paolo beria, raffaele grimaldi, antonio laurino dipartimento di architettura e pianificazione
DESCRIPTION
The Italian intercity market model. Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione Politecnico di Milano Associazione Nazionale Autotrasporto Viaggiatori. CONTENTS. Long distance coach transport in Italy. Carachteristics of LD coach transport. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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Paolo Beria,Raffaele Grimaldi,Antonio Laurino
Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione
Politecnico di Milano
Associazione Nazionale Autotrasporto Viaggiatori
The Italian intercity market model
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
2
CONTENTS
Ideas for a future of the industry
Carachteristics of LD coach transport
Conclusions
Long distance coach transport in Italy
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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An unknown sector
Long distance coach services are almost unknown in Italy, despite its quantitative importance:
users usually only know the line they use;
non users often ignore the existence of a significant alternative network to rail services ;
public opinion ignores the sector;
public policies tend to concentrate only on rail. No specific policies for coach.
The industry in Italy is already mature and developed, even if liberalisation is expected to change and further develop it a lot.
This study, commissioned by ANAV and recently presented, tries to shed a light on the sector
Long distance coach transport in Italy
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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RegulationLong distance coach transport in Italy
“Interregional road services of State competence”
“Passenger services supplied by coaches on road, with undifferentiated supply, operated continuously or periodically on paths linking more than two regions” - D.Lgs. 285/2005
The sector was liberalised since 2007, moving from exclusive concessions to non-exclusive authorisations. Up to 31 December 2013 firms can keep existing concessions. A monitoring activity is foreseen to control liberalisation effects and avoid possible disruptive competition.
Local public transport (incl. 2-regions services)
Interregional services (more than 2 regions)
Charter services
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The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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Integration or competitionLong distance coach transport in Italy
Rail
Air
Bus and coaches
Bus and coachesAirRail
Strong core rail network + feeding buses(e.g. France, Germany, Switzerland)
Historical framework of long distance public transport in European countries.
Hierarchic / plannedModal competition
Competition among modes allowed(e.g.UK, Sweden, Italy future ...)
Bus and coaches
AirRail
Competition, but with areas of protection of rail
(e.g. Italy past)
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The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
7.000.000
8.000.000
ANAV coach companies Method:
Reconstruction of all 2011 services from timetables
Survey of 2010 data on supply (incopmplete)
Sample:
- ANAV companies which gave data for 2010;
- Only State competence services (no services among two regions).
* TRASPOL simulation on 2011 timetable
Bus-km 2010
Dato 2010 fornito (42 aziende)
Dato simulato da orario, linee stagionali escluse
2010 supply estimation: > 90 millions bus×km/year
More than 19 millions
bus-km
(estimated)
72,8 milions bus-km
(sccounted)
Long distance coach transport in Italy
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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National services in ItalyAssuming an average load factor of 30 passengers per vehicle, we estimate about 3.000 millions passengers-km.
Passengers 2010National coaches (own approximate estimate) ~ 3,000 mln. pax-km
Trenitalia medium-long distance: (Balance Sheet 2010)
- Market services- Subsidised “Universal Service”- “Non subsidised/non market” services
11,476 mln. pax-km7,012 mln. pax-km2,149 mln. pax-km
+2.9% since 2009
-18.2% since 2009
-10.3% since 2009
Total Trenitalia medium-long distance 20,637 mln. pax-km -6.7% since 2009
Long distance coach transport in Italy
Universal Service (Servizio Universale) is the name for subsidised long distance trains in Italy (see later). Subsides are directly awarded to Trenitalia (no public tenderings).
“Non subsidised/non market” are services that Trenitalia claims to be operating without subsides though loosing money. These have been kept (up to now) for political reasons.
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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Long distance coach transport in ItalyNational services in Italy
Graphical representation of weekly services, per region/geographical area.
1.Significant North-South services
2.Maximum number of services between Rome and the South
3.Important internal relations in the Centre and in the South
4.Limited services in the North.
(note: obviously, frequencies can’t be summed up, because of different paths)
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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National services in ItalyLong distance coach transport in Italy
Graphical representation of weekly services, per region/geographical area.
1.Significant North-South services
2.Maximum number of services between Rome and the South
3.Important internal relations in the Centre and in the South
4.Limited services in the North.
(note: obviously, frequencies can’t be summed up, because of different paths)
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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National services in ItalyLong distance coach transport in Italy
National coaches in Italy nowadays serve mainly:
1.Long distance services, in partial competition with rail and air transport
2.Medium distance services, where rail service is poor, uncomfortable (needs interchange, etc.), too expensive (HSR) or not existing at all
3.Tourist services (usually seasonal)
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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I servizi nazionali
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Freq
uenz
a se
ttim
anal
e pe
r dire
zione
Lunghezza linea [km]
Autolinea con vincoli salita/discesa
Autolinea senza vincoli salita/discesa
Marsala - Siena - Milano(Salemi)
Roma - Siena (Gruppo Baltour)
Roma - Macerata(Roma Marche Linee)
Roma - Fermo(Roma Marche Linee)
Long distance coaches cover the whole distance range (100 -1630 km)
Long distance coach transport in Italy
Wee
kly
freq
uenc
y, p
er d
irect
ion
Line lenght [km]
Line with restrictions (no in/out in some stops)
Line without restrictions
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The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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International services
Francia; 39
Romania; 35
Polonia; 28
Germania; 15Bulgaria; 14
Svizzera; 12
Spagna; 12
Marocco; 9
Belgio; 7,5
Repubblica Ceca; 7
ALTRI; 37
Frequenze settimanali per paese di destinazione finale
FranciaRomaniaPoloniaGermaniaBulgariaSvizzeraSpagnaMaroccoBelgioRepubblica CecaALTRI
10%
90%
Stagionalità
solo stagionale
annuale (con eventuali rinforzi)
Svizzera; 79,5
Francia; 67,5
Austria; 36
Romania; 36Repubblica
Ceca; 28
Polonia; 28
Germania; 26
Slovenia; 16
Belgio; 14,5
Bulgaria; 14
ALTRI; 74,5
Frequenze settimanali per paese attraversato
SvizzeraFranciaAustriaRomaniaRepubblica CecaPoloniaGermaniaSloveniaBelgioBulgariaALTRI
Long distance coach transport in Italy
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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CONTENTS
Ideas for a future of the industry
Carachteristics of LD coach transport
Conclusions
Long distance coach transport in Italy
Brussels , 29 February 2012
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Characteristics of LD coach transport in ItalyMain characteristics and comparison with other modes
Strenghts Extensive geographical coverage, even in very low density and dispersed areas
High flexibility and ability to fit changes in demand
Low costs and, as a consequence, low fares, without any public subsidy: the industry does not cost anything to the State
Commercial viability for direct services where impossible for rail because of low density of demand
Higher perceived personal security for passengers, especially on night services
Weaknesses Poor visibility, still developing and fragmented marketing policies
Low commercial speed, although good in terms of door-to-door for many relations. In congested contexts possible uncertainties on travel times Difficulty of movement on board requires stops on longest trips (further reducing commercial speed)
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The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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Example of geographical coverage in Puglia region (southern Italy) of services from northern Italy:
Marino network(not the only coach company!)
vs.
Trenitalia network
Main characteristics and comparison with other modesCharacteristics of LD coach transport in Italy
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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TerminalsThe attitude of local administrations towards terminals is differenciated in Italy:
hostility (terminals outside city centres, claiming to reduce congestion)
integration(terminals as a part of multimodal
interchange stations)
expulsion coachway interchanges city terminalsMarginality
Problems for remaining users
Progressive loss of users
Lower accessibilty and need for effective linking infrastructures
Marginality and lower visibility
Higher commercial speeds
Easier integration in the city
Good practices: Bologna, Roma Tiburtina TiBus (though claims for inadequate capacity), Catania. Partially good: Milano (good design, but distant from city centre).
Long diversion times
Higher visibility
Possibly difficult integration with the city structure
Characteristics of LD coach transport in Italy
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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CONTENTS
Ideas for a future of the industry
Carachteristics of LD coach transport
Conclusions
Long distance coach transport in Italy
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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New markets or consolidation of existing industry?Ideas for the future of the industry
Three perspectives for Italian market:
1. Consolidation of existing market, inside the new liberalised context
more efficiency
quality
2. Market expansion towards new users (generated or diverted from rail thanks to low fares)
new (and new kind of) services
marketing and communication
3. Integration/substitution of rail in the “universal service” (subsidised long distance trains)
political choice!
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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2011 Trenitalia “universal service”2011 National coaches
Trenitalia “rail universal service” Ideas for the future of the industry
Supply: 90 Mbus-kmPublic subsides: 0 €
Supply: 27 Mtrains-km (further reduction in 2012)Public subsides: 250 M€/y
Just changed & reduced… (Dec 2011)
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Il servizio universale TrenitaliaI servizi nazionali
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Freq
uenz
a se
ttim
anal
e pe
r dire
zione
Lunghezza linea [km]
Autolinea con vincoli salita/discesa
Autolinea senza vincoli salita/discesa
Treno
Roma - Siena (Gruppo Baltour)
Roma - Macerata(Roma Marche Linee)
Roma - Fermo(Roma Marche Linee)
ES Roma - Reggio C. (Trenitalia)
EXP Torino - Palermo (Trenitalia)
Marsala - Siena - Milano(Salemi)
Rail services (subsidised “universal service”) are almost perfectly superposed to national coaches: similar average frequencies, same
distance range!
Ideas for the future of the industry
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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Il servizio universale Trenitalia
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Freq
uenz
a se
ttim
anal
e pe
r dire
zione
Lunghezza linea [km]
Autolinea con vincoli salita/discesa
Autolinea senza vincoli salita/discesa
Treno
Air transport reference market: long distances,
at least daily frequencies
Coaches “exclusive” market
LD rail transport reference market: <800km services, high frequencies
Market “in competition” with rail “universal service”
Ideas for the future of the industry
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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Il servizio universale Trenitalia
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Freq
uenz
a se
ttim
anal
e pe
r dire
zione
Lunghezza linea [km]
Autolinea con vincoli salita/discesa
Autolinea senza vincoli salita/discesa
Treno
Field of potential (partial) substitution with
rail “universal service”
Ideas for the future of the industry
Air transport reference market: long distances,
at least daily frequencies
LD rail transport reference market: <800km services, high frequencies
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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Trenitalia “universal service” – costs estimate
U nit average costCoach company 1 1.40 €/bus -km DataCoach company 2 1.97 €/bus -km DataCoach company3 1.07 €/bus -km DataCoach company 4 0.96 €/bus -km DataCoach company5 1.17 €/bus -km DataCoach company 6 1.34 €/bus -km DataCoach company 7 1.82 €/bus -km DataCoach company 8 1.28 €/bus -km DataCoach company 9 1.35 €/bus -km DataCoach company 10 1.36 €/bus -km DataCoach company 11 1.10 €/bus -km DataCoach company 12 1.80 €/bus -km DataTrenitalia Eurostar(servizio universale) 25.00 €/train-km Estimate
Trenitalia Conventional LD train(servizio universale) 20.00 €/train-km Estimate Most likely higher
than market service costs because of less economies of density (scale?)
Data received from 12 firms (27 million km) suggest average unit costs of 1.34 €/bus-km (min 0.96 - max 1,97)
LD coach: 2.7 €cent/seat-km (50 seats/coach)LD train: 4 €cent/seat-km (500 seats/train)
Ideas for the future of the industry
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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A typical night train of the “universal service” in Italy nowadays often serve both as:
- InterCity service on short/medium distance during the evening and the morning among places internal to northern and southern Italy;
- long distance night service among northern and southern Italy.
In some cases, the reorganisation of existing services, separating functions, might allow for significant cost savings and, in some cases, for a better service, using different transport mode.
Although no disaggregated public data on patronage of those (subsidised) services are available, possible multi-modal reorganisations with combined rail, air and coach transport might require less subsides.
A new “universal service”Ideas for the future of the industry
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Estimated Trenitalia cost: approx 62 M€/year
Present situation:
4 daily night trains from Torino, Milano, Bolzano and Trieste to Foggia, Bari e Lecce
Nothing is known about demand
A new “universal service” - exampleIdeas for the future of the industry
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(one) Possible rationalisation:
4 InterCity trains, Torino + Bolzano + Trieste + Milano Rimini for commuters
3 regional trains Foggia/Bari Lecce for commuters
10 night bus lines to connect all O/D with no more than 1 interchange(example: Venezia - Padova - Terme Euganee - Monselice - Rovigo - Ferrara - Ravenna - Rimini (HUB) - Foggia - Barletta - Bari)
More complex, but sufficient to serve all relations. Estimated cost: 35M€/year instead of 62M€/year with rail. Room for possible additional services during peak days (also with train)
Note: bus lines on the map are not representative of the 10 simulated paths
A new “universal service” - exampleIdeas for the future of the industry
Brussels , 29 February 2012
The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop
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CONTENTS
Ideas for a future of the industry
Carachteristics of LD coach transport
Conclusions
Long distance coach transport in Italy
Brussels , 29 February 2012
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Inside the industry and towards the outsideConclusions
Coach transport will face significant changes in regulation inside and outside the industry. Starting from a deeper knowledge of itself, significant opportunities for change will be at stake:
- Evolution inside the industry;
- Evolution towards other markets.
In order to do so, it needs to adopt adequate technological tools (e.g. yield management) and learn from what happened in other industries, especially air transport, and abroad.
Brussels , 29 February 2012
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Inside coach transport…Conclusions
Ideas:
1.Overcoming focus of firms over their historical catchment areas to better take advantage of the liberalisation:
Many small markets a unique (bigger) Italian market
2. As for operating costs: in this sector “medium-small is better”!
But for commercial aspects: useful to consolidate on bigger average dimensions (difficult for very small firms to make advanced marketing). Better using consortia, to avoid cost increase typical of bigger firms.
3. Unique internet website, where users can find the whole supply, to be perceived as a unique network as for air transport (even without delegating the commercial functions).
Brussels , 29 February 2012
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… and towards the outside!Conclusions
Opportunity for completely rethink the concept of “universal service” (also because Italy needs to cut public expenses): ensure mobility all over the country, but not necessairly by train!
Example (but other outcomes are possible):
Subsidised trains (but even non subsidised!) relations with high demand and among major cities;
Coaches long relations with low demand, with polarised and dispersed demand (e.g. north-south) and to improve geographical coverage;
Busses medium-short relations with low demand;
Airplanes social (subsidised) fares on some long relations.
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Thank you for your attention!!!