partho mishra


• Cost Effective Coverage and Capacity

Across different transports

Residential/Indoor/Outdoor

• Seamless Mobility

Removes friction from authentication, security, and roaming across access types

• Common Service, Control

Single platform for subscriber, service, policy

• Access Agnostic Services

Common services across different transports

© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 4 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index 2012

there will be ~5B mobile users

and ~10B connected

devices

Global Mobile traffic will grow ~13X from 2012

and 3X faster than fixed

broadband

Average mobile user to generate 2

GB/month and

traffic from tablets will grow 62X

Mobile video will increase 25X

and will be 67% of mobile traffic

By 2017…

Mobile cloud applications will

account for 84% of mobile traffic


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

7.4 EB

0.9 EB

11.2 EB

4.7 EB

2.8 EB

1.6 EB

66% CAGR 2012–2017

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017


2017

2.0 GB Traffic/month

2012

201 MB Traffic/month

1 Hour of Video

1 Video call

2 Hours of Audio

1 App Download

10 Hours of Video

5 Video calls

15 Hours of Audio

15 App Downloads




2012 2017 GLOBAL

Global MB per Month

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific

Latin America

Central & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Africa

201

752

491

136

122

200

73

2,037

6,171

3,343

1,788

1,411

2,327

990


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ex

ab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Latin America (LATAM)

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Middle East and Africa (MEA)

Western Europe (WE)

North America (NA)

Asia Pacific (APAC) 18.7%

47.1%

12.4%

7.6%

6.5%

7.7%

66% CAGR 2012–2017



Unique Conditions Affect Each Region’s Mobile Data Traffic Growth

Region # of Mobile

Users

# of Mobile

Devices/M2M

# of Users

2GB/Month

Avg. Mobile

Speed

Increase/4G

Connections

Mobile Data

Traffic

Growth

Asia Pacific 2.8B users

+5%

5.2B connects

+9%

593M 2GB users

+82%

+57% faster

+77% 4G

5.3 EBs/Mo

+76%

Central &

Eastern Europe

342M users

+1%

785M connects

+6%

106M 2GB users

+102%

+54% faster

+124% 4G

845 PBs/Mo

+66%

Latin America 494M users

+2%

940M connects

+6%

116M 2GB users

+105%

+62% faster

+175% 4G

723 PBs/Mo

+67%

Middle East &

Africa

849M users

+5%

1.6B connects

+7%

150M 2GB users

+218%

+68% faster

+179% 4G

861 PBs/Mo

+77%

North America 316M users

+2%

841M connects

+13%

146M 2GB users

+37%

+41% faster

+53% 4G

2.1 EBs/Mo

+56%

Western Europe 380M users

+1%

954M connects

+10%

138M 2GB users

+46%

+36% faster

+117% 4G

1.4 EBs/Mo

+50%


DS3/E3

Bonded

T1/E1

Ethernet

MSO/ Cable

Ethernet User to Network Interface (UNI)

Ethernet Network Network Interface (NNI)

COAX

Direct Fiber

WDM Fiber

Service Provider 2

TDM

Ethernet

Ethernet

Ethernet Ether

net

Ethernet

Ethernet

Ethernet

Direct Fiber

100Mbps/1Gbps/10Gbps

SONET/ SDH

PON Fiber

Ethernet

Service Provider 1

Ethernet

Ethernet

WiM

ax

Ethernet

Packet

Wireless


Late Majority

Waning

EoF

T

DM

Early Majority

Growing

Early Majority

Growing xD

SL

Early Adopters

Growing Eo

Cu

Innovators

Growing PO

N

Late Majority

Waning AD

SL

Early Majority

Growing VD

SL

Early Majority

Growing PO

N

Early Adopters

Growing EoF

Late Majority

Waning TD

M

EoF

Majority

Growing

MW

Majority

Growing

Innovators

Eo

Cu

Innovators PO

N

Innovators

Eo

Cu

Innovators

MW

E

oF

Innovators

PO

N

Business Residential Mobile

Macro

Mobile

Small Cell

Innovators

xD

SL

Innovators

© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 12 Source: Point Topic, 3Q12

• ~600M homes have broadband today and ~5% of those subscribers are served by fiber

• Majority of FTTH deployments have been in China for FTTB

• Globally, many carriers are still evaluating wide scale deployment

• Many countries have National Broadband Plans that have yet to begin, and many will eventually require FTTH or FTTB

GPON may serve majority

Many will require greater bandwidth and symmetric capabilities of P2P Ethernet (ActiveE)

© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 13 Source: Point Topic, 3Q12

Only Active

Ethernet provides

true symmetric

bandwidth


Current status: Today’s wireless technologies are close to the Shannon limit for best-effort packet data services. Additional licensed spectrum appropriate for macrocells is presently limited and expensive.

Two paths forward for higher air interface capacity:

1. The primary macrocell path is via spectral efficiency improvements by moving to higher SINR. This entails complex interference-reduction means, e.g., interference cancellation and inter-cell coordination (CoMP).

2. The small-cell path is via high spatial reuse (higher bps/km2), i.e., using very large #’s of small cells.

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 0

Average SINR (dB)

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sp

ectr

al E

ffic

ien

cy (

bp

s/H

z)

Do

wn

lin

k, B

es

t-e

ffo

rt d

ata

Shannon bound Shannon bound with 3dB margin

EV-DO 802.16e-2005 LTE similar

HSDPA

Physically

Inaccessible

Region

Figure from 4G Americas “HSPA to

LTE-Advanced: 3GPP Broadband Evolution to IMT-Advanced (4G)”

(Sept 2009)

Typical loaded macrocell conditions

Macrocell path to higher spectral

efficiency via higher SINR


Long-term solution: Separate layers of macrocells & small cells

Radius ~ 1-10 km

Macrocell layer(s) True seamless mobility

• Macrocells: large area, 2G/3G/LTE, semi-ubiquitous coverage • Larger cell means more users/cell (“lower spatial reuse”), hence lower

average rate per user • Designed for high-mobility voice with true seamless handover • Density ≤ 1/km2

Small cell layer Higher rates per user

• Picos/Femtos: Small/local coverage, 3G/LTE/Wi-Fi, targeted capacity • Smaller cell means fewer users/cell (“higher spatial reuse”), hence higher average

rate per user • Ideal for nomadic data service • Density ≥ 10/km2

Radius ~ 100-300 m

Small cell path to higher air interface capacity has potential for far larger gains and is technically simpler than LTE-Adv and CoMP.


44 41 54 48 48 54

16 18 12

15 15 16

19 19 15 17 17

14

21 22 20 20 20 15

US Canada UK Germany France Italy

In transit

Office

Location of Mobile Internet Use Percentage of Total Time Spent in Activity

Home

Other indoor

location

80%

Indoor

Use

Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2011, Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2012–2017


• Total Connections by 2015:

Microwave (various forms): 53%

Ethernet over Fiber: 27%

PON: 5%

EoCu (SHDSL): 1%

• New Installations by 2015:

Microwave (various forms): 45%

Ethernet over Fiber: 38%

PON: 12%

EoCu (SHDSL): 4%

Source: Infonetics Research, 2011


Enterprise

Small Cell

3G/4G/WiFi

Consumer

Broadband

Femto / WiFI

Macro

2G/3G/4G

Internet

IP Transport

Network Services

• Firewall / NAT

• Video/Traffic Optimization

• Enhanced Charging

• Content Filtering

• IMS Services

• Header Enrichment

• Application Det & Opt

• Traffic Control and Reporting

3rd Party Apps

Operator Apps

Orchestration, Control Function HLR / HSS

Abstraction Analytics SDP Policy

Mobile Termination

Small Cells Optimized BH Optimized Core Wi-Fi Integration

Gi/SGi LAN Services

Small Cell GWs

RAN Analytics

Small Cell SON

Macro SON

Hybrid SON

Consumer and

Enterprise

Wired Access

Broadband Termination

S/P-GW + MME

BNG


• Internet traffic continues to grow at an explosive rate

• Users expect to have ubiquitous connectivity and service consistency

• Service providers have to find cost-effective way to scale their network capacity and create new monetization opportunities

• Capacity requirements can only be met with increasingly fiber-rich access networks and small cell wireless access technologies

• Fiber-based access networks are technology neutral Fiber is a medium, not a technology

Technologies: Ethernet, PON, DOCSIS, wireless backhaul

Full technology independence can only be achieved with dedicated fibers per subscriber (point-to-point fiber topologies)

partho mishra

Documents

cisco andor

cisco confidential

gb users

cisco visual networking

mobile trafficwill

mobile cloudwill

3q12 confidential cisco12

3q12 confidential cisco13