1April 11, 2023

ASSESSING ILUC EMISSIONS IN EU BIOFUELS LEGISLATION: EC-JRC and IFPRI COLLABORATION

Luisa Marelli

European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Institute for Energy and Transport, Sustainable Transport Unit

2April 11, 2023

JRC took IFPRI (2011) cropland expansion results and applied its own independent methodology

- to distribute land use changes onto different land types

− to estimate the resulting GHG emissions from changes in Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), Biomass carbon stocks and N2O (Nitrous Oxide) from mineralized soils

JRC Cropland Spatial allocation Methodology (CSAM)The new cropland is spatially distributed according to specific criteria such as: Historical trends on cropland expansion Agro-ecological suitability of the land for a given crop Proximity to similar crops Protected areas

1. Estimating GHG emissions from increased LUC

JRC and IFPRI used two different methodologies/databases but found similar GHG emissions

• Biomass carbon emissions mainly depend on fraction of deforestation, and values are very similar in the two studies

• Less loss of carbon from mineral soil in JRC analysis

• Peat emissions are far more important (about 50% of total emissions) in JRC work. JRC used a more updated value for peat emission factor.

JRC-SAM vs IFPRI Land use model: crop specific scenarios – Overall emissions

2. New Sensitivity Analyses on results of MIRAGE model [2011]

5

The three effects

combined

No expansion of

‘other oilseeds’ to major crops

2020 EU wheat yield corrected

Freeze food consumption

2020 EU wheat yield corrected

REASON

IFPRI 2011 projections of EU wheat yield in 2020 were much

higher than the DG-AGRI and OECD-FAO projections for the

same year

6

HOW

The EU27 wheat yield has been reduced in the baseline scenario

2020 from 8 t/ha in the 2011 report to 5.5 t/ha. This now matches the

AG-LINK estimates for 2020.

RESULTS

• Ethanol from wheat scenario is affected

• The resulting ILUC emissions and area are moderately higher than the 2011 values (+15% and +20% respectively)

2020 EU wheat yield corrected

REASON

IFPRI 2011 projections of EU wheat yield in 2020 were much

higher than the DG-AGRI and OECD-FAO projections for the

same year

7

HOW

The EU27 wheat yield has been reduced in the baseline scenario

2020 from 8 t/ha in the 2011 report to 5.66 t/ha. This now matches the

AG-LINK estimates for 2020.

RESULTS

• Ethanol from wheat scenario is affected

• The resulting ILUC emissions and area are moderately higher than the 2011 values (+15% and +20% respectively)

REASON

IFPRI 2011 work assumed that major crops could replace the crop category “other oilseeds”

as easily as any other arable crop. The JRC discovered that in

EU, this led to areas of olives being replaced by grains.

HOW

IFPRI has restrained the expansion of other cropping activities into “other oilseeds” for the EU. It

avoids the expansion of major crops into other oilseeds (such as olive

tree).

No expansion of ‘other oilseeds’ to major crops

RESULTS

• Slight effect on the final ILUC emissions for key EU commodities such as sugar beet, cereals and rapeseed.

• lLUC emissions increase from 0% to 29% compared to the IFPRI 2011 values

No expansion of ‘other oilseeds’ to major crops

RESULTS

• Slight effect on the final ILUC emissions for key EU commodities such as sugar beet, cereals and rapeseed.

• lLUC emissions increase from 0% to 29% compared to the IFPRI 2011 values

HOW

Food consumption is maintained constant in household and agro-

food sector demand

REASON

The crop-price increases cause a reduction in consumption (for food) as well as an increase in crop supply. This means that part of the crop needed for the biofuel comes from reduction in the other competing sectors, principally food consumption,

and this comes free of ILUC.

Freeze food consumption

RESULTS

• Compared to the 2011 report, several crops, except sugar beet and rapeseed, show an increase in GHG emissions

HOW

Food consumption is maintained constant in household and agro-

food sector demand

REASON

The crop-price increases cause a reduction in consumption (for food) as well as an increase in crop supply. This means that part of the crop needed for the biofuel comes from reduction in the other competing sectors, principally food consumption,

and this comes free of ILUC.

Freeze food consumption

RESULTS

• Compared to the 2011 report, several crops, except sugar beet and rapeseed, show an increase in GHG emissions

Combining the two main corrections on the 2020 EU wheat yield and the assumption on the expansion into other oilseeds in EU, the results are:

- Increase of annualised LUC emissions from 0% to more than 30% compared to the 2011 report values

Cumulative results

- Increase of cropland area from 0% to more than 30% compared to the 2011 report values

Combining the two main corrections on the 2020 EU wheat yield and the assumption on the expansion into other oilseeds, the results are:

Combining all the three effects (EU wheat yield, no expansion into other oilseeds in EU and freeze food), the results are:

- Increase of LUC emissions from 30% to almost 100% compared to the 2011 report values

Cumulative results

- Increase of annualised LUC emissions from 3% to 60% compared to the 2011 report values

- Increase of cropland area from 26% to 140% compared to the 2011 report values

- Change of cropland area from -24% to more than 70% compared to the 2011 report values

14April 11, 2023

• JRC work on IFPRI-MIRAGE model aims at reducing uncertainties in ILUC estimates and helping policy makers in understanding ILUC results

• JRC is also looking at other models and making comparative studies, but supports IFPRI work on ILUC as the most sophisticated for EU biofuels.

The JRC is the European Commission’s in-house science service, and it provides the independent science for policy decisions