panel discussion: pbee practice and needs paul somerville, urs joe maffei, r&c ron hamburger,...
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Panel Discussion: PBEE Practice and Needs
Paul Somerville, URSJoe Maffei, R&C
Ron Hamburger, SGHLloyd Cluff, PG&E
Tom Shantz, CaltransJim Malley, Degenkolb
Overview – Jim Malley Many significant accomplishments in
multiple areas PBEE methodology, becomes foundation for
application specific tasks Non-ductile concrete advances Ground motion work, especially NGA Procedure for quantifying system
performance (ATC-63) Lifelines, bridges and systems analysis
applications Life beyond NSF looks bright!
Earthquake Ground Motion
Paul Somerville
Lack of suitable recorded time histories for seismic design in the Western U.S.
Complexity of damage patterns and the challenge of urban seismic zonation
Lack of suitable recorded time histories for seismic design
The fine work of the PEER NGA Program notwithstanding, design earthquakes in most parts of the Western United States are from larger earthquakes and/or closer distances than are represented in the NGA data base
Earthquake science is being applied to fill this gap, e.g. in the Tall Bldgs Initiative
We do not have recorded time histories for the design earthquake in most parts of the western United States.
We need to rely on simulated time histories like those below.
Complexity of Damage Patterns - the Challenge of Urban Seismic Zonation
Damage is often not simply related to surface geology – the current code approach using Vs30 for soils leaves many unexplained effects
Very dense urban strong motion arrays (spacing < 1 km) combined with simulations are needed to advance our understanding of the blotchy nature of earthquake damage patterns
Northridge Earthquake Red tagged buildings occurred in clusters
The Sherman Oaks cluster is not understood
The Santa Monica and West LA cluster is related to the edge of the LA Basin formed by the Santa Monica fault
Earthquake Forecasting
Earthquake prediction (location, time and magnitude of a specific earthquake) is not currently possible, but
Earthquake forecasting (changes in likelihood of earthquakes over months to years) may soon become viable
How should engineering practice respond?
Earthquake forecast for Japan just before the 2000 Tottori earthquake
The forecast showed high probability for that earthquake (marked by the cross) and the 2004 Niigata Chuuetsu earthquake to the northeast
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STEEL GRAVITY
FRAMING
Collapse Prediction in Evaluation Guidelines
Performance EvaluationApproach
Joe’s
Beer!Beer!Food!Food!
Beer!Beer!Food!Food!
Joe’s
Beer!Beer!Food!Food!
Joe’s
Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research CenterJune 13, 2007San Francisco
Summative Meeting Panel Discussion:PBEE Practice and Needs
Lloyd S. CluffPacific Gas and Electric Company
Director, Earthquake Risk ManagementGeosciences Department
Perspectives on 10 years of Earthquake Engineering ResearchPEER
Perspectives
Strategy to establish PEER 1995-96 Role of California Seismic Safety Commission Role of Pacific Gas and Electric Company Lifelines component of PEER User needs-driven research agenda Public/Private/Partnerships (PPP) Leveraged funding
Accomplishments and Future DirectionsAccomplishments Leveraged funding
PPP (PG&E, Caltrans, CEC, FEMA, BART) 1996 – 2007 ~$12.5 million Implementation of research results
Useful research results that can be implemented Managing earthquake risks
Improve system performance
Future Directions Lifeline interdependencies during earthquakes
Highways and bridges/Power utilities/Water supply System performance
Individual lifelines Lifeline groups