pakistan stretegic culture

Download Pakistan Stretegic Culture

Post on 01-Feb-2016

218 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

help

TRANSCRIPT

  • SAND 2014-1749P Unlimited Release

    April 2014

    Pakistans Strategic Culture: Formulation

    of Counterterrorism Policy

    Dr. Muhammad Tehsin

    Assistant Professor

    Quaid-I-Azam University

    Islamabad, Pakistan

    Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper

    Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  • Pakistans Strategic Culture

    4

    NOTICE: This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States

    Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees,

    nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, make any warranty, express or implied,

    or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any

    information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represent that its use would not infringe

    privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade

    name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,

    recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their

    contractors or subcontractors. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect

    those of the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors.

    The Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories assists political and

    technical experts from around the world to acquire the technology-based tools they need to assess,

    design, analyze, and implement nonproliferation, arms control, and other cooperative security measures.

    As part of its mission, the CMC sponsors research on cooperative security and the role of technology.

    Reports of that work are provided through the Occasional Papers series. Research is conducted by

    Sandia staff, international technical experts, and visiting scholars. For additional information on the

    CMCs programs, visit the CMC home page on the World Wide Web at or write to:

    Cooperative Monitoring Center

    Sandia National Laboratories

    Mail Stop 1373

    Albuquerque, NM 87185-1373

    For specific information on this report contact:

    Adriane Littlefield at the above address.

    This report was prepared by Sandia National Laboratories

    Albuquerque, NM 87185 and Livermore, CA 94550

  • Pakistans Strategic Culture

    5

    Pakistans Strategic Culture: Formulation

    of Counterterrorism Policy

    Abstract

    The Islamist attack on the twin towers changed the world, but Pakistans strategic culture did not

    change. President Musharraf publicly withdrew support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, and

    declared discontinuation of cross-border infiltration in Indian-held Kashmir. In reality, support

    continued to certain sections of the Afghan Taliban, and acts of terrorism in India, exemplified

    the facetious transformation in strategic culture. The confusion in stance left a void in strategic

    culture and the strategic environment. Pakistans strategy of sub-conventional warfare has led to

    a backlash inside the country, in the form of Islamist subversion of the rule of law. The failure of

    the state to formulate a coherent counterterrorism policy has given way to non-state actors. This

    policy void has endangered the countrys national identity and territorial integrity. In the absence

    of such a policy, Islamism festers. Resultantly, the state is faced with an Islamist take over. This

    has consequences for regional and global stability as well as nuclear security. Pakistan should

    formulate counterterrorism policy, transform strategic culture, and seek connectivity with the rest

    of the world to overcome the threat of Islamism.

  • Pakistans Strategic Culture

    6

    The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and

    do not necessarily reflect on the position of their respective institutions

    or Sandia National Laboratories.

  • Pakistans Strategic Culture

    7

    Contents

    ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................................. 5

    ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................................ 9

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 10

    1. PROBLEM STATEMENT........................................................................................................................... 13

    2. PAKISTANS STRATEGIC CULTURE .................................................................................................... 16 2.1. WHAT IS STRATEGIC CULTURE ............................................................................................................. 16 2.2. SHIFTS IN PAKISTANS STRATEGIC CULTURE ......................................................................................... 18 2.3. IMPACT OF STRATEGIC CULTURE ON COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY ...................................................... 19

    3. ANALYSIS OF THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ................................................................................... 21 3.1. TAKEOVER BY ISLAMISTS: LEAST LIKELY/LEAST DESIRABLE SCENARIO .............................................. 22 3.2. AMBIGUITY TOWARD ISLAMISTS: MORE LIKELY/LESS DESIRABLE SCENARIO ...................................... 24 3.3. DEFEAT OF ISLAMISTS: LESS LIKELY/MOST DESIRABLE SCENARIO ...................................................... 26

    4. COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY TO ACHIEVE THE MOST DESIRABLE SCENARIO .............. 28 4.1. MILITARY OPERATIONS WITH A LIGHT FOOTPRINT ................................................................................ 28 4.2. ROLE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ................................................................................................... 28 4.3. PREVENTING SECTARIANIZATION OF IDENTITY ..................................................................................... 29

    5. FORMULATION OF COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY: PERSPECTIVES FOR STRATEGIC CULTURE ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 5.1. FOCUS ON INTERNAL SECURITY ............................................................................................................ 30 5.2. CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS ................................................................................................................. 31 5.3. INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIVITY ........................................................................................................... 31

    6. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................................. 33

    APPENDIX A: A MIGRANT STATE .................................................................................................................... 36

    ABOUT THE AUTHOR ........................................................................................................................................... 38

  • Pakistans Strategic Culture

    8

    Figures

    Figure 1: Map of Pakistans Sectarian Violence (Reuters) .......................................................................................... 15 Figure 2: Strategic Culture ........................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3: Three mindsets and the overlaps .................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 4: Trends of Sectarian Violence (www.san-pips.com) ..................................................................................... 29 Figure 5: Pakistan - The Human Development Index .................................................................................................. 32

    Tables Table 1: Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan in 2012 ............................................................................................................ 20

  • Pakistans Strategic Culture

    9

    Acronyms

    ANP Awami National Party

    APC All Parties Conference

    ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

    CIA Central Intelligence Agency

    FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas

    FC Frontier Corps

    HDI Human Development Index

    ISI Inter-Services Intelligence directorate

    JSD Joint Strategic Directive

    KPK Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province

    NACTA National Counter Terrorism Authority

    NADRA National Database and Registration Authority

    NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

    NWS Nuclear-Weapons State

    PML (N) Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz

    PPP Pakistan Peoples Party

    PTI Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf

    RAW Research and Analysis Wing

    TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan

    UN United Nations

    U.S. United States

  • Pakistans Strategic Culture

    10

    Pakistans Strategic Culture: Formulation

    of Counterterrorism Policy

    Executive Summary

    Pakistan is at a tipping point