outthinker speech to fortune gazelles growth summit
DESCRIPTION
This is the one-your keynote we delivered to 600 entrepreneurs in Las Vegas on October 22, 2013. It outlines the key insights for how Outthinkers outthink strategic challenges.TRANSCRIPT
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Gazelles Growth Summit
Las Vegas, NV
October 2013
Kaihan Krippendorff
www.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Ray Kroc
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Mohammad Yunus
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Tata
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Thomas Edison
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Betsy Johnson
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Richard Branson
Oprah Winfrey
Elizabeth Arden
Dhirubhai Ambani
Bill Gates Charles Revson
Henry Ford
Sōichirō Honda
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Martin Luther King, Jr.
Mother Teresa
Mahatma Gandhi
Nelson Mandela
Rosa Parks Mohammad Yunus
Margaret Thatcher
Benjamin Franklin
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Elon MuskCEO, Tesla Motors
Tom AdamsCEO, Rosetta Stone
Mark ZuckerbergCEO, Facebook
Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post
Robert Keane CEO, Vistaprint
Wayne GattinellaCEO, WebMD
Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab
Marissa MayerCEO, Yahoo
Larry PageCEO, Google
Mark VadonFounder, Blue Nile
Josh LinknerFounder, ePrize
Ann HandCEO, Project Frog
Susan LyneCEO, Gilt Groupe
Cory BookerMayor, Newark, NJ, USA
Jeff BezosFounder, Amazon.com
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
“First they ignore you,then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,then you win.”
Mohandas Gandhi
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not
consider, and will not respond effectively to.
The 4th Option®
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Go home
Wait
Climb the walls
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
How can we predictably create a 4th Option®?
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Two Standard Approaches
Follow proven rules or best practices
Rules
1. Alkdjfklsdlkj2. Asdlkfj bou3. Alsk boiuoidf4. Goibjhkal dgs5. Glijgbuu gds6. gljgoiud
Lay out options, apply data, arrive at the optimal option
Option narrowing
X
XX
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Choose leverage points others overlook
Dissect
Generate more potential strategies
Expand
Choose strategies competitors will not copy
Analyze
Build buy-in for your strategy
Sell
Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
URBN Revenue History$ Millions
Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
350 425 550
830 1,090
1,230
1,510
1,840 1,940
2,270 2,470
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
URBN Results
Industry
ANF**
URBN
5
5
13
Growth5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%)
14
12
20
Profitability 5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%)
* 5 years average as of October 2013** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalizationSource: Reuters
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
College students onlyUsed clothingArtists not managers in chargeManager freedomEvery store different…
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Position
Process
Physicalexperience
People
PlaceProduct
PromotionPrice
The 8Ps
0 – no difference
1 – 4 year difference
2 – 5+ year difference
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Survey
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
8P tool on www.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Alexandra Kosteniuk
How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?”
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory
Consciousness
Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad ???
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Survey
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory
Consciousness
Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Relative number of narratives chess players recognize:
Grand master Master Expert
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Europe & Americas –Fairy tales
Japan – Koan
India – Puranas
China – 36 stratagems
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Identifying Outthinkers
Value creation (TRS)
Revenue growth (CAGR)
(EBITDA)Profit margin
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Core Research
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Move Early to the Next Battleground22
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Move Early to the Next Battleground22
“I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which
only the government can.”
Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview)
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Move Early to the Next Battleground22
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Identify and move early to the next battleground.
Where is the next battleground?- Technological trends?- Social shifts?- Geographies?- Buying patterns?- Needs?
22Move Early to the Next Battleground
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net50
Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power.
Who would we like to coordinate?- Customers- Experts- Employees- Real estate- Regulators- Competitors- Driveways- …
Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Force a Two-Front Battle7
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Cloud providers
Cloud servicesRetail
“There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.”
- Jeff Bezos
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Traditional CPA firms
ProjectsResources (Accnts)
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Force a two-front battle7
Project your unique capability into a new area.
What is your unique advantage/ capability?
Into what new area could you project this?
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Environment
Employees
Community
Govern-ment /country
Share-holders
Customers
Be Good33
Corporation
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
33
59
Be Good
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
The Holstee Manifesto
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Adopt a strategy that Benefits others.
How can you profitably benefit key stakeholders that you are not now considering?
Be good33
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Create Something Out of Nothing32
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Create Something Out of Nothing32
Julie Pickens
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Ingvar Kamprad
Create Something Out of Nothing32
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Create Something Out of Nothing32
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Create Something Out of Nothing32
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Add a new piece the board.
What would you like to create/ add to the game?- New categories?- New occasions or needs?- New customers?- New suppliers?- New distributors?- New regulations?
Create something out of nothing32
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
How can you project into a new sector?
What can you create?
Where is the next battleground?
Who could you coordinate?
How can you be good?
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
“Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.”
Napoleon Bonaparte
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Make the impossible possible
Don’t build handsets
Risk of noWiFi
Customer Service toocostly
“Each of these looked like show
stoppers”
Motorola
Earlyadopter
s
No one provides service
David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
“It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.”
- Albert Einstein
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Ray Kroc
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Mohammad Yunus
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Ratan Tata
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Thomas Edison
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
Betsy Johnson
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
[email protected] www.kaihan.net @kaihan• Register for newsletter,
tools, videos• Work out your Fourth
Option®• Email me to get
presentation• Contact us at Outthinker
for more support
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net
2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net