www.csiro.au

Fast Forward to Year 2025Four Scenarios Describing the Digital Marketplace for Queensland Government Services

Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

Data61 Strategic Foresight

1. Ice Cream

3. Car Trip2. ChildrenUse activity books and

games

Take normal

careEffective strategy not yet identified by humankind

Use serviettes

Does the strategy perform in most/all areas of overlap?

Scenario & Strategy Planning Concepts

Things That Could Happen on a family Holiday (3 scenarios and 3 strategies)

Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson4 |

Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what

day is the pond completely covered?

Image: Pixabay

5 |

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Pond

Cov

erag

e (S

quar

e M

etre

s)

Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered.

Frog Doesn’t Know Anything is Happening Yet

Frog Suspects

Something Happening

Frog realises what’s

happening & tries to respond

50% Coverage

Image: Pixabay

100% Coverage

6 |

Characterising the marketplace for Queensland Government services (e.g. health, education, transport, accommodation, community and other services) in the year 2025.

THE SCENARIOS

1. Heritage 3. Turbocharge

4. Stargate2. New Order

Horizontal AxisExtent of Digital Immersion (Deep to Shallow)

DEEP - The Data Explosion

Jun 2010

Dec 2010

Jun 2011

Dec 2011

Jun 2012

Dec 2012

Jun 2013

Dec 2013

Jun 2014

Dec 2014

Jun 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Thou

sand

Ter

abyt

es

Terabytes of data downloaded using fixed line broadband

And we’d need another 75m to show you the 2025 forecast.

According to IBM The world creates 2.5 quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the data was made in the last 2 years.

DEEP – Computing Speed19

71

1974

1982

1989

1995

1999

2003

2008

2012

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Tr

ansis

tors

(mill

ions

)

Moore’s Law – Number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost every 1.5 years

And then there’s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster …

Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually works. But maybe soon?

DEEP - The Internet of Things

20062 Billion Devices

201515 Billion Devices

2020200 Billion Devices

Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia

225 times more functionality

40,000 times more functionality

Metcalfe's LawValue of a network = n2

Wall-Ye VIN Robot Image Source: AFPSource: Wired Magazine

DEEP - The Reach of Robotics

DEEP - Task Automation and Job Replacement

“More than 5 million Aussie Jobs [40% of workforce] gone in 10-15 years”- CEDA Report, Australia’s Future Workforce, 2015

“By one popular estimate 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist”

- World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs and Skills, 2016

SHALLOW – What Robots Can’t Do

After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in …

20 mins.

The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube

Image source: Su-Star

SHALLOW – Photographers Versus Lab Staff

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Australian Photographic Industry

PhotographersDevelopers/printers

Empl

oym

ent (

'000

s)

Data Source: ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Out of every 10 Australians 6 have been a victim of cybercrime

Of all victims 46 percent experienced a cybercrime incident in the past 12 months

In 2013 A$1.06 billion was stolen from Australian citizens in cybercrime events

The average financial loss per victim in 2013 was A$201

5 million Australians fell victim to cybercrime last year

SHALLOW – Cybercrime, The Untamed Tiger

Australian Institute of Criminology

16 |

SHALLOW - Information

overload, digital exhaustion and

unplugging

.

Vertical AxisExtent of Institutional Change (Substantial to Limited)

Ronald CoaseRonald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.

SUBSTANTIAL – Time to Rewrite the Theory of the Firm?

SUBSTANTIAL - New Platform Economies

GLG

20 |

New Uber Drivers in the United States

A study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016

SUBSTANTIAL – When the Model Works, It Grows Quickly

SUBSTANTIAL – The Innovation Imperative & Organisational Redesign

World Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen

LIMITED – Can’t See the P2P Economy Yet (In Official Data)But it may be on its way?

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30% Casual employment by age group

20-2930-3940-4950-5960+

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60% Self-employment by age group

Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, detailed quarterly labour force survey

LIMITED – Hurdles Before the Global P2P Economy

Consumer trust

Government regulation

Competition from longstanding incumbents

Quality & reliability

perceptions

A plausible scenario is that in 10 years (the time frame for this study) the peer-to-peer economy has gone through a few expand-contract cycles but

isn’t too much bigger than now…

Public relations

LIMITED – Organisational Momentum

Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson25 |

Characterising the marketplace for Queensland Government services (e.g. health, education, transport, accommodation, community and other services) in the year 2025.

THE SCENARIOS

1. Heritage 3. Turbocharge

4. Stargate2. New Order

www.csiro.au

Data 61Dr Stefan HajkowiczPrincipal Research Scientistt +61 7 3833 5540e Stefan.Hajkowicz@csiro.au

Thank you