pakistan stretegic culture
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SAND 2014-1749P Unlimited Release
April 2014
Pakistans Strategic Culture: Formulation
of Counterterrorism Policy
Dr. Muhammad Tehsin
Assistant Professor
Quaid-I-Azam University
Islamabad, Pakistan
Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper
Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
Pakistans Strategic Culture
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Pakistans Strategic Culture: Formulation
of Counterterrorism Policy
Abstract
The Islamist attack on the twin towers changed the world, but Pakistans strategic culture did not
change. President Musharraf publicly withdrew support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, and
declared discontinuation of cross-border infiltration in Indian-held Kashmir. In reality, support
continued to certain sections of the Afghan Taliban, and acts of terrorism in India, exemplified
the facetious transformation in strategic culture. The confusion in stance left a void in strategic
culture and the strategic environment. Pakistans strategy of sub-conventional warfare has led to
a backlash inside the country, in the form of Islamist subversion of the rule of law. The failure of
the state to formulate a coherent counterterrorism policy has given way to non-state actors. This
policy void has endangered the countrys national identity and territorial integrity. In the absence
of such a policy, Islamism festers. Resultantly, the state is faced with an Islamist take over. This
has consequences for regional and global stability as well as nuclear security. Pakistan should
formulate counterterrorism policy, transform strategic culture, and seek connectivity with the rest
of the world to overcome the threat of Islamism.
Pakistans Strategic Culture
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The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reflect on the position of their respective institutions
or Sandia National Laboratories.
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Contents
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................................. 5
ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................................ 9
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 10
1. PROBLEM STATEMENT........................................................................................................................... 13
2. PAKISTANS STRATEGIC CULTURE .................................................................................................... 16 2.1. WHAT IS STRATEGIC CULTURE ............................................................................................................. 16 2.2. SHIFTS IN PAKISTANS STRATEGIC CULTURE ......................................................................................... 18 2.3. IMPACT OF STRATEGIC CULTURE ON COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY ...................................................... 19
3. ANALYSIS OF THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ................................................................................... 21 3.1. TAKEOVER BY ISLAMISTS: LEAST LIKELY/LEAST DESIRABLE SCENARIO .............................................. 22 3.2. AMBIGUITY TOWARD ISLAMISTS: MORE LIKELY/LESS DESIRABLE SCENARIO ...................................... 24 3.3. DEFEAT OF ISLAMISTS: LESS LIKELY/MOST DESIRABLE SCENARIO ...................................................... 26
4. COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY TO ACHIEVE THE MOST DESIRABLE SCENARIO .............. 28 4.1. MILITARY OPERATIONS WITH A LIGHT FOOTPRINT ................................................................................ 28 4.2. ROLE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ................................................................................................... 28 4.3. PREVENTING SECTARIANIZATION OF IDENTITY ..................................................................................... 29
5. FORMULATION OF COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY: PERSPECTIVES FOR STRATEGIC CULTURE ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 5.1. FOCUS ON INTERNAL SECURITY ............................................................................................................ 30 5.2. CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS ................................................................................................................. 31 5.3. INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIVITY ........................................................................................................... 31
6. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................. 33
APPENDIX A: A MIGRANT STATE .................................................................................................................... 36
ABOUT THE AUTHOR ........................................................................................................................................... 38
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Figures
Figure 1: Map of Pakistans Sectarian Violence (Reuters) .......................................................................................... 15 Figure 2: Strategic Culture ........................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3: Three mindsets and the overlaps .................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 4: Trends of Sectarian Violence (www.san-pips.com) ..................................................................................... 29 Figure 5: Pakistan - The Human Development Index .................................................................................................. 32
Tables Table 1: Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan in 2012 ............................................................................................................ 20
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Acronyms
ANP Awami National Party
APC All Parties Conference
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas
FC Frontier Corps
HDI Human Development Index
ISI Inter-Services Intelligence directorate
JSD Joint Strategic Directive
KPK Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province
NACTA National Counter Terrorism Authority
NADRA National Database and Registration Authority
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NWS Nuclear-Weapons State
PML (N) Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz
PPP Pakistan Peoples Party
PTI Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf
RAW Research and Analysis Wing
TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
UN United Nations
U.S. United States
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Pakistans Strategic Culture: Formulation
of Counterterrorism Policy
Executive Summary
Pakistan is at a tipping point