park city utah real estate report
TRANSCRIPT
Rick J. Klein435 647 9055NMLSR 413601
Na#onal and Local Real Estate Review3rd Quarter 2013
Building Momentum
Rick J. KleinPrivate Mortgage Banker
NMLSR 413601
October 18, 2013435 647 9055
Park City Real Estate Sta#s#cs
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-0
7
Apr-07
Jul-0
7
Oct-07
Jan-0
8
Apr-08
Jul-0
8
Oct-08
Jan-0
9
Apr-09
Jul-0
9
Oct-09
Jan-1
0
Apr-10
Jul-1
0
Oct-10
Jan-1
1
Apr-11
Jul-1
1
Oct-11
Jan-1
2
Apr-12
Jul-1
2
Oct-12
Jan-1
3
Apr-13
Jul-1
3
# of
tran
sact
ions
Pended Sales: Greater Park City As of 9/2013
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
Land SFR Condos
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600
800
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1400 Q
3 07
Q3
08
Q3
09
Q3
10
Q3
11
Q3
12
Q3
13
Num
ber o
f Tra
nsac
tions
Greater Park City 1st 9 Mo. Comparison (as of 9/2013)
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
Condo Sf VL
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q3
2006
Q3
2007
Q32
008
Q3
2009
Q3
2010
Q3
2011
Q3
2012
Q3
2013
# of
Tra
nsac
tions
Pended Sales: Greater Park City 3rd Quarter Comparison
(as of 9/2013) Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
VL SF CO
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7 Se
p-07
No
v-07
Ja
n-08
M
ar-0
8 M
ay-0
8 Ju
l-08
Sep-
08
Nov-
08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9 Se
p-09
No
v-09
Ja
n-10
M
ar-1
0 M
ay-1
0 Ju
l-10
Sep-
10
Nov-
10
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1 Se
p-11
No
v-11
Ja
n-12
M
ar-1
2 M
ay-1
2 Ju
l-12
Sep-
12
Nov-
12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3 Se
p-13
# of
Tra
nsac
tions
Closed Sales: Greater Park City Number of Transactions
(as of 9/2013) Source: PCMLS/ Rick J. Klein
CO SF VL
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Demand!"#$%&'%()*"+
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200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400 Q
3 07
Q3
08
Q3
09
Q3
10
Q3
11
Q3
12
Q3
13
Num
ber o
f Tra
nsac
tions
Closed Sales: Greater Park City First Nine Months Comparison
(as of 9/2013) Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
Condo Sf VL
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 Ja
n-07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
# of
Tra
nsac
tions
Closed Sales: Greater Park City 3rd Quarter Comparison
(as of 9/2013) Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
Condo Sf VL
Momentum?
Rick J. Klein435 647 9055
NAR: Total inventory at the end of August increased 0.4% to 225M units which represents a 4.9 month supply at the current sales rate. Listed inventory is 6.3% below a year ago when it was a 6.0 month supply.
GPC total lisWngs October 1st was 1,160 a decrease of 5.6% from September and down 14% from last year. This is an all Wme low since January 2007. At current levels the absorpWon rate is 5.7 months which is also an historic low. The average absorpWon rate (ex‐lots) since Jan 2010 is 13.2 months.
Supply: Inventory
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
# of
list
ings
Active Listings - Greater Park City (Inventory as of first of the month)
October 1, 2013 Source: PC MLS & Rick Klein
VL SF CO
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0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-0
7
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-0
8
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-0
9
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-1
0
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-1
1
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-1
2
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-1
3
# of
Mon
ths
!"#$%&'$()*+,-.)/%-+,-%)0+%1)23,4)October 1, 2013
(Sales: 3 mo rolling avg.) Source: PC MLS and Rick J. Klein
Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Supply: 10/1/12 compared to 10/1/13
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
D0 NX CA 3&%-1
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26%
35%
45%
50% 48%
50%
58%
48% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013
% o
f Cas
h Sa
les
Cash Sales History Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
Cash Sales
Rick J. Klein435 647 9055
NAR: Distressed homes accounted for 12% of August sales, down from 15% in July and the lowest level since tracking began in October 2008. They were 23% in August 2012. 8% of distressed sales were foreclosures and 4% were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16% below market value in July, while short sales were discounted 12%.
GPC Distressed properWes accounted for 5.4% of Q3 2013 sales down sharply from 13.5% in Q3 2012. Distressed sales sold for 6% below market transacWons.
Distressed Sales
!"#$%&'%()*"+
,-.%/,0%12..J1./4,..,('I"&,.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
Q1
12
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
Percent of Distressed Sales Summit County Source: Summit County Recorder, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
Short Sale REO
Distressed Sales & Pricing
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
Sep-10
Oct-
10
Nov-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar-11
Apr
-11
May-11
Ju
n-11
Ju
l-11
Aug-11
Sep
-11
Oct-11
Nov
-11
Dec-11
Ja
n-12
Fe
b-12
Mar
-12
Apr-12
May
-12
Jun-
12
Jul-1
2 Aug
-12
Sep-12
Oct-
12
Nov-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb-
13
Mar-13
Apr
-13
May-13
Ju
n-13
Ju
l-13
Aug-13
Sep
-13
All Ex Distressed % Distressed right axis
Greater Park City Median Prices
6 month rolling average (as of 9/2013)
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Foreclosure Report - Wasatch County Source: Wasatch County Recorder/Rick J. Klein
Notice of Default Trustee's Deed
!"#$%&'%()*"+
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3456!%P]%,7-/27
Distressed
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 09
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
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$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Jan-01
May
-01
Sep-01
Ja
n-02
May-02
Sep
-02
Jan-03
May
-03
Sep-03
Ja
n-04
May-04
Sep
-04
Jan-05
May
-05
Sep-05
Ja
n-06
May-06
Sep
-06
Jan-07
May
-07
Sep-07
Ja
n-08
May-08
Sep
-08
Jan-09
May
-09
Sep-09
Ja
n-10
May-10
Sep
-10
Jan-11
May
-11
Sep-11
Ja
n-12
May-12
Sep
-12
Jan-13
May
-13
Sep-13
Greater Park City Median Prices 6 month rolling average
(as of 9/2013) Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
6 mo Median Price
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Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Q3 2013 Snap Shot
*Median ‐ 6 mo mean
*
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**Median ‐ 3 mo mean
Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Mortgage Rates
30 Year Fixed 5/1 ARM
Conforming 4.250%4.388% APR
3.000%3.046% APR
High Balance($600,300)
4.375%4.505% APR
3.625%3.258% APR
Non-Conforming 4.000%4.112% APR
2.500%2.850% APR
Rates quoted for a purchase transacWon w/one point (as of 10/18/13)
Conforming 15 year fixed: 3.375%; APR 3.620%
Rick J. Klein435 647 9055
May 2006 April 2013
Down 20% 20%
P & I $1,800 $1,800
Rate 6.500% 4.250%
Loan Amt $284,800 $365,900
Price $356,000 $457,400
Increase of 28%28%
Affordability
Rick J. Klein435 647 9055In Summary
Demand is robust. For the first nine months of 2013, closed sales are up 22% from the three quarters of 2012.
Supply is down by 14% from this Wme last year.
Property prices show sustainable appreciaWon. Median prices are 11% higher in Q3 2013 over Q3 2012.
The headwinds of foreclosed and distressed properWes are sWll evident, but have a minor effect in our market place.
Rates are great and your referrals are appreciated.