pakistan stretegic culture

SAND 2014-1749P Unlimited Release

April 2014

Pakistans Strategic Culture: Formulation

of Counterterrorism Policy

Dr. Muhammad Tehsin

Assistant Professor

Quaid-I-Azam University

Islamabad, Pakistan

Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper

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Pakistans Strategic Culture: Formulation

of Counterterrorism Policy

Abstract

The Islamist attack on the twin towers changed the world, but Pakistans strategic culture did not

change. President Musharraf publicly withdrew support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, and

declared discontinuation of cross-border infiltration in Indian-held Kashmir. In reality, support

continued to certain sections of the Afghan Taliban, and acts of terrorism in India, exemplified

the facetious transformation in strategic culture. The confusion in stance left a void in strategic

culture and the strategic environment. Pakistans strategy of sub-conventional warfare has led to

a backlash inside the country, in the form of Islamist subversion of the rule of law. The failure of

the state to formulate a coherent counterterrorism policy has given way to non-state actors. This

policy void has endangered the countrys national identity and territorial integrity. In the absence

of such a policy, Islamism festers. Resultantly, the state is faced with an Islamist take over. This

has consequences for regional and global stability as well as nuclear security. Pakistan should

formulate counterterrorism policy, transform strategic culture, and seek connectivity with the rest

of the world to overcome the threat of Islamism.

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The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and

do not necessarily reflect on the position of their respective institutions

or Sandia National Laboratories.

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Contents

ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................................. 5

ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................................ 9

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 10

1. PROBLEM STATEMENT........................................................................................................................... 13

2. PAKISTANS STRATEGIC CULTURE .................................................................................................... 16 2.1. WHAT IS STRATEGIC CULTURE ............................................................................................................. 16 2.2. SHIFTS IN PAKISTANS STRATEGIC CULTURE ......................................................................................... 18 2.3. IMPACT OF STRATEGIC CULTURE ON COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY ...................................................... 19

3. ANALYSIS OF THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ................................................................................... 21 3.1. TAKEOVER BY ISLAMISTS: LEAST LIKELY/LEAST DESIRABLE SCENARIO .............................................. 22 3.2. AMBIGUITY TOWARD ISLAMISTS: MORE LIKELY/LESS DESIRABLE SCENARIO ...................................... 24 3.3. DEFEAT OF ISLAMISTS: LESS LIKELY/MOST DESIRABLE SCENARIO ...................................................... 26

4. COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY TO ACHIEVE THE MOST DESIRABLE SCENARIO .............. 28 4.1. MILITARY OPERATIONS WITH A LIGHT FOOTPRINT ................................................................................ 28 4.2. ROLE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ................................................................................................... 28 4.3. PREVENTING SECTARIANIZATION OF IDENTITY ..................................................................................... 29

5. FORMULATION OF COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY: PERSPECTIVES FOR STRATEGIC CULTURE ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 5.1. FOCUS ON INTERNAL SECURITY ............................................................................................................ 30 5.2. CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS ................................................................................................................. 31 5.3. INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIVITY ........................................................................................................... 31

6. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................. 33

APPENDIX A: A MIGRANT STATE .................................................................................................................... 36

ABOUT THE AUTHOR ........................................................................................................................................... 38

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Figures

Figure 1: Map of Pakistans Sectarian Violence (Reuters) .......................................................................................... 15 Figure 2: Strategic Culture ........................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3: Three mindsets and the overlaps .................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 4: Trends of Sectarian Violence (www.san-pips.com) ..................................................................................... 29 Figure 5: Pakistan - The Human Development Index .................................................................................................. 32

Tables Table 1: Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan in 2012 ............................................................................................................ 20

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Acronyms

ANP Awami National Party

APC All Parties Conference

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

CIA Central Intelligence Agency

FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas

FC Frontier Corps

HDI Human Development Index

ISI Inter-Services Intelligence directorate

JSD Joint Strategic Directive

KPK Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province

NACTA National Counter Terrorism Authority

NADRA National Database and Registration Authority

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NWS Nuclear-Weapons State

PML (N) Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz

PPP Pakistan Peoples Party

PTI Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf

RAW Research and Analysis Wing

TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan

UN United Nations

U.S. United States

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Pakistans Strategic Culture: Formulation

of Counterterrorism Policy

Executive Summary

Pakistan is at a tipping point