paris europlace 2007installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zrising...

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56 Alain-Pierre Raynaud Chief Financial Officer AREVA

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Page 1: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

56

Alain-Pierre RaynaudChief Financial Officer

AREVA

Page 2: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

57

AREVA AREVA atat a a glanceglance

Page 3: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

58

Breakdown of AREVA sales in 2006 (€10,863 MM)

AREVA is Nr 1 in Nuclear and Nr 3 in T&DAREVA is Nr 1 in Nuclear and Nr 3 in T&D

66%

N°1 worldwide in Nuclear€7.1 Bn

2006 market size:€25 Bn

Market share: 28%

34%

N°3 worldwide in T&D2006 market size:

€43 Bn

Market share: 9~10%( vs ABB: 24%, Siemens 18%)

€3.7 Bn

Geographic sales

33%

7%14%

29%

France

Europe (Excl. France)

Americas

Asia

Other

17%

2006 Sales by business

• No.1 in Europe and the US• No.1 in Plants / Fuel• No.1 in the Back End

Page 4: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

59

ChemistryEnrichment

Fuel fabrication

Reactors

Other sourcesof electric power

TransmissionDistribution

Spent fuelmanagement

RecyclingMox fuel fabrication

Services

Mining

59

NUCLEAR: AREVA harvests the fruits of its long NUCLEAR: AREVA harvests the fruits of its long presence on the whole nuclear cyclepresence on the whole nuclear cycle

• N°1 in Nuclear

• N°3 in the T&D

• 61,000 people

• 100 countries

Page 5: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

60

NuclearNuclear isis backback

Page 6: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

61Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase worldwideworldwide

Rising demand and tight market in the front endNuclear plant construction set to accelerate after 2010

Replacement: ~100 reactors / Additional: ~35-300 reactors

Closed cycle to become the standard in the back end

IAEA 2006 – HauteIAEA 2006 – Basse

WNA 2005 – Hyp. hauteWNA 2005 – Hyp. moy.

IEA-2006 – AlternativeIEA-2006 – Réf.

DOE-EIA 2006 – Réf.

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

740

679

524

414368

+ 13%

+ 101%

416438519

400 reactors to be built

135 reactors to be built

Installed nuclear generating capacity – Forecasts (net GWe)

Page 7: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

62T&D market to continue to grow at a sustained pace T&D market to continue to grow at a sustained pace over the next 2over the next 2--3 years3 years

Source: Internal AREVA analysis

Total market volume in € Bn56

35 36 35 3639

43

CAGR 01-04: + 2%

CAGR 04-06: + 9%

+ 11%

CAGR 06-10: + 6-7%

Actual

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Forecast

Page 8: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

63Our customers are consolidatingOur customers are consolidating……The example of western Europe: 50% of the electric utilities werThe example of western Europe: 50% of the electric utilities were acquired during the 2000e acquired during the 2000--2006 period 2006 period

106

42

43

6*1

94

Number of electric utility companies

20002006

Note

* Excluding city-owned companies

41

Page 9: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

64They are wealthy and announce a sharp rise in their They are wealthy and announce a sharp rise in their capital expenditurescapital expenditures

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004–2006 2007–2009

Upgrades to existing generating capacity

Development of new power generation capacity

Interconnections and upgrade of T&D grids

Annual operating Capex *

In billions of euros

Note* Source: AREVA estimates based on data published by our seven largest electric utility customers

+ 45% *

Page 10: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

65AREVA is the only fully integrated player on the Nuclear AREVA is the only fully integrated player on the Nuclear value chainvalue chain

2006 market CAMECO URENCO USEC AREVA

Toshiba / Westinghouse

BNFL / BNG MHI AEP

GE / Hitachi Others

Mining / Natural Uranium 65,000 t 15-20% 5-8% 20-25% 20-25% 25-30%

Conversion / Chemistry 61,000 t 20-25% 5-8% 25-30% 20-25% 20-25%

Enrichment 43m SWUs * 20-25% 25-30% 20-25% 20-25% 5-10%

Natural Uranium fuel (UO2) 6,800 t 30-35% 20-25% 10-15% 15-20% 10-15%

Reactors & Services €11 Bn 20-25% 15-20% 5-10% 10-15% 35-40%

Treatment 30,000 t ** 70-75% 10-15% 10-15% JNFL in future

Recycling (MOX fuel) 2,211 t ** 65-70% 1-5% 30% (Belgonuclear) JNFL in 2014

Bac

k En

dFr

ont E

nd

Recent strategic movesAtomEnergoProm

to be launched early 2008

Note* Separative Work Units** Cumulated, worldwide – AREVA Estimate

Page 11: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

66Drivers Drivers favoringfavoring the the AREVAAREVA’’ss integrated model integrated model are hugeare huge

Portfoliosynergies

FinancialMitigated risks

Lower volatility

HRAllocation

Expertise management

Attractiveness for talents

Commercialsynergies

Internationalrecognition

Long term commitment / customers security of supply

Customer access to recycling

Cross selling

Technologicalsynergies

Intelligent T&D networks

Gen III: fuel recycling connected to reactor’s design

Gen IV: fuel cycle interacting with reactor’s design

Nuclear revival & energy markets deregulation

External drivers favoring the AREVA’s integrated model

Tensions inFront End

Recyclingdevelopment

" Talents "battle

Energymanagement

systems

Page 12: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

67AREVAAREVA’’ss integrated offering: a solution for each integrated offering: a solution for each client client –– ExamplesExamples

Extraction Fuel Services Back end solutions

Examples

Reactors

JV or existing contracts

FL 3

OL 3

T&D

Ongoing discussions or negotiations

EPRs

US-EPR

ConversionEnrichment

Page 13: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

68

AREVA business modelAREVA business modelA profitable growth storyA profitable growth story

Page 14: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

69Main challenges for AREVA through 2011 Main challenges for AREVA through 2011 (Strategic plan horizon)(Strategic plan horizon)

2001 / 2005 Management of recurring operationsImprovement of margins in Europe

and growth in the US

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2020

2005 / 2009A period of significant Capex

ROI *

Period

Today

Maintain focus: improve profitability

of recurring operations

Profitable growth with operating

income target of > 10% of revenue

by 2011

Note* Return on investment

Page 15: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

70

AREVA generates strong cash from operating AREVA generates strong cash from operating activitiesactivities……

FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006

0 0 0

EBITDAWCR

Front end

R&S Back end

T&D Front end

Front end R&ST&D

Back end

R&ST&D

432

399

388

36

Back end

302

133

701

45

602

(14)

238

190

Page 16: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

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…… that permits to finance an important CAPEX programthat permits to finance an important CAPEX program

395

2005

Capital expendituresIn millions of euros

336

2003

1,500 +2,000 *

2007

344

2004

Σ > 5,000

2008-20112006

1,249

Mining projects (UraMin, expansion of uranium exploration programs)Construction of GB II enrichment plantNew uranium conversion facilityAcquisition: Sfarsteel, Ritz High Voltage, Passoni & VillaDesign certification of the US EPRPreliminary studies for a Generation III treatment and recycling facilityDevelopment of digital control systems / information systems for power grids

* UraMin acquisition

Page 17: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

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2007 and 2011 objectives2007 and 2011 objectives

2007

2011

Capture 1/3 of the world market in the nuclear business and €5 billion in T&D sales revenue

Achieve a double-digit operating margin

Reach a significant position in CO2-free generating systems

Strong sales revenue growth

Increase in operating income

Continued capital expenditures program

Page 18: Paris EUROPLACE 2007Installed nuclear generating capacity set to increase 61 worldwide zRising demand and tight market in the front end zNuclear plant construction set to accelerate

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Questions & AnswersQuestions & Answers