paolo beria, raffaele grimaldi, antonio laurino dipartimento di architettura e pianificazione

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Brussels , 29 February 2012 The Italian intercity market model IRU Bus and Coach Workshop 1 Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione Politecnico di Milano Associazione Nazionale Autotrasporto Viaggiatori The Italian intercity market model

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The Italian intercity market model. Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione Politecnico di Milano Associazione Nazionale Autotrasporto Viaggiatori. CONTENTS. Long distance coach transport in Italy. Carachteristics of LD coach transport. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

1

Paolo Beria,Raffaele Grimaldi,Antonio Laurino

Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Politecnico di Milano

Associazione Nazionale Autotrasporto Viaggiatori

The Italian intercity market model

Page 2: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

2

CONTENTS

Ideas for a future of the industry

Carachteristics of LD coach transport

Conclusions

Long distance coach transport in Italy

Page 3: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

3

An unknown sector

Long distance coach services are almost unknown in Italy, despite its quantitative importance:

users usually only know the line they use;

non users often ignore the existence of a significant alternative network to rail services ;

public opinion ignores the sector;

public policies tend to concentrate only on rail. No specific policies for coach.

The industry in Italy is already mature and developed, even if liberalisation is expected to change and further develop it a lot.

This study, commissioned by ANAV and recently presented, tries to shed a light on the sector

Long distance coach transport in Italy

Page 4: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

4

RegulationLong distance coach transport in Italy

“Interregional road services of State competence”

“Passenger services supplied by coaches on road, with undifferentiated supply, operated continuously or periodically on paths linking more than two regions” - D.Lgs. 285/2005

The sector was liberalised since 2007, moving from exclusive concessions to non-exclusive authorisations. Up to 31 December 2013 firms can keep existing concessions. A monitoring activity is foreseen to control liberalisation effects and avoid possible disruptive competition.

Local public transport (incl. 2-regions services)

Interregional services (more than 2 regions)

Charter services

Page 5: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

5

Integration or competitionLong distance coach transport in Italy

Rail

Air

Bus and coaches

Bus and coachesAirRail

Strong core rail network + feeding buses(e.g. France, Germany, Switzerland)

Historical framework of long distance public transport in European countries.

Hierarchic / plannedModal competition

Competition among modes allowed(e.g.UK, Sweden, Italy future ...)

Bus and coaches

AirRail

Competition, but with areas of protection of rail

(e.g. Italy past)

Page 6: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

6

0

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

6.000.000

7.000.000

8.000.000

ANAV coach companies Method:

Reconstruction of all 2011 services from timetables

Survey of 2010 data on supply (incopmplete)

Sample:

- ANAV companies which gave data for 2010;

- Only State competence services (no services among two regions).

* TRASPOL simulation on 2011 timetable

Bus-km 2010

Dato 2010 fornito (42 aziende)

Dato simulato da orario, linee stagionali escluse

2010 supply estimation: > 90 millions bus×km/year

More than 19 millions

bus-km

(estimated)

72,8 milions bus-km

(sccounted)

Long distance coach transport in Italy

Page 7: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

7

National services in ItalyAssuming an average load factor of 30 passengers per vehicle, we estimate about 3.000 millions passengers-km.

Passengers 2010National coaches (own approximate estimate) ~ 3,000 mln. pax-km

Trenitalia medium-long distance: (Balance Sheet 2010)

- Market services- Subsidised “Universal Service”- “Non subsidised/non market” services

11,476 mln. pax-km7,012 mln. pax-km2,149 mln. pax-km

+2.9% since 2009

-18.2% since 2009

-10.3% since 2009

Total Trenitalia medium-long distance 20,637 mln. pax-km -6.7% since 2009

Long distance coach transport in Italy

Universal Service (Servizio Universale) is the name for subsidised long distance trains in Italy (see later). Subsides are directly awarded to Trenitalia (no public tenderings).

“Non subsidised/non market” are services that Trenitalia claims to be operating without subsides though loosing money. These have been kept (up to now) for political reasons.

Page 8: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

8

Long distance coach transport in ItalyNational services in Italy

Graphical representation of weekly services, per region/geographical area.

1.Significant North-South services

2.Maximum number of services between Rome and the South

3.Important internal relations in the Centre and in the South

4.Limited services in the North.

(note: obviously, frequencies can’t be summed up, because of different paths)

Page 9: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

9

National services in ItalyLong distance coach transport in Italy

Graphical representation of weekly services, per region/geographical area.

1.Significant North-South services

2.Maximum number of services between Rome and the South

3.Important internal relations in the Centre and in the South

4.Limited services in the North.

(note: obviously, frequencies can’t be summed up, because of different paths)

Page 10: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

10

National services in ItalyLong distance coach transport in Italy

National coaches in Italy nowadays serve mainly:

1.Long distance services, in partial competition with rail and air transport

2.Medium distance services, where rail service is poor, uncomfortable (needs interchange, etc.), too expensive (HSR) or not existing at all

3.Tourist services (usually seasonal)

Page 11: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

11

I servizi nazionali

0

7

14

21

28

35

42

49

56

63

70

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Freq

uenz

a se

ttim

anal

e pe

r dire

zione

Lunghezza linea [km]

Autolinea con vincoli salita/discesa

Autolinea senza vincoli salita/discesa

Marsala - Siena - Milano(Salemi)

Roma - Siena (Gruppo Baltour)

Roma - Macerata(Roma Marche Linee)

Roma - Fermo(Roma Marche Linee)

Long distance coaches cover the whole distance range (100 -1630 km)

Long distance coach transport in Italy

Wee

kly

freq

uenc

y, p

er d

irect

ion

Line lenght [km]

Line with restrictions (no in/out in some stops)

Line without restrictions

Page 12: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

12

International services

Francia; 39

Romania; 35

Polonia; 28

Germania; 15Bulgaria; 14

Svizzera; 12

Spagna; 12

Marocco; 9

Belgio; 7,5

Repubblica Ceca; 7

ALTRI; 37

Frequenze settimanali per paese di destinazione finale

FranciaRomaniaPoloniaGermaniaBulgariaSvizzeraSpagnaMaroccoBelgioRepubblica CecaALTRI

10%

90%

Stagionalità

solo stagionale

annuale (con eventuali rinforzi)

Svizzera; 79,5

Francia; 67,5

Austria; 36

Romania; 36Repubblica

Ceca; 28

Polonia; 28

Germania; 26

Slovenia; 16

Belgio; 14,5

Bulgaria; 14

ALTRI; 74,5

Frequenze settimanali per paese attraversato

SvizzeraFranciaAustriaRomaniaRepubblica CecaPoloniaGermaniaSloveniaBelgioBulgariaALTRI

Long distance coach transport in Italy

Page 13: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

13

CONTENTS

Ideas for a future of the industry

Carachteristics of LD coach transport

Conclusions

Long distance coach transport in Italy

Page 14: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

14

Characteristics of LD coach transport in ItalyMain characteristics and comparison with other modes

Strenghts Extensive geographical coverage, even in very low density and dispersed areas

High flexibility and ability to fit changes in demand

Low costs and, as a consequence, low fares, without any public subsidy: the industry does not cost anything to the State

Commercial viability for direct services where impossible for rail because of low density of demand

Higher perceived personal security for passengers, especially on night services

Weaknesses Poor visibility, still developing and fragmented marketing policies

Low commercial speed, although good in terms of door-to-door for many relations. In congested contexts possible uncertainties on travel times Difficulty of movement on board requires stops on longest trips (further reducing commercial speed)

Page 15: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

15

Example of geographical coverage in Puglia region (southern Italy) of services from northern Italy:

Marino network(not the only coach company!)

vs.

Trenitalia network

Main characteristics and comparison with other modesCharacteristics of LD coach transport in Italy

Page 16: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

16

TerminalsThe attitude of local administrations towards terminals is differenciated in Italy:

hostility (terminals outside city centres, claiming to reduce congestion)

integration(terminals as a part of multimodal

interchange stations)

expulsion coachway interchanges city terminalsMarginality

Problems for remaining users

Progressive loss of users

Lower accessibilty and need for effective linking infrastructures

Marginality and lower visibility

Higher commercial speeds

Easier integration in the city

Good practices: Bologna, Roma Tiburtina TiBus (though claims for inadequate capacity), Catania. Partially good: Milano (good design, but distant from city centre).

Long diversion times

Higher visibility

Possibly difficult integration with the city structure

Characteristics of LD coach transport in Italy

Page 17: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

17

CONTENTS

Ideas for a future of the industry

Carachteristics of LD coach transport

Conclusions

Long distance coach transport in Italy

Page 18: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

18

New markets or consolidation of existing industry?Ideas for the future of the industry

Three perspectives for Italian market:

1. Consolidation of existing market, inside the new liberalised context

more efficiency

quality

2. Market expansion towards new users (generated or diverted from rail thanks to low fares)

new (and new kind of) services

marketing and communication

3. Integration/substitution of rail in the “universal service” (subsidised long distance trains)

political choice!

Page 19: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

19

2011 Trenitalia “universal service”2011 National coaches

Trenitalia “rail universal service” Ideas for the future of the industry

Supply: 90 Mbus-kmPublic subsides: 0 €

Supply: 27 Mtrains-km (further reduction in 2012)Public subsides: 250 M€/y

Just changed & reduced… (Dec 2011)

Page 20: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

20

Il servizio universale TrenitaliaI servizi nazionali

0

7

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35

42

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63

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Freq

uenz

a se

ttim

anal

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r dire

zione

Lunghezza linea [km]

Autolinea con vincoli salita/discesa

Autolinea senza vincoli salita/discesa

Treno

Roma - Siena (Gruppo Baltour)

Roma - Macerata(Roma Marche Linee)

Roma - Fermo(Roma Marche Linee)

ES Roma - Reggio C. (Trenitalia)

EXP Torino - Palermo (Trenitalia)

Marsala - Siena - Milano(Salemi)

Rail services (subsidised “universal service”) are almost perfectly superposed to national coaches: similar average frequencies, same

distance range!

Ideas for the future of the industry

Page 21: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

21

Il servizio universale Trenitalia

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Freq

uenz

a se

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Lunghezza linea [km]

Autolinea con vincoli salita/discesa

Autolinea senza vincoli salita/discesa

Treno

Air transport reference market: long distances,

at least daily frequencies

Coaches “exclusive” market

LD rail transport reference market: <800km services, high frequencies

Market “in competition” with rail “universal service”

Ideas for the future of the industry

Page 22: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

22

Il servizio universale Trenitalia

0

7

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Freq

uenz

a se

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Lunghezza linea [km]

Autolinea con vincoli salita/discesa

Autolinea senza vincoli salita/discesa

Treno

Field of potential (partial) substitution with

rail “universal service”

Ideas for the future of the industry

Air transport reference market: long distances,

at least daily frequencies

LD rail transport reference market: <800km services, high frequencies

Page 23: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

23

Trenitalia “universal service” – costs estimate

U nit average costCoach company 1 1.40 €/bus -km DataCoach company 2 1.97 €/bus -km DataCoach company3 1.07 €/bus -km DataCoach company 4 0.96 €/bus -km DataCoach company5 1.17 €/bus -km DataCoach company 6 1.34 €/bus -km DataCoach company 7 1.82 €/bus -km DataCoach company 8 1.28 €/bus -km DataCoach company 9 1.35 €/bus -km DataCoach company 10 1.36 €/bus -km DataCoach company 11 1.10 €/bus -km DataCoach company 12 1.80 €/bus -km DataTrenitalia Eurostar(servizio universale) 25.00 €/train-km Estimate

Trenitalia Conventional LD train(servizio universale) 20.00 €/train-km Estimate Most likely higher

than market service costs because of less economies of density (scale?)

Data received from 12 firms (27 million km) suggest average unit costs of 1.34 €/bus-km (min 0.96 - max 1,97)

LD coach: 2.7 €cent/seat-km (50 seats/coach)LD train: 4 €cent/seat-km (500 seats/train)

Ideas for the future of the industry

Page 24: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

24

A typical night train of the “universal service” in Italy nowadays often serve both as:

- InterCity service on short/medium distance during the evening and the morning among places internal to northern and southern Italy;

- long distance night service among northern and southern Italy.

In some cases, the reorganisation of existing services, separating functions, might allow for significant cost savings and, in some cases, for a better service, using different transport mode.

Although no disaggregated public data on patronage of those (subsidised) services are available, possible multi-modal reorganisations with combined rail, air and coach transport might require less subsides.

A new “universal service”Ideas for the future of the industry

Page 25: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

25

Estimated Trenitalia cost: approx 62 M€/year

Present situation:

4 daily night trains from Torino, Milano, Bolzano and Trieste to Foggia, Bari e Lecce

Nothing is known about demand

A new “universal service” - exampleIdeas for the future of the industry

Page 26: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

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(one) Possible rationalisation:

4 InterCity trains, Torino + Bolzano + Trieste + Milano Rimini for commuters

3 regional trains Foggia/Bari Lecce for commuters

10 night bus lines to connect all O/D with no more than 1 interchange(example: Venezia - Padova - Terme Euganee - Monselice - Rovigo - Ferrara - Ravenna - Rimini (HUB) - Foggia - Barletta - Bari)

More complex, but sufficient to serve all relations. Estimated cost: 35M€/year instead of 62M€/year with rail. Room for possible additional services during peak days (also with train)

Note: bus lines on the map are not representative of the 10 simulated paths

A new “universal service” - exampleIdeas for the future of the industry

Page 27: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

27

CONTENTS

Ideas for a future of the industry

Carachteristics of LD coach transport

Conclusions

Long distance coach transport in Italy

Page 28: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

28

Inside the industry and towards the outsideConclusions

Coach transport will face significant changes in regulation inside and outside the industry. Starting from a deeper knowledge of itself, significant opportunities for change will be at stake:

- Evolution inside the industry;

- Evolution towards other markets.

In order to do so, it needs to adopt adequate technological tools (e.g. yield management) and learn from what happened in other industries, especially air transport, and abroad.

Page 29: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

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Inside coach transport…Conclusions

Ideas:

1.Overcoming focus of firms over their historical catchment areas to better take advantage of the liberalisation:

Many small markets a unique (bigger) Italian market

2. As for operating costs: in this sector “medium-small is better”!

But for commercial aspects: useful to consolidate on bigger average dimensions (difficult for very small firms to make advanced marketing). Better using consortia, to avoid cost increase typical of bigger firms.

3. Unique internet website, where users can find the whole supply, to be perceived as a unique network as for air transport (even without delegating the commercial functions).

Page 30: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

30

… and towards the outside!Conclusions

Opportunity for completely rethink the concept of “universal service” (also because Italy needs to cut public expenses): ensure mobility all over the country, but not necessairly by train!

Example (but other outcomes are possible):

Subsidised trains (but even non subsidised!) relations with high demand and among major cities;

Coaches long relations with low demand, with polarised and dispersed demand (e.g. north-south) and to improve geographical coverage;

Busses medium-short relations with low demand;

Airplanes social (subsidised) fares on some long relations.

Page 31: Paolo Beria, Raffaele Grimaldi, Antonio Laurino Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione

Brussels , 29 February 2012

The Italian intercity market modelIRU Bus and Coach Workshop

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Thank you for your attention!!!

[email protected]

[email protected]