overview of recent public opinion in anne arundel county and 2010 elections by dan nataf, ph.d....
TRANSCRIPT
Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County
and 2010 Elections
By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community CollegeMarch 30, 2011
Topics
1. Recent CSLI survey results – March 7-10
2. Election results from 2010 – affecting Anne Arundel County
Overview of Survey Process
•CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service at Anne Arundel Community College
•Operating since 1978
•Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged learning, community outreach
• Main activity – public interest surveys
oRespondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers
oTypical sample size: 400-900 respondents; students used as interviewers
o Topics – wide ranging, economy, transportation, land use/growth, taxes/spending, schools…
• Last survey – March 7-10, 2011 – focus on this presentation• www2.aacc.edu/csli
• since 1978
Polling Results for AA CountyRemarkable stability in right/wrong direction…
Sp '99
Fa '99
Sp '00
Fa '00
Sp '01
Fa '01
Sp '02
Fa '02
Sp '03
Fa '03
Sp '04
Fa '04
Sp '05
Fa '05
Sp '06
Fa '06
Sp '07
Fa '07
Sp '08
Fa '08
Sp '09
Fa '09
Sp '10
Fa '10
Sp '11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
5754
5855
62
66
60 61 62
51
58 58
53
5755
51 52 51 5052
47
52 5249 50
23
2725 24 23
15
26
21
25
3431
24
2927 26
2927
33 32 3128 27 28 28 28
20 1917
20
15
19
14
18
1315
12
19 1816
1820 21
16 17 17
25
21 2023 22
RightWrongUnsure
Fall
'04
Spri
ng '05
Fall
'05
Spri
ng '06
Fall
'06
Spri
ng '07
Fall
'07
Spri
ng '08
Fall
'08
Spri
ng
'09
Fall
'09
Spri
ng '10
Fall
'10
Sp '11
Mean
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
8 7 7
15
712
8
23
38
48
3336 36 36
22.4285714285714
14
18
22
16
21
16 16
129
5 5 52
4
11.785714285714311.21428571428578.64285714285713
Economy /Housing Taxes – too high
Growth /development Education /
Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs
AA County Polling Results: Most Important Problem - Fall '04 to Spring '11
Economy – top concern with no recent changes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4648
44 45
49
2730 31 32
35
5
11 11 11 11
Maryland improves by 8%
Anne Arundel County
USA
AA County Polling Results: Rate the Economy
Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since March 2009
AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35% better
S'02
F '02
S '03
F '03
S '04
F '04
S '05
F '05
S '06
F '06
S '07
F '07
S '08
F '08
S '09
F '09
S '10
F '10
S '11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
38
26 2722
34 3431 28
3842
32
27
17
5 510 11 11 13
7476
56 56
62
74 74 71 7471 71
69
55
49 46 4844 45
49
CSLI – Anne Arundel County
Gallup – National Polling for USA
01020304050607080
11 6
35
15
71
4
3024
75
6
51
2924
70
8
4633
19
56
7
47
3221
60
7
4434
20
52
9
4735
Economic Conditions - % saying 'applies' - specific items
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11
AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’
Little change except for fewer losses in stocks/retirement accounts
The economy: what else applies?
Unabl
e to
find
affor
dabl
e ho
usin
g
Wag
es o
r sal
arie
s ar
e no
t risi
ng a
s fa
st a
s the
cost
of l
ivin
g
Hard
to a
fford
the
cost
of t
rans
porta
tion
Hard
to a
fford
the
cost
of u
tiliti
es su
ch a
s el
ectrici
ty o
r gas
Taxes
are
too
high
in re
latio
n to
gov
ernm
ent s
ervice
s pro
vide
d0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
21
56
40
61
11
59
32
50
58
12
55
21
5359
13
55
17
42
59
15
56
21
44
63
10
56
24
43
60
14
63
4146
63
S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11
Big jump in transportation costs
Condition Fall2005
Spring2011
Balancing the county budget (less spending, more revenues)
0 18
Providing enough jobs 8 16Providing enough skills/training or otherwise improving education/schools
11 12
Managing growth/development 27 8Having enough infrastructure, roads, transportation 3 7All other answers 51 39Total 100 100
Biggest Economic Challenge Facing the County – Items Mentioned in 2005 and 2011
Budget and jobs rise in importance
Perceptions of Decreases in Government Services
Answer Percentage
Yes 26No 70
Don’t know, no answer
5
Total 101
Services mentioned Cases PercentageRoads 39 24
Schools/teachers 31 19
Library 24 15
College tuition 12 7
Fire 10 6
Seniors services 10 6Jobs/furloughs/pay cuts
106
Police 9 6
Staffing 7 4
Child services 6 4
MVA 3 2
Mental health 2 1
Total 163 100
Most don’t see an impact from govt. belt-tightening
12
Issue Support Oppose Unsure
Imposing an additional fine of up to $1500 on drivers caught drunk driving 86 13 1
Permitting the use of off-shore wind power near Ocean City 80 10 10
Increasing the alcohol tax 68 29 3
Permitting the purchase of marijuana for medical purposes 65 29 7Taking away drivers’ licenses from those who refuse to pay taxes 64 32 3
Increasing the use of cameras to ticket those running red lights 59 41 4
Making same sex marriages legal in Maryland 47 46 7Making preparations to implement President Obama’s health care reform law 43 50 8
Limiting the use of binding arbitration when the county negotiates with public safety unions 35 42 23
Allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college 33 63 4
Increasing university tuition to maintain the quality of higher education 32 66 2
Reducing the pension and retiree health benefits of state workers 28 65 7
Promising state workers no furlough days, and providing them with a $750 bonus 25 59 16
Increasing the county income tax to the maximum allowed by law to avoid cuts in essential services 25 68 7
Increasing the gasoline tax to bolster the transportation trust fund 17 80 3
State and County Issues
SupportSocial Category %Party p=.01Democrat 57Unaffiliated 48Republican 35Ideology p=.01Liberal 81Moderate 53Conservative 22Religion p=.01None/Non-practicing 75Jewish 71Spiritual but not part of organized religion
64
Other 46Catholic 43Protestant 40Some other Christian 38Evangelical 30Marital Status p=01.Single 66Married 45Gender p=.3Female 51Male 44
Age p=.0718-30 5331-40 5141-50 5151-60 5361+ 37Race p=.3Black 30White 49Other (including Hispanic, Asian and unspecified ‘other’)
50
Demographics/Same Sex Marriage% saying “Support”
Yes No Unsure/N.A.
Total
President Obama’s state of the union speech? 72 28 1 101
Governor O’Malley’s inaugural speech or his state of the state speech
41 58 1 100
Watched County Council hearings being broadcast on local cable stations anytime over the last year?
19 80 1 100
Watched, listened or read about…
Estimates %Under $1 billion 4$1 billion to $500 billion
17
$501 to $999 billion 4$1-1.999 trillion 21$2-2.99 trillion 10$3-4.99 trillion 22$5-6 trillion 6Over $6 trillion 17Total 101
Estimations of Federal Budget
51% estimated
Estimates %
Under $1 billion 30$1-5.99 billion 26$6 to $10.99 billion
7
$11-15.99 billion 4$16-20.99 billion 5$21-30.99 billion 3$31-40 billion 1Over $40 billion 24Total 100
Estimates %
Under $5 million 22$5-50 million 18$51 to $100 million
10
$101-350 million 8$351-650 million 9$651-999 million 7$1-1.99 billion 14$2-2.99 billion 3$4-6.99 billion 4Over $7 billion 6Total 100
Estimations of County Budget31% estimated
Estimations of State Budget31% estimated
Fall '06
Spring '07
Fall '07
Spring '08
Fall '08
Spring '09
Fall '09
Spring '10
Fall '10
Spring '11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3934 35
2824
5347 47
4247
3733 32 30
25
6154
4743
47
CSLI Gallup
Presidential Job Approval: Recent Rise…
Presidential Job Approval: % approving of president’s job by party
2824
5347 47
4247
9 6
7972 69
6270
57
43
2517
24 251819
24
53 53 52
35
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Sp. '08 Fa. '08 Sp '09 Fa. '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '10
Overall
Democrats
Republicans
Indep
Bush Obama
2010 Elections
Statewide Races – AAC Results
‘06/’10
Govr Comptroller Atty Gen. Senate0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
43.3
5151.5
45.743.450.4
100
52.3
56.749
48.5
54.354.4
49.6
0
47.7
U.S.
Very little change in Governor or Comptroller outcomes
Mikulski improves
Gubernatorial Races – Anne Arundel County
Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
66972
-2254
-28743-20788
-53215
-27581
-21963
Dem – Rep Vote for GovernorSchaeffer 83%Mooney 17%
Schaeffer 49%Shepard 51%
Glendening 40%Sauerbrey 60%
Glendening 43%Sauerbrey 57%
KK Townsend 35%Ehrlich 65%
O’Malley 42%Ehrlich 57%
O’Malley 43%Ehrlich 54%
O’Malley on low end of typical Dem vote deficit
Statewide Races: O’Malley vs. Ehrlich for Governor 2006-2010
Nov. 2006
March 2010
October 11-14, 2010
Oct. 26-27
Nov. 2
Candidate ActualVote
All Categorie
s
Exclude some
All categorie
s
Exclude some
Exclude all
except voters
Exit Poll
Actual
Vote
O’Malley 42 35 43 29 32 42 46 43Ehrlich 56.9 47 57 40 45 59 51 54Gap 14.9 12 14 11 13 19 5 11Other -- 3 -- 2 -- -- 3 --Undecided -- -- -- 22 24 -- -- --Neither -- 5 -- 1 -- -- -- --Unsure -- 10 -- 5 -- -- -- --Total 100 100 99 101 101 100
Polls are in range, but with internal variation
State Senate in AAC (Districts 30,31,32,33)
STATE SENATOR 30 STATE SENATOR 31 STATE SENATOR 32 STATE SENATOR 330%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
54%50%
62%
45%46%50%
38%
55%51%
38%
60%
0%
49%
62%
40%
100%
Dem 2006Rep 2006Dem 2010Rep 2010
Dems experience lower percentages in all districts
Delegate Races in Districts 30,31,32,33: Dem-Rep
Gap
30 31 32 33a 33b
-35000
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
4982
-3341
10983
-5038
-2164
-3567
-32511
8825
-27514
-14492
Dem-Rep 2006
Dem-Rep 2010
Big Dem loss in 31 33b uncontested
33a only 1 Dem cand.
Loses in 32 – what’s the future for Dems there?
Race gets very close in 30
Senate and Delegate Minimum Winning Totals in Districts 30,31,32,33
Minimum winning vote Seats
District Senate Delegates
Senate Delegate
30 25253 22535 Dem D=1/R=2
31 25723 22436 Rep D=0/R=3
32 24762 18786 Dem D=3/R=0
33(a) 43466unconteste
d
18603 Rep D=0/R=2
33b 14623 D=0/R=1
District 31: State Senate Races:
2006-2010
2006: Walter Shandrowski 49.1%
Brian Simonaire 50.8%
2010: Ned Carey 37.8%
Brian Simonaire 62.1%
District 31 – 2006 vs. 2010 Delegate
Races
Democratic candidates can’t replicate 2006 results!
Candidate 2010: % Votes Candidate 2006: %
Votes
Chiappelli 11.8 12943 Cadden 17.0 17529
-4586
Towles 10.9 11968 Fleckenstein 16.1 16651
-4683
Ekert 10.8 11856 Reynolds 14.0 14452
-2596
Total 11.2 36767 15.7 48632
-1186
5
District 31: Demographic InfoToo many conservatives, not enough moderates
District 31: Issues and Conditions
Economic distress is high
Same
sex m
arria
ge
In-st
ate
tuiti
on fo
r ille
gal
Limit
Arbitr
atio
n - s
uppo
rt
Wag
es n
ot g
oing
up
Delay
s in
maj
or p
urch
ases
Utiliti
es cos
t
Trans
porta
tion
cost
Losse
s in
stoc
ks
Health
insu
ranc
e
Find
affor
dabl
e ho
usin
g
Forec
losu
re
Unem
ploy
men
t
Incr
ease
gas
tax
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
43
27 26
83
56 5653
42
36
20 1916
6
47
34 35
63
46 4641
51
35
149
2118
District 3 County
County Elections: Slots at Arundel MillsOpponents to the introduction of slot machines at Arundel Mills Mall are circulating a petition to put the county council’s decision to grant zoning needed for slots to referendum in November, potentially reversing the decision. Do you support or oppose this petition effort?Position March
’10Oct.‘10
Exit Poll
Actual Vote
Support 45 42 60 55.6Oppose 45 42 39 44.4Gap 0 0 21 11.2Unsure 7 16 -- --No answer 2 -- 1 --Total 99 100 100 100
Will you be voting for or against Question A on the November ballot? A "for" vote would approve the County Council's zoning decision permitting slots in the county, including at Arundel Mills and Laurel. An 'against' vote would leave the county without slots zoning at any location.
What happened to shift voter sentiment at last minute?
Question A: Election Day vs. Early Votingby Council District
1 2 3 4 5 6 70.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
51.1%
59.5%
65.0%
52.0%54.1% 54.8% 55.9%
61.3%
47.3%
54.5%54.8%
56.5%
Quest AEarly Votes
Harundale Lib
West County
Lib
SPark Lib Annap
Senior Ctr
Edgewa-ter Lib
Early voted at West County
Early voting a good predictor of election day votes
County Executive Vote 1994-2010
1994 1998 2002 2006 20100
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
5761563879
83305
9353397465
54899
87676 8945689613
85040
10486
RepDemOther
2716 23987 6151 392012425
Including Shay -1930
GAP
Only a few thousand votes separate Dem/Rep candidates
2010 County Exec Race Over
TimeNov. 2006
June 2010Online Poll
Sept.2010Onlin
ePoll
October 11-14, 2010
Oct. 26-27
Nov. 2
Candidate
ActualVote
All Categories
All Categories
All categories
Exclude some
Exclude all
except voters
Exit Poll
ActualVote
Johnson/Conti
49 30 (Owens)
23 (Conti)
28 21 24 37 39 44.0
Leopold 51 52/54 54 34 38 59 50 50.5Gap 2 22/31 26 13 14 22 11 6.5Other -- 15/16 10 2 3 -- -- 5.4Undecided
-- -- -- 32 35 -- -- --
Neither -- 4/7 9 2 -- -- 3 --Unsure -- -- -- 10 -- -- -- --Total 101/100 101 100 101 100 100Unlike Governor’s race, CE race much harder to predict –much tightening at the end…
Vote Composition: Exit Poll
Overall Dem Rep Unaffil.0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
44
72
12
4843
84
9
39
51
89
15
57
ContiO'MalleyWeathersbee
Conti lags among Dem voters but gains a bit among unaffiliated
Voter Composition continued: Exit Poll
Strg Dem Weak Dem Ind Dem Ind Rep Weak Rep Strg Rep0
20
40
60
80
100
120
81
64
31 29
19
4
95
75
50
2112
0
96
83 83
13
40
4
ContiO'MalleyWeathersbee
Conti lags among Dems, but gains among Reps
Vote by Ideology
Liberal Moderate Conservative0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
79
54
1016
41
8285
52
610
40
9494
59
136
42
87
ContiLeopoldO'MalleyEhrlichWeathersbeeGrannon
Conti lags among liberals but does a bit better with conservatives
County Exec.: How informed were
voters?
Series10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9
28
56 56
35
16
31
43 42
53
27
5
0 0
24
0
76
0
ContiLeopoldUndecided
Oct. 11-14
Oct. 11-14
Oct. 11-14
EXIT POLL
EXIT POLL
EXIT POLL
VERY In-formed
SOMEWHAT Informed
NOT VERY Informed
Voters seem informed by election
Leopold voters started and remained more informed
County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by Undecided/Don’t know (Oct. 11-14)
On this issue are you more favorable to Conti, Leopold or Shay?
Issue Conti Leopold
L-C Shay Undecided Don’t know
enough
Undec.+ don’t
know enough
Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall
10 17 7 1 27 4673
Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66
Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget
16 18 2 1 21 4465
Maintaining high ethical standards
17 17 0 3 24 3963
Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62
Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62
Making County government more efficient
12 29 17 2 21 3758
Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57
Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56
Having the right experience for the job
11 32 21 1 21 3556
Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55
Encouraging economic development
13 31 18 1 18 3755
Conti
Leopold L-C Shay Undecided Don’t know enough
U
Undecided/Don’tknow
enough
Having the right experience for the job
11 32 21 1 21 35 56
Encouraging economic development
13 31 18 1 18 37 55
Making County government more efficient
12 29 17 2 21 37 58
Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56
Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55
Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62
Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall
10 17 7 1 27 46 73
Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget
16 18 2 1 21 44 65
Maintaining high ethical standards
17 17 0 3 24 39 63
County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by those favoring Leopold over Conti (Oct. 11-14)
Issue Stands/Traits Most Shaping Choice for County Exec. (Exit Poll)
Issue/trait Overall Conti Leopold L-C
Balance budget 30 21 44 23Taxes 21 10 34 24Right experience 22 15 32 17Cost of living 14 7 23 16Strong leader 16 11 24 13Economy 33 31 43 12Crime 14 9 20 11Growth/devel. 15 12 18 6Familiar name 4 1 7 6Slots 10 8 12 4Constituent serv. 9 8 11 3Environment 15 17 11 -6Schools 21 26 19 -7Honesty 13 21 8 -13Right moral outlook
16 24 9-15
Party affiliation 28 38 22 -16
Conti bets on character and party
Leopold bets on experience and issues
Weathersbee vs. Bateman
Council District
Weathersbee ‘06
Weathersbee
‘10
Weathersbee
‘10-’06
Bateman‘10
W-B
1 57.3 54.3 -3 60.4 -6.12 55.3 52.8 -2.5 59.8 -7.03 48.8 43.6 -5.2 55.5 -11.94 58.2 56.4 -1.8 61.9 -5.55 49.2 46.7 -2.5 55.1 -8.46 62.0 58.6 -3.4 61.5 -2.97 51.8 45.7 -6.1 50.7 -5.0
Total54.7 51.2 -3.5
57.8 (up from 54% in ‘06) -6.7Weathersbee has losses in
districts 3 and 7 in 2010 and no gains in any district
Bateman increases votes from ‘06 and wins majority in all districts in 2010
Council Districts Party Registration
36% D, 41%R, 19%U
48%D, 31%R, 18%U
53%D, 29%R, 18%U
49%D, 32%R, 18%U42%D, 39%R, 19%U
37%D, 44%R, 20%U
47%D, 31%R, 18%U
Democratic Candidates by Council
District
CC1
CC2
CC3
CC4
CC5
CC6
CC7
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
49.2%
48.5%
35.7%
57.1%
42.8%
58.0%
43.8%
45.8%
42.8%
30.8%
51.9%
37.1%
51.7%
39.8%
47.4%
46.2%
35.0%
53.8%
38.7%
48.1%
39.9%
52.5%
45.5%
41.0%
59.5%
36.0%
53.1%
36.4%
51.7%
48.1%
41.7%
47.1%
36.6%
46.1%
37.6%
PartyReg
DemCC
Conti
Omalley
Obama
Benoit and Trumbauer exceed Dem registra-tion
Klosterman under-performs in district 2
Conti underperforms in district 6
Rudolph about aver-age in district 5
Meaningless party reg. in district 3
Majority Dem regis-tration in D1
Legislativ
e Districts
Questions to ponder:• 1. Can Democrats be successful countywide
and in ‘harder’ districts?
oBateman, Weathersbee • Quality of candidate• Quality of opponent• Quality of campaign• Impact of larger trends – national, statewide
• Changes in the composition of the electorate
• Saliency of issues
Questions to ponder:• 2. What is the future of District 31
Democratic seatsoDemocrats demoralized?oWill the 2010 results undermine
recruitment efforts?oWhat issues can Democrats successfully
use in the district?oWhat vulnerabilities do Democrats have
– on issues, in the composition of the electorate, in the recruitment of candidates?
Questions to ponder:• As chair of the AAC Dem Central
Committee…o Identify potential candidates, groom them earlyo Identify key issues within each districto Identify how changes in the composition of the
electorate might affect Dem candidateso Provide experience based campaign trainingo Conduct opposition research – identify Republican
vulnerabilities, develop key talking points, test ideas on focus groups, conduct polls
o Develop consistent outreach tools - a Democratic newsletter – online distribution, central location for all Dem events, solicit input from voters
o Ensure turnout – close elections imply narrow victories!
National Politics: Exit Poll re: House
Vote
• Party identification in 2010: Dem/Rep at 35%, 29% Ind. (vs. 39/32/29% in 2008)
• Defection slightly higher among Dems 7% vs 5% Reps
• Indep. vote sided strongly with Reps 56% not Dems 37% (vs. 41/52% in ‘08)
• Women equally split (48 D; 49% R) (vs. 56, 43% in 2008)
• Whites strongly Rep (60%) not Dem (37%) (vs. 55, 43% in 2008)
• Only those with little (57%) or postgrad ed (53%) favored Dems
Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls
National Politics: Exit Poll re: House
VoteDemographics of National House of Representatives
Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls
Vote by Age (08/10)
Dem ’08
Dem ‘10
Rep
18-29 18/12 66 55 42
30-44 29/24 52 46 50
45-64 37/43 50 45 53
65 and Older 16/21 45 38 59
Older voters worried about Medicare/Health care reform?
National Politics: House Vote
• Libs and Moderates favored Dems (90, 55%) but were too small (20, 38%) a part of electorate vs Cons. (42%) who massively favored Reps (84)
(2008: Lib 22; Moderate 44; Cons. 34%)
• Lost job – no effect(30%)? Yes (50 Dem; 46% Rep) No (45, 54%)
• Union member (17%): Yes (61 Dem; 37% Rep) No (43, 54%)
• 2008 Presidential Vote: Obama (45%) 84,14%; McCain (45%) 7,91%, Other (4%) 33, 58%
• Is vote support for Obama? Yes (23%) 96 Dem; 3% Rep; No (37%) 6, 92%, Not factor (38%), 52, 44%
National Politics: House Vote
How Congress is Handling its Job
Democrat
Republican
Strongly Approve (4%) 82 16Somewhat Approve (20%) 78 20Somewhat Disapprove (26%) 57 41Strongly Disapprove (48%) 19 77
What is your opinion of… Democr
at Republica
nDemocrats - favorable (44%) 91 8Republicans - favorable (41%) 11 88
Too many people strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing…
But unfavorable opinions are spread to both Dems and Reps
National Politics: House Vote
Opinion of Federal Government
Democrat
Republican
Enthusiastic (3%) 92 6Satisfied (21%) 79 18Dissatisfied (48%) 41 55Angry (25%) 14 83
Govt should do more ? Dem Rep
Yes, do more (38%) vs 51% in ’08 77 21
No, do less (56%) vs. 43% in ‘08 20 76
Govt. perceived as over-reaching…
With too many dissatisfied with federal govt.
National Politics: House Vote
How worried about economic conds.?
Dem Rep
Very Worried (49%) 30 68
Somewhat Worried (37%) 52 43
Not Too Worried (10%) 81 18Reversal of 2008 when those worried lined up behind Dems
Economic anxieties favor Reps..
Worried That Economic Crisis Will Hurt Your Family
Dem Rep
Very Worried (48%) 62 36
Somewhat Worried (33%) 52 47
Not Too Worried (13%) 33 63
Not Worried At All (5%) 40 56
National Politics: House Vote
Stimulus Policy has Dem Rep
Helped (32%) 86 13
Hurt (34%) 10 87
Made No Difference (31%) 39 57
Stimulus not perceived as having done enough…
While blaming Wall Street or Bush just wasn’t enough…
Who Do You Blame for Economic Problems?
Dem Rep
Wall Street (35%) 41 57
George W. Bush (29%) 83 15
Barack Obama (24%) 6 91
National Politics: House Vote
What Should Congress Do With New Health Care Law?
Dem Rep
Expand It (31%) 84 15
Leave It As Is (16%) 63 34
Repeal It (48%) 11 86
And probably viewed as a distraction from the prime concerns of most citizens…
Most Important Issue Facing Country Today
Democrat
Republican
Economy (63%) 43 54Health Care (18%) 51 47Illegal Immigration (8% 26 68War in Afghanistan (7%) 58 40
Health care reform was polarizing and insufficiently popular
National Politics: House Vote
Bush-Era Tax Cuts Should Be Continued For...
Dem Rep
All Americans (40%) 14 84
Families Under $250,000 (36%) 64 32
No One (15%) 75 22
Highest Priority for Next Congress
Dem Rep
Cutting Taxes (18%) 26 71
Reducing Deficit (40%) 32 65
Spending to Create Jobs (37%) 68 30
Republicans face contradictory pressures – reduce deficit vs. cutting taxes
Now policy direction lacks consensus…and is polarizing
National Politics: House Vote
U.S. War in Afghanistan Dem Rep
Approve (40%) 24 75
Disapprove (54%) 61 36
Should Same-Sex Marriages Be Legally Recognized?
Dem Rep
Yes (41%) 67 30
No (53%) 27 70
Dems disapprove of war in Afghanistan – losing the base?
While same sex marriage still troubled waters for Dems
Democratic Candidates by Council District
Obama
OMalley Conti DemCC Mean
Party Reg
Mean-Reg.
CC1 49.2 45.8 47.4 52.5 48.7 51.7 -3
CC2 48.5 42.8 46.2 45.5 45.7 48.1 -2.4
CC3 35.7 30.8 35 41 35.6 41.7 -6.1
CC4 57.1 51.9 53.8 59.5 55.6 47.1 8.5
CC5 42.8 37.1 38.7 36 38.6 36.6 2.1
CC6 58 51.7 48.1 53.1 52.7 46.1 6.6
CC7 43.8 39.8 39.9 36.4 40 37.6 2.4
District 3 underperforms!
Districts 4 and 6 overperform