Partisanship and Group Voting

POLS 4349Dr. Brian William Smith

Office Hours

• When– Today- 11-2– Friday 10-12– And by appointment

• Doyle 226B

Learning Outcomes I

• Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

• Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Readings

• Chapter 4: Partisans and Partisan Change (Flanigan)

• Chapter 5: Social Characteristics of Partisans and Independents (Flanigan)

Partisanship

Still the biggest factor in vote choice

The Evolution of the American Party System

• Comes out of the New Deal

• Focuses on the Role of Government

• Does not try to represent specific social classes

Why American Parties are Unique

• Non Ideological

• Not Issue Based

• Not Class Based

Why Not issue Based?

• Many Issues are Unimportant

• We adopt issues based on partisanship, not the other way around

• The Parties do not take clear positions on many issues.

The Goal of American Parties

THE SOCIAL COMPOSITION OF PARTISAN GROUPS

Winning by getting group votes

About Partisans

• Vote More

• Participate in other forms of politics

• Vote your way

• But who are they?

For Groups to Matter

• It has to be big

• It has to come out and vote

• It has to be Loyal

Neither Party Can Rely on a single group

• Both Parties are Heterogeneous

• Both Parties Must court independents

• Both parties move around the spectrum to gain votes.

The Roosevelt/New Deal Coalition

• The Democratic Key To Success- 1932-1964

• This Breaks apart over time

Group Voting Today

• For Most Americans No Single social or economic characteristic is a good predictor of Partisanship or voting (two exceptions)

• The Rise of cross-cutting Factors

Religion

• Americans tend to be more religious than other Western nations.

• We belong to churches and go more than other nations

The Change in Religion as a predictor

• There are many more religious divisions

• There is an increase in seculars/non-religious

• Some Religions are very politically active

Jewish Voters

• The Exception to the Rule

• Share many Republican characteristics, but are Democratic

• More liberal than other groups, except on Israel policy

• Meet all 3 criteria in 2 states

Catholics

• Still Trend Democratic

• The Result of political socialization

• Less homogenous, hence less predictable

Protestants

Evangelical• Tend to be more

Conservative, and more Republican

• More Rural, Poorer, and Southern

• More focused on Social Issues

Main Line• Examples: Episcopalians,

Lutherans, Methodists, Presbyterians

• Declining in number, influence and importance

• Difficult to Gauge

The Religion Gap

REGIONNot as exciting as it once was

Why Region is important

• It all goes back to Political Socialization

• We get basic economic and social traits based where live

• Region is South vs. Non-South in America

The Solid South

• A key component of the Roosevelt coalition– 11 states of the Confederacy Provided• 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in 1916• 47% of the necessary votes for victory in 1932• 31% of Kennedy’s vote in 1960• 43.7% for Jimmy Carter in 1976

– Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates- they could spend time in battleground states

Why Region is not as Important

• Mobility

• Communications

• Irrigation and Air Conditioning

Even the South is Less Distinct

• It is still the most distinct

• Out-Migration of African Americans

• More industrialized

• Influx of Hispanic Voters

SOCIAL CLASSNot That Important

Why not social class

• The shared belief in equality of opportunity

• We have never had an appreciable socialist movement

• People identify with other groups before class

Measuring Social Class

• We ask people which class they belong to– We are very likely to say middle class

• Within Social classes there are great variations in income

• Our partisanship doesn’t change with rising or lowering class.

Social Class and Partisanship

Republicans• Do better with poor whites in

the South

• Do better with Upper Middle Class voters

• Historically have done better with Middle Class voters

Democrats• Do better with poor and

working class

• Do better with the very wealthiest

• Do better with Union Members

AGEThere is a Difference

Not as Big a Deal

• Age is not as important as other factors in determining partisanship

• Young voters tend to be less interested in the system

• Young voters tend to be more Democratic

RACE AND ETHNICITY

The American Electorate

• Race is more important than class

• African Americans form a political self-conscious group. And Identify with the Democratic Party

African American Turnout

• This has increased since the 1960’s

• African Americans are heavily Democratic

• Important swing voters in battleground states

Hispanic Voters

• The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity

• Increasingly Democratic since 2000

• Key in CO, FL, NM