para politikasi
TRANSCRIPT
The World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings
Erdem Başçı
Governor
April 2012
Contents
I. The New Policy Framework
II. Rebalancing
III. Growth
IV. Inflation
2
THE NEW POLICY FRAMEWORK
3
A Different Sort of Problem
4
EU: Deleveraging
Turkey: Excessive Credit Growth
Against Excessive Credit Growth
5
Predominant Policy
Before August 2011 Macroprudential Tightening
After October 2011 Monetary Tightening
Policies: Post-Lehman
6
II
III IV
𝐘 (potential output)
𝛑* (target inflation)
Inflation
Output
Shock Outcome of monetary, financial & fiscal policies
Policies: Global Monetary Expansion
7
III IV
𝐘 (potential output)
𝛑* (target inflation)
Inflation
Output
I
Shock Outcome of monetary, financial & fiscal policies
Policies: Eurozone Crisis
8
III
𝐘 (potential output)
𝛑* (target inflation)
Inflation
Output
I II
Shock Expected outcome of monetary, financial & fiscal policies
2011Q4 – Present
Multiple Instruments, Multiple Objectives
9
Credit Policy
Reserve Requirements
Macro- prudential
Tools
Weekly Repo
Interest Rate
Policy
Liquidity Policy
Interest Rate Corridor
Funding Strategy
KEY INDICATORS
Financial Stability
Price Stability
OBJECTIVES INSTRUMENTS
Expectations
Credit Growth
Exchange Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CBRT Policy Rates (Percent)
The Average Cost of CBRT Funding (Percent)
Source: CBRT. Latest Observation: April 20 , 2012. Source: CBRT. Latest Observation: April 20, 2012
Liquidity Policy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14O/N Lending - Borrowing Interest Rate Corridor
ISE O/N Repo Rates
10
11
Source: CBRT.
Reserve Requirements
Credit Policy
Latest Observation: April 05, 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18The range of RRR Weighted average RRR
REBALANCING
12
13
Real Exports and Imports (2003=100, Seasonally Adjusted)
Rebalancing
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
100
120
140
160
180
200
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports
Imports
14
Rebalancing
*2012Q1 is forecast.
Final Domestic Demand and Exports (2008Q1=100)
Source: CBRT.
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1*
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Exports Final Domestic Demand
15
Source: CBRT.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2007-2011 average 2011
Total Loan Growth Rates (13 Weeks Moving Average, Annualized, FX Adjusted, Percent)
Credit Growth
Latest Observations: March 18, 2012
Exchange Rate
16
01.11.2010 – 22.08.2011 23.08.2011 – 11.04.2012
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Note: Positive change means depreciation against US dollar.
17
CPI Based REER* (Base year: 2003)
Real Exchange Rates
*Reel effective exchange rate, Natural logarithms.
Source: CBRT.
4.4
4.45
4.5
4.55
4.6
4.65
4.7
4.75
4.8
4.85
4.9
4.95
CPI Based REER
Trend
QE2 Policy Reaction
4.4
4.45
4.5
4.55
4.6
4.65
4.7
4.75
4.8
4.85
4.9
4.95
CPI Based (Developed Economies)REER
Trend
18
Source: CBRT.
CPI Based (Developed Economies) REER* (Base year: 2003)
Real Exchange Rates
*Natural logarithms.
QE2 Policy Reaction
19
CPI Based (Developing Economies) REER* (Base year: 2003)
Real Exchange Rates
*Natural logarithms.
Source: CBRT.
4.4
4.45
4.5
4.55
4.6
4.65
4.7
4.75
4.8
4.85
4.9
4.95
CPI Based (Developing Economies) REER
Mean
QE2 Policy Reaction
20
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Volatility in Emerging Market Currencies (Percent, Implied for the next 12 months)
Exchange Rate Volatility
*Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Indonesia, South Korea and Colombia.
Latest Observations: April 16,2012
5
10
15
20
25
30
Emerging Economies
Turkey
21
Source: CBRT.
*Short-term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credit and deposits in banks.
**Long-term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury.
Main Sources of Current Account Deficit Finance (12-months Cumulative, Billion USD)
Quality of Capital Inflows
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Portfolio and Short-Term*
FDI and Long-Term**
Current Account Deficit
GROWTH
22
23
Source: CBRT.
4.4
4.45
4.5
4.55
4.6
4.65
4.7
4.75
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1*
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Actual GDP (Base Quarter: 2008Q1, Seasonally Adjusted, Natural Logarithms)
Gross Domestic Product
*2012Q1 is forecast.
24
Source: MARKIT, TURKSTAT.
Latest Observations: March 2012 for PMI, February 2012 for IP.
Industrial Production and PMI in Turkey (2005=100, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly)
Soft Landing
127,53
49.6
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
IP PMI (right axis)
Capital and Labor
25
Fixed Capital Formation* (Percent, Ratio to GDP with current prices)
Labor Market Participation Rate* (Percent, Seasonally Adjusted)
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
*Annualized. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
26
Source: WEO, Turkstat, CBRT.
*Difference of natural logarithms.
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Annual Average Employment Growth* (2007-2010)
Employment
27
Source: CBRT
Prospects and Employment (Percent, 3 month moving averages)
Employment
59
64
69
74
79
84
89
94
99
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
Non-agricultural Employment / Labor Force
Employment Prospects (right axis)
INFLATION
28
Source: CBRT and Bloomberg.
Emerging Market Economies: China, Brazil, India, Mexico , Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S. Africa, Argentina, Thailand, Malaysia, Czech Rep., Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Ukraine, Vietnam, Chili, Peru, Egypt, Morocco, Lebanon and S. Arabia.
*2012 and 2013 end year values are from Consensus Forecast.
29
Inflation in Turkey vs. Emerging Markets (Percent, Weighted Average)
Inflation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Turkey
Emerging Markets
30
Inflation Expectations
Medium Term Inflation Expectations
Source: CBRT.
* CBRT Survey of Expectations.
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12 month 24 month Target Inflation
31
Source: CBRT.
* Shaded region indicates the 70 percent confidence interval for the forecast.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Per
cen
t
Forecast Range* Uncertainty Band Year-End Inflation Targets Output Gap
Control Horizon
Inflation Forecasts and Realizations
Summary
• Rebalancing between the domestic and external demand continues as envisaged.
• The highest level in current account deficit was seen in October 2011. The improvement will continue in the coming months.
• Growth will remain moderate throughout 2012.
• Inflation will peak in this month and it will fall significantly in May. The fall will resume and accelerate in the last months of the year.
• The Central Bank strictly prefers revising its policy stance to revising its inflation forecast.
• All policy actions will remain geared to attain the 5% inflation target by mid-2013.
32
The World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings
Erdem Başçı
Governor
April 2012