Pakistan at Global Warming of 1.5-2°C: Capturing Opportunities and Managing Challenges

8 Jan 2019, Dubai

Outline

• The Emerging Threat of Climate Change

• About PEER

• A Glimpse of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming

• Event Highlights

• Key Uptakes

The Emerging Threat of Climate Change

The current pace of global average temperature rise puts approximately half of all plants and animals at risk of extinction (WWF)

Average sea level is expected to rise 1 to 6 feet before the end of this century. (NASA)

The pre-industrial concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 280 parts per million (ppm). As of April 2018, the concentration is 407 ppm. (NASA)

The amount of carbon dioxide is higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years. (NASA)

An average of 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced since 2008 due to climate changed-related weather hazards. (UNHCR)

The number of people exposed to flooding each year is at risk of tripling from 21 million to 54 million by 2030. (Word Resources Institute)

Cycle 4 of PEER titled ‘Understanding our Joint Water-Climate Change Challenge & Exploring Policy Options for Cooperation on the Afghan-Pak Transboundary Kabul River Basin’ aims:

Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research (PEER) – Cycle 4

Scientifically analyze the implications of climate change on the Kabul

River Basin

Explore avenues of collaboration to share the

benefits of Kabul River Basin mutually

Devise an integrated basin wide approach for

decision-makers + =

Scientific

I. Mapping the current status of surface water availability and river flow in the transboundary Kabul River Basin; including future demands and consumption

II. Studying the projected impact of climate change on the Kabul River Basin waters through changes in glacial melt, snow melt, rainfall and temperature

Development

I. Exploring possible avenues of cooperation and mutually beneficial uses for both Afghanistan and Pakistan policy makers, based on the concept of benefit sharing on the transboundary waters of Kabul River basin.

II. Proposing an integrated basin wide approach to guide policy making in the management, governance and development of the transboundary river

Objectives

A Glimpse of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming

• In October 2018, IPCC released a Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5-2°C

• The report highlighted the implications of a warmer world, drawing a statistical comparison of the extent of damage between 1.5 and 2°C of warming

• LEAD translated the scientific findings into a visual infographic in order to enhance its impact amongst key stakeholders

Event Highlights

Key policymakers, researchers, diplomats, industry experts and civil society members participated in the national consultation.

The two moderated sessions focused on the implications of global warming on Pakistan and reflections by development partners

“There are only 12 years before the Earth enters into an irreversible phase” - Malik Amin Aslam (Advisor to the PM on Climate Change)

“Northern areas face higher warming than southern areas, thus rising glacial melt and snow precipitation is expected to increase floods in the basins...joint watershed management and expansion of hydrological networks is vital to mitigate the threat of floods” – Zia Hashmi (GCISC)

“The decision making window is limited to the next 2 to 3 years, or else it will be too late” – Melinda Good (World Bank)

“There is complete absence of any legal framework for collaborative management for the Kabul River basin. The mechanism for devising this framework needs to be done through diplomatic channels” – Ashfaq Mehmood (Former Federal Secretary)

Key Uptakes

• National pledges are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5˚C

• There is a dire need to integrate climate change in all agendas – be it transport, infrastructure, energy production – keeping in view Pakistan’s extreme vulnerability.

• Due to the phenomenon of Elevation Dependent Warming, the northern areas of Pakistan will face higher warming up to 0.5o C, resulting in higher rates of glacial and snow melt, leading to increased risk of flooding.

• As agriculture is dependent on water, and it forms the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, the water-food nexus must be considered in policy formulation.

• Enhanced research and comprehensive consultation processes are required to competently address this impending crisis, and formulate pragmatic solutions.

Thank you!