complete and th is document is not, and should not be con strued as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell or subscribe to any securities or other finainstrumen ts. We are not soliciting any action based on this documen t. UNICO N, its associate and grou p companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained d ue tinvestments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for dispdownloading, printing , reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such d istribution, pub lication, reproduction, availability owould be contrary to law or regulation or would subject UNICON or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If th is document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual incountry, the same may be ignored and brought to the atten tion of the sender. This docum ent may not be reproduced, distributed or pub lished for any purpose without prior written approval of UN ICON . This document is for the general informand does no t take into account t he particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual customer, and it do es not constitute a p ersonalized recommendation of any particu lar security or investment strategy. Before actinany advice or recommendation in this docu ment, a customer shou ld consider whether it is suitable given the customers particular circumstances an d, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, includin g those involving futoptions, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. UNICON, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content odocument a nd reliance upon it is at your own risk.

    UNICON, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document andinformation in it. UNICO N, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document . No part of th is publication may be reproduced, sin a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photoco pying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Unicon Finan cial Intermediaries. Pvt. Ltd.

    There a growing perception that the current government under the leadersof Manmohan Singh is one of the most corrupt. The questions over varioissues like unearthing of scams, standoff with civil members on drafting

    Lokpal bill, government's sincerity in unearthing of black money and tgrowing disconnect between the PM and Congress president Sonia Ganhas put the PM on the back foot. While various steps are being taken by

    PM to change the negative perception, still lot needs to be done to improgovernance and fast track policy changes.

    The Indian economy continues to face headwinds as WPI inflation for May9.06%, was higher than expected. The fuel inflation is further expected to r

    as government raised the price of diesel by` 3/ l, kerosene by ` 2/ l and lpg

    ` 50 / cylinder. Continuing with the policy of monetary tightening, the Rfurther increased the repo and reverse repo rate by 25 bps to 7.5% and 6.5respectively. The IIP figure, which has been moved to a new base year of 2005, stood at 6.3% for April against 8.8% in March and continues to indicat

    slowdown in industrial growth. The exports for May have increased by 56.9to $25b . However, the imports have also increased by 54.08% , resulting itrade deficit of $15b, which is the highest since Aug 2008.

    Globally, we are facing challenges due to political instability, high commodprices and high sovereign debt in many nations. The sovereign debt crisis

    Greece has been partly been averted as IMF, Eurozone governments ainvestors have agreed to provide a total of about 85 billion euro packageavert default after Greece agreed to a austerity measures and reducing

    fiscal deficit. However, the government in Greece and many other Europe

    countries face an uphill task and it would take a lot of effort and time for theeconomies to be back on track. The situation in US is also not encouraging athe recovery is seen to be weakening as QE 2 ended in June .

    Going ahead, the current financial year can be a difficult time for the corporIndia due to rising raw material costs and interest rates. Slowdown in demais visible in automobiles and FMCG and the net profit is expected to fa

    However, the rural economy is expected to be robust after a good monsoonthe current season. Government should also bring about long pending polchanges and take correction in terms of improving governance . This wo

    provide some stability to economic growth and improve investor sentiment

    Regards,

    Gajendra Nagpal

    Founder & CEO

    Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt. Ltd.

    The Road Ahead

    Alternative Investment Ideas 16

    Commodity round up 15

    Real Estate Opportunities 13-14

    Currency Market Outlook 12

    Bond Market Outlook 12

    Insurance 11

    Mutual Fund round up 10

    Derivative Market Outlook 9

    Technical Market Outlook 8

    Stock pick of the month 7

    Sector of the month 6

    Model Portfolios 4

    Market Round Up -Equity 3

    Wealth Overview 2

    The Road Ahead 1

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    Real Estate: Really worth investing

    I am feeling very happy to see a solid revival in the equity markets in the last week of June. It has provided a much required relief to the saggportfolio of investors who were suffering from low to range bound markets since last 3-4 months. It again reinforces the importance of asallocation as in this month; commodities & other precious metals could not give any significant returns. We have been regularly puttiemphasis on having an asset allocation strategy based on one's risk return profile.

    Taking it further I would like to deal with an asset class which is really close to all of us. Yes you guessed it right. It's real estate. It's has becoman important component in the portfolio of most of the HNIs. Real estate investing has been around for thousands of years. Although trules are different than the stock market, real estate investing can make you wealthy if done with due proper due diligence.

    Real estate has outperformed, most of the times, any other class of asset, if you take a five year view. If you are patient, if you have the time

    hand and if you are a long-term investor, there is nothing like real estate. There are short-term blips that you would be careful of and you ha

    to pick up real estate at the real right time and Price.Wealth managers have been suggesting to the Indian investors to invest in stocks, bonds, gold, and fixed deposits, as their traditioninvestment instruments, now they are increasingly looking for real estate properties as an alternate investment avenue to increase returns o

    their portfolios. The rapid growth in the real estate market, as an asset class, has drawn the property investors from around the major Indicities. In fact, India's residential sector has been the most resilient against the slump in prices, and recovering steadily, assisted by the hidemand for housing.

    While the residential real estate property prices slumped in the first two quarters of 2009, prices recovered rapidly towards the end of 2009 ahave been showing steady performance since then. Investors have made decent money across the country especially in Tier II cities liBaroda, Indore, Cochin and Jaipur. Here we have seen a rapid shift in population from rural to urban areas & hence giving boost to the reestate investments.

    I am sure you must be wondering how to take advantage of the potential of the real estate as an asset class. You may invest in two ways as giv

    below:Direct:You may buy the property directly in the form of land/ plot/ commercial premises and residential apartments. But this may or may nbe feasible for everyone. People normally face two limitations while investing directly in real estates. On the one hand, the ticket size of t

    properties and second access to the investible property itself. Further you may feel comfortable in investing in real estate in your city residence only. So, if it's feasible, it's surely a good asset class to be in.

    Indirect: Thanks to financial innovation, there are multiple ways of participating in the real estate growth opportunities. You can subscribefollowing products to your portfolio as a part of your real estate portfolio.

    Real Estate PMS

    Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

    Stocks of Real Estate Companies

    PE products focused on Real EstateLooking into the possibility of generating excellent returns by this asset class, we would recommend enhancing your allocation to the restate as an asset class positively. You may invest either directly or indirectly as suggested above. In the indirect segment, one such produavailable is a real estate fund by JM Financial which intend to generate returns by investing in rent yielding properties. It can be considered fparticipating in the high growth real estate sector. As a prudent investor, you are suggested to be in touch with your respective wealth manag

    for exploring many more opportunities in the real estate sector.

    Happy investing !!!

    Rajev B Sharma

    Country Head Wealth Management & Investment Banking

    Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt. Ltd

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    Wealth Overview

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    Market Round Up -Equity

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    Sectoral Indices Performance

    Market News

    Highlights?

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    Major global indices traded negative in the June month.In the US markets, Dow (-1.24%), Nasdaq (-2.18%), S&P500 (-1.83%) ended negative.

    In major Asian Markets, Nikkei (+1.26%) ended positive.In the European markets CAC (-0.62%), FTSE (-0.74%) endedmarginally negative inline with global peers.On the domestic front, Nifty gained 87.25 points (+1.57%) andSensex gained 342.59 points (+1.85%) in the month of June.NSE Cash Turnover: ` 222,457 cr down 4.88% as compared toprevious month (` 233,876 cr)Total Derivative Turnover: ` 2,438,176 cr down 6.41% ascompared to previous month (` 2,605,138 cr).Turnover in index futures decreased by 13.27% over theprevious month.Turnover in index options decreased by 5.72% over theprevious month.Turnover in stock futures decreased by 4.16% over the previousmonth.

    Index June-11 Change Change % High Low

    Sensex 18,503.28 18,845.87 342.59 1.85% 18,873.39 17,314.38

    Nifty 5560.15 5647.4 87.25 1.57% 5,657.90 5,195.90

    May-11

    Domestic Markets

    Sectoral Indices

    Nifty Index PCR

    Turnover

    (` crs.)Index Futures 305744 265177 372265 -13.27%

    Stock Futures 336688 322694 421843 -4.16%

    Index Options 1892896 1784570 1169942 -5.72%

    Stock Options 69808 65733 71547 -5.84%

    Total 2605137 2438176 2035598 -6.41%

    May-11 Jun-11 Jun-10 MoM

    Change%

    Global Markets

    Index May-11 June-11 Change Change % High Low

    Dow Jones 12,569.79 12,414.34 -155.45 -1.24% 12,569.34 11,821.96

    Nasdaq 2,835.30 2,773.52 -61.78 -2.18% 2,834.05 2,599.86

    S&P 500 1,345.20 1,320.64 -24.56 -1.83% 1,345.20 1,258.07

    Nikkei 9,693.73 9,816.09 122.36 1.26% 9,849.69 9,318.62

    CAC 4,006.94 3,982.21 -24.73 -0.62% 4,015.85 3,742.31

    FTSE 5,990.00 5,945.70 -44.3 -0.74% 5,995.20 5,644.40

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    FIIs were net buyers of ` 2662 cr (In May net sellers of 37

    cr). DIIs were net sellers of ` 100 cr (In May net buyers

    ` 4093 cr) in cash market.

    IPOs open in June 2011: Rushil Dcor Ltd., Birla Pacif

    Medspa Ltd., Readymade Steel India Ltd.

    IPOs listed in June 2011: VMS Industries Ltd., Timb

    Home Ltd.

    State-run Coal India Ltd (CIL), received 18 tenders fro

    international companies for long-term thermal coal offta

    agreements.

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in Sou

    Indian states, especially Tamil Nadu and Andhra Prades

    slowed down considerably and fell below the national avera

    of 8.7%.

    State-run NMDC agreed to team up with Australi

    Minemakers Ltd to develop a phosphate mine in Wonarah

    northern Australia.

    Advance tax payments made by 100 firms based in Mumb

    India's financial capital, rose by 14% for the three mont

    ending June, signaling moderate growth in corporate prof

    amid fears of shrinking margins.

    The Tata Steel board sold its entire stake of 26.27%

    Riversdale Mining for A$1.06 billion.

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    Among the BSE sectoral indices, CG (+6.21%), FMC(+4.85%), CD (+2.44%), Bankex (+2.22%), Power (+2.20ended positive.Realty (-7.26%), Oil&Gas (-4.02%), Metal (-2.27%) endnegative.Among other indices, BSE MidCap (-0.81%), SmallCap0.96%) ended negative, while BSE100 (+0.85%) endpositive

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    Model Portfolios

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    The portfolio has marginally underperformed Nifty by 0.3%on monthly basis.73% of the stocks in the portfolios gave positive monthlyreturn.For the month of June, Optimiser recorded robustperformance backed by 11% return in L&T and 5% return inCastrol India.

    Dabur India, Aurobindo Pharma and HCL were laggardsduring the month, all losing more than 2%.

    The stocks in our portfolio represent the best possible picks intheir respective sectors and we continue to believe that there isfurther potential upside from its current levels.High inflation has led the Reserve Bank of India to hike interestrates aggressively more than 8 times over 10 months. The illeffect of high interest rate and slower growth have already beenlargely factored in stock prices. The market has rallied for pasttwo weeks which has helped to lift sentiment. However, anynegative earnings surprise in the 1QFY12 coupled with global

    factors such as crude oil and Europe sovereign-debt crisis canaffect the sustain ability.We will also continue to look out for value picks for the portfolio.

    Stocks Entered

    No changes during the month

    Stocks E xited

    No changes during the month

    Strategy

    Stock movement

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    Sr. Stock N am e % Wtg Rec.P riceNo May-2011 (Since Inception) May-2011

    Price 31s t % return %return

    Concentrating on stable large cap, blue-chip companies aimed atclients with moderate to low risk appetite.

    Defensive PortfolioObjective

    1 Punjab National Bank 2.3% 678.45 1089.60 60.6% -0.9%

    2 Bank of Baroda 2.1% 425.65 871.90 104.8% 1.0%

    3 ICICI Bank 0.9% 950.00 1093.10 15.1% 0.7%

    4 BHEL 8.4% 2082.96 2046.55 -1.7% 5.3%

    5 Crompton Greaves 2.0% 261.10 259.20 -0.7% -1.8%

    6 Dabur India 2.4% 69.20 114.05 64.8% -2.4%

    7 Godrej Cons. Product 8.6% 235.15 430.25 83.0% 3.1%

    8 Gillette India 3.0% 1414.25 2114.80 49.5% 13.4%

    9 Britannia Ind 1.9% 440.00 477.50 8.5% 14.4%10 Castrol India 11.6% 240.93 526.20 118.4% 5.8%

    11 Larsen & Toubro 6.6% 1510.70 1822.65 20.6% 10.9%

    12 Dr. Reddy's Lab 2.9% 765.45 1533.40 100.3% -5.1%

    13 Glaxosmith Pharma 7.5% 1454.40 2353.85 61.8% 1.3%

    14 NTPC 6.1% 205.55 186.85 -9.1% 10.6%

    15 Oil India 7.6% 1140.55 1301.65 14.1% 1.2%

    16 Reliance Industries 2.4% 955.00 897.60 -6.0% -5.7%

    Cash 23.9%

    Total 100.0% 49.7% 3.0%

    % Returns Growth Nifty

    Since inception 49.7% 22.9%

    Performance + 26.8%

    For month of Jun 3.0% 1.6%

    Performance +1.4%

    Top 5 Sectors Wtg

    FMCG 15.8%Chemicals 11.6%Pharmaceuticals 10.4%Capital Goods 10.4%Oil and Gas 10.0%

    Performance Highlights

    Strategy

    Stock movement

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    The portfolio has outperformed the Nifty Index by 26.8

    since inception and 1.4% for the month.

    The outperformance during the month was led by Britann

    Gillette. L&T, NTPC and BHEL. However, Dr. Reddy a

    Reliance followed by Crompton remained laggards for

    month

    Broadly, higher fund allocation in Budget 2012

    infrastructure and recent move to allow FII to invest moreIndian infrastructure via debt augurs well not only for t

    infrastructure sector but also to the overall economy of t

    country, as Infra spending has positive cascading effects

    other sectors of the economy.

    Key catalysts to market performance over next quarter wou

    be RBI policies to control inflation and Global mark

    sentiments, as risk loom large over US and other Euro natio

    debt concern.

    Currently, market has come off from yearly lows and tradi

    at reasonable valuations. The upcoming results aaddressing of both the domestic and global concerns in n

    few weeks would give further direction to the market.

    We would continue to invest in stocks, depending

    opportunity keeping fund's objective.

    Stocks Entered

    No portfolio changes during the month

    Stocks E xitedNo portfolio changes during the month

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    The secondary capital market volumes clocked a growth of 40% YoY to ` 1330 bn in FY11 from ` 950 bn in FY10.

    Presently close to 86% of the capital market volumes comprise of F&O volumes as compared to 76% in FY10. Change in the cap

    market volume mix has tempered market share of top capital market intermediaries during FY11.

    Brokerage industry has started diversifying their revenue streams due to change in volume mix which has led to fall in equity broki

    revenues. In H2FY11 we have seen commodity, Investment banking, financing & lending business contributing more revenues in to

    revenue. The outbound transaction segment M&A deal values increased to $50 bn across 662 deals in CY10, as compared to $12 bn acro

    330 deals in CY09. A total of over $5 bn was raised by 45 companies via QIPs in FY11 & $9 bn were raised across 57 IPOs in FY11. Priv

    equity deal value was $9 bn across over 300 transactions in FY11, much higher than the $5.5 bn across 276 transactions witnessed in FY

    Moreover, lower delivery volumes in the cash segment have impacted brokerage yields during FY11 which has seen a drop. However, c

    effective distribution model franchisee and online trading through portals has helped the brokerage houses to keep a check on

    operating costs.

    Introduction

    The strong GDP growth of ~8%+ has been able to attract investors to the capital markets over the years. In the past 5 years, followingincreased participation from institutional (both foreign and domestic) as well as retail investors, volumes have increased at CAGR 55%. Alowith this the FII registration has gone upto 1721 in 2011 from 513 in 2003. Positive regulatory changes, launching of various instrumentsincreased foreign participation has resulted in indices giving 100% return since FY05. However, FY11 remained a lackluster year, with F

    investments declining at ~ ` 173 bn as compared to ~ 273 Bn in FY10 along with retail investor's participation remaining low.`

    Overview?

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    As a percentage of the total population, the retail investor participation in capital market is just 1.3%, whereas in the US and China i

    27.7% and 10.5% respectively. Therefore, regulator along with stock broking companies should focus more on developing the re

    business segment going ahead.

    The slower growth in US & other developed markets along with debt crisis in Europe to provide opportunity to emerging mark

    especially countries like India which has an edge due to strong economic growth going ahead.

    Other financial avenues like Investment banking, commodity markets, credit & financing business to open more growth opportunity f

    the broking industry.

    Brokerage industry diversification through inorganic growth route likely - acquisition of Anagram capital (well known retail brokera

    house) by Edelweiss Capital (prominent institutional brokerage house and investment banker) is an initiation of consolidations in

    industry. In contrast to this, Reliance capital, which has a well established retail broking arm Reliance money, has acquired an institutio

    investment advisory firm Quant capital. We expect the brokerage industry is ripe for consolidation in near future.

    Share prices of the top broking firms are trading near their 52-week low & valuations are attractive. Going forward, if the mark

    conditions improve investors with high risk can accumulate large caps like India Infoline, Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss etc.

    India Infoline 3.5 bps 4.2 bps

    Motilal Oswal 4.6 bps 5.5 bps

    Edelweiss 4.2 bps 4.3 bps

    Religare 3.55 bps 3.93 bps

    Brokerage House Q4FY11 Q3FY11Average blended yield

    Trends in Broking Industry in FY11

    India Infoline 4 3.8

    Motilal Oswal 2.5 2.8

    Edelweiss 3.9 4.5

    Religare 3 3.4Kotak 3.4 4.1

    Brokerage House FY11 FY10

    Market share

    Sector of the month-Indian Broking Industry

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    Stock of the month

    Investment Rationale

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    Strong positive outlook for core infrastructure industry (Power, Steel Cement), directly linked, augurs well for the business prospects TSL.Established player (executed highest orders for coal handling during eleventh five year plan) in ash and material handling segment aforay into BoP segment (synchronization and diversification) would lead to growth with diversificationHaving secured orders worth ` 2.24bn in Waste heat recovery (WHR) from Cement Industry, order intake momentum in this segmenlikely continue. WHR is a new concept and is gaining momentum in the Indian cement industry. This module of alternative energy cement plants can generate, depending on the capacity of the cement plant, ~ 2 to 15-18MW of power in cement plantStrong technical expertise (in-house and through collaborations) enables TSL to offer its product and services on turnkey basis withinstipulated time at competitive ratesClientele with strong base (like NTPC, BHEL, Steel Authority, Reliance Energy, Mecon, Lanco, Punj Lloyd, JSW Energy, Tata PowHindalco, and Shree Cement) mitigates risk of project deferment or cancellation

    Revenue visibility over FY13e on the back of strong order-book of ` 43.7bn (2.2x FY11 sales)

    Tecpro Systems Ltd.

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    Key Risks

    Key risks are a) non availability of long term project funding with higher debt cost could slow down growth in core sector which would hadirect impact on the business and growth prospects of TSL and b) rise in working capital would lead to stress on cash flow and higher intercost.

    Manufacturing Locations

    TSL manufactures stackers, reclaimers, crushers, screens, feeders and fabricated structures at its factory in Bawal, Haryana. TSL's plantBhiwadi, Rajasthan manufactures pulleys, idler & rollers, structures, feeders, screens, conveyor systems, conveyor components, crushers ascreen parts. TSL also has a casting unit in Bhiwadi for both material handling and ash handling equipments. The third unit at BhiwaRajasthan only manufactures ash handling equipments.

    *30th June.2011 www.nseindia.com

    Tecpro Systems Ltd. (TSL) is an established material handling company with presence in the coal handling (19% market share) and a

    handling (15% market share) for power, steel, cement and other sectors. TSL has recently forayed into BoP segment and has secured tworders worth ` 29.7bn (68% of its current order-book). We believe TSL would be key beneficiary, given its leadership position in material / a

    handling business and strong growth in underlying industry. With revenue and profit expected to grow at CAGR of 25% and 18% respectiv

    over FY13, recommend Buy on the stock for price target of` 300 (+20%).

    CMP: ` 250* Target: ` 3

    Financials

    For Q4FY11, TSL's revenue was` 9.6bn (+30% YoY) as compared to ` 7.4bn during same quarter last year. EBITDA for the quarter was ` 2(+32% YoY) compared to ` 1.5bn during corresponding quarter last year. PAT increased by 21% to ` 1.1bn. For full year FY11, TSL's revenugrew by 35% YoY to ` 19.7bn. Operating profit at ` 3.01bn was higher by 52% with operating profit margin of 15%. Over FY13e, we expcompany's revenue and net profit after tax to grow @ CAGR of 25% and 18% respectively.

    Outlook & Valuation

    At the CMP, TSL trades at 6.6x our FY13e earnings estimate, EV/ Sales of 0.4x and EV/ EBITDA of 3.4x (FY13e). We expect companygenerate RoE of 22.1% in FY13e . Given 18% CAGR growth of its net profit over FY13 and RoCE of 27%, we set price objective of` 3(exit PE of 8x its FY13e earning per share of` 37.7).

    Buy

  • 8/6/2019 Pathfinder July 2011

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    Technical Markets Outlook

    Economic Data

    Nifty Monthly Technical Outlook

    Nifty ended the month up 87 points and closed positive at 5647levels, after making a low of 5196. Technically Nifty on montchart has formed bullish hammer candle stick formation with lolower shadow, which indicates sideways to positive trading ranbetween 5450-5940 at 23.60% retracement at 5378 levels. Omonthly charts Nifty finds resistance around previous top 5850-5940 and supports are placed at 5500-5400 levels. Somleading indicators like MACD, RSI and Momentum indicators neutral zone, whereas buying pressure at support zone when

    occurs, so Nifty would continue till 5850-5950 levels. If Nibreaks below 5370, Nifty can take next area of supports 5205070 levels. Nifty is trading in a rising channel and heading towarresistance at 5850-5950 levels. In wide range Nifty has gosupports at 5400 and resistance at 6000. Stochastic and the RSI overbought but remain sideways trading possible in short-terOne can accumulate stocks around supports with stop loss 5370 on closing basis. For short term trading long potions, stloss of 5370 is advisable on closing basis. If Nifty crosses lowbelow 5370 levels, it may take target 5200 and 5100 on lower levas well.

    Source : Iris

    Technical Market Outlook

    8

    USA, July 2011

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    July 08 - Unemployment Rate, JUN, Survey 9.00%, Prior 9.10%

    July 08 - Wholesale Inventories, MAY, Survey 0.60%, Prior 0.80%

    July 09 - Consumer Credit, MAY, Survey $5.000B, Prior $6.247bn

    July 12 - Trade Balance, MAY, Prior -$43.7bn

    July 13 - Import Price Index (MoM), JUN, 0.20%

    July 13 - Minutes of FOMC Meeting

    July 13 - Monthly Budget Statement, JUN, Prior -$57.6bn

    July 14 - Producer Price Index (MoM), JUN, Prior 0.20%

    July 14 - Advance Retail Sales, JUN, Prior -0.20%

    July 14 - Business Inventories, MAY, Prior 0.80%

    July 15 - Consumer Price Index (MoM, JUN, Prior 0.20%

    July 15 - Capacity Utilization, JUN, Prior 76.70%

    July 15 - Industrial Production, JUN, Prior 0.10%

    July 19 - Housing Starts MOM%, JUN

    July 19 - Building Permits MOM%, JUN, Prior 8.70%

    July 20 - Existing Home Sales MoM, JUN, Prior -3.80%

    July 21 - Leading Indicators, JUN, Prior 0.80%

    July 26 - Consumer Confidence, JUL, Prior 58.5

    July 26 - New Home Sales MoM, JUN, Prior-2.10%

    July 27 - Durable Goods Orders, JUN, Prior 1.90%

    July 28 - Pending Home Sales MoM, JUN, Prior 8.20%

    July 29 - Employment Cost Index, 2Q, Prior 0.60%

    July 29 - GDP QoQ (Annualized), 2Q A, Prior 1.90%

    July 29 - Personal Consumption, 2Q A, Prior 2.20%

    July 29 - GDP Price Index, 2Q A, Prior 2.00%

    July 29 - Core PCE QoQ, 2Q A, Prior 1.60%

    India, July 2011

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    July 07 - Food Articles WPI YoY, Jun 25, Prior 7.78%

    July 07 - Fuel Power Light WPI YoY, Jun 25, Prior 12.98%

    July 07 - Primary Articles WPI YoY, Jun 25, Prior 11.84%

    July 12 - Industrial Production YoY, MAY, Prior 6.30%

    July 14 - Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%, JUN, Prior 9.06%

    July 14 - Food Articles WPI YoY, Jul 02

    July 14 - Fuel Power Light WPI YoY, Jul 02

    July 14 - Primary Articles WPI YoY, Jul 02

    July 21 - Food Articles WPI YoY, Jul 09

    July 21 - Fuel Power Light WPI YoY, Jul 09

    July 21 - Primary Articles WPI YoY, Jul 09

    July 26 - India REPO Cutoff Yld, Jul 26, Prior 7.50%

    July 26 - Cash Reserve Ratio, Jul 26, Prior 6.00%

    July 26 - Reverse Repo Rate, Jul 26, Prior 6.50%

    July 28 - Food Articles WPI YoY, Jul 16

    July 28 - Fuel Power Light WPI YoY, Jul 16

    July 28 - Primary Articles WPI YoY, Jul 16

  • 8/6/2019 Pathfinder July 2011

    11/20

    Outlook

    Nifty traded highly volatile in the June series. Series began with Fbuying in the first week, but weak global markets and economic dforced investors to sell stocks. Nifty recovered in the last week heavy FII inflows and gained 4.34% from May to June series. The camarket series opened at 5413.70, made a low at 5195.90, high5657.90 and closed at 5647.40. Short covering by call sellers ahelped Nifty gain further. The July series is likely to see more upsidin midcap and smallcap sectors. Sugar, Fertilizer FMCG, Bankstocks look good for short term upside. Nifty is likely to consolidatethe 5400-5700 region before any breakout.

    Derivative Market Outlook

    9

    Index Future Analysis

    Change in OI

    Sector Wise Roll Over And Volume Change

    Change inPrice - Future

    Top Five Gainers- Price

    Nifty 5412.35 5647.2 4.34%

    VIX 19.18% 18.41% -4.01%

    PCR 0.97 1.03 6.19%

    30th-Jun Change26th-May

    Market Statistics

    Roll Over Change in GDQ

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    0

    0.1

    0.2

    0.3

    0.4

    0.5

    0.6

    Auto

    Bank

    CapitalGoods

    Cement

    Chem&Fert

    FMCG

    Hotel

    Infra IT

    Logistics

    Media

    Metal&Mining

    Misc

    Oil&Gas

    Pharma

    Power

    Realty

    Sugar

    Telecom

    Textiles

    -4000000

    -3600000

    -3200000

    -2800000

    -2400000

    -2000000

    -1600000

    -1200000

    -800000

    -400000

    0

    400000

    CNXIT

    BAN

    KNIFTY

    MININIFTY

    NIFTYMCAP50

    NIFTY

    ChangeinOIandVolume

    Change in OI Change in Volume

    6300

    Index Option Analysis

    0

    2000000

    4000000

    6000000

    8000000

    10000000

    12000000

    14000000

    16000000

    18000000

    20000000

    5000

    5100

    5200

    5300

    5400

    5500

    5600

    5700

    5800

    5900

    6000

    6100

    6200

    OpenInterest

    Strike

    CE PE

    (10,000,000)

    (8,000,000)

    (6,000,000)

    (4,000,000)

    (2,000,000)

    -

    2,000,000

    4,000,000

    6,000,000

    8,000,000

    10,000,000

    12,000,000

    14,000,000

    16,000,000

    5000

    5100

    5200

    5300

    5400

    5500

    5600

    5700

    5800

    5900

    6000

    6100

    6200

    6 3 0 0

    OpenInterest

    Strike

    Lowest Roll Over

    PATNI 23.61% IT

    SUNTV 24.38% Media

    BRFL 26.23% Textiles

    YESBANK 29.21% Bank

    SOBHA 30.22% Realty

    Roll Over Sector

    H ighest Roll Over

    RUCHISOYA 91.68% Misc

    MCLEODRUSS 87.34% FMCGPIRHEALTH 86.80% Pharma

    TATAMTRDVR 83.99% Auto

    DCHL 83.04% Media

    Roll Over SectorTop Five Losers- Price

    Change inPrice - Future

    GTL -77.93%GTLINFRA -54.38%

    LITL -28.13%

    TATAMTRDVR -15.18%

    SRTRANSFIN -14.23%

    PUNJLLOYD 40.24%

    BATAINDIA 33.48%

    TTML 31.85%

    PANTALOONR 23.61%

    KTKBANK 22.43%

    Index

    CE PE

  • 8/6/2019 Pathfinder July 2011

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    Source: Accord Fin tech for All MF Data

    Pick of the month

    H DFC Mid - Cap Opportunities Fund

    H DFC Top 200 Fund

    HDFC Mid - Cap Opportunities Fund is an open end equity MCap scheme, the aim of the fund is to generate long-term cap

    appreciation from a portfolio that is substantially constituted

    equity and equity related securities of small and mid-c

    companies. The last 1 year return stands at 13.68% (Absolute) a

    12.75% (CAGR).Since inception. Major investments of nea

    15.70% are in Pharmaceuticals & Drugs and 9.8% in Au

    Ancillary.

    HDFC Top 200 Fund is open end equity Large cap Scheme,

    generate long term capital appreciation from a portfolio of equ

    and equity linked instruments. The investment portfolio for equ

    and equity linked instruments will be primarily drawn from t

    companies in the BSE 200 Index. The last 1 year return stands

    9.77% (Absolute) and 22.86% (CAGR).Since inception. Ma

    investments of nearly 12.20% are in Bank - Public, 9.9% are

    Bank Private and 9.9% in IT Software.

    Mutual Fund round up

    10

    NAV04-July-2011

    Return(%)

    Scheme Nam e

    India Advantage Fund 211.13 -4.41

    L&T Small Cap(G) 4.82 -3.62

    SBI Magnum Comma(G) 23.80 -2.86

    Sundaram S.M.I.L.E Fund(G) 30.52 -2.65

    HSBC Midcap Equity(G) 19.6 -2.44

    Top Laggards : Equity Diversified Category

    NAV04-July-2011

    Return(%)

    Scheme Nam e

    SBI Magnum Emerging Businesses(G) 43.15 5.01

    Birla SL India GenNext(G) 25.89 4.55

    Birla SL Buy India(G) 42.42 3.90Religare Mid Cap(G) 14.86 3.07

    Religare Mid N Small Cap(G) 14.88 2.78

    Top Movers : E quity Diversified Category

    Top Performer across category

    NAV04-July-2011

    Return(%)

    Scheme N ame

    Tata Infrastructure Tax Saving(G) 15.26 105.71

    ICICI Pru FMCG(G) 74.48 6.66

    Sahara ST Bond(G) 12.09 5.19

    SBI Magnum Emerging Businesses(G) 43.15 5.01

    Birla SL India GenNext(G) 25.89 4.55

    5000

    5100

    5200

    5300

    5400

    5500

    5600

    5700

    -1000

    -500

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    1-Jun

    2-Jun

    3-Jun

    6-Jun

    7-Jun

    8-Jun

    9-Jun

    10-Jun

    13-Jun

    14-Jun

    15-Jun

    16-Jun

    17-Jun

    20-Jun

    21-Jun

    22-Jun

    23-Jun

    24-Jun

    27-Jun

    28-Jun

    29-Jun

    30-Jun

    NIFTYFIIs in Cr

    FII Nifty

    Equity Debt-30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    1-Jun

    3-Jun

    7-Jun

    9-Jun

    13-Jun

    15-Jun

    17-Jun

    21-Jun

    23-Jun

    27-Jun

    29-Jun

    Billions

    MF Activity

    Nifty Vs FII Equity inflows

  • 8/6/2019 Pathfinder July 2011

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    Insurance

    1

    Kotak Capital Multiplier Plan

    Policy Terms?Minimum - 5 yrs & Maximum - 30 yrs

    Entry Age Minimum Maximum

    Entry Age 18 yrs 60 yrsMaturity Age 23 yrs 65 yrs

    ObjectiveThe Kotak Capital Multiplier Plan is a participating plan that is builtin such a way that it allows your money to multiply, and gives you theflexibility of using this money the way you need it, in regularwithdrawals. This is an endowment plan, which is very flexible, andhas a lot of other in-built benefits.

    Benefits

    Tax BenefitSection 80C, 10(10D) of Income Tax Act would apply. Premiumspaid for Critical Illness Benefit qualify for benefits under Section80D.

    Death BenefitDuring the build-up phase: - In the event of unfortunate deayour beneficiary would get the higher of basic sum assured (l

    premiums due but not paid) or Accumulation Account. addition, 10% of the basic sum assured and the highest of all lumsum injections made and the Supplementary AccumulatiAccount will also be paid. During the withdrawal phase :- In tevent of unfortunate death, your beneficiary would get 10% of tbasic sum assured upto 75 years of life assured's age and tbalance in the Accumulation Account (into which tSupplementary Accumulation Account is added).

    Maturity Benefit

    Top Up Premium

    Premium

    Minimum Premium

    Top Up Premium

    Premium Payment

    This is a participating plan and you are entitled to the higher of tbasic sum assured or the Accumulation Account on maturity alo

    with the balance in the Supplementary Accumulation Account.

    In case you have any surplus funds you may invest them at anytiin the policy. This facility of lump sum injections allows youaugment your savings in the build-up phase, in addition to tregular premiums. A Supplementary Accumulation Accountcreated to hold these lump sums. Funds in Top-Up Accoucontinue to earn bonus at the same rate as that of tAccumulation Account.

    ` 10, 000 p.a

    Min - ` 10,000.Max - 25% of basic sum assured during policy yea

    Annual, Half-yearly, Quarterly or Monthly.

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    The minimum age at entry is 18 years and maximum age at

    entry is 60 years.

    You have the option of paying premiums in quarterly, half-

    yearly or yearly installments.You have the benefit of a 15-day free look period.

    Section 80C, 10(10D) of Income Tax Act would apply.

    Premiums paid for Critical Illness Benefit qualify for benefits

    under Section 80D. These benefits are as per the currently

    prevailing tax regulations.

    You can choose to start making withdrawals from the vesting

    age, subject to a maximum of 65 yrs.

    Accumulate more through the bonuses declared regularly by

    the company

    Invest your surplus monies top-up premium

    Key Features

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    In one of the most awaited events by the bond market in the month

    of June ,RBI Continued it's policy of monetary tightening owing to

    Inflationary pressures and increased repo rate & reverse repo by 25

    bps to 7.5% & 6.5% respectively, and the marginal standing facility

    (MSF) rate to 8.5% with immediate effect. However, it retained cash

    reserve ratio at 6% in it's mid quarter policy review announced on

    16th June 2011.

    In one more important development during the month of June

    which will have an immediate impact on Inflation, the Government

    of India (GoI) has announced an 8 to 22% hike in prices of diesel,

    liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for domestic use and kerosene. The

    price hike has made diesel dearer by ` 3 litre (+7.9%); kerosene

    by ` 2 per litre (+22%) and cooking gas by ` 50 per 14.2 kg cylinder

    (+14.4%). Simultaneously, custom duty on crude oil and all

    petroleum products have been removed which until now was levied

    at 5%. Further, import duties on petrol and diesel have been

    reduced from 7.5% to 2.5% and excise duty on diesel has been

    reduced o ` 2 per litre from ` 4.6 per litre currently.

    Post the recent rate hike by the RBI, rates at the shorter end of theyield curve has fallen like nine pins. There is a broad consensus in

    the market place that yields have peaked off for now as we would

    likely be at the fag end of the monetary tightening cycle. Liquidity in

    the banking System has tightened further i.e. the banking system

    which was borrowing from the RBI in Repo to the tune of around

    50,000 crore is now borrowing 80,000-90,000 cr due to advance tax

    outflows . There was apprehension that Marginal Standing Facility

    (MSF) would be availed of by banks to fund the liquidity shortfall

    which would take the overnight rates to 8.5% and above. This

    phenomenon was short lived and despite the actual tightness

    coming, yields in the 3m rates have fallen sharply (currently at

    around 8.5% levels). 1 year rates have also eased off by 20-30 bps.

    We have a structural liquidity deficit of around 55,000-60,000 crore

    which needs to be funded and only possible ways to fund the same

    is either thru cut in CRR or OMO (Open market operations) or

    intervention in forex market. Though we believe that OMO in the

    second half could alleviate some liquidity concerns, the same could

    stoke inflation and hence not a very preferred option. Hence for

    now, we would expect normalized liquidity conditions (as stated in

    the deficit band above) to prevail, which would mean overnight

    rates are likely hover around 7.5%.

    We continue to believe that the RBI will raise policy rates by another25 bps as it does not expect inflation to taper off in the next 3-4

    months. The RBI's move so far has been largely in line with the

    market expectations. Yields have started to rally as market

    participants look at nearing the top of an interest rate cycle. While it

    will be largely driven by future inflation numbers, it is quite possible

    that the RBI will pause after the next rate hike to see the impact of

    its previous action on the economy.

    Reliance Mid term plan.Birla Sunlife Dynamic bond fund.

    per

    Our Outlook

    Investment Recommendations?

    ?

    Bond Market Outlook

    12

    Currency Market OutlookThe euro rose against the U.S. dollar in the month of June a

    headed for a second quarterly gain as Greece passed crucial bills

    avert immediate default and on expectations that euro-zo

    interest rates will rise again next week. Month-end flows al

    supported the euro, helping propel it to a three-week high abo

    $1.45. The euro also climbed to a 15-month high against a broa

    weaker sterling and jumped to a two-week high versus the Sw

    franc. Greece approved detailed austerity and privatization billsa crucial vote to secure emergency international aid. But longterm dangers still lurk with credit insurance markets pricing in

    80 percent chance of Greece defaulting within five years. The IC

    dollar index .DXY, which tracks its performance against a bask

    of currencies, was down 0.45 percent in the month of Ju

    2011.The euro had touched a four-week high against the dollar

    the start of the month on growing optimism over a fresh aid d

    for Greece, and the greenback remained under pressure as U

    data's continued to reflect a slowing economic recove

    Expectation was that a slowing economic recovery could sway F

    policy and would prompt it to keep rates low for a longer period

    time. That would contrast with the European Central Bank, whraised rates in early April and several more rate increases a

    expected this year to combat inflation. These rate differentials a

    a primary reason for the euro's 7.7 percent gain against the dol

    this year. The euro has risen more than 3 percent from a tw

    month low against the dollar struck on May 23, on expectatio

    that Greece will put in place austerity measures and go ahead w

    plans to privatize assets to ensure aid flowing from the IMF. A

    the recent spate of disappointing U.S. data, ranging from t

    factory sector to the labor market, has darkened the U

    economy's outlook and made the dollar less appealing than high

    yielding currencies. The data coincides with worries about the e

    of the Fed's second round of quantitative easing known as QEthe $600 billion asset purchase program was launched to stimul

    the economy. Investors fear its removal could hinder recovery. B

    in the middle of the month the euro tumbled more than 1 perceagainst the dollar and yen as fears over Greece's debt returned

    the forefront and investors curbed expectations about t

    European Central Bank's interest-rate hikes. The euro fell after t

    European Central Bank kept its 2012 inflation forec

    unchanged, suggesting the pace of euro zone interest rate hik

    may be slower than previously thought. Greece worries a

    weighed on the euro after Moody's said it would be tough

    imagine private creditors participating voluntarily in a de

    restructuring. The ECB stuck to its 2012 inflation outloosurprising investors who had been expecting them to fl

    increasing price pressures. Markets have been scaling back rate-r

    expectations since last week, when a third increase was anticipat

    before the year is out. We think the euro is overvalued given t

    weak fundamentals in the euro zone and believe levels above $1

    will be aggressively sold into. The Indian rupee weakened in t

    June-quarter, ending a three straight quarterly rise, as local sha

    dragged, but the euro's surge during the period helped limit t

    fall. Global oil prices and progress of the south-west monso

    would be a key to the rupee's direction in the Q3.

  • 8/6/2019 Pathfinder July 2011

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    About Supertech

    About Supertech North Eye

    Supertech Group, founded in 1988, has set new trends and benchmarks of architectural excellence in the contemporary global scenario. AISO 9001:2000 certified company; Supertech has successfully completed 20 years in real estate business and today it has revolutionized th

    real estate arena. Under the dynamic and pragmatic leadership of Mr. R.K.Arora, Chairman & CMD and experienced Board MembeSupertech Group is scaling new heights and touched the horizon of excellence. Their vision and entrepreneurial acumen and have taken tgroup to the greater heights.

    Supertech North Eye is new launched project of Supertech Group. Supertech North Eye is thenew part of Supertech Cape Town. Supertech North Eye residential apartment's project is locatedat Sector 74 Noida. SupertechNorth Eye offers affordableluxurious Apartments & Flats.S u p e r t e c h No r t h E y eapartments available ataffordable price. SupertechNorth Eye flats offers to alllots of amenities & facilities inthe project such as ShoppingMall, School, Hospital, Hotel,Plotted Development, Hi-risecondos, second inning homeinside, Swimming Pool andmuch more. Admittedly notfor everyone, SupertechNorth Eye at Supertech CapeTown is the ultimate, limited edition living experience. Each apartment isunique and captures the spirit. Supertech North Eye available at very

    affordable price, these expandable flats gives you the flexibility and spaceto choose how and when to shape it to match your lifestyle.

    Supertech North Eye Location:Supertech North Eye residential flats project is located at Sector 74 Noida.Supertech North Eye Type: 2 BHK, 3 BHK & 4 BHK fully furnishedapartments.Supertech North Eye Starting Price (Rate): 25.16 Lacs onwards.

    Real Estate Opportunities

    Supertech North Eye Sec- 74, Noida

    1

    Supertech North Eye Features:

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    What's Special - Man-made lakes

    Beaches, Recreation centers, Vaastu friendly fengshui layout & design

    Pleasurable greens and a lot more all around, Convenience Stores.

    Prime land at Sector 74, a part of grand civilization, Supertech Cape Town.

    Fully furnished apartments, Available in 2 BHK, 3 BHK & 4 BHK fully furnished luxurious apartments.

    World class amenities like manmade beach and lake, lush-green landscaping, fully loaded recreational centre with Gym, Squash Courts.

    Shopping Mall, School, Hospital, Hotel, Plotted Development, Hi-rise condos, second inning home inside, Swimming Pool and much more

  • 8/6/2019 Pathfinder July 2011

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    About RNA Corp

    About RNA METROPOLIS

    RNA Corp, earlier known as RNA Builders (A.A.), is one of India's leading property

    development companies with over two decades of experience in offering solutions

    to individuals and corporate customers. With key focus on client requirements, thegroup has a bouquet of projects across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Over the

    last decade, the contribution to Residential and Mixed-Use Real Estate in Mumbai is

    quantified by 10 million sq. ft of completed developments, while a substantial

    development is already in the pipeline.

    RNA Metropolis is one of the popular Residential Developments in Sewri of

    Mumbai. . More than 50 storeys of centrally located premium residences. Standing

    tall in South Mumbai's fast developing corner. The landscape is beautiful with

    spacious Houses.

    Real Estate Opportunities

    RN A ME TROPOLIS Sewri,Mum bai

    14

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    Stilt + 14 Levels of Podium Parking + 1 Levels Club House+ 1 Level

    of e deck

    Wing A & C- 41 Residential Floors

    Wing B - 47 Residential Floors

    Easy access to both Central and Western suburbs

    2-3 kms from the business districts of Worli,Prabhadevi and Lower

    Parel

    Nariman Point, Fort and BKC business districts within easy reachITC Grand Central Sheraton - 1.5km < Parel Station - 2km

    Sewri Railway Station - 0.3km < Dadar Railway Station - 3km

    Schools and hospitals in close proximity

    Mahalaxmi Race course 5km

    Exterior Amenities?

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    GymnasiumTable tennisBilliardsBadminton courtSquash court

    JacuzziSteamSaunaMassage roomLibrary cum study areaYoga &meditation roomCyber cafBanquet & party loungeCafeteriaSwimming poolJogging trackMultipurpose hall

  • 8/6/2019 Pathfinder July 2011

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    wave of gold demand coming' mainly from emerging markeSimilar to India, gold has a special appeal to Chinese people arepresents luck and fortune. Apart from traditional belieheightening inflation pressure in China has also increased goldemand as a hedge against inflation. Headline inflation jumped+5.5% y/ y in May after moderating to +5.3% a month ago. Co

    inflation was also worrisome as it soared + 2.9% y/ y, acceleratfrom + 2.7% in April.

    Oil traded choppily, being dominated by the key theme of OPECmeeting on June 8. Uncertainties in this meeting increased afrecent defection of the Libyan oil minister and firing of tIranian minister. There have been speculations that the cartel weventually raise production quota in the meeting, after leavingunchanged for 7 meetings, as surging oil prices are damping gloeconomic growth. But the member countries failed to reach a dto boost output, quotas were announced to remain unchanged athis bolstered oil prices. The prices again slumped as Saudi Arasaid it would raise production to meet rising demand. The IEA

    monthly report showed demand upgrades from both 2010 a2011. However, without adequate supply in the pipeline, surgioil prices would risk a double-dip recession in the economy. TIEA reiterated that 'there is a clear need for OPEC to bosupply'. There are 'damaging implications' to global economySaudi Arabia and some other producers fail to do so. Concernidisruption in Libya, the IEA believed production can only recovgradually after the ongoing civil war but will not be able to retuto pre-war level of around 1.6M bpd until 2014.

    Technically MCX Gold contract for August delivery broke

    support of `21900 and is sustainably trading below the same. T

    bears required a close below `21900 to drag the prices down

    ` 21000.Support is at `21600 from where the counter can give a sligbounce back but the trend remains weak and the next near te

    target is at ` 21600-21000 levels. Resistance now is at ` 22000 a

    then at ` 22350 which would be a trend reversal resistance. MC

    Silver gave a false breakout above the 9 day MA of `54500 and f

    steeply in past sessions. Break of `53500 took it straight down n

    to `50000 which was our earlier target. On monthly chart a v

    good support is pegged at ` 50380 break of which might take

    counter down till ` 48000.Strong weekly resistance is

    `52000.NYMEX WTI Crude oil has broken the 200 day EMalmost after 8 months which is a bearish indicator. Bounce back ti96 a barrel is possible after the steep sell off in the previous f

    sessions. But the overall trend remains weak and the strategy shoube selling on rise. Support is pegged at $ 90 a barrel which if breaon daily closing basis the downside target would be $85 a barrel.

    MCX Strong support is at `4100, which if holds the counter mig

    bounce back till ` 4300-4350.If prices close below `4100 on wee

    basis then the next downside target would be ` 3750.

    15

    Commodity round up

    Commodity market sentiment was significantly and negativelyaffected by macroeconomic data and concerns over Greece's accessto funding at start of the June month. US' non-farm payrolls rose+54K in May, greatly missing market expectations of a +190Kaddition, after a downwardly revised +232K reading in April.Unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 9.1% in May from 9.0% in

    the prior month. The market had expected a dip to 8.9%. PMI datareleased sent a general perception that global manufacturingactivities are slowing down. The US ISM manufacturing indexsurprisingly fell to 53.5 (consensus: 57.5) in May from 60.4 in April.In China, PMI slowed to 52, the lowest reading in 9 months, in Mayfrom 52.9 in the prior month. The reading is, nonetheless, higherthan market expectations of a drop to 51.6. In the Euro zone, thefinal estimate of PMI was revised lower to 51.6 from preliminaryreading of 54.8. In April, the reading was 58. UK's PMI slowed to52.1 in May from 54.6 in April. Switzerland's PMI was a pleasantsurprise, unexpectedly rising to 59.2 in May from 58.4 in the priormonth. The US ISM manufacturing index surprisingly fell to 53.5

    (consensus: 57.5) in May from 60.4 in April. The global economicuncertainty pulled up precious metal prices and economicallysensitive commodities like base metals and crude were dumped byinvestors.

    Gold initially continued moving higher despite weakness in theeuro as investors sought safe-haven investments amid worrisomegrowth outlook and lingering sovereign debt concerns in theEuropean periphery. The initial driving force behind gold's priceswas the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech on US growth andthe ECB meeting. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a conferencein Atlanta on June 7 that US economic recovery remained 'uneven'and 'frustratingly slow'. The ECB left the main refinancing rate

    unchanged at 1% and said 'strong vigilance' is warranted on pricestability. The reference signals a rate hike is imminent in July. Thistriggered safe haven money into the yellow metal and thebenchmark COMEX contract tried to break the previous high of$1577/ Oz.The major news which was supporting gold waslingering sovereign debt concerns in the European periphery, inparticular the fate of Greece. Additionally, fiscal situation in US wasagain under the spotlight after Moody's warned that it would put thecountry's debt under review. But after a stiff tussle between thebears and the bulls the yellow metal finally slid as approval of theGreek austerity bill averted an immediate default and hencereduced demand for safe-haven assets. The yellow metalplummeted to 6-week low of $1478.3/ Oz. Silver followed gold andplunged to as low as $33.47/ Oz. US Quantitative easing has endedwithout follow-through of more money pumping measures whichis negative for gold as cheap money for gold investment evaporates.Support to the precious metals prices might come from physicaldemand after the seasonally weak 3Q and investment demand in thelonger-term. According to the World Gold Council, there's a 'tidal

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    16

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    FUND OVERVIEW

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