Ozone production and its sensitivity to emissionsAn overview of the work conducted at LISAIsabelle Coll and Fanny Lasry

Analysis of the factors influencing O3 productionIsabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA) Constitution of an optimized model configuration throughThe simulation of episodes with various chemical and dynamical inputsThe generation of validation indices of model-measurement comparisonA detailed analysis of the simulation resultsThe observation of ozone formation on the ESCOMPTE domain troughThe identification of the location of destruction and production areasThe simulation of specific dynamical periods : which effect on ozone formation ?Following ozone production along the VOC decomposition pathways (prospective : to be conducted)Where and when do VOC species and families produce ozone?Which VOCs are most involved in fast ozone production rates? in ozone peaks?Which VOCs most participate in regional ozone export?Which link with ozone control policies?

At ground level on ESCOMPTE IOPsOzone production rates up to 45ppbv/hIdentification of photochemically active air masses and inert ozone plumesPossible to identify geographical/quantitative trends in the ozone ozone formation relationship ?Large variability of the PO3 plume shape, extent and intensity from one day to another => statistical analysisfrom one period to another => effect of dynamics or effect of emissions ?07/0812/08

Identification of ozone chemical regimesGreater consistencyProblem of the intermediate zone

Following PO3 along VOC degradationIdea : to bring information on the participation of each VOC species/family to ozone production by marking primary and secondary species evolutionTracers of VOC degradation => information on Number of VOC molecules degraded at each locationTransport and degradation of secondary species

Statistic analysis of their participation in high PO3The results expected from these studies should bring a better understanding of the development of regional ozone episodes in relation with precursor emissions.

Simulation of scenarios of emission reduction Isabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA), S. Fayet (AIRMARAIX)J.L. Ponche (LPCA), S. Cautenet, J. Arteta (LaMP), R. Vautard (LMD)The project PRIMEQUAL 2 PREDIT Scenariosinfluence of realistic strategies and arbitrary scenarios of reduction of the emissions, over various durations, in order to constitute a tool for the evaluation of environmental policies questions are centered around the combination of actions to be conducted in order to respect current and future european ozone thresholds How to avoid ozone pollution peaks?Which realistic emission modifications can be proposed to reduce ozone background pollution? Traffic modulationsEvolutions of the road networkEmergency actionsModifications pf NMVOC emission specificationsRduction of punctual NOx emissionsConsequence of the new European legislationLocal decisions to reduce air pollution

Sc 0 ARfrence (2001 et 2003) hors MUScnario de rfrence (hors MU) . Projections 2001 et 2003 .Validation modle + RfrenceSc 0 BRfrence 2003 avec MUScnario de rfrence (avec MU) - Projection 2003 en tenant compte restrictions prises suite MU.Validation modle + RfrenceSc 1Tendanciel 2010Scnario tendanciel 2010 : Projection 2010 "au fil de l'eau" (prolongement des volutions en cours).Que se passerait-il en 2010 si aucune mesure n'tait prise ?Sc 2 A"OPTINEC" 2010Scnario OPTINEC 2010 (CITEPA, MJ Oct.2004) : il s'agit du scnario national 2010 "raliste" calcul par le CITEPAQue se passerait-il en 2010 en considrant la rglementation engage (situation nationale probable)?Sc 2 BNEC 2010Scnario NEC 2010 : Respect de la directive NEC. Il s'agit du scnario national 2010 "rglementaire".Que se passerait-il en 2010 si la France respecte la directive NEC?Sc 3Raliste 2010Scnario 2 A + particularits rgionalesQue se passerait-il en 2010 en considrant la rglementation engage(situation nationale probable + situation rgionale probable)?Sc 4 AMU oprationnelles 20102010 / mesures d'urgence (MU) en vigueur t 2004Effet des MU en vigueur t 2004 > projection 2010?Sc 5 AMUcomplmentaires20102010 / mesures d'urgence (MU) complmentairesEffet de MU complmentaires > projection 2010?Sc 4 BMU oprationnelles 2001-20032001-2003 / mesures d'urgence (MU) en vigueur t 2004Effet des MU en vigueur t 2004 sur les pisodes de pollution 2001-2003?Sc 5 BMU complmentaires 2001-20032001-2003 / mesures d'urgence (MU) complmentairesEffet des MU complmentaires sur les pisodes de pollution 2001-2003?

Scientific objectivesTo establish a link between ozone and its chemical precusorsin order to identify and quantify the chemical factors most involved in the development of photochemical pollutionWhat are the responses of ozone to the emissions of its precursors (NOx, the globallity of the VOCs, each VOC individually)? How to quantify it?Is there a variability of the ozone responses to emissions according to the type of meteorological situation? How to determine it? Which category(ies) of emitter(s) do(es) mostly participate in ozone production?To establish a map of these relationshipsthis will allow the geographical analysis of the efficiency of emission reduction scenariosTo quantify the impact of ozone control policies on several time scalesWhat is the efficiency of the legislations for the year 2010? On ozone episodes / long term efficiency ?Impacy on ozone peaks, 8h-mean ozone concentrations, background pollution

The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE contribution

Simulations conducted on ~30 days on the ESCOMPTE domain representative of various and contrasted pollution events - IOP2, 3, 4 and 1-16 august 2003The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE strategy

Precursors to play on ?Expected effects ?Difference with the reference

Location of the impacts of anthropogenic activities

Effect of ozone threshold exceedances : Road traffic and industrial emission = - 40%Ozone max10/08/03Ozone max12/08/03

Regulation seems to be efficientNecessary to test it over a long periodFirst guess : persistence of measures over several daysEmission scenarios : projection to year 2010Anyway => necessary to add supplementary measures

Spatial analysis of VOC influenceGeographical scale of impact of emission reductionInfluence on the redistribution of urban and regional ozone maxima and meansStudy of the evolution of pollutants in the urban and industrial plumesEvaluation and proposal of efficient emission reduction policiesStudy of the influence of emission reductions on background pollution (long term study) Statistical evaluation of the impact of new regulations on air qualityThe PRIMEQUAL Scenario project Expected results